The relationship between population changes and economic growth has been debated since Malthus. Initially focusing on population growth, the notion of demographic dividend has shifted the attention to changes in age structures with an assumed window of opportunity that opens when falling birth rates lead to a relatively higher proportion of the working-age population. This has become the dominant paradigm in the field of population and development, and an advocacy tool for highlighting the benefits of family planning and fertility decline. While this view acknowledges that the dividend can only be realized if associated with investments in human capital, its causal trigger is still seen in exogenous fertility decline. In contrast, unified growth theory has established human capital as a trigger of both demographic transition and economic growth. We assess the relative importance of changing age structure and increasing human capital for economic growth for a panel of 165 countries during the time period of 1980-2015. The results show a clear dominance of improving education over age structure and give evidence that the demographic dividend is driven by human capital. Declining youth dependency ratios even show negative impacts on income growth when combined with low education. Based on a multidimensional understanding of demography that considers education in addition to age, and with a view to the additional effects of education on health and general resilience, we conclude that the true demographic dividend is a human capital dividend. Global population policies should thus focus on strengthening the human resource base for sustainable development.

Thesis (M.Com. (Economics)) --University of Limpopo, 2010 / Economic growth remains one of the key macroeconomic objectives of most governments. South Africa witnessed moderate economic growth rates between 1994 and 2006, except for 1998 when the country recorded a sharp decline in economic growth as a result of worldwide financial crisis. The key challenge facing the country is to sustain and improve on the growth performance. South Africa’s economic growth has largely been demand –driven as indicated by the dominance of consumption over investment. Growth theorists identify investment, savings, human capital, productivity and R & D as some of the principal drivers of economic growth on the supply side. Investment and savings within the economy remain largely below those of the world’s most successful East - Asian countries. Other indicators further reveal that there is still room for improvements on the supply-side of the economy. The growing current account deficits point to the fact that domestic demand is too high for the country’s productive capacity. Similarly, the declining enrolment in tertiary institutions and a shift in the structure of production towards high skill services industry call for a policy shift in line with the unfolding trend. Thus, this study proposes some policy options that could be considered to sustain South Africa’s economic growth performance. Key words: Economic Growth, Investments, Human Capital and Productivity

Doctor of Philosophy / Since the 1950s, economic growth has been one of the main topics of economic discipline. In this context, the sources of economic growth have been analysed by different economic theories. These theories can be decomposed into two groups, namely modern neoclassical theory and evolutionary economic theory. In the modern neoclassical economic theory, the technological progress is considered as the main determinant of the long-run economic growth. In this regard, the sources of economic growth differences among countries are analyzed by using various types of models. In the earliest studies, it is assumed that technological progress is exogenous (Solow-Swan model). Constant returns to scale and perfectly competitive market structure assumptions are the main characteristics of these studies. After the developments in the economic theory, technological progress has been taken into account in a different way by a new line of models, namely endogenous growth models. More specifically, technological progress is endogenously determined process in these models. Contrary to the previous models, increasing returns to scale, which stem from externality and the monopolistic market structure, play a significant role in endogenous growth models. We have reached to the conclusion that, although it suffers from some weaknesses, endogenous growth model proposes a more realistic explanation for the economic growth process. In the evolutionary economic theory, technological progress is also considered as the main determinant of economic growth. However, this theory deals with empirical issues by focusing on observed facts instead of constructing theoretical models, and provides both guidance and interpretation regarding technological progress. In this theory, variables and relationships that are considered have many practical implications. In that respect, its structure is very much realistic and it avoids certain logical gaps and inconsistencies. One of the aims of this thesis is to examine developments in economic theory by focusing on technological progress. For this purpose, we compare formal and evolutionary theories. Our theoretical review reveals that both the endogenous growth models in the tradition of modern neoclassical theory, and the important insights of the evolutionary economic theory help to analyze technological progress and/or economic growth. Furthermore, this thesis aims to measure technological progress. The measurement of technological progress is vital for the nations’ development strategies and the firms’ innovation policies. In this regard, we use patent statistics as a proxy of technological progress. The empirical parts of the thesis involve a number of applications of endogenous growth theory by taking into account the propositions of modern neoclassical economic theory. In this regard, the growth rate differences across countries are examined by using the frameworks of both the modern neoclassical and evolutionary theories. The results show that both theories have reasonable power to explain why growth rate differs across countries. In addition, we conclude that patenting activities rather than R&D activities more suitably represent innovative activities. Moreover, this thesis empirically tests the knowledge generation process in the framework of endogenous growth approach. We employ the knowledge production approach for this purpose. It is found that both domestic and international stocks of knowledge as measured by granted patent statistics, R&D activities, human capital and openness measures are significant factors in explaining productivity growth. Furthermore, product variety and quality improvement dimensions of technological progress are empirically analyzed by using patent statistics. It is found that both dimensions of technological progress significantly affect creation of new technologies. Finally, the findings indicate that technological capability of Turkey is far away from other developed countries covered by this study.

<p>Economic growth around the world has not been equal for a long time. Some economics grow faster while others grow slower. But economists have predicted that the slower growing economics will eventually converge with the faster growing economy as some point in the future. This is known as the convergence hypothesis. In this study, we test this hypothesis for Ghana and the Western Europeans countries with UK been a proxy for these countries, using time series data to determine whether or not it holds. We determine how fast or slow this convergence process is by using the returns to scale concept on Ghana’s economy and latter account for factor that determines economic growth in sectors. The study supported the null hypothesis of convergence i.e. Ghana is catching up with the Western European countries. The study also shown that Ghana growth accounting exhibit decreasing returns meaning convergence is relatively slow and also signifies that Ghana is not on a balanced growth path (this refers to the simultaneous, coordinated expansion of several sectors of the economy). The study showed a negative relationship between GDP and labour both in the long run and short run relationship. Again the study showed a positive relationship between GDP and capital, Agric and Industrial sector. Lastly, the study showed a negative relationship between GDP and AID and Service in the long run and positive relationship in the short run.</p>

<p>This thesis studies the impact from HIV/AIDS on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. This is an important region for investigation since HIV/AIDS is more common in poor countries where economic growth levels are initially low.</p><p>The theoretical framework for the analysis is the Solow Growth Model. The analysis also considers the impact on changes to human capital and adds this factor to the Solow equation.</p><p>The analysis concludes that the HIV/AIDS epidemic has negative effects on per capita GDP growth through the parameters of the Solow Growth Model, including human capital. The thesis also deduces that the pandemic enhances income and gender inequality.</p><p> </p>

Demographic changes and economic growth are inextricably linked. However, the complex role of demographic system, specifically its temporal features have not been treated with rigor till recently. This dissertation undertakes such an attempt to explain cross-country growth variations and focuses on longterm growth projections by explicitly treating demographic system in a stochastic shocks framework. We exploit the temporal characteristics of demographic system to shed light on its evolution, study its complex interaction with economic system and analyze the long-run effect on economic growth/development. The dissertation contains four chapters. After outlining the motivation of the thesis and an overview of the chapter scheme in the first chapter, we investigate in Chapter 2 how the effects of demographic components viz., age specific population have changed over the decades. Following the standard practice of assuming `stationary' features of population growth, we first evaluate and extend the popular empirical economic growth models. We find that decadal changes have brought forth variations in economic growth of developed and developing economies. We argue that accounting for temporal features of the demographic and economic growth system would provide clear insights into persistent growth fluctuations. In Chapter 3 we develop a new mechanism to characterize stochastic nature of demographic shocks in which population series with large temporal dimension is assumed to be governed by certain degree of stochastic shocks. By doing so, the conventional `stationary' assumption underlying the current theoretical and empirical exploration is relaxed and more dynamic information about the persistence of shocks is accommodated in the economic growth models. To this end, we first provide an analytical framework to show that long-memory shocks in demographic age structure or population might induce long-memory in economic growth. An empirical illustration of both developed and developing countries is carried out to demonstrate that population age structure in these countries are characterized by long-memory. The causality of stochastic demographic shocks' influence and economic growth (and the converse) is also examined. Following the theoretical development and empirical illustration in Chapter 3, in Chapter 4 we propose to forecast total and age-structured population employing fractionally integrated ARMA (in short, ARFIMA) technique. The conventional methods of population forecasting is discussed in this chapter evaluating the advantages and potential weaknesses of these methods. Our approach to population forecasting can be considered as a shift from the conventional `low, medium, and high' variant and the recently used ARMA projections (assuming stationarity or first difference stationarity of aggregate population) and is a departure from the stochastic population forecast based on Leslie matrix as used in the extant population forecasting literature. In Chapter 5 we incorporate the memory properties of demographic age- distribution to forecast Gross Domestic Product (or National income) of some developed and developing countries. We relax the stationary age-structure and population growth assumption in the model while performing long term income projections. We argue that the growth of total age-structured population need not be stationary and that any degree of stochastic shocks in these series can affect forecasting performance. Given that a long-memory panel method is yet to be comprehensively built for forecasting, we perform forecast of demography-based income in the univariate context assuming a stochastic long-memory process for age-structured population growth. Finally, Chapter 6 summarizes the main findings of the thesis and outlines some possible directions for further research. / Les changements démographiques et la croissance économique sont intimement liées. Cependant, le complexe rôle du système démographique, particulièrement son aspect temporel, n'a pas encore été analysé avec rigueur jusqu'aujourd'hui. Cette dissertation tente d'aborder cette question afin d'expliquer les changements de croissance des pays. Elle insiste particulièrement sur les projections de croissance de long terme en traitant explicitement les systèmes démographiques dans une structure de chocs stochastiques. Nous exploitons les caractéristiques temporelles des systèmes démographiques pour analyser leur évolution, étudier sa complexe interaction avec le système économique ainsi que les effets de long terme sur la croissance économique. Dans le chapitre 2, nous nous intéressons sur les effets des composantes démographiques , plus précisément comment l'âge d'une population spécifique a changé avec le temps. Suivant la pratique standard qui suppose une « stationnarité » de la croissance de la population, nous évaluons et étendons les modèles empiriques populaires de croissance économique. Nous trouvons que les changements décennaux ont apporté quatre changements dans la croissance économique des pays aussi bien développés qu'en développement. Nous montrons que le fait de tenir compte de l'aspect temporel des systèmes de croissance économique et démographique améliore les résultats sur la persistance des fluctuations de la croissance. Dans le chapitre 3, nous développons un nouveau mécanisme pour caractériser la nature stochastique des chocs démographiques dans laquelle les séries de population avec une large dimension temporelle sont supposées régies par un certain nombre de chocs stochastiques. En procédant de cette manière, la supposition conventionnelle de « stationnarité » qui sous-tend l'exploration théorique et empirique courante est relâchée et beaucoup plus d'informations sur la persistance des chocs sont données dans les modèles de croissance économique. Dans la croissance économique endogène avec un changement endogène de population, ce chapitre construit un modèle « long-memory » de population et de ses composantes (structure par âges) pour montrer les effets des changements démographiques sur les économies tant développées qu'en développement. Pour ce faire, nous donnons d'abord une formulation théorique pour montrer que les chocs « long-memory » dans la structure démographique de la population peut induire une croissance. Une illustration empirique est développée pour montrer que la structure de la population est caractérisée de « long-memory ». Suite au développement théorique et à l'illustration empirique du chapitre 3, le chapitre 4 propose une prévision de la population totale et de la structure démographique en employant de manière fractionnée la technique intégrée ARMA ( ARFIMA en bref). Les méthodes conventionnelles de prévision de la population sont discutées dans ce chapitre valuant les avantages et les faiblesses potentielles de ces méthodes. Notre approche peut être considérée comme un changement de la variante de la méthode conventionnelle « faible, moyenne et élevée » par rapport à la récente projection ARIMA utilisée récemment (qui suppose stationnarité ou différence première de la population agrégée). De plus, notre approche est un départ de la prévision de la population stochastique basée sur la matrice de Leslie. Nous avons aussi examiné un départ de la prévision stochastique basée sur la matrice de Leslie. Dans ce chapitre, nous avons aussi analysé pourquoi les techniques de prévision en démographie n'ont pas beaucoup évolué alors que les méthodes ne sont pas restées si traditionnelles. Dans le chapitre 5, nous incorporons les propriétés démographiques « memory » âge - distribution pour prévoir le Produit Intérieur Brut (ou revenu national) de quelques économies développées et en développement. Nous relâchons l'hypothèse de stationnarité âge-structure et croissance de la population dans le modèle en faisant les projections du revenu de long terme. Nous montrons que la croissance de la population totale n'a pas besoin d'être stationnaire et que tout degré de chocs stochastiques dans ces séries peut affecter la performance de prévision. Etant donné que la méthode de panel “long memory” est encore à construire pour une bonne prévision, nous faisons une prévision du revenu basée sur la démographie dans un contexte uni varié qui suppose une procédure stochastique « long- memory » pour une croissance de la population structurée suivant l'âge. Finalement, le chapitre 6 résume les resultants principaux de la thèse et montre quelques directions possibles pour des recherches futures.

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Economic growth around the world has not been equal for a long time. Some economics grow faster while others grow slower. But economists have predicted that the slower growing economics will eventually converge with the faster growing economy as some point in the future. This is known as the convergence hypothesis. In this study, we test this hypothesis for Ghana and the Western Europeans countries with UK been a proxy for these countries, using time series data to determine whether or not it holds. We determine how fast or slow this convergence process is by using the returns to scale concept on Ghana’s economy and latter account for factor that determines economic growth in sectors. The study supported the null hypothesis of convergence i.e. Ghana is catching up with the Western European countries. The study also shown that Ghana growth accounting exhibit decreasing returns meaning convergence is relatively slow and also signifies that Ghana is not on a balanced growth path (this refers to the simultaneous, coordinated expansion of several sectors of the economy). The study showed a negative relationship between GDP and labour both in the long run and short run relationship. Again the study showed a positive relationship between GDP and capital, Agric and Industrial sector. Lastly, the study showed a negative relationship between GDP and AID and Service in the long run and positive relationship in the short run.

This thesis studies the impact from HIV/AIDS on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. This is an important region for investigation since HIV/AIDS is more common in poor countries where economic growth levels are initially low. The theoretical framework for the analysis is the Solow Growth Model. The analysis also considers the impact on changes to human capital and adds this factor to the Solow equation. The analysis concludes that the HIV/AIDS epidemic has negative effects on per capita GDP growth through the parameters of the Solow Growth Model, including human capital. The thesis also deduces that the pandemic enhances income and gender inequality.

It is wide believed that the economic growth is good to stockholders, but there still exist some arguments about the positive relationship between the economic growth and stock market returns. We prove that the economic growth has positive effect on the stock market returns. As a result, the stockholders could use the economic index to choose their target market to earn return. We find that the stock market could only reflect the short term condition of the country and could not reflect the long term accumulation of a country. That is, the national competitiveness could not reflect on the stock market return for stockholders in the long term. Otherwise, we also find that the capital formation and productivity are significantly positive to the stock market returns. We use the real GDP growth rate as the economic growth proxy and the national competitiveness rank to measure the national competitiveness from IMD competitiveness center. The time period of data is from 1997~2010. Fifty countries included in our sample.