A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management by Research and Dissertation / This study focuses on the gap-filling role of the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA). The use of development banks as a policy instrument to spur economic growth has been a practice followed internationally since World War II. Development banks are intended to extend financing to undertakings in the market economy deemed by the private sector as posing too much financial risk. Usually, these are development-orientated, low-profit green-fields projects initiated by clients in the public sector. By financing such development projects traditionally excluded by the market, the development bank fills a gap in the market. The DBSA was established in 1983 to bridge the gap between the industrialised central government and the underdeveloped Bantustan states and independent territories. At the time, the Bank could finance any development project so long as it fell within the Southern African region. However, post 1994, the DBSA mandate changed, shifting its focus to the public sector – low-income municipalities – and to particularly, specialise in financing infrastructure projects. Now altered, its development finance functions extended far beyond the Bantustan territories and independent states. Interest in the DBSA’s gap-filling role was generated by the observation that it had not been providing development finance according to the traditional tenets of understanding development finance. The problem was two-fold. The Bank’s target client was not necessarily the most deserving. Additionally, projects financed by the DBSA did not automatically fall within the infrastructure development mandate. This thesis has explored how, in light of its financier role prior and post 1994, the DBSA interpreted and acted in relation to its mandate as set out in its policy documents and strategies. This study also delved into the nature of projects financed and if they were in line with the traditional understanding of gap-filling. As well, this report investigated factors contributing to the DBSA’s deviation from its gap-filling role. To carry out this research, case study methodology was used in tandem with the qualitative approach. To answer research questions in-depth-unstructured interviews and document analysis were used. The study was both an exploration of the DBSA’s gap-filling role as well as examination of development finance in action in the South African context. The study drew on literature in New Institutional Economics (NIE) as an umbrella theory best suited to explore the DBSA’s gap-filling role. It was found that prior to 1994 the DBSA did act in line with its gap-filling role. However, post 1994 the Bank most certainly deviated from its gap-filling role. Contributing factors to this divergence were found to be an increasingly competitive private sector, confusion over its development mandate, a challenging municipal client base and a self-sustainability funding model. Prior to 1994, the DBSA enjoyed a monopoly over its target client base, the Bantustan states and independent territories. It had a broad development mandate coupled with capital backing from the Republic of South Africa (RSA) central government. Post 1994, the DBSA mandate was infrastructure development targeted towards the public sector. The Bank was required to adopt a self-sustainability funding model. This, coupled with entry into a competitive private sector moving into the development space, placed a great deal of pressure on the Bank. Therefore, it became necessary to finance profit generating projects rather than those initiated by its mandated low-income high risk client base – poor municipalities. This study contributed to DFI literature by illustrating what functions DFIs are mandated to perform compared to what they do in reality. Also, this analysis has shown traditional market-failure studies assume DFIs perform a gap-filling role. This has to be re-examined taking into account the changing institutional environment. And, particularly in South Africa, more studies need to be conducted to further understand limitations and opportunities the DFI model offers for overall development.

The effect of federal revenue assistance to state and local governments on their respective fiscal decisions is analyzed in an original, neoclassical economic model. This model more accurately describes the incentive structure facing each recipient government constituency. From this model, implications are derived which are descriptive of empirically observed behavior by state and local governments receiving federal grants. / However, these implications are not the result of self-serving behavioral traits that are exogenously imposed upon donor or recipient governments, but rather the direct result of the incentive structure faced by the grant receiving state and local government constituencies in a system of fiscal federalism. / Data from the fifty states on total revenue and expenditure levels of combined state and local governments is utilized from the last thirty years to test the implications derived from the model. Cross-sectional regression analysis is combined with time series analysis to determine whether federal revenue assistance to state and local governments: (1) increases income elasticity of demand for recipient government goods and services; (2) decreases recipient government own-source tax burdens; (3) decreases the competition between state jurisdictions for a mobile tax base by increasing the homogeneity across states of locally provided programs. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 54-07, Section: A, page: 2667. / Major Professor: Randall G. Holcombe. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1993.

Jensen's free cash flow theory produces numerous merger-related predictions. Existing empirical evidence is consistent with many of the predictions of the free cash flow theory, though little has been done to test this theory. This dissertation contributes to the understanding of the role that free cash flow plays in acquisitions. Different measures of free cash flow are investigated. / This dissertation addresses two specific issues. The first issue is the ability of free cash flow to explain consummated mergers. This is accomplished by determining whether free cash flow is matched (according to Jensen's theory) or mismatched between acquiring and acquired firms. Results indicate that free cash flow does play a role in the pairing of merger participants; however, the predictions of free cash flow theory are not supported. The inability to support Jensen's free cash flow theory may result from other factors not controlled for in this analysis. / The second issue is whether free cash flow can be used to explain firms that are acquired. This is accomplished by estimating a logit model for a sample consisting of acquired and non-acquired firms that includes free cash flow proxies and other variables. Free cash flow, growth, size, and exchange listing are observed to be characteristics that distinguish acquired firms from non-acquired firms. A model that includes a free cash flow measure relative to the industry is able to correctly predict 71.3 percent of acquired firms and 59.7 percent of all firms in the holdout sample. / The conclusions from the two issues addressed indicate that free cash flow does have a significant effect on merger activity. However, results do not support the predictions of Jensen's free cash flow theory of takeovers. An extension of this study would be to evaluate the abnormal returns of portfolios formed by free cash flow based models. Future research should also investigate whether free cash flow measures can explain the wealth effects observed for merger participants at the merger announcement date. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 51-09, Section: A, page: 3168. / Major Professor: Pamela P. Peterson. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1990.

This study examines the impact of alternative distribution channels on policyowners' costs and profitability of ordinary life insurers. Using performance data and company characteristics for a sample of forty-five ordinary life insurers, step-wise regression analysis was applied to examine the relationship between alternative distribution channels and life insurer profitability and policyowners' costs. The results from this study do not support any specific relationship between life insurer profits or policyowners' costs and the type of distribution channel employed by a life insurer. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 56-04, Section: A, page: 1418. / Major Professor: Robert A. Marshall. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1995.

The major question this study examines is whether international acquisitions show different patterns of returns to participating firms than purely domestic events do. The research design holds the time period and sample constant, focusing on the measurement of returns using two models and three estimation periods. The models are a domestic market model (DMM) and an international market model (IMM). The estimation periods are a pre-event, pooled pre and post-event, and separate post-event period. / The sample is composed of 73 acquisitions occurring from 1970 to 1980, involving cash payment. Thirty-five acquisitions represent U.S. firms acquiring U.K. firms, and 38 events represent U.K. firms acquiring U.S. firms. Returns to the firms are measured for a $\pm$36 month period around the first acquisition announcement date. / Eight null hypotheses are used as benchmarks of performance. Hypotheses one and two state that acquired firm returns using pre-event estimation and the DMM and IMM, respectively, are not significantly greater than zero. Hypotheses one and two are rejected for U.S. and U.K. acquired firms since excess returns are significantly positive based on both the pre-event DMM and IMM. / Hypotheses three through five state that returns to U.S. (U.K.) acquiring firms under the DMM for pre, pooled, and post-event estimation, respectively, are not significantly different from zero. Hypothesis three cannot be rejected (accepted) around the event date (following the event date) because of insignificant (significant) negative returns. Hypothesis four cannot be rejected prior to (following) the event date because of insignificant positive (negative) returns, respectively. Hypothesis five cannot generally be accepted because of significantly positive returns. / Hypotheses six through eight state that returns to acquiring firms under the IMM for the three estimation periods, respectively, are not significantly different from zero. Hypothesis six cannot be rejected (accepted) for U.S. (U.K.) firms because of insignificant (significant) negative returns prior to (following) the event, respectively. Hypothesis seven cannot be rejected because of generally insignificant positive returns. Hypothesis eight cannot be accepted because of generally positive returns. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 49-07, Section: A, page: 1904. / Major Professor: Robert L. Conn. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1988.

Ho Wing-Kee. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2002. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 60-66). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.i / Acknowledgement --- p.iii / Table of Content --- p.v / List of Table --- p.vi / List of Appendices --- p.vii / Chapter Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.5 / Chapter Chapter 3. --- Theoretical Framework --- p.8 / Chapter 3.1 --- Regime 1 ( Social Planner Model) --- p.10 / Chapter 3.2 --- Regime 2 ( Provision of Indivisible Public Capital by the Government Model ) --- p.14 / Chapter 3.3 --- Regime 3 ( Provision of Indivisible Public Capital by the Public Monopoly Model) --- p.19 / Chapter Chapter 4. --- Quantitative Comparison --- p.27 / Chapter 4.1 --- Calibration --- p.27 / Chapter 4.2 --- Numerical Results --- p.29 / Chapter Chapter 5. --- Conclusion --- p.31 / Appendices --- p.42 / References --- p.60

This dissertation focuses on the effects of fiscal policy on investment in industrial innovation. We particularly evaluate the impact of tax incentives on R&D expenditures After discussing the desirability of government intervention in the innovation activities, we set up a model of demand for R&D investment derived from a dynamic profit maximization framework following Jorgenson investment theory. The effects of tax incentives on R&D expenditures is indirectly captured through the user cost of research capital The estimation of the R&D investment function is conducted at the firm, industry, and at selected manufacturing sector level. Results indicate that R&D investment is responding to price changes, therefore, tax incentives through their effects on the user cost of research capital should be effective in stimulating R&D expenditures However, although the estimates indicate that demand for R&D investment is price elastic, the additional R&D expenditures generated by theses tax incentives fell short of revenues losses to the government. There are evidences for many firms, especially those in the low-tech sector, that these R&D incentives programs provided windfall profits rather than an incentive to expand their R&D programs / acase@tulane.edu

This dissertation examines the time series properties of floating exchange rates during the 1920s. This study benefits from the use of high frequency daily data of spot and forward exchange rates and the application of recently developed econometric techniques. The currencies examined are the U.S. dollar, French franc, Belgian franc, Italian lira and the German mark, all quoted with respect to the Pound sterling. The data set covers a period of thirty-seven months from May 1, 1922 to May 30, 1925 for all the exchange rates except the German mark, for which observations end on July 24, 1923 A detailed analysis of the behavior of spot exchange rates is carried out by testing for three, two and one unit roots. There is evidence that all the spot exchange rates are characterized by a unit root and the German mark is characterized by a unit root with a drift. Further, diagnostic tests indicate that all the exchange rate series are heteroskedastic and exhibit high kurtosis. Therefore, there is evidence against the hypothesis that spot exchange rates follow a random walk. The analysis is extended by fitting ARCH and GARCH models to explain the volatility of the market at that time The forward market efficiency is examined by testing the simple unbiasedness hypothesis, i.e., the forward rate is an optimal predictor of the future spot rate under rational expectations and risk neutrality. This is followed with tests of orthogonality of the forecast errors to different information sets. In the above tests corrections are made for serial correlation and heteroskedasticity. A VAR model is also estimated and the cross equation restrictions tested using a Wald statistic. All the tests reject the null hypothesis of an efficient market We also test for cointegration of spot and forward rates of a country. In three of the five currencies we find that the spot and forward rates of a country are cointegrated, indicating that those markets were weakly efficient. Finally, cointegration across markets is examined using a multivariate test. In general we find that the markets were not integrated across countries except in the neighboring economies of France and Belgium / acase@tulane.edu

The first purpose of this research is to build a Cobb-Douglas Production Model considering capital, labor, and energy as the main inputs, in order to identify the role of energy, investment, and new technology in Mexico's economic growth. The estimation of this model shows that energy stands as a source of growth independent of capital and new technology. As a conclusion, Mexico must either develop its domestic sources of natural gas or substantially increase imports. The second purpose of this research it to build a complete oil and gas supply model for Mexico in order to identify the financial variables that could affect future oil and gas drilling, reserves, and production in order to secure the hydrocarbon supplies required for future generations The results of this research will be of vital interest to the staff of President Vicente Fox and to top-level officials at PEMEX. Energy in Mexico is of highest-order importance, stressed by both President Vicente Fox and PEMEX. The main issues debated in the Mexican political scenario are: (1) PEMEX could generate a huge economic surplus, but it is not possible because it plays an important role as a source of economic resources for Federal Government projects through a high Tax Burden. This statement is supported with econometrics. (2) PEMEX's challenge is to increase oil and gas exploratory and development drilling activities. There has been a lack of investment for these activities during the last years. The Secretary of Energy designed the Multiple Service Contracts (MSC) to invite foreign companies to invest in a state-owned company. This sounds as a probable promising alternative supported by the results of this research; however, there is still great debate about the MSC and the Energy Reform needed to let the energy sector support a successful Sustainable Development Growth Policy The analysis of the oil and gas supply model in this study leads to important economic policy recommendations that could support future debates on these issues / acase@tulane.edu

Evolutionary algorithms attempt to find solutions to problems where the solution space is too large to be examined in its entirety. These algorithms have been used in applications ranging from Biology to Economics. Genetic Algorithms and Genetic Programming are variants of evolutionary computation that can be applied to problems in Accounting and Finance. This dissertation evaluates the applicability of Genetic Programming to option pricing and time-series modeling and the applicability of Genetic Algorithms to financial statement analysis The Black-Scholes model is a landmark in option pricing theory and has found wide acceptance in financial markets. The search for a better option pricing model continues, however, as the Black-Scholes model was derived under strict assumptions that do not hold in the real world and model prices exhibit systematic biases from observed option prices. I successfully apply Koza's (1992) Genetic Programming methodology to develop option-pricing models. This method is well suited to the task and offers some advantages over alternative methods There is often a need in accounting research for a proxy of the markets' expectation of earnings. Quarterly earnings forecasts from both analysts and mechanical models have been traditionally used as such proxies. Mechanical models, although easy to implement, have unfortunately never been able to consistently beat analysts' forecasts, of which Value Line (VL) is an example. I use Genetic Programming to develop forecasting and forecast combining models for the time-series of quarterly earnings. However, the models developed using this technique fail to perform better than traditional linear models One of the goals of financial statement analysis is to extract firm-value-relevant information from financial statements. The process by which this information is processed can be considered a black box. In making forecasts and reports, analysts examine financial statement variables and derived quantities and aggregate this information with outside information. The process is subjective and it is a stylized fact that some information is always purposely or by necessity left out. It is humanly impossible to coherently aggregate information from so many variables. Therefore, a methodology in which information is extracted automatically is potentially attractive not just to analysts but also to lay investors. Ou and Penman (1989) propose one such automated methodology. They develop what they term the 'Pr measure' to aggregate financial statement information and predict the signs of changes in annual company earnings adjusted for drift. However, Ou and Penman's methodology may have some weaknesses. I develop predictive models that ameliorate some of the potential weaknesses in Ou and Penman's method. My methodology combines genetic algorithms and LOGIT to predict the signs of earnings changes / acase@tulane.edu