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Class of 2010 Abstract / OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to demonstrate that an increase in INR is associated with a hemorrhagic event in patients taking the oral anticoagulant warfarin. METHODS: A retrospective review of data from 18 patients previously stable on warfarin therapy with an elevation in INR at the time of a hemorrhagic event. Patients were receiving warfarin treatment in the anticoagulation clinic at the Southern Arizona VA Healthcare system from April 2008 to December 2009. Primary outcome measures included a comparison of INR, warfarin dose, and hematocrit at baseline, within 7 days of the event, and during follow-­‐up. RESULTS: A significant increase in INR was observed from baseline to the event (2.5 +/-­‐ 0.36 vs 6.2 +/-­‐ 3.2; p = 0.0002) but differences in INR during all periods of follow-­‐up did not differ from baseline (p = 0.35 – 0.99). When compared with baseline, differences in warfarin dose reached statistical significance when all 12 weeks of follow-­‐up were included (34.4 +/-­‐ 13.8 mg vs 32.4+/-­‐ 15.5 mg; p = 0.01) but were not significant when only the last 8 weeks (p = 0.06) or 4 weeks (p = 0.16) were included. Hematocrit values decreased significantly following hemorrhage (39.8 +/-­‐ 3.63 vs 33.5 +/-­‐ 5.72; p = 0.0002) before trending toward baseline (39.85 +/-­‐ 3.63 vs 37.13 +/-­‐ 4.72; p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Hemorrhagic events were associated with an increased INR in previously stable warfarin patients. The mean weekly warfarin dose required to maintain a therapeutic INR returned to baseline within 8 weeks of the hemorrhagic event.

This dissertation investigates how political instability is related to the probability of civil war. According to the literature in comparative politics, regime breakdown is caused by critical events such as economic decline, defeat in interstate war, death of a leader in office, or changes is the international balance of power. Drawing on Powell (2004, 2006), I conceptualize such critical events as shifts in the domestic distribution of power that can lead to a bargaining breakdown and, in consequence, military conflict. Following a shock to government capabilities, current leaders and the opposition are bargaining for a share of authority. The government has incentives to grant concessions to other groups within the state, yet such promises are not credible given that the leadership may regain its strength. Similarly, opposition groups lack the ability to make credible commitments as they expect to be more powerful in the future. Both the government and opposition groups could benefit from striking bargains, but cannot credibly commit because of incentives to renege on agreements in the future. Unable to commit, both actors may use force to achieve their preferred outcome. The dissertation then shifts the focus to solutions to such commitment problems. I expect that (1) the institutional structure of government and opposition groups and (2) the distance between groups have important consequences on the range of feasible agreements during this bargaining process. The arguments are tested in a statistical study of all countries for the 1960-2004 time period and in a small-sample analysis of democratization processes in Algeria and Chile. Findings show that critical events increase the probability of civil war as hypothesized and empirical evidence also provides strong support for the proposed solutions to the commitment problem.

Depuis plusieurs années, un nouveau phénomène lié aux données numériques émerge : des données de plus en plus volumineuses, variées et véloces, apparaissent et sont désormais disponibles, elles sont souvent qualifiées de données complexes. Dans cette thèse, nous focalisons sur un type particulier de données complexes : les séquences complexes d’événements, en posant la question suivante : “comment prédire au plus tôt et influencer l’apparition des événements futurs dans une séquence complexe d’événements ?”. Tout d’abord, nous traitons le problème de prédiction au plus tôt des événements. Nous proposons un algorithme de fouille de règles d’épisode DEER qui a l’originalité de maîtriser l’horizon d’apparition des événements futurs à travers d’une distance imposée au sein de règles extraites. Dans un deuxième temps, nous focalisons sur la détection de l’émergence dans un flux d’événements. Nous proposons l’algorithme EER pour la détection au plus tôt de l’émergence de nouvelles règles. Pour augmenter la fiabilité de nouvelles règles lorsque leur support est très faible, EER s’appuie sur la similarité entre ces règles et les règles déjà connues. Enfin, nous étudions l’impact porté par des événements sur d’autres dans une séquence d’événements. Nous proposons l’algorithme IE qui introduit la notion des “événements influenceurs” et étudie l’influence sur le support, la confiance et la distance à travers de trois mesures d’influence proposées. Ces travaux sont évalués et validés par une étude expérimentale menée sur un corpus de données réelles issues de blogs / For several years now, a new phenomenon related to digital data is emerging : data which are increasingly voluminous, varied and rapid, appears and becomes available, they are often referred to as complex data. In this dissertation, we focus on a particular type of data : complex sequence of events, by asking the following question : “how to predict as soon as possible and to influence the appearance of future events within a complex sequence of events?”. First of all, we focus on the problem of predicting events as soon as possible in a sequence of events. We propose DEER : an algorithm for mining episode rules, which has the originality of controlling the horizon of the appearance of future events by imposing a temporal distance within the extracted rules. In a second phase, we address the problem of emergence detection in an events stream. We propose EER : an algorithm for detecting new emergent rules as soon as possible. In order to increase the reliability of new rules, EER relies on the similarity between theses rules and previously extracted rules. At last, we study the impact carried by events on other events within a sequence of events. We propose IE : an algorithm that introduces the concept of “influencer events” and studies the influence on the support, on the confidence and on the distance through three proposed measures. Our work is evaluated and validated through an experimental study carried on a real data set of blogs messages

Esta é uma dissertação de caráter teórico-empírico que apresenta como resultado uma proposta de método ou seqüência de etapas com conceitos, análises, \"ferramentas\" e atividades fundamentais para realização do planejamento estratégico de marketing nas empresas organizadoras de eventos vistas como empresas inseridas em redes de organizações que atendem a demanda do turismo de eventos. Para se chegar a proposta de método foi realizada a revisão teórica de quatro obras e seus métodos, encontradas na literatura em marketing, turismo e eventos. As etapas (com suas atividades e análises) propostas nos métodos estudados foram selecionadas, reunidas e \"enriquecidas\" com o enfoque de rede e análises adicionais. No campo empírico, antes de ser estruturada e apresentada definitivamente, a proposta de método foi apresentada a especialistas e gestores de empresas organizadoras de eventos em entrevistas, na busca de contribuições. Os conhecimentos tratados na revisão teórica em contato com a experiência prática levantada nas entrevistas permitiram estabelecer um diálogo entre a combinação das teorias que compuseram o método pré-estruturado a partir de outros métodos e a prática dos gestores e especialistas gerando como resultado um novo conhecimento para a gestão de marketing de eventos. / This is a theoretical and empirical dissertation which presents as result a proposal of method or sequence of steps with concepts, analysis, \"tools\" and fundamental activities to the strategic marketing planning process at the special events organizer companies, seen as companies inserted in networks of organizations that deal with tourism events demand. In order to reach the method\'s proposal it was made a review of four books and its methods, found in the marketing, tourism and special events literature. The steps (including its activities and analysis) proposed at the method were selected, grouped and improved with the network focus and additional analysis. At the empirical field, before have been structured and presented definitively, the method proposal was presented to specialists and managers of events organizer companies on interviews in search of contributions. The knowledge collected by the theoretical review in contact with the practical experience raised from the interviews allowed establishing a dialog between the combinations of theories that composed the prestructured method from the other methods and the practice of specialists and managers generating as result a new knowledge for the marketing management of events.

It is well known that composite materials have a poor resistance to the damage caused by the impact of foreign objects on their outer surface. There are various methods for improving the impact damage tolerance of composite materials, such as: fiber toughening, matrix toughening, interface toughening, throughthe- thickness reinforcements and selective interlayers and hybrids. Hybrid composites with improved impact resistance would be particularly useful in military and commercial civil applications. Hybridizing composites using shape memory alloys (SMAs) is one solution since SMA materials can absorb the energy of impact through superelastic deformation or recovery stress reducing the effects of the impact on the composite structure. The SMA material may be embedded in the hybrid composites (SMAHC) in many different forms and also the characteristics of the fiber reinforcements may vary, such as SMA wires in unidirectional laminates or SMA foils in unidirectional laminates only to cite two examples. Recently SMA fibers have been embedded in 2-D woven composites. As part of this PhD work, the existing theoretical models for woven composites have been extended to the case of woven SMAHC using a multiscale methodology in order to predict the mechanical properties and failure behavior of SMAHC plates. Also several parts of the model have been coded in MATLAB and validated against results extracted from the literature, showing good correlation.

In this thesis, I address ephemeras - namely temporary displays in the form of festivals and exhibitions belonging to the field of contemporary art. The most appropriate criterion with which to select and discuss the ephemera, i.e., the data in which I analyse in this thesis, is the notion of the 'event'. 'Event' is a philosophical concept, and therefore does not belong to artistic or aesthetic categories. However, two main characteristics are particularly relevant in considering it, and these are also pertinent to the field of art. Firstly, the tandem contingency and necessity. Secondly, the fact that no one can control the reach and impact of an event, which is also the case with an artwork and its interpretation. In this thesis, I am creating a confrontation between what is usually described as abstract thought (a work of philosophy for example) and the production of contemporary art, which is so often culturally and economically dependent on the art market and hegemonic power structures such as institutions, as well as the apparatus of historians and experts to evaluate and legitimise it. Furthermore, it is also necessary to state my understanding of art. This latter has strong propinquities with that defined by Kant when he coined the term 'fine art', namely a cultivated, context-aware and sensitive art, one's reflection on which provides pleasure exceeding the pure enjoyment or satisfaction produced by erudition or technical virtuosity. Secondly, the artistic manifestations that I discuss are always produced by a collective, group or organisation of which I am part. Consequently, what unfolds is an organisational discourse originating in my praxis of art. Finally, the very fact that I am a member of the group of people whose activities are discussed leads logically to autoethnography, a field of inquiry that I am also contributing to.

Live performances involve complex interactions between a large number of co-present people. Performance has been defined in terms of these performer-audience dynamics, but little is known about how they work. A series of live performance experiments investigate these dynamics, through teaching a humanoid robot some stagecraft, contrasting live and recorded performance, and spotlighting the audience. This requires the development of methods capable of capturing the fleeting responses of people within an audience and making sense of the resulting massed multi-modal data. The results show that in live events interaction matters. Extending the idea that our experience of performance is shaped by interactions with others, namely by talking with people afterwards, analogous social patterns are identified within the event. Specifically, some of the interactional dynamics well established for close, dyadic encounters extend to performers and audience members, despite the somewhat anonymised nature of massed audiences. While individual performer-audience effects were identified, the primary axis of social interaction is shown to be between audience members. This emphasises how it is being in an audience - common across diverse performance genres - that shapes the experience of live events. This work argues that the term liveness is ill-defined, but need not be. These interactional dynamics have a functional basis and depend solely on what is externally manifest. Understanding liveness in this way allows a perspicuous account - relating the perceptual environment within the event to the social contingency of experience - and can provide a systematic basis for design.

The thesis examines the migration decision-making and everyday experiences of young highly skilled professional migrants through the case study of German migration to the UK. It develops a framework combining the twin notions of transnational urbanism and translocal subjectivities, allowing a strong focus on migrants' subjective experiences, perceptions and emotionalities of mobility, while acknowledging the centrality of spaces and places for them. The geographical setting of the case study further serves to accentuate the relatively small-scale disruption occurring during the migration process, and the subjectivities connected to this. Data was collected in the UK (mainly London) during thirteen months of fieldwork, using participant observation, in-depth interviews and expert interviews. The research reveals a previously unacknowledged high ambivalence and diversity of this migrant group. Young German highly skilled migrants display various mobility and migration patterns with regard to the translocal connections they maintain, the emotional importance they attach to these connections, and their previous internal and international migration history. Three mobility types emerge from this: 'bi-local', 'multi-local' and 'settled' migrants. The close translocal connections practiced by migrants can lead to conflict, particularly for bi-local migrants, as judging of the migration project can occur by friends and families; meaning the spatial and emotional proximity between the migrants and their social network can be both positive and negative. The expectations towards the UK are also highly complex, and strongly influence micro-scale personal geographies. Lastly, the diversity of migration projects leads to widely varying attitudes towards fellow German migrants, as well as tensions and potentially conflicts within German social spaces. Overall, a strong and pervasive ambivalence about the migration experience emerges, which is experienced differently by the three migrant groups and the geographical proximity between Germany and the UK plays a large role in this. This thesis adds empirical and analytical insight to the academic debate regarding young professional migrants within the EU, and German contemporary migration in particular. Theoretically, it contributes to the discussion around lifestyle migration and middling transnationalism, and it enhances the practical use of the concept 'emotional geographies' for migration studies.

Although much has been written on the benefits of hosting 'mega events' including the Olympic Games and the Football World Cup, smaller but still significant sport events of global significance such as the Golf World Cup have received hardly any attention by researchers. This dearth in knowledge has inspired the direction of this study, that is, to explore the stakeholder perspective of the Golf World Cup which was hosted in Barbados in 2006. This event was part of a national development strategy aimed at diversifying the tourism product in the light of the increasing competitiveness of the tourism industry. Consequently the research methodology adopted for this study was eclectic in nature as it sought to obtain a holistic understanding of the issues associated with hosting mega events on a small island microstate. An approach to data collection and analysis was therefore utilised including semi-structured interviews, participant observation and the examination of documents and promotional materials in order to understand the expectations and perceptions that specific stakeholder groups (including local tourism officials, international tourists and local residents) have of the Golf World Cup. The 85 participants in this study highlighted a diversity of views. From the tourism authorities' perspective, the reasons for staging the Golf World Cup were rather cliched. These included using the Golf World Cup as a tool to promote the island as an upmarket golfing destination. The authorities also expected that the Golf World Cup would stimulate tourism demand during a traditionally slow period and provide the island with much needed publicity in overseas tourism markets. However, the fieldwork revealed that the event was unsuccessful due to the poor attendance by both international tourists and local residents. From an international perspective many participants felt that the event was poorly attended due to a lack of awareness in overseas markets and the 'lack of atmosphere' and auxiliary attractions at the golf course. From the local perspective many participants felt that the event lacked appeal and cultural relevance to the host society. Locally, a significant finding is that the event projected an image of catering to an elitist clientele. This image created the perception among local residents that the event was socially exclusive and only served to perpetuate social divisions in society rather than to ameliorate them. Furthermore, many felt that the failure of the event authorities to solicit local participation was because local residents were not part of the decision-making process. This finding further augments the argument that events cannot be successful without local support and participation. The findings in this study can make a worthwhile contribution to the marketing, management and design of future events and the direction of policy formulation for sport events on the island of Barbados. It has illuminated many issues that direct the perceptions, expectations and subsequent purchase behaviour of international tourists and local visitors regarding a mega event on the island of Barbados.