The construction of a dynamic, long term model of the Canadian energy sector is discussed, with examples of policy analysis done with the model. A linear process model of energy supply, conversion, distribution and end-use is linked to a model of the demands for services provided by energy in combination with other inputs. Nonlinear programming is used to find the supply-demand equilibrium by maximizing the discounted sum of consumers' plus producers' surplus over all periods — three five-year periods followed by three ten-year periods, from 1975 to 2020. Long-run marginal cost curves for coal, oil and natural gas are approximated by limiting the total amounts available at different cost levels. Upper limits on exports represent current policies and bring about a two price system (domestic and international) in the model. Two regions are distinguished throughout the model: the west, west of the Ontario-Manitoba border, is the main producer of coal, oil and gas; the east, with the larger energy demands, may import coal,, oil and gas from the west, or coal and oil from other countries, if necessary. The model may be used to analyze issues of energy pricing, the timing of the introduction of frontier resources and new technologies, the competitiveness and impacts of some new technologies, the impacts of various levels of energy exports, and the impacts of various potential policy constraints. A base case is developed, with the best estimates of all parameters. In addition, low demand and high demand cases are developed to test the sensitivity of conclusions to base case assumptions about economic and population growth. Some important conclusions are as follows. Frontier natural gas will not be needed until after the year 2000. Coal liquefaction will probably not be competitive, but coal gasification may play an important role after the year 2000. Nuclear power will be important in the east. However, a "no-new-nuclear" policy after 1985 would have negligible cost, but would force a switch in the east from electricity to oil with the tar sands playing an important role after the turn of the century. District heating by cogeneration with nuclear electricity in the east may increase nuclear safety by reducing reliance on nuclear power through the partial displacement of electric resistance heating. The electric automobile will probably not be competitive unless there are technical breakthroughs which lower the initial cost difference between the conventional and electric automobiles, or the road tax burden is less for electric than for conventional cars. / Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies / Graduate

The Statist Impulse: The Case of Petro-Canada seeks to find cause for the establishment and phenomenal growth of Canada's National Petroleum Corporation. The study argues that Petro-Canada is part and parcel of an historically constituted statist dynamic common to all advanced capitalist countries. Utilizing Marxist theory, the thesis contends that statism serves to resolve the problems or failures of capitalist economies, and is an essential prerequisite for the growth of capital. Such was the case with Petro-Canada. The international oil crisis of the early seventies, which resulted in so much economic disorder and concern about future energy security, caused governments to increasingly turn to state enterprise, in the hope of filling their national petroleum needs. The statist impulse was furthered by the fact that the private oil companies, particularly in the eyes of .the majority of governments, failed to respond to the crisis adequately or satisfactorily. After an examination of the western industrialized nations growing reliance on state capitalist forms for obtaining energy security, the thesis investigates Petro-Canada in more detail. The study develops the point that Canada's vigorous public enterprise tradition played no small role in the crown corporation's creation and success. It is then argued that although the NDP and nationalist wave of the late 1960's spawned the concept of a Petro-Canada, the Liberals and Federal state singlehandedly implemented the proposal. The Government wholeheartedly embraced Petro-Canada, not for the sake of the NDP, but for reasons having to do with state capitalism. Through Petro-Canada's subsequent participation in numerous joint ventures, the state has socialized part of the private oil industry's exploration and development risk so as to prod the petroleum corporations into greater activity. But the crown corporation has also acted as a substitute for the petroleum giants in certain areas, such as crude importation, so as to protect energy dependent general capital. The study contends that from a position of outright hostility toward Petro-Canada, the private sector gradually accepted state intervention into petroleum because of the lucrative joint ventures. Accordingly, it is argued that the state acted autonomously in setting-up Petro-Canada, without the support of the Canadian bourgeoisie. Finally, the study looks at the Tory effort to dismantle Petro-Canada and concludes that statism, in the form of the National Petroleum Corporation, proved too potent a force for the Conservatives to tackle. The issue of 'privatization' politically isolated the Tories from the majority of Canadians and became such a contentious internal issue that it divided and paralyzed the Conservative Government. In the end, Petro-Canada helped defeat the Tories and symbolizes the victory of state-capitalism over anti-statism. / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate

This thesis examines energy planning to reduce GHG emissions from cities. Examining federal government policy to reduce GHG emissions suggests that municipalities and provinces may be the better government levels for action. A review of types of municipal energy planning, and energy-GHG reduction plans from three cities shows different strategies and policies in implementation, and differing levels of success. Interviewing planners from these case-study cities provides critical insight into the challenges of implementing energy-GHG planning. The lessons learned show the best course of action for other jurisdictions, including the importance of an appropriate policy framework to support municipalities. Such a framework is suggested by this thesis. This research is meant to inform planners of best practices, challenges, opportunities, and courses of action for municipalities in formulating GHG reduction strategies.

This thesis examines energy planning to reduce GHG emissions from cities. Examining federal government policy to reduce GHG emissions suggests that municipalities and provinces may be the better government levels for action. A review of types of municipal energy planning, and energy-GHG reduction plans from three cities shows different strategies and policies in implementation, and differing levels of success. Interviewing planners from these case-study cities provides critical insight into the challenges of implementing energy-GHG planning. The lessons learned show the best course of action for other jurisdictions, including the importance of an appropriate policy framework to support municipalities. Such a framework is suggested by this thesis. This research is meant to inform planners of best practices, challenges, opportunities, and courses of action for municipalities in formulating GHG reduction strategies.

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the relative influence of state and societal actors on public policy and, specifically, to determine the potential for state autonomy in Canada. To advance this project, two 'paradigms' of state-society relations are developed from an analysis of a range of contending theories of state-society relations. These include Eric Nordlinger's state autonomy theory, elitism, pluralism, and Marxism. The paradigms are then applied to a case study of the design and implementation of the petroleum related elements of the National Energy Program. We conclude that the Canadian state can demonstrate a significant degree of autonomy from societal influence using various strategies and resources which are generally unavailable to societal actors. The specific findings of our case study are that in the development and implementation of the NEP the greatest impediments on the federal government's autonomy arose, not from business interests or public pressure, but from the opposition of other state actors and the impact of market forces and international economic conditions.

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This thesis compares policy instruments in the American and Canadian oil sectors from 1973 to 1977, the years immediately following the Arab oil embargo. Public policy has traditionally emphasized objectives over instruments even though instruments are at the heart of the policy making process. This case study helps to address this deficiency in the policy literature. It begins by providing a review of the instrument choice literature. Doern and Phidd's typology, which arranges instruments in terms of degrees of coercion, subsequently forms the basis for Chapter Two. Chapter Two's analysis of American and Canadian oil policy reveals that both countries agreed upon the security of supply objective. Furthermore, both deployed many similar instruments including suasion, direct expenditures, loans and guarantees, taxation, and regulation to reach the objective. However, one very important difference in instrument choice was made. While Canada deployed the most coercive policy instrument (public enterprise), the United States did not. Chapter Three offers three explanations for this specific difference. They are (1) differences in ideology, (2) market factors, and (3) differences in government institutions. The difference in ideology is the most important explanation. American ideology is decidedly more conservative than Canadian ideology. As such, American governments are less inclined to create government corporations, like national oil companies, than are Canadian governments. Furthermore, ideology is invariably reflected in a nation's party system, and neither of America's mainstream parties advocated the creation of an NOC while Canada's government party did. Market factors are also important. Countries with formidable industrial bases, such as the United States, are less likely to create public corporations than are those with weaker industrial bases. In the particular case of oil, Canada's oil industry was predominantly foreign-owned owing to insufficient pools of domestic capital. America's industry was overwhelmingly domestically-owned. Hence whereas Canada's NOC was the only oil company truly loyal to the Canadian people, an American NOC would have had to compete with home-based multinationals making it relatively unattractive to governing elites, and unnecessary to the American public. Finally, the differences between Canadian and American institutions are stark and important. Canada's parliamentary system of government fosters public corporations because corporations are easy to create and offer significant benefits to their political masters who can control them. The Canadian government set out to create an NOC in the mid-1970s and came across no obstacles. On the other hand, America's presidential system discourages public corporations. Not only did American Presidents and Congressmen not desire an NOC, but they were unable to legislate what comprehensive oil policy they did desire. / Arts, Faculty of / Political Science, Department of / Graduate