Ökonomen wie Wirtschaftspolitiker berufen sich auf die Neutralitätstheorie des Geldes, wenn sie eine Entpolitisierung der Geldpolitik fordern. Sowohl die Theorie der Geldneutralität als auch das Paradigma der Entpolitisierung der Geldpolitik sind jedoch problematisch. Die politökonomischen Entwicklungen nach der globalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise 2007/2008 und die jüngsten Kontroversen über die Rolle und Bedeutung von Geld haben dies deutlich vor Augen geführt. Die vorliegende Arbeit diskutiert zunächst die konzeptionellen Grundlagen und theoretischen Modelle der Geldneutralität. Anschließend werden die zentralen theoretischen Annahmen und Aussagen der Neutralitätstheorie aus einer kritischen heterodoxen Perspektive hinterfragt. Es wird argumentiert, dass Geld eine nicht-neutrale Produktionskraft ist, die weder ökonomisch noch sozial neutral ist. Die Bedingungen, unter denen Geld verfügbar ist und zirkuliert, sind richtungsweisend für die ökonomische Entwicklung. Daher kann es auch kein neutrales Geld oder gar eine apolitische Geldpolitik geben. / The assumption of the neutrality of money is a widespread belief in mainstream economics. Accordingly, money is regarded as a neutral means of exchange that has no lasting effects on the real side of the economy. This study questions the conceptual validity of the neutrality assumption and its theoretical models arguing that its basic insights and predictions are problematic because they misrepresent the circumstances and conditions of the real economy. First, it discusses the conceptual grounds of the neutrality argument, which is based on the classical dichotomy approach and the notion of exogenous money. In a second step, it exposes the theoretical weaknesses of both the traditional and the contemporary versions of the neutral money models, that is, of the quantity theory and the rational-choice theory, by questioning its basic assumptions and implications. Finally, it argues from a critical heterodox perspective that rather than exogenous and neutral, money is endogenous and non-neutral, both in economic and social terms.

博士(経済学) / 乙第409号 / ii, x, 194p / Hitotsubashi University(一橋大学)

The thesis deals with monetary disequilibrium in the theory of endogenous money. In the new consensus economics, money is endogenous and passive. Money market is not considered and if yes, then only in an implicit equilibrium, whereas mechanisms ensuring this equilibrium are not discussed. In post-Keynesian economics, there is an explicit discussion, whether monetary disequilibrium may occur. Horizontalists argued for equality of money supply and money demand. On the other hand, arguments of some structuralists based on an independent demand for money function show that monetary disequilibrium may occur. The thesis therefore analyses mechanisms ensuring equilibrium in the money market. The only mechanism among them which enables the passivity of money is the reflux mechanism. However, it can not be regarded as universal since not all economic subjects which create demand for money are in debt to the banking system. For that reason accommodation of some factors of money demand function is necessary and money is endogenous and active. Econometric tests studying independent money demand and the consequent possibility of monetary disequilibrium based on Granger causality tests seem to be methodologically problematic and showing mixed results. Monetary disequilibrium can not be ruled out. Contemporary monetary policy based mainly on new consensus approach thus omits one channel of monetary policy transmission. Theoretical analysis suggests that monetary equilibrium has to be (at least partly) restored through changes in factors of money demand, which can lead to changes of other macroeconomic variables including inflation.

Submitted by Maria de Lourdes Mariano (lmariano@ufscar.br) on 2017-03-21T18:09:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 KLUTH_Fabian_2016.pdf: 29028293 bytes, checksum: 4c1628e5b0d9da5129a16fe0ade37304 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria de Lourdes Mariano (lmariano@ufscar.br) on 2017-03-21T18:10:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 KLUTH_Fabian_2016.pdf: 29028293 bytes, checksum: 4c1628e5b0d9da5129a16fe0ade37304 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria de Lourdes Mariano (lmariano@ufscar.br) on 2017-03-21T18:10:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 KLUTH_Fabian_2016.pdf: 29028293 bytes, checksum: 4c1628e5b0d9da5129a16fe0ade37304 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-21T18:10:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 KLUTH_Fabian_2016.pdf: 29028293 bytes, checksum: 4c1628e5b0d9da5129a16fe0ade37304 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-04 / Não recebi financiamento / In considering the evolution of credit and rising inflationary pressure observed in Brazil between 2007 and 2015 this research investigates how the Central Bank of Brazil, given its goal of inflation targeting, acted in providing reserves to support the observed credit growth in recent years. The econometric method used for analysis consisted of applying Granger causality tests using data from the Central Bank of Brazil. We conclude that the amount of money were defined by demand and had no impact on the determination of the nominal product. The central bank, in turn, provided the necessary reserves in accordance to the volume of deposits. Together, these results provide support to the notion of endogenous money supply in the period. / Considerando a evolução do crédito e crescente pressão inflacionária observados no Brasil entre 2007 e 2015 esta pesquisa investiga como o Banco Central do Brasil, dada sua missão de controlar a inflação, atuou na provisão de reservas para suportar o crescimento do crédito observado no período recente. O método econométrico empregado para análise foi composto por aplicação de testes de causalidade de Granger utilizando dados do Banco Central do Brasil. Resulta da pesquisa que a quantidade de moeda foi definida pelas necessidades da demanda e não teve implicações na determinação do produto nominal. O banco central, por sua vez, forneceu as reservas necessárias conforme o volume de depósitos. Em conjunto, estes resultados corroboram a noção de oferta monetária endógena no período.

The empirical results reached in this thesis contradict the traditional theoretical view of money as being exogenously introduced into an economy as a medium of exchange intended to reduce the transactions costs associated with barter. Instead money was endogenously created in the form of credit. Thus, the long run neutrality of money also is called into question. The varying quality of different kinds of money reflects the demand for them. If legal tender was of higher quality than private promissary notes, it was because the former were in greater demand. Concisely put, the market determines the value, and therefore the quality, of various kinds of money. The principal problem addressed in this thesis is how, during the expansive nineteenth century, it was possible to satisfy the ever growing need for credit and means of payment without sacrificing the fixed exchange rate. Particular attention is paid to the private note issuing banks, the so called Enskilda banks, that dominated the Swedish banking system throughout the nineteenth century. In addition to their note issuing, the Enskilda banks were characterized by unlimited owner liability. An examination of the ongoing political process from a rational choice perspective, indicates that initially the concept of note issuing Enskilda banks enjoyed wide spread support. They were considered to be a reasonable response to the problem of establishing a commercial banking system in an illiquid economy. The distribution of political and economic power in favor of the Crown and the Nobility included their control over the issuance of bank charters. The monopolistic policy they followed in this regard, however, resulted in growing hostility towards these. As a result, starting in the middle 1860's, a more liberal attitude towards the establishment of banks began to prevail. By the end of the nineteenth century, various political interest were able to engineer the revocation of the Enskilda banks’ note issuing rights. The special characteristics of the Enskilda banks, the right to issue bank notes and the unlimited liability of their owners, have caused them to be perceived as outdated, at least once Joint Stock banks were introduced. In contrast to the Enskilda banks, these were unable to issue notes but instead provided their owners with limited liability. The thesis demonstrates that, given the initial illiquidity of the Swedish economy, the Enskilda banks actually were the more efficient alternative. Indeed, the note issuing privileges of the Enskilda banks became one of the principal factors behind the development of liquid domestic capital markets. An empirical study that includes the most basic constraints faced by the nineteenth century Swedish economy, the demands of the specie standard and the general shortages of reliable means of payment and of credit, reveals that the Enskilda bank system can not, strictly speaking, be considered an example of free banking. Instead of holding specie reserves, the Enskilda banks backed their notes with central bank (Riksbank) notes. This was not because the public preferred Enskilda bank to Riksbank notes.  Rather it was the result of a monetary adverse selection process; Gresham’s Law.  Previously utilized, lower quality, means of payment were replaced by Enskilda bank notes. By accepting some of the discount costs, the Enskilda banks made their notes circulate at par with Riksbank notes. Thus a domestic specie exchange system was created. The note issuance of the Enskilda banks paved the way for the deposit based commercial banking system that followed, and it was essential for the monetization of the economy that occurred during the late 1860's. The long run expansion of the money supply was unrelated to growth in Riksbank reserves, specie holdings or the monetary base. Other countries operating under the specie standard also experienced monetary growth, indicating that the specie standard actually was a system of credit. Money supply, as measured in terms of Riksbank and Enskilda bank notes held by the public, eventually reflected the level of output (GDP).  VAR-tests indicated that annual changes in the level of Riksbank reserves preceded changes in the money supply which, in turn, preceded changes in the level of prices, thus supporting the price quantity theory. These results are summarized in a regression model that estimates domestic price movements as a function of current changes in international prices and GDP and of lagged changes in domestic prices and the money supply. The final chapter is an empirical analysis of the support provided to the Swedish banking system during the most severe financial crises of the nineteenth century.  Maintaining the specie standard was over riding goal of the Riksbank. In times of crises, this concern prevented the Bank from supporting the banking system in accord with the classical lender of last resort recipe; to inject liquidity and briefly suspend convertibility. The thesis argues that in a transitional economy, such as that of nineteenth century Sweden, the fixed exchange rate makes it impossible in times of crisis to support the banks at all costs. Doing so might well convert a banking crisis into a currency crisis. Indeed, this is exactly what has happened in various countries on several occasions during the late twentieth century. Instead the appropriate procedure for acting as lender of last resort in a transitional economy is to initially support the banks, but only as long as central bank reserves are not exhausted. Should the seriousness of the crisis make this insufficient, the authorities should then proceed to import high powered money as a way of supplementing their reserves. The possibility that such action will be needed makes it particularly important that the country’s public finances be kept in good order. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2003. Sammanfattning på engelska</p>

The complexity of credit-money is conceived as the central issue in the banking-macro nexus, which the author considers as a structural as well as process component of the evolving economy. This nexus is significant for the stability as well as the fragility of the economic system, because it connects the monetary with the real domain of economic production and consumption. The evolution of credit rules shapes economic networks between households, firms, banks, governments and central banks in space and time. The properties and characteristics of this evolutionary process are discussed in three sections. First, the author looks into the origins of the theory of money and its role for contemporary monetary economics. Second, he briefly discusses current theoretical foundations of top-down as well as bottom-up approaches to the banking-macro nexus, such as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and agent-based models. In the third part he suggests an evolutionary framework, building on a generic rule-based approach, to arrive at standards for bottom-up foundations in agent-based macroeconomic models with a banking sector. (author's abstract)