The Dirty Faces game requires players to perform iterative reasoning in order to arrive at equilibrium play. The game is dominance solvable with a unique equilibrium when it is correctly specified. The particular payoff structure has significant implication on whether the reasoning process leads to equilibrium play. This paper illustrates that the traditional specification - as used by Weber (2001) - leads to multiple equilibria and the game loses its dominance solvability. We modify the payoff structure and restore uniqueness. The resulting game, which is dominance solvable, is implemented in an experiment to test the depth of iterative reasoning in humans. Our data analysis suggests that some deviation from equilibrium play is due to limited depth of iteration. Additionally, we find evidence that the lack of confidence in other players’ iterative abilities also induces deviations from equilibrium play. / Thesis (M.Ec.) -- School of Economics, 2007

This paper uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to examine the relative technical efficiency of the Washington State Ferry (WSF) routes operating in Puget Sound. This is the largest ferry system in the country. It is publicly operated and does not face direct competition from any other agency, public or private. Therefore whether or not the ferry routes operate efficiently is a natural question. DEA is being used increasingly for measuring technical efficiency in non-profit settings such as health care and education, where prices of inputs and outputs may either be unavailable or artificially set. Because DEA does not require prices to measure efficiency, the technique has an advantage in these arenas. This paper first uses DEA to measure the relative technical efficiency of each WSF route using two different comparison sets. Returns to scale are then evaluated for each route in three successive years (1995-1997). Finally, a Malmquist productivity index is calculated in order to evaluate total factor productivity over the three-year period. For further evaluation this index is then divided into two components: technical change and efficiency change. Overall, the findings show that most of the ferry routes operate in an efficient manner. The results do, however, show routes where there may be room for improvement and they provide a means to pinpointing areas where WSF may want to focus attention when making management decisions. / Graduation date: 2000

Using a panel data set on the local telecommunications companies reporting to the FCC for 1988-95, this paper investigates the subadditivity of the cost function, as well as technical and allocative inefficiency of the U.S. local telephone industry. The subadditivity test on the estimated translog cost function indicates that certain subdivisions of the monopolized regional markets between two hypothetical firms might lower total cost. However, the evidence is not as clear cut as in an earlier study by Shin and Ying (1992, RAND), with savings from a two-firm industry being negative on average over all possible two-firm output vector combinations. The results of the subadditivity test suggest that companies with a relatively high share of residential customers experience higher degrees of scale inefficiency. Specification of technical inefficiency as fixed company-specific effects results in a different efficiency ranking than the specification with random effects. The estimation results for the generalized (non-minimum) cost model suggest that capital is being under-employed relative to residual inputs. This finding does not support the theoretical prediction that an industry under rate of return regulation tends to over-employ capital relative to other inputs. The subadditivity test for the generalized cost function that accounts for technical and allocative inefficiency generated a much more favorable estimates of cost reductions from the subdivision of the monopolized markets than the test on the conventional specification of the cost function. The estimated losses from technical, allocative and scale inefficiency reflect potential gains from competition. / Graduation date: 1999

The thesis contains two chapters which address questions important both for the economic theory and applications. In Chapter I we show that inequalities are an important tool in the theory of production functions. Various notions of internal economies of scale can be equivalently expressed in terms of upper or lower bounds on production functions. In the problem of aggregation of efficiently allocated goods, if one is concerned with two-sided bounds as opposed to exact expressions, the aggregate production function can be derived from some general assumptions about production units subject to aggregation. The approach used does not require smoothness or convexity properties. In Chapter II we introduce a new forecasting techniques essential parts of which include using average high-order polynomial estimators for in-sample fit and low-order polynomial extension for out-of-sample fit. We provide some statements following the Gauss-Markov theorem format. The empirical part shows that algebraic polynomials treated in a proper way can perform very well in one-step-ahead prediction, especially in prediction of the direction of exchange rate movements. / Graduation date: 1995

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This study initially presents historical trends in both the capitalized value and market value of farmland in the eight states comprising the Corn Belt and Lake States production regions as defined by the USDA. An econometric analysis of annual real cash rents per acre prior to determining the capitalized value of farmland in the eight states is then conducted. Two distributed lag models were hypothesized. The comparison of regression results of these two distributed lag models indicates that current year real cash rent can be best explained by current year real net farm income, lagged real net farm income over a period of years, and real cash rent in the previous year. A spreadsheet simulation model is used to project capitalized farmland values in each state as well as regional averages over the 2012-2015 period. These projections reflect alternative assumptions regarding future trends in real net farm income at the state level as well as the rate on 10-year constant maturity U.S. government bonds to assess the potential sensitivity of capitalized farmland values under adverse economic conditions. The projected trends in capitalized farmland values under two alternative stress scenarios reflecting higher interest rates levels and lower net farm income levels indicates that capitalized farmland values are particularly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations since cash rent expectations of landlords are based on current and lagged historical profit performance.

The U.S. sheep industry has been declining in size for many years. Many factors have contributed to the decline of the sheep industry including declining consumption of lamb and mutton, the growth in manmade fiber use, scarcity of labor, and predator losses. In an effort to slow the rate of decline in the U.S. sheep industry, the U.S. Congress passed the Wool Act of 1954. In 1993, Congress passed a three-year phase out of the Wool Act incentive payments with the last payments occurring in 1996. The 2002 Farm Bill included a marketing loan program for wool. The loan rates are set to $0.40 per pound for un-graded wool, $1.00 per pound for graded wool. In recent years exchange rate changes have had a large impact on the industry affecting lamb and wool trade. The U.S. is the second largest producer of mohair and Texas accounts for over 85 percent of the U.S. mohair production. Mohair also received incentive payments through the Wool Act. Mohair payments were also phased out along with the wool incentive payments. Moreover, the 2002 Farm Bill reinstated support for the industry by implementing a loan program with loan rates of $4.20 per pound of mohair. This analysis uses capital stock inventory accounting methodology to model the supply side of the sheep industry. Demand is incorporated using traditional single equations and complete demand system estimation methods. OLS, 2SLS, and 3SLS models are developed and tested for the single equations estimation methods. The OLS model is used to model the impacts of three different levels of loan rates for wool. Also, an OLS mohair model is developed and used to examine the impacts of three different levels of loan rates for mohair. Results indicate that the sheep industry will continue to decline even with the marketing loan program for wool in the 2002 Farm Bill. However, a higher loan rate for wool would reduce the decline rate of the industry. The Angora goat industry will continue to decline in size, but with a higher loan rate for mohair, the number of goats clipped would increase.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, Riverside, 2008. Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, Riverside, 2009. / Includes abstract. Title from first page of PDF file (viewed February 3, 2009). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Includes bibliographical references (p. 135-137). Includes bibliographical references (leaves ). Also issued in print.

published_or_final_version / Economics and Finance / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

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