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Design and Maintenance of Event Forecasting SystemsMuthiah, Sathappan 26 March 2021 (has links)
With significant growth in modern forms of communication such as social media and micro- blogs we are able to gain a real-time understanding into events happening in many parts of the world. In addition, these modern forms of communication have helped shed light into the increasing instabilities across the world via the design of anticipatory intelligence systems [45, 43, 20] that can forecast population level events like civil unrest, disease occurrences with reasonable accuracy. Event forecasting systems are generally prone to become outdated (model drift) as they fail to keep-up with constantly changing patterns and thus require regular re-training in order to sustain their accuracy and reliability. In this dissertation we try to address some of the issues associated with design and maintenance of event forecasting systems in general. We propose and showcase performance results for a drift adaptation technique in event forecasting systems and also build a hybrid system for event coding which is cognizant of and seeks human intervention in uncertain prediction contexts to maintain a good balance between prediction-fidelity and cost of human effort. Specifically we identify several micro-tasks for event coding and build separate pipelines for each with uncertainty estimation capabilities and thereby be able to seek human feedback whenever required for each micro-task independent of the rest. / Doctor of Philosophy / Event forecasting systems help reduce violence, loss/damage to humans and property. They find applicability in supply chain management, prioritizing citizen grievances, designing mea- sures to control violence and minimize disruptions and also in applications like health/tourism by providing timely travel alerts. Several issues exist with the design and maintenance of such event forecasting systems in general. Predictions from such systems may drift away from ground reality over time if not adapted to various shifts (or changes) in event occurrence patterns in real-time. A continuous source of ground-truth events is of paramount necessity for the continuous maintenance of forecasting systems. However ground-truth events used for training may not be reliable but often information about their uncertainty is not reflected in the systems that are used to build the ground truth. This dissertation focuses on addressing such issues pertaining to design and maintenance of event forecasting systems. We propose a framework for online drift-adaptation and also build machine learning methods capable of modeling and capturing uncertainty in event detection systems. Finally we propose and built a hybrid event coding system that can capture the best of both automated and manual event coders. We breakdown the overall event coding pipeline into several micro-tasks and propose individual methods for each micro-task. Each method is built with the capability to know what it doesn't know and thus is capable of balancing quality vs throughput based on available human resources.
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A Cost-Effective Semi-Automated Approach for Comprehensive Event ExtractionSaraf, Parang 26 April 2018 (has links)
Automated event extraction from free text remains an open problem, particularly when the goal is to identify all relevant events. Manual extraction is currently the only alternative for comprehensive and reliable extraction. Therefore, it is required to have a system that can comprehensively extract events reported in news articles (high recall) and is also scalable enough to handle a large number of articles.
In this dissertation, we explore various methods to develop an event extraction system that can mitigate these challenges. We primarily investigate three major problems related to event extraction as follows. (i) What are the strengths and weaknesses of the automated event extractors? A thorough understanding of what can be automated with high success and what leads to common pitfalls is crucial before we could develop a superior event extraction system. (ii) How can we build a hybrid event extraction system that can bridge the gap between manual and automated event extraction? Hybrid extraction is a semi-automated approach that uses an ecosystem of machine learning models along with a carefully designed user interface for extracting events. Since this method is semi-automated it also requires a meticulous understanding of user behavior in order to identify tasks that humans can perform with ease while diverting the more tedious task to the machine learning methods (iii) Finally, we explore methods for displaying extracted events that could simplify the analytical and inference generation processes for an analyst. We particularly aim to develop visualizations that would allow analysts can perform macro and micro level analysis of significant societal events. / Ph. D. / News articles provide information about who did what to whom, when, where, and why. Extracting this structured information from news articles can allow scientific evaluation of widely believed information. However, curating these databases of structured information is not a trivial task. Currently there are two main approaches: manual and automated. Manually curation is not scalable due to labor costs: adding more humans to perform analysis is prohibitively expensive and time consuming. The alternative approach is ‘Automated Extraction’, wherein, machine learning algorithms extract events on their own without any human assistance. Even though this approach can easily scale to work with a large number of articles, it frequently misclassifies events.
In this dissertation, we present EMBERS AutoGSR, a framework for comprehensively extracting ‘protest’ events reported in news articles using Hybrid Event Extraction. In the hybrid approach, we use an ecosystem of Filtering, Ranking, and Recommendation models to determine if an article is reporting a protest and, if so, proceed to identify and encode specific characteristics of the event, such as who protested when, where and why? These extracted events are then displayed on an interactive web-based interface that allows manual validation. This manual validation, in turn, helps the automated event extractors learn and evolve from user feedback and error correction. The interface is carefully designed with an aim to minimize the manual effort required for user validation, thereby making it feasible and viable to work with a large number of articles.
EMBERS AutoGSR operated 24x7 for a year from October 2015 through September 2016, during which it extracted protest events from news articles that were collected from 19 countries across 8 languages. These extracted events were validated by 12 subject matter experts. The system was evaluated by an independent third party, MITRE corporation. They compared EMBERS AutoGSR events with events that were manually extracted by their team of political scientists. AutoGSR achieved a recall of 0.82 out of 1, and reduced the manual effort required for event extraction by 72%, thereby making the system extremely reliable and scalable.
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Information Extraction from dataSottovia, Paolo 22 October 2019 (has links)
Data analysis is the process of inspecting, cleaning, extract, and modeling data with the intention of extracting useful information in order to support users in their decisions. With the advent of Big Data, data analysis was becoming more complicated due to the volume and variety of data. This process begins with the acquisition of the data and the selection of the data that is useful for the desiderata analysis. With such amount of data, also expert users are not able to inspect the data and understand if a dataset is suitable or not for their purposes. In this dissertation, we focus on five problems in the broad data analysis process to help users find insights from the data when they do not have enough knowledge about its data. First, we analyze the data description problem, where the user is looking for a description of the input dataset. We introduce data descriptions: a compact, readable and insightful formula of boolean predicates that represents a set of data records. Finding the best description for a dataset is computationally expensive and task-specific; we, therefore, introduce a set of metrics and heuristics for generating meaningful descriptions at an interactive performance. Secondly, we look at the problem of order dependency discovery, which discovers another kind of metadata that may help the user in the understanding of characteristics of a dataset. Our approach leverages the observation that discovering order dependencies can be guided by the discovery of a more specific form of dependencies called order compatibility dependencies. Thirdly, textual data encodes much hidden information. To allow this data to reach its full potential, there has been an increasing interest in extracting structural information from it. In this regard, we propose a novel approach for extracting events that are based on temporal co-reference among entities. We consider an event to be a set of entities that collectively experience relationships between them in a specific period of time. We developed a distributed strategy that is able to scale with the largest on-line encyclopedia available, Wikipedia. Then, we deal with the evolving nature of the data by focusing on the problem of finding synonymous attributes in evolving Wikipedia Infoboxes. Over time, several attributes have been used to indicate the same characteristic of an entity. This provides several issues when we are trying to analyze the content of different time periods. To solve it, we propose a clustering strategy that combines two contrasting distance metrics. We developed an approximate solution that we assess over 13 years of Wikipedia history by proving its flexibility and accuracy. Finally, we tackle the problem of identifying movements of attributes in evolving datasets. In an evolving environment, entities not only change their characteristics, but they sometimes exchange them over time. We proposed a strategy where we are able to discover those cases, and we also test our strategy on real datasets. We formally present the five problems that we validate both in terms of theoretical results and experimental evaluation, and we demonstrate that the proposed approaches efficiently scale with a large amount of data.
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Role of semantic indexing for text classificationSani, Sadiq January 2014 (has links)
The Vector Space Model (VSM) of text representation suffers a number of limitations for text classification. Firstly, the VSM is based on the Bag-Of-Words (BOW) assumption where terms from the indexing vocabulary are treated independently of one another. However, the expressiveness of natural language means that lexically different terms often have related or even identical meanings. Thus, failure to take into account the semantic relatedness between terms means that document similarity is not properly captured in the VSM. To address this problem, semantic indexing approaches have been proposed for modelling the semantic relatedness between terms in document representations. Accordingly, in this thesis, we empirically review the impact of semantic indexing on text classification. This empirical review allows us to answer one important question: how beneficial is semantic indexing to text classification performance. We also carry out a detailed analysis of the semantic indexing process which allows us to identify reasons why semantic indexing may lead to poor text classification performance. Based on our findings, we propose a semantic indexing framework called Relevance Weighted Semantic Indexing (RWSI) that addresses the limitations identified in our analysis. RWSI uses relevance weights of terms to improve the semantic indexing of documents. A second problem with the VSM is the lack of supervision in the process of creating document representations. This arises from the fact that the VSM was originally designed for unsupervised document retrieval. An important feature of effective document representations is the ability to discriminate between relevant and non-relevant documents. For text classification, relevance information is explicitly available in the form of document class labels. Thus, more effective document vectors can be derived in a supervised manner by taking advantage of available class knowledge. Accordingly, we investigate approaches for utilising class knowledge for supervised indexing of documents. Firstly, we demonstrate how the RWSI framework can be utilised for assigning supervised weights to terms for supervised document indexing. Secondly, we present an approach called Supervised Sub-Spacing (S3) for supervised semantic indexing of documents. A further limitation of the standard VSM is that an indexing vocabulary that consists only of terms from the document collection is used for document representation. This is based on the assumption that terms alone are sufficient to model the meaning of text documents. However for certain classification tasks, terms are insufficient to adequately model the semantics needed for accurate document classification. A solution is to index documents using semantically rich concepts. Accordingly, we present an event extraction framework called Rule-Based Event Extractor (RUBEE) for identifying and utilising event information for concept-based indexing of incident reports. We also demonstrate how certain attributes of these events e.g. negation, can be taken into consideration to distinguish between documents that describe the occurrence of an event, and those that mention the non-occurrence of that event.
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Information extraction from pharmaceutical literatureBatista-Navarro, Riza Theresa Bautista January 2014 (has links)
With the constantly growing amount of biomedical literature, methods for automatically distilling information from unstructured data, collectively known as information extraction, have become indispensable. Whilst most biomedical information extraction efforts in the last decade have focussed on the identification of gene products and interactions between them, the biomedical text mining community has recently extended their scope to capture associations between biomedical and chemical entities with the aim of supporting applications in drug discovery. This thesis is the first comprehensive study focussing on information extraction from pharmaceutical chemistry literature. In this research, we describe our work on (1) recognising names of chemical compounds and drugs, facilitated by the incorporation of domain knowledge; (2) exploring different coreference resolution paradigms in order to recognise co-referring expressions given a full-text article; and (3) defining drug-target interactions as events and distilling them from pharmaceutical chemistry literature using event extraction methods.
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Approches supervisées et faiblement supervisées pour l’extraction d’événements et le peuplement de bases de connaissances / Supervised and weakly-supervised approaches for complex-event extraction and knowledge base populationJean-Louis, Ludovic 15 December 2011 (has links)
La plus grande partie des informations disponibles librement sur le Web se présentent sous une forme textuelle, c'est-à-dire non-structurée. Dans un contexte comme celui de la veille, il est très utile de pouvoir présenter les informations présentes dans les textes sous une forme structurée en se focalisant sur celles jugées pertinentes vis-à-vis du domaine d'intérêt considéré. Néanmoins, lorsque l'on souhaite traiter ces informations de façon systématique, les méthodes manuelles ne sont pas envisageables du fait du volume important des données à considérer.L'extraction d'information s'inscrit dans la perspective de l'automatisation de ce type de tâches en identifiant dans des textes les informations concernant des faits (ou événements) afin de les stocker dans des structures de données préalablement définies. Ces structures, appelées templates (ou formulaires), agrègent les informations caractéristiques d'un événement ou d'un domaine d'intérêt représentées sous la forme d'entités nommées (nom de lieux, etc.).Dans ce contexte, le travail de thèse que nous avons mené s'attache à deux grandes problématiques : l'identification des informations liées à un événement lorsque ces informations sont dispersées à une échelle textuelle en présence de plusieurs occurrences d'événements de même type;la réduction de la dépendance vis-à-vis de corpus annotés pour la mise en œuvre d'un système d'extraction d'information.Concernant la première problématique, nous avons proposé une démarche originale reposant sur deux étapes. La première consiste en une segmentation événementielle identifiant dans un document les zones de texte faisant référence à un même type d'événements, en s'appuyant sur des informations de nature temporelle. Cette segmentation détermine ainsi les zones sur lesquelles le processus d'extraction doit se focaliser. La seconde étape sélectionne à l'intérieur des segments identifiés comme pertinents les entités associées aux événements. Elle conjugue pour ce faire une extraction de relations entre entités à un niveau local et un processus de fusion global aboutissant à un graphe d'entités. Un processus de désambiguïsation est finalement appliqué à ce graphe pour identifier l'entité occupant un rôle donné vis-à-vis d'un événement lorsque plusieurs sont possibles.La seconde problématique est abordée dans un contexte de peuplement de bases de connaissances à partir de larges ensembles de documents (plusieurs millions de documents) en considérant un grand nombre (une quarantaine) de types de relations binaires entre entités nommées. Compte tenu de l'effort représenté par l'annotation d'un corpus pour un type de relations donné et du nombre de types de relations considérés, l'objectif est ici de s'affranchir le plus possible du recours à une telle annotation tout en conservant une approche par apprentissage. Cet objectif est réalisé par le biais d'une approche dite de supervision distante prenant comme point de départ des exemples de relations issus d'une base de connaissances et opérant une annotation non supervisée de corpus en fonction de ces relations afin de constituer un ensemble de relations annotées destinées à la construction d'un modèle par apprentissage. Cette approche a été évaluée à large échelle sur les données de la campagne TAC-KBP 2010. / The major part of the information available on the web is provided in textual form, i.e. in unstructured form. In a context such as technology watch, it is useful to present the information extracted from a text in a structured form, reporting only the pieces of information that are relevant to the considered field of interest. Such processing cannot be performed manually at large scale, given the large amount of data available. The automated processing of this task falls within the Information extraction (IE) domain.The purpose of IE is to identify, within documents, pieces of information related to facts (or events) in order to store this information in predefined data structures. These structures, called templates, aggregate fact properties - often represented by named entities - concerning an event or an area of interest.In this context, the research performed in this thesis addresses two problems:identifying information related to a specific event, when the information is scattered across a text and several events of the same type are mentioned in the text;reducing the dependency to annotated corpus for the implementation of an Information Extraction system.Concerning the first problem, we propose an original approach that relies on two steps. The first step operates an event-based text segmentation, which identifies within a document the text segments on which the IE process shall focus to look for the entities associated with a given event. The second step focuses on template filling and aims at selecting, within the segments identified as relevant by the event-based segmentation, the entities that should be used as fillers, using a graph-based method. This method is based on a local extraction of relations between entities, that are merged in a relation graph. A disambiguation step is then performed on the graph to identify the best candidates to fill the information template.The second problem is treated in the context of knowledge base (KB) population, using a large collection of texts (several millions) from which the information is extracted. This extraction also concerns a large number of relation types (more than 40), which makes the manual annotation of the collection too expensive. We propose, in this context, a distant supervision approach in order to use learning techniques for this extraction, without the need of a fully annotated corpus. This distant supervision approach uses a set of relations from an existing KB to perform an unsupervised annotation of a collection, from which we learn a model for relation extraction. This approach has been evaluated at a large scale on the data from the TAC-KBP 2010 evaluation campaign.
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Neural Methods for Event Extraction / Méthodes neuronales pour l'extraction d'événementsBoroş, Emanuela 27 September 2018 (has links)
Du point de vue du traitement automatique des langues (TAL), l’extraction des événements dans les textes est la forme la plus complexe des processus d’extraction d’information, qui recouvrent de façon plus générale l’extraction des entités nommées et des relations qui les lient dans les textes. Le cas des événements est particulièrement ardu car un événement peut être assimilé à une relation n-aire ou à une configuration de relations. Alors que la recherche en extraction d’information a largement bénéficié des jeux de données étiquetés manuellement pour apprendre des modèles permettant l’analyse des textes, la disponibilité de ces ressources reste un problème important. En outre, de nombreuses approches en extraction d’information fondées sur l’apprentissage automatique reposent sur la possibilité d’extraire à partir des textes de larges en sembles de traits définis manuellement grâce à des outils de TAL élaborés. De ce fait, l’adaptation à un nouveau domaine constitue un défi supplémentaire. Cette thèse présente plusieurs stratégies pour améliorer la performance d’un système d’extraction d’événements en utilisant des approches fondées sur les réseaux de neurones et en exploitant les propriétés morphologiques, syntaxiques et sémantiques des plongements de mots. Ceux-ci ont en effet l’avantage de ne pas nécessiter une modélisation a priori des connaissances du domaine et de générer automatiquement un ensemble de traits beaucoup plus vaste pour apprendre un modèle. Nous avons proposé plus spécifiquement différents modèles d’apprentissage profond pour les deux sous-tâches liées à l’extraction d’événements : la détection d’événements et la détection d’arguments. La détection d’événements est considérée comme une sous-tâche importante de l’extraction d’événements dans la mesure où la détection d’arguments est très directement dépendante de son résultat. La détection d’événements consiste plus précisément à identifier des instances d’événements dans les textes et à les classer en types d’événements précis. En préalable à l’introduction de nos nouveaux modèles, nous commençons par présenter en détail le modèle de l’état de l’art qui en constitue la base. Des expériences approfondies sont menées sur l’utilisation de différents types de plongements de mots et sur l’influence des différents hyperparamètres du modèle en nous appuyant sur le cadre d’évaluation ACE 2005, standard d’évaluation pour cette tâche. Nous proposons ensuite deux nouveaux modèles permettant d’améliorer un système de détection d’événements. L’un permet d’augmenter le contexte pris en compte lors de la prédiction d’une instance d’événement (déclencheur d’événement) en utilisant un contexte phrastique, tandis que l’autre exploite la structure interne des mots en profitant de connaissances morphologiques en apparence moins nécessaires mais dans les faits importantes. Nous proposons enfin de reconsidérer la détection des arguments comme une extraction de relation d’ordre supérieur et nous analysons la dépendance de cette détection vis-à-vis de la détection d’événements. / With the increasing amount of data and the exploding number data sources, the extraction of information about events, whether from the perspective of acquiring knowledge or from a more directly operational perspective, becomes a more and more obvious need. This extraction nevertheless comes up against a recurring difficulty: most of the information is present in documents in a textual form, thus unstructured and difficult to be grasped by the machine. From the point of view of Natural Language Processing (NLP), the extraction of events from texts is the most complex form of Information Extraction (IE) techniques, which more generally encompasses the extraction of named entities and relationships that bind them in the texts. The event extraction task can be represented as a complex combination of relations linked to a set of empirical observations from texts. Compared to relations involving only two entities, there is, therefore, a new dimension that often requires going beyond the scope of the sentence, which constitutes an additional difficulty. In practice, an event is described by a trigger and a set of participants in that event whose values are text excerpts. While IE research has benefited significantly from manually annotated datasets to learn patterns for text analysis, the availability of these resources remains a significant problem. These datasets are often obtained through the sustained efforts of research communities, potentially complemented by crowdsourcing. In addition, many machine learning-based IE approaches rely on the ability to extract large sets of manually defined features from text using sophisticated NLP tools. As a result, adaptation to a new domain is an additional challenge. This thesis presents several strategies for improving the performance of an Event Extraction (EE) system using neural-based approaches exploiting morphological, syntactic, and semantic properties of word embeddings. These have the advantage of not requiring a priori modeling domain knowledge and automatically generate a much larger set of features to learn a model. More specifically, we proposed different deep learning models for two sub-tasks related to EE: event detection and argument detection and classification. Event Detection (ED) is considered an important subtask of event extraction since the detection of arguments is very directly dependent on its outcome. ED specifically involves identifying instances of events in texts and classifying them into specific event types. Classically, the same event may appear as different expressions and these expressions may themselves represent different events in different contexts, hence the difficulty of the task. The detection of the arguments is based on the detection of the expression considered as triggering the event and ensures the recognition of the participants of the event. Among the difficulties to take into account, it should be noted that an argument can be common to several events and that it does not necessarily identify with an easily recognizable named entity. As a preliminary to the introduction of our proposed models, we begin by presenting in detail a state-of-the-art model which constitutes the baseline. In-depth experiments are conducted on the use of different types of word embeddings and the influence of the different hyperparameters of the model using the ACE 2005 evaluation framework, a standard evaluation for this task. We then propose two new models to improve an event detection system. One allows increasing the context taken into account when predicting an event instance by using a sentential context, while the other exploits the internal structure of words by taking advantage of seemingly less obvious but essentially important morphological knowledge. We also reconsider the detection of arguments as a high-order relation extraction and we analyze the dependence of arguments on the ED task.
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Predicting Knowledge Base Revisions from Realtime Text StreamsKonovalov, Alexander 20 December 2018 (has links)
No description available.
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Tense, Aspect And Mood Based Event Extraction For Situation Analysis And Crisis ManagementHurriyetoglu, Ali 01 April 2012 (has links) (PDF)
Nowadays event extraction systems mainly deal with a relatively small amount of information about temporal and modal qualifications of situations, primarily processing assertive sentences in the past tense. However, systems with a wider coverage of tense, aspect and mood can provide better analyses and can be used in a wider range of text analysis applications. This thesis develops such a system for Turkish language. This is accomplished by extending Open Source Information Mining and Analysis (OPTIMA) research group' / s event extraction software, by implementing appropriate extensions in the semantic representation format, by adding a partial grammar which improves the TAM (Tense, Aspect and Mood) marker, adverb analysis and matching functions of ExPRESS, and by constructing an appropriate lexicon in the standard of CORLEONE. These extensions are based on the theory of anchoring relations (Temü / rcü / , 2007, 2011) which is a cross-linguistically applicable semantic framework for analyzing tense, aspect and mood related categories. The result is a system which can, in addition to extracting basic event structures, classify sentences given in news reports according to their temporal, modal and volitional/illocutionary values. Although the focus is on news reports of natural disasters, disease outbreaks and man-made disasters in Turkish language, the approach can be adapted to other languages, domains and genres. This event extraction and classification system, with further developments, can provide a basis for automated browsing systems for preventing environmental and humanitarian risk.
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Tense, Aspect And Mood Based Event Extraction For Situation Analysis And Crisis ManagementHurriyetoglu, Ali 01 April 2012 (has links) (PDF)
Nowadays event extraction systems mainly deal with a relatively small amount of
information about temporal and modal qualifications of situations, primarily
processing assertive sentences in the past tense. However, systems with a wider
coverage of tense, aspect and mood can provide better analyses and can be used in a
wider range of text analysis applications. This thesis develops such a system for
Turkish language. This is accomplished by extending Open Source Information
Mining and Analysis (OPTIMA) research group' / s event extraction software, by
implementing appropriate extensions in the semantic representation format, by
adding a partial grammar which improves the TAM (Tense, Aspect and Mood)
marker, adverb analysis and matching functions of ExPRESS, and by constructing an
appropriate lexicon in the standard of CORLEONE. These extensions are based on
iv
the theory of anchoring relations (Temü / rcü / , 2007, 2011) which is a cross-
linguistically applicable semantic framework for analyzing tense, aspect and mood
related categories. The result is a system which can, in addition to extracting basic
event structures, classify sentences given in news reports according to their temporal,
modal and volitional/illocutionary values. Although the focus is on news reports of
natural disasters, disease outbreaks and man-made disasters in Turkish language, the
approach can be adapted to other languages, domains and genres. This event
extraction and classification system, with further developments, can provide a basis
for automated browsing systems for preventing environmental and humanitarian risk.
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