Includes bibliographical references. / Natural sacred sites are areas protected by traditional groups as a point of connection to the land. They are also acknowledged for their disproportionate biodiversity contribution. These natural remnant patches have, however, recently come under threat from surrounding anthropogenic land-uses. This study aims to establish the spatial landscape pattern and associated land-uses surrounding the Venda sacred site of Thathe Forest in north-eastern Limpopo, South Africa, while investigating links to landscape governance. A terrain analysis of the study area is conducted using the thematic layers of geology and soils, gradient, aspect, and hydrology. This analysis is contrasted with a land-cover classification of the study area, further linking results to land-use decision-making.

Cities are increasingly important actors in the current International System. Cities fall under the jurisdiction of States where they play a fundamental role in the making and consolidation of emerging powers. In today’s State-centred International System, cities are underexamined in the field of foreign policy, a domain that is exclusively that of national governments. Using the cases of Colombia (Bogotá) and South Africa (Johannesburg), this thesis draws from multilingual sources to examine the role of cities in the foreign policy of emerging powers of the Global South. An interdisciplinary approach indicates that, by drawing together debates across International Relations and Urban Studies literature, there is little to no place for the conceptual and operational cross pollination necessary to engage the increasing importance of cities in the emerging powers of the Global South. The weak interface between cities and States in foreign policy is thus failing to inform local-national government interactions over global positioning and masks critical national actors in the evolution of cities. Through a geopolitical analysis, this thesis engages the conceptual and operational ambiguity around 'emerging powers’ by demonstrating how at both the national and city scale notions of 'power resources’, 'leadership’ and 'international recognition’ are actualised in the emerging powers of Colombia and South Africa. By tracking the ways that Bogotá and Johannesburg operate internationally, cities are, despite the lack of formal acknowledgement or endorsement of the nations’ foreign affairs machinery, shown to be crucial contributors to their countries’ emergence in the world. An analysis of primary sources in both Colombia and South Africa shows a mismatch between the city and the State in foreign policy caused by dynamics occurring both at national and local levels. The constitutional and legal ambiguities on decentralisation and foreign policy found in Colombia and South Africa make it extremely difficult to determine the how far sub-national entities can go in their burgeoning international engagements. The State-centred approach to foreign policy that is found in both countries contributes greatly to a general disregard for the city in international relations. Finally, the thesis reveals how the increased importance of cities in the global agenda and the proliferation of international associations of cities provides emerging cities such as Bogotá or Johannesburg with an alternative space in which to defend their own city interests without the help of the national governments. The thesis concludes by demonstrating that, while it is important that national governments make sure cities have a voice in the International System, changes also need to be made at the domestic level, both in national and local governments, in order to achieve functioning levels of understanding and co-operation between the city and the State in the making and implementation of the foreign policy of emerging powers.

Includes bibliographical references. / Customary systems of marine resource governance have gained increasing attention internationally in the past three decades. Notwithstanding this, and despite the Constitutional recognition of customary governance and customary law in South Africa, the post-apartheid legislative reforms in the fisheries sector have failed to recognise customary systems of marine resource governance. Drawing on a case-study of the Dwesa-Cwebe community in the Eastern Cape, South Africa, this research aimed to describe and understand the customary marine resource governance system of this community and its relationship to living customary law. It explores how this customary system of marine resource governance has interfaced with statutory and other systems of law in the past and how it continues to develop in the current context. The findings from this research highlight the distinctive nature of the customary system of marine resource governance practiced by the community of Dwesa-Cwebe and their expressions of living customary law embedded in this governance system. The nature of this system is foundationally different to that of a Western statutory governance system. This customary system of governance has interacted with the statutory system for over a century, in part distorted by this system but retaining its integrity. In the context of the Constitutional recognition of customary systems of governance and customary law, this governance system now requires understanding and recognition in a new system of marine resource governance in South Africa. This thesis explores the contribution that this system of customary governance can make towards promoting socially just smallscale fisheries in South Africa. It argues that harmonisation of the statutory and customary system of marine resource governance demands an approach to governance theory and practice that is able to imagine an alternative ‘ecology of governance’.

Includes bibliography. / Investigating the recreational carrying capacity of a new coastal national park in South Africa was the initial problem to be addressed. However, an examination of the concept and attempts to operationalize it shows clearly that it is illusory. Instead, the problem is conceived of as a process in which decisions about the allocation of recreation opportunities in the landscape must be made. ·The dissertation examines the complexities of decision-making in the face of multiple objectives, a spectrum of values, the uncertainties of predicting environmental impacts and the influence of the subjective values and preferences of decision makers. This leads to the conclusion that a framework is required to guide the recreation opportunity allocation decision process. This framework is to be systematic, comprehensive and above all, explicit. The subjective nature of the decision process is given overt recognition, and the role of science in environmental decision-making put in perspective. A tiered recreation planning system is proposed. At the scale of a single area such as a national park, two levels of planning are seen as necessary. The dissertation is largely concerned with elaborating an area-level procedure for allocating recreation "packages" or opportunities in the landscape. The procedure proposed combines the approach of the Limits of Acceptable Change planning system with techniques from decision analysis, to structure the subjective aspects of the process, and techniques of land evaluation to systematize the ecological basis for recreation planning in landscapes of particular conservation importance. A second, detailed level of planning at the site and recreation activity scale is proposed as being necessary, but is not developed further in the dissertation. The Limits of Acceptable Change process defines a range of recreation opportunity classes in terms of social and resource conditions and managerial approaches necessary to maintain these conditions. Environmental quality standards for each class are formulated to monitor compliance with the objectives for each class. These recreation opportunity classes must be allocated in the landscape. A decision tree is constructed to expose the actual process by which recreation opportunity classes are spatially designated. The decision-tree comprises a tiered series of questions, the answers to which are decided by explicitly defined decision rules or criteria. The basis of these decision rules are the analyst's interpretation of the data available on the system. This decision-making process was tested on the Weskus National Park at Langebaan on the Cape West coast of South Africa. It was found to be effective in allocating recreation opportunities in the landscape, and offers a defensible planning strategy for conservation agencies operating under time and financial constraints in the face of an increasingly environmentally aware and articulate public.

This study aims to increase our perspective of the responses of Southern African climate to soil moisture forcings by drying or moistening the land surface using a regional climate model version 3, RegCM3. The sensitivity and response capabilities to soil moisture perturbations of the model are investigated. This includes identification of regions that may be influenced differently by antecedent soil moisture conditions as well as understand the implications of soil moisture conditions on frequency and intensity of rainfall. Exploratory analyses of soil moisture retention and comparison of climate model parameters with available observations or re-analysis data is done. The study then seeks out the large-scale atmospheric forcings under which the regional climate explicitly responds to perturbations in soil moisture using self-organising map technique. To investigate these underlying processes of atmosphere-soil moisture interactions a series of RegCM3 model experiments utilizing wet, dry and normal soil moisture conditions were designed. The experiments are based on changing the soil moisture field capacity in the RegCM3. The control simulations are run with RegCM3 nested in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 2 data and using Emanuel convective scheme for the selected six summers (dry seasons - 1991/92, 1994/95 and 1997/98; wet seasons - 1995/96, 1996/97 and 1998/99). September to March simulations are performed with August as the spin-up month. The respective dry and wet soil moisture perturbation simulations are then initialised at field capacities of 25% (wilting) and 75% (saturation) within the land surface model, Bio-sphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme. From the sensitivity studies, anomalously dry (wet) conditions have positive feedbacks with similar dry (wet) synoptic forcings of the regional climate. Anomalous dry forcing persists for longer and exacerbates the changes in the regional anticyclonic circulation especially during a drought or dry period. Soil moisture perturbations mostly affect the lower troposphere. Surface variables analysed especially surface temperature show strong responses to the soil moisture perturbations under all synoptic forcings but rainfall characteristics are strongly influenced by large-scale synoptic circulations. However, in some areas over southwestern parts of the region a weak feedback which can be either positive or negative depending on geographical and climatological setting has been detected.

This thesis explores the utility of the MM5 regional climate model iii product big a detailed wind climatology for South Africa in the context of wind power applications. Given the background of limited available computational resources a sophisticated temporal subsetting algorithm is developed and applied. The goal here is to allow a high resolution 18 by 18km simulation to be carried out over only 365 days of historical records (20 March 1996 until 19 March 1997), yet ensure that it is possible to construct a reasonably accurate climatology from such a short time period because it represents the most typical year available. Throughout the research the modelâs sensitivity towards different boundary layer and cwnulus parametrisations as well as observational and grid nudging is investigated in depth. New error metrics are specifically designed and applied based on 17 reliable lOni weather stations around the country with the specific purpose of evaluating model skill with respect to the wind patterns that are important for wind turbines. An optimal model configuration is established by using the Pleim Xiu land surface scheme coupled with the Atmospheric Convective Model for the planetary boundary layer, in addition to the Kain Fiitsch II cumulus parametrisation and observational wind nudging. The model is then integrated at 18km for the entire country and the results validated in detail. It is found that average wind speeds are within 0.2 + 0.7ms (68% confidence interval) and that the daily cycle, which constitutes the largest part of the observed variance, is predicted to within 18% + 20% of amplitude and lii of timing at coastal sites.

Includes abstract. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 213-247). / This thesis uses the Selous-Niassa wildlife corridor as a lens through which the process of constructing bioregions can be understood and the effects of that process on society properly evaluated. It specifically investigates the corridor as a cog in the creation of a bioregion in southeastern Tanzania, namely, the Selous-Niassa transfrontier conservation area. The study was motivated by claims that the creation of bioregions across international borders places the protection and conservation of biodiversity at the appropriate scale, and that bioregions of this type are beneficial for nature conservation and society. Though the study appreciates the ecological rationales for trans-border conservation, its focus is on the social side of the process. The main social claims for bioregions in general, and transfrontier conservation in particular, are that the establishment of cross-border protected areas, including transfrontier conservation areas, leads to the removal of colonial borders which disrupt ecological systems and local communities.

Includes abstract. / Includes bibliographical references. / Climate change is evident in the Western Cape province of South Africa, particularly in observed trends in average temperatures. Further increases are expected in the future, based on General Circulation Model (GCM) projections, as highlighted in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th (and previous) assessment reports. Whilst it is recognised that rises in temperature coupled with changes in rainfall will impact wheat yields (the province’s dominant field crop), little information exists to guide adaptation planning, especially on the potential range of climate change impacts on dryland winter wheat production. Furthermore the Western Cape is a highly diverse region with regard to geology, soils, topography, climatic influences and agricultural systems. Future climate change therefore, is likely to have different impacts in different zones of the province where wheat is produced. To address this heterogeneity, the APSIM crop model was applied to assess future climate impacts on wheat in 21 relatively homogeneous farming areas (RHFAs) across the province.

Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 178-191).

Drought and climate change pose a threat to southern African vegetation. This study examines the response of southern African vegetation to drought in both past and future climates. Multiyear and multi-simulation datasets from three dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), namely, Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4), Community Land Model version 4 with Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrology (CLM4VIC), and Organising Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems designed by Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (ORCHIDEE-LSCE). These three DGVMs and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) were analyzed for the study. The DGVM simulations were forced with the reanalysis climate dataset from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Climatic Research Unit - NCEP (CRUNCEP). The simulated climate results were evaluated with observation datasets from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), while the simulated vegetation index (i.e. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) were evaluated with NDVI data from the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS). Meteorological droughts were analyzed at different timescales (1- to 18-month timescales), using two drought indexes: the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The responses of vegetation to drought were quantified by means of Pearson Correlation Analysis. The DGVMs were applied to study the sensitivity of vegetation to fire, while the CESM was used to project impact of climate change on the characteristics of southern African vegetation in the future (up to the year 2100) under the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario, focusing on impacts at 1.5oC and 2.0oC global warming levels (GWLs). Analysis of the observed data shows that the spatial distribution of vegetation across southern Africa is more influenced by the rainfall distribution than by the temperature distribution. The observed correlation between drought index and vegetation index is higher than 0.8 over southeastern part of the region at 3-month drought timescale, and there is no difference between the spatial distribution of the correlation between the SPEI and the vegetation index, and between the SPI and the vegetation index. The three DGVMs failed to capture the response of vegetation to drought; however, the CLM4 shows the best performance while ORCHIDEELSCE fared the worst of the three. The CLM4 simulation show that fire strongly influences growth of vegetation over the summer rainfall region but it has weak influence over vegetation in the western arid zone. The CESM strongly captures the spatial patterns of precipitation and the vegetation index across southern Africa, but it overestimates the magnitudes of the vegetation index across the region, except in Namibia and Angola. The CESM also underestimates the correlation between drought indexes with vegetation, and the timescales at which the vegetation respond to droughts. The CESM projects an increase in the drought intensity as a result of an increased temperature across southern African biomes. However the increase in drought intensity is more pronounced with the SPEI than with the SPI. CESM also projects a future decrease in the vegetation index (i.e. NDVI) in the region except in the dry savanna biome. The impacts of 1.5oC GWLs on the vegetation fluxes vary throughout southern Africa, and the magnitudes of changes in the vegetation fluxes are affected by a further increase in global warming over the region. While there is a good agreement among the CESM simulations on the projected changes in vegetation fluxes across the biomes, the uncertainty in the projections is higher with 1.5oC than with 2.0oC GWL. The results of the study can be applied to mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change on southern African vegetation. Specific mitigation efforts that could be applied to reduce the impacts of droughts and climate change are watershed management, improved vegetation management, impact monitoring, environmental awareness, and remote sensing tools.