Aside from the introduction and conclusion, this thesis comprises four core chapters: The first chapter investigates the presence of endogenous peer effects in the adoption of formal property rights. Using data from a unique land titling experiment held in an unplanned settlement in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. I show a strong, positive impact of neighbour adoption on the household’s choice to purchase a land title. I also show that this relationship holds in a separate, identical experiment held a year later in a nearby community, as well as in administrative data for approximately 45,000 land parcels in the same city. I also discuss possible channels, including the possibility of complementarities in the reduction in expropriation risk. The second chapter examines the relationship between ethnic heterogeneity and the demand for formal land tenure. Using a unique census of two highly fractionalised settle- ments in Dar es Salaam, I show that households located near coethnics are significantly less likely to purchase a limited form of land tenure recently offered by the government. I attempt to address one of the chief concerns, endogenous sorting of households, by con- ditioning on a households choice of neighbors upon arrival in the neighborhood. These results suggest that close-knit ethnic groups may be less likely to accept state-provided goods if they can generate reasonable substitutes. The third chapter is a short chapter which presents results from a recent policy experi- ment in Tanzania where formal land titles were provided to informal settlers at randomised prices. Land owners were also randomly assigned conditional discounts, which could only be applied if a woman was designated as owner or co-owner of the land in question. Results show that conditionality has no adverse effects on demand for land titles, yet drastically increases the probability a woman is included. We discuss the implications of these results for the expected bargaining power impacts of the intervention. The final chapter investigates birth order effects on both anthropometric and edu- cation outcomes in a longitudinal survey of children from the Philippines. Birth order effects are present early in life for both outcomes, but attenuate as children approach adulthood. There is also evidence for nonlinear birth order effects, with both firstborn and lastborn children holding an advantage over middleborn children. These results are at odds with prevalent theories of birth order which predict lasting and monotonic differences in outcomes across children.

Accounting for output per worker differences across countries has been an ongoing topic of research in economics. This thesis expands upon standard approaches by allowing for technological heterogeneity and exploiting firm and worker level data to determine the microeconomic sources of variation in both productivity and earnings. An intercontinental comparison using production functions for the Ghanaian and South Korean manufacturing sectors in Chapter 2 finds, in contrast to the conclusions of much of the macroeconomic literature, that there is no difference in total factor productivity (TFP). The microeconomic sources of the difference in value added per worker lie within the technology of firms, which is defined as the way in which inputs are used. Two important dimensions of this difference are the larger role of material inputs and the much lower rate of return to schooling in Ghana. In Chapter 3 a more general specification investigates intra-African variation in production, which is much smaller than the intercontinental difference. The pattern of cross-country heterogeneity is that, as GDP per capita rises, the relative input of materials falls, those of capital and labour rise and the returns to education increase. Differences in TFP are limited. Possible sources of the low returns to schooling in Ghana are investigated in Chapter 4 using earnings and production functions. Conditional upon selection into occupations, the only group of workers for whom education appreciably increases earnings are those employed in skilled jobs with more than ten years of education. The evidence is consistent with a lack of technological sophistication being the source of these low returns. Investment in new production processes by firms will increase the return to education and raise incomes and output. Reducing the share of intermediate inputs in production is key to the transition from low to high productivity activities. Technology is the critical element that can explain the performance of manufacturing firms across countries.

This thesis consists of five stand-alone chapters empirically evaluating questions relating to the life cycle of natural resource extraction. We use three different data sets to shed light on the local impacts of natural resource booms and busts. In chapter 2 to 4 we use the household budget survey of Kazakhstan to explore the impacts of the oil boom on the local population. In the second chapter, we explore the distributional effects of the oil boom and show that average household income increased and income inequality decreased. In the third chapter we study how the increase in average income was perceived by the local population and find that households' satisfaction with income decreased. In the fourth chapter we study how the boom affected households' expenditure and show that the likelihood that households pay tuition fees for tertiary education increased. In chapter 5, we explore the long-term impacts of a negative labour demand shock following the coal mine closures in the UK. To do this we construct a new data set containing the location of all active coal mines since 1981 and link it to the UK census. We find that the dramatic lay off of miners since 1981 was associated with a persistent reduction in female labour force participation in the affected districts. In chapter 6, we study the determinants of drilling costs and their impact on the real price of oil using a new global data set on the number of exploration wells drilled and costs of drilling. To do this, we propose a structural model of the upstream sector in the oil and gas industry. The model allows us to decompose the variation in the reduced form errors of the estimated VAR into three structural shocks, and estimate the dynamic responses of the variables in the system to these shocks. We confirm that the upstream sector of the oil and gas industry is subject to increasing costs. But we do not find that the real oil price is permanently affected by shocks to costs of drilling.

This thesis employs two new approaches to explain some of the important debates in two key economic fields: labour market economics and macroeconomic studies related to current account imbalances. Chapter 1, Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 begin a new strand of research by introducing the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution to describe unobserved heterogeneity in the labour market. The NIG distribution can be represented as a normal variance-mean mixture with the inverse Gaussian (IG) distribution as the mixing distribution. A 0.01% subsample of the 1980 US Census, comprising all men between 18 and 65 who are in the labour force, as well as a comparable sample from Ghana, is used to show that the NIG distribution provides a better fit of the log earnings function than the normal distribution. The prediction of right skewness of the log earnings distribution arising from the log normal skill Roy selection model is rejected in favour of left skewness. The thesis then extends the model to describe the distribution of log earnings conditioned on education. The same two datasets (US males and Ghanaian males) are used for the empirical analysis. We find that, once the unobserved heterogeneity is accounted for, the return to education is almost flat for lower levels of education in Ghana, and then increases for education levels greater than ten years. One of the key differences between the two datasets is that skewness and unobserved heterogeneity is a function of education for Ghana but not for the US. The NIG framework is found to be a useful tool to model this heterogeneity. Chapter 4 uses a model that allows for a rich structure of age effects similar to those predicted by the life cycle theories to argue that the demographic shifts are partly responsible for the sustained rise in the US current account deficit and the rapid increase in China's current account surplus in the last decade. However, demographics do not have an impact on the long run equilibrium or level of current accounts. Rather, they are important determinants of the short run adjustment of current accounts to their equilibrium levels. In the next twenty years, the demographic shifts are likely to push towards further current account positive adjustments in China and current account negative adjustments in the US. Developing the infrastructure, financial markets, policy tools and regulatory settings to be able to cope with the excess capital flow remains an urgent task.

Rural inhabitants of developing countries face extraordinarily risky environments, and decision-making under risk has crucial implications for the welfare of the rural poor. Therefore, obtaining a better understanding of the behaviour under risk of low-income populations is a vital step in the comprehension of human behaviour, and is important for effective policy design and evaluation, as well as for shedding light on production, investment and technology adoption decisions. In Chapter One, I analyze data collected from a laboratory experiment involving poor subjects in rural Ethiopia, in order to determine which decision models (and corresponding risk preferences) best describe the decision-making under risk of inhabitants. I find that expected utility theory (EUT) does not provide a good overall description of the decisions made by participants in the experiment; instead, there is evidence of probability weighting and loss aversion, implying that rank-dependent and reference-dependent choice models are more likely to represent the true latent decision-making process of subjects. In Chapter Two, I analyze combined experimental and survey data from rural Ethiopia in order to evaluate the determinants of risk preferences as well as assess the degree of asset integration in experimental decisions. Analyzing both EUT and non-EUT decision models and using an instrumental variable strategy, I find that household wealth negatively affects both risk aversion and loss aversion, but independent background risk has no effect on risk preferences. Further, I find evidence of narrow framing, as opposed to asset integration, suggesting that participants make decisions in the experiment in isolation from outside wealth. In Chapter Three, I analyze experimental data from Brazil to evaluate whether subjects understand decision problems that use the complex Multiple Price List (MPL) elicitation procedure, and to determine which decision models best describe observed choices. I find that the MPL decision problems of the experiment enable a finer characterization of risk preferences as compared to Ordered Lottery Selection problems (used in the Ethiopian experiment). However, I find that a significant fraction of choice patterns in the MPL problems are intransitive, and the evidence indicates that subjects did not properly understand the decision problems and thus observed choices do not reveal true risk preferences. Therefore, the relatively complex MPL procedure may not be suitable for experiments conducted with poorly-educated subjects in developing country settings. Chapter Four presents a theory outlining the relationship between rational demand for index insurance – for which the net transfer between insurer and policyholders depends only on a publicly verifiable index – and wealth. Further, the validity of this theory is tested using the experimental data from Ethiopia. In line with the theoretical model presented, due to basis risk and actuarially unfair premiums, demand for index insurance is hump-shaped – first increasing then decreasing – in wealth. The results indicate that the low take-up of this product observed among the poorest (and most risk averse) individuals in recent field studies may result from rational choice rather than credit constraints or poor decision-making.

Este trabalho parte da constatação de que, na história de Mato Grosso do Sul, sempre esteve presente a disputa, tão frequente no Brasil, entre os projetos de desenvolvimento de longo prazo e os interesses imediatistas do núcleo governante. Esta análise é conduzida nesta tese pelos os conceitos estruturais de desenvolvimento e subdesenvolvimento, dentro de um quadro teórico preciso, à luz das teorias macro-econômicas de Celso Furtado. Em seguida, o trabalho analisa como, em Mato Grosso do Sul, apesar da presença frequente do discurso do desenvolvimento, a força do imediatismo das elites suplantou as articulações que visassem um projeto de desenvolvimento sustentado e duradouro, capaz de melhorar as condições materiais e intelectuais da sociedade. Em particular no setor energético, que é o foco central desta tese, a contradição é marcante, principalmente em razão de que, sob vários aspectos, Mato Grosso do Sul abriga um dos mais importantes parques hidrelétricos do Brasil, sobretudo no Rio Paraná, compartilhado com São Paulo. Foi justamente a debilidade da visão de longo prazo que levou a que a implantação desse parque energético ocorresse à margem de seus governos. / This work starts from the observation that in the history of Mato Grosso do Sul, the race was always present, so frequent in Brazil, among the development projects of long term and immediate interests of the core ruling. This analysis is conducted in this thesis by the structural concepts of development and underdevelopment, within a precise theoretical framework, under Celso Furtados macroeconomic theories. Then, in work examines how, in Mato Grosso do Sul, despite the frequent presence of the development discourse, the strength of the immediacy of the elites supplanted the joints which are aimed at a project of sustainable development and durable, capable of improving the material conditions and intellectual society. Particularly in the energy sector that is the focus of this thesis, the contradiction is striking, especially considering that in many ways Mato Grosso do Sul is home to one of the most important hydroelectric parks in Brazil, especially in the Paraná River, shared with the state of São Paulo. It was precisely the weakness of long term vision that led to the deployment of such energy park occurred outside of their governments.

Este trabalho parte da constatação de que, na história de Mato Grosso do Sul, sempre esteve presente a disputa, tão frequente no Brasil, entre os projetos de desenvolvimento de longo prazo e os interesses imediatistas do núcleo governante. Esta análise é conduzida nesta tese pelos os conceitos estruturais de desenvolvimento e subdesenvolvimento, dentro de um quadro teórico preciso, à luz das teorias macro-econômicas de Celso Furtado. Em seguida, o trabalho analisa como, em Mato Grosso do Sul, apesar da presença frequente do discurso do desenvolvimento, a força do imediatismo das elites suplantou as articulações que visassem um projeto de desenvolvimento sustentado e duradouro, capaz de melhorar as condições materiais e intelectuais da sociedade. Em particular no setor energético, que é o foco central desta tese, a contradição é marcante, principalmente em razão de que, sob vários aspectos, Mato Grosso do Sul abriga um dos mais importantes parques hidrelétricos do Brasil, sobretudo no Rio Paraná, compartilhado com São Paulo. Foi justamente a debilidade da visão de longo prazo que levou a que a implantação desse parque energético ocorresse à margem de seus governos. / This work starts from the observation that in the history of Mato Grosso do Sul, the race was always present, so frequent in Brazil, among the development projects of long term and immediate interests of the core ruling. This analysis is conducted in this thesis by the structural concepts of development and underdevelopment, within a precise theoretical framework, under Celso Furtados macroeconomic theories. Then, in work examines how, in Mato Grosso do Sul, despite the frequent presence of the development discourse, the strength of the immediacy of the elites supplanted the joints which are aimed at a project of sustainable development and durable, capable of improving the material conditions and intellectual society. Particularly in the energy sector that is the focus of this thesis, the contradiction is striking, especially considering that in many ways Mato Grosso do Sul is home to one of the most important hydroelectric parks in Brazil, especially in the Paraná River, shared with the state of São Paulo. It was precisely the weakness of long term vision that led to the deployment of such energy park occurred outside of their governments.

No description available.

The thesis consists of a short introduction and three self-contained analytical chapters on land policy in developing countries. Chapter 1 examines the agricultural investment choices of small-scale farmers in Ethiopia whose land will be expropriated to provide space for a large factory. I use data from a survey of households conducted before expropriation occurred, but after the policy was announced. I identify the anticipation effects of land expropriation using variation in whether households own plots located inside or outside the proposed project boundary. Households facing immediate expropriation hedge against future income risk by using less fertilizer on their plots, and and growing less risky crops. These households are more likely to grow sorghum (a safe crop) and less likely to grow wheat (a relatively riskier crop). Households also respond to the threat of expropriation by reducing long-term investments in soil quality. Using two-stage least squares I show that subjective beliefs about the likelihood of expropriation act as a channel through which the threat of expropriation affects investment decisions. The results are robust to a number of other specifications, including some that account for unobservable geographic variation in plot characteristics. Chapter 2 explores the consequences of land expropriation for small-scale farmers in Ethiopia. Expropriation of farmland is used by all levels of government in Ethiopia as a tool for providing new land for industrial investors, commercial agriculture and expanding cities. Farmers usually receive a cash payment in exchange for their land based on a fixed formula to establish the price of land. I evaluate the impact of such a policy on a group of small-scale farmers and assess the extent to which they make the transition to new livelihoods. On average, households lose 70% of their land and receive compensation payments that are about 5 times the value of their annual consumption expenditure. Using data collected before and after the intervention I examine the impact of expropriation and compensation on household consumption, productive assets, livestock holdings, savings and labour market participation. Households in the treatment group increase their consumption, start more businesses and participate more in non-farm activities than households that do not lose farmland. These households also reallocate livestock portfolios away from oxen and towards small ruminants and cattle, reflecting a shift away from growing crops. However, these shifts to new livelihoods are relatively small compared to the amount of compensation kept as savings: with the exception of a few households, most of the compensation payment is left in commercial banks earning a negative real return. Chapter 3 focuses on the recent increase in large-scale agricultural land deals across Africa and the nature of the contracts reached by governments and foreign investors. In recent years, multi-national firms and foreign governments have entered into long term contracts with host countries in which large tracts of land are purchased or leased for commercial agricultural production in exchange for promises of infrastructure development, job creation and rural infrastructure improvement. The profitability of these projects is uncertain, especially at a time of increased agricultural commodity price volatility in world markets. Based on stylized facts about land deals I present a theoretical model of land contracts reached by host governments and foreign investors that explains the policy tradeoff between investment timelines, revenue generation and uncertainty. When agricultural projects require fixed infrastructure investment and yield uncertain payoffs, firms benefit from being able to complete the fixed investment in stages. If firms can learn more about payoffs by holding off on investment, they effectively hold an option to abandon the project. The value of this option provides a channel by which uncertainty affects the terms of the land contract. When host governments determine the terms of the contract by setting an income tax, a royalty rate and an investment timeline, the value of this option will affect government's optimal policy choice. In particular, I find that if governments benefit a great deal from investment spillovers the optimal contract will be designed to encourage firms not to abandon a project. But, if governments benefit relatively little from investment spillovers, governments will choose contract parameters to extract the value of the firm's option to abandon the project. I end by examining the effect of increasing uncertainty on the government's optimal policy choice.

Aus der Einleitung: "Verschiedene Zielkonflikte zwischen den Anforderungen bzgl. Sicherheit, Wirtschaftlichkeit und Umweltverträglichkeit resultieren aus den Spannungsfeldern Umwelt, Wirtschaft und Technik (Busche 2014, Braess & Seiffert 2013). Richtungsentscheidungen bei der Festlegung der Anforderungen im Entwicklungsprozess auf Grundlage weniger Informationen bergen die Gefahr fehlerhafter Entscheidungen (Feldhusen & Grote 2013). Wird dies im weiteren Verlauf der Entwicklungsprozesse bemerkt sind Iterationsschleifen verbunden mit hohen Kosten notwendig, um dort nachzubessern (Ehrlenspiel et al. 2007). Der Grund für das große Informationsdefizit am Anfang des Entwicklungsprozesses sind die unbekannten Auswirkungen der Parametervariationen auf die Eigenschaften (Ehrlenspiel 2009). Diese resultieren u.a. aus den restriktiven Anforderungen, neuen Technologien oder alternativen Werkstoffen (Braess & Seiffert 2013). Muss das Nachfolgefahrzeug bspw. länger und flacher, bei gleicher Fahrdynamik werden oder leichter bei schärferen NVH- und Crash-Eigenschaften sein, müssen neue Strukturen, Materialien und Verfahren eingesetzt werden (Prinz 2011, Busche 2014). Bei Neukonstruktionen ist der Anteil unbekannter Auswirkungen noch höher (Ehrlenspiel 2009). ..."