Historically the United States has welcomed immigration from all over the world; from Ellis Island to the Statue of Liberty, whose iconic “Mother of Exiles” is considered a symbol of hope to generations upon generations of immigrants. In the last few years there has been an increase in hostility towards immigration but more precisely towards unauthorized immigration. This has caused several states to enact anti-unauthorized immigration measures. States such as South Carolina, Utah, Alabama, have all followed Arizona, which was the first state to enact such a laws. Unauthorized immigrants typically vacate three labor areas, construction, food service, and agriculture. The following thesis tries to detail House Bill 56, which is Alabama’s anti-unauthorized immigration bill, and its impact on the construction industry in Alabama. House Bill 56 was passed by the Alabama House of Representatives, the following research shows that it has negatively affected the construction industry in Alabama. Alabama has three major indexes that detail the overall “health” of the construction industry. They are employment rates, Construction GDP, and Construction Spending. Since the passage of HB 56, all three construction indexes in Alabama have encountered significant negative changes. A survey of sub-contractors in Alabama shows that there is a negative construction labor pool, with most of sub-contractors blaming the passage of HB 56 as the culprit.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The global and national political and economic situation reflects directly on changes in the labor market. Concern about the employability, generate new jobs, as well as security and formality of these, and, places that no longer exist causing unemployment, it is constantly agenda in the academic literature, the media and at the same time government concern. In this context, the objective in this research was to analyze the absolute indicators of formal employment, initially in the eight sectors of the economy (mineral extraction, manufacturing, industrial and public utility services, construction, trade, services, agriculture and public administration) and, subsequently adjust predictive models in four major economic sectors (construction, trade, manufacturing and services). First, there was a descriptive analysis of dismissals in the state of Rio Grande do Sul between January 2004 and December 2014. Then, the analysis extended to the other states of the South region of Brazil (Santa Catarina and Paraná) jointly between 05/2003 and 12/2014. For this, we used the secondary database of the General Register of Employed and Unemployed, made available by the Ministry of Labor and Employment. For data analysis and model adjustments, we used a methodology developed by Box and Jenkins to time series. Initial results indicated significant growth trend of dismissals in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, in seven of the eight sectors of this economy. Second time, were set twelve statistical models forecast that showed seasonal component. Through the models found, it was possible to determine the forecast of formal employment by sector of economic activity in southern Brazil, based on values outside of the sample. In conclusion, the models found showed satisfactory predictions as accompanied the process of the actual values, indicating low average percentage absolute error. / A situação político-econômica mundial e nacional reflete diretamente nas transformações ocorridas no mercado de trabalho. A preocupação com a empregabilidade, geração de novos empregos, bem como a segurança e formalidade destes, e, as vagas que deixam de existir ocasionando o desemprego, é pauta constantemente na literatura acadêmica, na mídia e ao mesmo tempo preocupação do governo. Neste contexto, o objetivo proposto nesta pesquisa foi analisar os indicadores absolutos do emprego formal, inicialmente nos oito setores da economia (extrativa mineral, indústria de transformação, serviços industriais de utilidade pública, construção civil, comércio, serviços, agropecuária e administração pública) e, posteriormente, ajustar modelos de previsão no quatro maiores setores de atividade econômica (construção civil, comércio, indústria de transformação e serviços). Primeiramente, realizou-se uma análise descritiva dos desligamentos no estado do Rio Grande do Sul entre janeiro de 2004 e dezembro de 2014. Em seguida, a análise estendeu-se aos demais estados da região Sul do Brasil (Santa Catarina e Paraná) de forma conjunta entre 05/2003 e 12/2014. Para isso, utilizou-se a base de dados secundários do Cadastro Geral de Empregados e Desempregados, disponibilizados pelo Ministério do Trabalho e Emprego. Para as análises dos dados e ajustes de modelos, empregou-se a metodologia desenvolvida por Box e Jenkins para séries temporais. Os resultados iniciais indicaram tendência significativa de crescimento dos desligamentos no estado do Rio Grande do Sul, em sete dos oito setores da economia avaliados. Em segundo momento, foram ajustados doze modelos estatísticos de previsão que apresentaram componente sazonal. Por meio dos modelos encontrados, foi possível determinar a previsão do emprego formal por setor de atividade econômica na região Sul do Brasil, com base nos valores fora da amostra. Conclui-se que, os modelos encontrados apresentaram previsões satisfatórias, pois acompanharam o processo dos valores reais, evidenciando baixo erro absoluto percentual médio.