Thesis: M. Eng. in Logistics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2014. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (page 57). / Being able to quickly adapt to changes in the business environment has been widely acknowledged as essential for sustainable success by business leaders. Scenario planning is recognized as an effective tool used to explore ambiguous business environment dynamics over a long time horizon and identifying ways to translate uncertainty into potential future strategies. After the potential scenarios are developed and formulated into business strategies, the practical decision-making process then requires continuous review. Existing literature suggests that companies must actively monitor the business environment using appropriate indicators and understand their implications. This research specifically aims to develop a systematic, quantitative approach to identifying potential leading indicators for scenario monitoring. This approach is a framework that calculates correlation between various datasets from public databases, identifying, screening then consolidating the key driving forces of particular business scenarios. This process, in concert with a thorough qualitative assessment by business leader practitioners, enables an effective practice of scenario planning that allows the business to adapt its strategic long term plans in a constantly shifting global environment. / by Xia Xu. / M. Eng. in Logistics

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2009. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Cataloged from student submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 218-223). / Large, complex systems development programs in the Department of Defense are finding it more difficult to deliver desired capabilities to the end user on time and on budget than ever before. Evidence exists that almost all developmental programs on record are over cost and schedule, costing the Department and ultimately the U.S. taxpayer billions of dollars more than anticipated. Numerous studies over many decades have addressed various aspects of the problems plaguing these efforts with many recommendations. Unfortunately, most of these recommendations have been ignored or poorly implemented with limited success. This work embodies an exploratory systems approach to characterize the system of acquiring large, complex, socio-technological systems for the Department of Defense. Through a series of qualitative studies and in-depth interviews with individuals working in the Joint Capabilities Integration Development System (JCIDS), the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution (PPBE) process, and the Acquisition system, a model of the larger "enterprise of acquisition" or Acquisition System was developed. The model has a scope ranging from the very early beginnings of any program through the conclusion of developmental activities. The methodology used consisted of stringing together the individual pieces of the system defined by probabilistic distributions of time and corresponding probabilistic decision points into a model ideal for discrete-event simulation. An extensive program of verification and validation of the model was carried out to increase confidence in the model and its simulation outcomes. / (cont.) Experimental system interventions, designed to mimic potential policy interventions and/or system changes, were introduced into the model and the corresponding outcomes analyzed. Results show several interventions have varying degrees of influence and suggest no single antidote exists for solving the problems related to Acquisition. Furthermore, many of the outcomes of the system can be described as emergent behaviors versus problems stemming from poor program management, program risk management, or requirements management. / by Joseph Robert Wirthlin. / Ph.D.

Thesis: M. Eng. in Logistics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2015. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 112-114). / Retail fashion sales inherently involve the promotion and presentation of products that need to be differentiated from all other products in the crowded market. While the products themselves can exhibit some unique characteristics, the actual presentation of the products can help to make them appear unique and lend additional perceived value to them so that consumers will purchase them. Such a marketing technique requires an extreme commitment to creativity in terms of the methods of display and the associated non-sale items used to showcase the products available for purchase. For a particular fashion retailer, this manifests itself in the acquisition of specialty items that often become permanent elements of the display inventory. The commitment to the creative process is often at odds with the logistics required to procure, transport, install and store the display items which has resulted in a number of critical issues for the retailer. The resulting operational difficulties have reduced efficiency and increased the time required for logistics operations, and create unsafe conditions for the logistics team members. This thesis takes a closer look at the problem and its root causes, and suggests specific actions to ameliorate the current circumstances and build a foundation for improved operations in the future. Through analysis of mini-case studies and the behavioral aspects behind them, the thesis determines the root causes of the issues and identifies strategies to address them. The thesis identifies the overcrowded warehouse as the nexus between the creative and logistics teams and addresses the capacity issue within as the quintessential symptom of the problems facing the retailer. The thesis concludes by detailing recommendations for process improvement and the benefits therein. / by Collin Brady and Joseph H. Williams, Jr. / M. Eng. in Logistics

Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2010. / Cataloged from student submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 86-88). / Our thesis introduces a supply chain framework catered for startup companies. Startup companies face unique circumstances such as constraints on financial and human resources, and greater uncertainty in demand. From our work with XL Hybrids, a startup company that hybridizes aftermarket vehicles, as well as interviews and literature review, we have attempted to distill supply chain strategies that can be applied to startup companies. To plan XL Hybrids' supply chain, we developed models for the following aspects of their supply chain: production scheduling, capacity planning, inventory policy, and component distribution. By running different demand and pricing scenarios, we gained an understanding of the impact of these variables on the four aspects of XL Hybrid's supply chain. Based on the scenario analysis and supply chain framework that we developed, we recommend that XL Hybrids be conservative with capacity expansion while strategically sourcing key components after considering volume discounts and different distribution methods. / by Marcus S. Causton and Jianmin Wu. / M.Eng.in Logistics

Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2010. / Cataloged from student submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 63-64). / Traffic, construction and other road hazards impact the on-time performance of companies that operate delivery fleets. This study examines how incorporating traffic patterns in vehicle route development compares with standard, deterministic methods. We seek to understand how using historical data improves both planning and overall delivery efficiency. Our analysis contrasts manifests that were developed by an industry standard routing software tool with projections that use traffic data by benchmarking them against actual routes run by drivers. In addition to evaluating the differences between route planning tools, we explore why those differences exist, including how uncertainty is incorporated. Evidence suggests that incorporating traffic patterns into vehicle routing does produce improved solutions. Needless to say, the delivery process needs to be evaluated holistically. Our recommendations involve the various steps for creating and executing a route. Operational considerations, the potential for improving customer service, and areas for further exploration are discussed. This thesis is being conducted with sponsorship from a leading consumer products company and in coordination with the CarTel mobile sensing data project at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). / by Melody J. Dickinson and Jillian Leifer. / M.Eng.in Logistics

Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2011. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (p. [41]-[42]). / Introduction: Partners In Health (PIH) is an international, non-profit healthcare organization with operations in several countries on multiple continents. PIH focuses on providing healthcare treatment to people living in some of the poorest places in the world, and has been operating in Haiti since 1985. At that time, PIH established a small community clinic in the central Haiti village of Cange. Today that facility has grown to become an entire medical complex, featuring a 104-bed, full-service hospital with two operating rooms, adult and pediatric wards, and clinics treating a variety of diseases and issues, from women's health to infectious diseases. In addition, Zamni Lasante ("Partners In Health" in Haitian Creyeol) has also expanded its operations to 11 other sites across Haiti's Central Plateau and beyond (Figure 1). Today, ZL ranks as one of the largest nongovernmental health care providers in Haiti - serving a catchment area of 1.2 million across the Central Plateau and the Lower Artibonite. ZL employs over 4,000 people, almost all of them Haitians, including doctors, nurses and community health workers (Zamni Lasante/ Haiti). From its beginnings 25 years ago, PIH/ZL has grown tremendously, and recent years have been no exception. Since 2004, patient encounters have increased almost threefold, from 0.9 million to 2.6 million, and the number of clinical sites has almost doubled. This growth has corresponded to an increase in drugs and supplies. In 2006, approximately 1000 m3 of drugs and supplies were moved through the system. Only two years later, in 2008, that number had more than doubled to 2200 m3 . This significant increase has greatly strained the underlying supply chain. / by Scott C. Alexander. / M.Eng.in Logistics

Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2011. / Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 173-177). / In the knowledge economy there is a need to develop new methods for processing Internet-based information to achieve growth. This is particularly applicable in complex systems where fact and perception of reality influence each other, and social information systems bridge the two. Social information systems are systems which allow participants to produce, share, integrate and comment on content. In making decisions within complex systems, there is often not one correct decision, and statistically oriented tools provide the ability to assess alternatives. This study provides a set of algorithms and associated strategies for doing this, focused on blogs as a representative social information system. The algorithms automate the searching of blogs in a specific domain, and collection of time-series statistical data over a multi-year period around the co-occurrence of various terms within the domain. The process developed in this study uses the system representation phase of the Complex Large-Scale Interconnected Open Socio-technical System (CLIOS) process to interpret the statistical data. Subject matter experts comment on which specific statistical insights shall be used to adjust the system representation and thus lead to new technology strategy decisions being made. Three case studies were conducted with in-depth blog data analysis and expert interviews - the domains were cloud computing in industry, broadband expansion in Kenya, and renewable energy study in Abu Dhabi. Each case study produced a quantitative assessment of the blog analysis, and also a set of technology strategy areas which would benefit from this research. The intellectual contribution of this research includes enhancements to the theory of social information system around statistical analysis methods and extensions to the CLIOS process, enhancements to the study of blogs and the ability to study broader information sources, an implementation pattern for studying other domains, and enhanced technology forecasting. This research set the stage for five areas of broader impact: automatically reviewing information without reading it, gaining early awareness of insights, connecting experts and amateurs in a field, understanding public perception in a field, and building research tools for broader research. / by Satwiksai Seshasai. / Ph. D.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 210-213). / As engineering systems become more complex, the roles involved in developing and managing such systems also become more complex. Thus, there is increasing interest in educating and training engineering professionals to think more systemically. In particular, there is an increasing need to accelerate the development of senior systems engineers. As new educational degree programs in systems rapidly emerge and as companies scurry to establish systems training programs to meet this need, fundamental questions still remain about how systems thinking develops in engineers. Increased understanding of the mechanisms that develop systems thinking will enable effective and efficient development of senior systems professionals. After reviewing related literature, an exploratory and inductive study was designed to gather data on enablers, barriers, and precursors to systems thinking development in engineers. In a field study conducted primarily in the United States aerospace sector, 205 interviews were conducted in 10 host companies. Senior systems engineers were studied to better understand how they developed systems thinking, and information was collected on company procedures for developing systems engineers. Using interview and survey data, comparisons were made of two control groups and senior systems engineers. / (cont.) Proven stellar systems thinkers were also interviewed. To summarize the results, even though systems thinking definitions diverge, there is consensus on primary mechanisms that enable or obstruct systems thinking development in engineers. In order to reconcile the divergent definitions observed, a systems thinking framework, definition, and accompanying conceptual illustration are given. The data show that the primary mechanisms that enable systems thinking development include experiential learning, specific individual characteristics, and a supporting environment. This document defines the research space on this topic and suggests applications for the results. Better understanding of systems thinking development provides a foundation for educational interventions and employee development in systems thinking for engineering professionals across industry, government, and academia. / by Heidi Leoti Davidz. / Ph.D.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2008. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 110-112). / The anthrax mailings of 2001 increased public and government awareness to the threat of bio-terrorism. Particularly vulnerable to a bio-terrorist event are large indoor facilities such as convention centers, office buildings, transportation centers, and sports arenas with their high population densities and limited physical security. Under heightened threat levels deploying bio-aerosol sensors inside these facilities provides added protection to the occupants. The challenge is determining the number and placement of sensors needed to guarantee the detection of a release inside a particular building. The methodology proposed here aims to simplify the analysis of contamination transport within buildings and provide first-order sensing requirements for dose dependant sensors in large facilities. A reduced-order model is developed that allows buildings to be subdivided into larger sections while maintaining a higher degree of accuracy than building analysis models with the same level of granularity. The problem is formulated as a network model with the nodes representing possible sensor locations and the path lengths equal to the reduction in dose as a contaminant travels between sensor locations. Techniques borrowed from network theory are then used to determine the minimum cost set of sensors that provides full building coverage. The reduced-order model estimates sensing requirements in hours or days for problems that would take months to analyze with fine grained multi-zone models and that are too large to be considered with computational fluid dynamics. Models of an office building, a convention center, and an airport terminal are constructed and their underlying network graph is employed to understand how the structure of the indoor environment affects the placement of sensors. / (cont.) Additionally, the equations derived to formulate the network model are used to quantify the optimal tradeoff between sensor sensitivity and cost as a function of building parameters. Future efforts will continue on this path, focusing on how easily discernible building properties such as size, HVAC layout, and air exchange rates can be used to predict the sensing requirements in large indoor spaces. / by Scott B. Van Broekhoven. / S.M.

Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2014. / This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections. / Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis. / Includes bibliographical references (pages 261-287). / In this thesis we present an analysis of the dynamics of industry-university relationships tracing the origin of the relationship and its changes over time as the firm's strategies evolve. We analyze the strategic trajectories of nine European and North American forest products companies, distilling four generic strategies, and linking those strategies to each company's university relationships as judged by publications records, academic trajectories of the company's personnel, and interviews with company managers. We found that firms are likely to form new university relationships when (1) integrating new positions in the value chain, (2) diversifying their industrial base, or (3) internationalizing the manufacturing base. When firms narrowed their business and geographical scope, however, they reduced university links. We found that building an industry-university relationship was a gradual process. Periods of strategic stability and bidirectional people flows strengthened these relationships. Changes in the firm's CEO, however, signaled modifications in the firm's university relationships. These modifications were contingent on the strategy pursued by the firm and pre-existing industryuniversity systems. Based on those findings, we derive a framework to describe how industry-university relationships evolve with changes in firm strategy. The thesis shows that changes in corporate strategy affect the formation and evolution of university relationships, an idea generalizable to other industries. The strategic change process of forest products firms, however, has features that may be applicable only to large, commodity-grade capital-intensive industries. In particular when confronted by change, forest products firms did not always evolve towards higher positions in the value chain, sometimes moving down this chain divesting internal technological capabilities. These "competency-destroying" cycles tended to coincide with periods of economic downturn. Because of the dissimilarities in the time scale for change, universities can act as "knowledge buffers" for of these cyclical industries, helping firms to regain lost capabilities and allowing corporate technologies time to mature despite changes in firm strategy. / by Julio Alberto Pertuzé Salas. / Ph. D.