Thesis (M. Soc. Sc.)--University of Hong Kong, 1991.

Thesis (M.Soc.Sc.)--University of Hong Kong, 1991. / Also available in print.

Thesis (M.Soc.Sc.)--University of Hong Kong, 1991. / Also available in print.

Thesis (M.Soc.Sc.)--University of Hong Kong, 1992. / Also available in print.

<p>The aim of this paper is to investigate if a revaluation of the Chinese renminbi is in China’s interest and whether or not a renminbi revaluation can contribute to correct the US current account deficit. For that purpose, advantages and disadvantages of a revaluation for China are discussed. Furthermore, the fundamental causes of the US current account deficit are analysed to evaluate to what extent a renminbi revaluation can correct this imbalance. The discussion is based on previous research in this area. The main result is that a revaluation of the Chinese renminbi is primarily beneficial for China. Additionally it is found that the fundamental causes of the US current account deficit are domestic macroeconomic conditions and not China’s exchange rate policy. Nevertheless, a renminbi revaluation can help to support to correct the imbalance situation. As evidence is found that a revaluation is beneficial for China, it is further analysed how the revaluation should be practically obtained. The basic result is that the renminbi revaluation should be initiated by more exchange rate flexibility rather than by a one-step appreciation.</p>

<p>This study examines the impact of exchange rate on inflation in Nigeria economy between 1970 and 2007. We analyzed the trend of inflation and exchange rate in the last 38 years by evaluating the relationship between government expenditure, money supply, Oil revenue, exchange rate and inflation as the dependent variables. We adopted the Augmented Dickey- Fuller to carry out the unit root test and co integration with Johansen test.</p><p>Our result shows that the individual variables are integrated order one, that is a unit root exist. This means that each variable tends to follow a random walk. On the other hand, inflation rate, exchange rate, oil revenue, government spending and money supply are co integrated. This revealed a strong relationship among the variables though inflation rate and exchange rate show no long term relationship, but short term relationship seems to exist between them.</p>

Face au succès des économies d'Asie du sud-est, favorisé par une stratégie de croissance tirée par les exportations, une importante littérature s'est développée autour de la question de l'incidence des mésalignements du taux de change sur la croissance économique. Notre travail apporte un éclairage complémentaire sur ce sujet, en focalisant sur le cas particulier des économies d'Afrique Subsaharienne dont l'évolution globale de la croissance semble connaitre un regain depuis le début du 21ème siècle. Dans cette perspective, nous nous intéressons, dans un premier temps, à la question de la détermination du taux de change d'équilibre, puisque ce dernier sert de référence dans l'évaluation des mésalignements. Cette étape nous permet d'aborder la question de l'apport du régime de change dans la limitation des mésalignements. Il apparaît alors que l'apport du régime de change en termes de limitation des mésalignements est ambigu. À l'issue de cette analyse, nous envisageons, dans un second temps, l'évaluation proprement dite de l'influence des mésalignements sur la croissance de 16 pays d'Afrique Subsaharienne. Au terme de cette recherche, les résultats obtenus montrent que la surévaluation agit négativement sur la croissance économique. Pour autant, la sous-évaluation n'exerce pas d'effet favorable, quel que soit le cadre institutionnel retenu. De ce fait, il semble que la solution de sortie de l'union monétaire pour les pays de la Zone Franc ne peut pas être justifiée par l'espoir de retrouver une marge de manœuvre supplémentaire à travers la manipulation du change. / Faced with the success of Southeast Asian economies, fueled by an export-led growth strategy, an important literature developed around the question of the growth effects of exchange rate misalignments. This work provides further insights on this question, by focusing on the particular case of Sub-Saharan African countries, whose growth has picked up since the beginning of the 21st century. In this perspective, we first determine the equilibrium exchange rate as this value provides a benchmark for the computation of misalignments. This step allows us to tackle the importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting misalignments. It seems that the exchange rate regime has an ambiguous effect on limiting misalignments. Subsequent to this analysis, we assess the impact of misalignments on growth in 16 Sub-Saharan African countries. The results of this assessment are in favor of the thesis that the overvaluation acts negatively on growth. However, the under-valuation of the exchange rate does not have a positive effect, irrespective of the institutional framework considered. Therefore, it seems that countries' exit from the Franc Zone cannot be justified by the expectation that the manipulation of the exchange rate would offer countries more policy flexibility.

In the beginning this thesis deals with the theory of the exchange rate, its quotations, significance of its economic effect and ultimately the parity rate of interest, which is divided into a covered and an uncovered interest parity. It is followed by the methodology, which includes formulas and procedures used to achieve the aim. The most important part is the practical part, which deals with the general presentation of selected countries (Czech Republic, Republic of Poland, Hungary, Republic of Croatia and Romania) in terms of significant macroeconomic indicators and also shows the development of the exchange rates and interest rates in those countries. Subsequently, the thesis focuses on the verification of the uncovered interest parity by means of a graphical analysis, a regression analysis and a paired t-test. In view of results of these methods the conclusion was reached, that the theory has not been proven. The last two chapters describe the differences between the results of the selected countries and the possible reasons for the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar os fatores que influenciaram as exportações dos segmentos de soja e calçados do Brasil e Rio Grande do Sul durante o período 2000 a 2010. Em um primeiro momento, a partir de uma visão geral, são realizadas análises do comércio exterior brasileiro e do Rio Grande do Sul. Na sequência há uma explanação sobre a evolução da política cambial brasileira e sua relação com o desempenho nos setores da indústria e agricultura no Brasil. Por fim, observam-se os resultados dos segmentos selecionados no Brasil e no Rio Grande do Sul e identificam-se os fatores que influenciaram os respectivos desempenhos das exportações no período analisado. O trabalho revela que, além dos impactos ocasionados pelo câmbio e China, também estão ocorrendo movimentos de produção dos segmentos de soja e calçados do Rio Grande do Sul para outros estados, o que tem reduzido a participação gaúcha desses segmentos na pauta das exportações brasileiras. / The aim in this work is to identify the factors influencing exportations in the soybean and footwear sectors in Brazil and Rio Grande do Sul from 2000 to 2010. First, starting from an overview, analyses are made on Brazilian and Rio Grande do Sul's foreign trade. Secondly, we explain the evolution in Brazilian exchange rate policy and its relation to performance in industry and agriculture in the country. Finally, we point out the results delivered by determined sectors in Brazil and Rio Grande do Sul and identify the factors responsible for the performance in exportations in that given period. The work reveals that in addition to the impacts caused by exchange rate and China, there are also production movements to other states occurring in the soybean and footwear sectors in Rio Grande do Sul, which reduces the participation of this state in these sectors of Brazilian exportations.

Submitted by Gabriel Gebrim (gabriel.gebrim@gmail.com) on 2016-09-02T10:22:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_GabrielGebrimVFinal.pdf: 1596163 bytes, checksum: dfba3a70fed962186f2acf0e199ebf84 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Gabriel, boa tarde Para que o título esteja conforme a Ata assinada, será necessário retirar também o subtítulo (Reservas internacionais como ferramenta contra a volatilidade) Grata on 2016-09-02T15:43:57Z (GMT) / Submitted by Gabriel Gebrim (gabriel.gebrim@gmail.com) on 2016-09-02T15:55:31Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_GabrielGebrimVFinal1.pdf: 672983 bytes, checksum: 7d9582001788311836b8585e0b09429f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-09-02T18:18:30Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_GabrielGebrimVFinal1.pdf: 672983 bytes, checksum: 7d9582001788311836b8585e0b09429f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-02T18:34:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_GabrielGebrimVFinal1.pdf: 672983 bytes, checksum: 7d9582001788311836b8585e0b09429f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-12 / This paper analyzes if international reserves can reduce the effects of terms of trade shocks over the Exchange rate in Brazil. For this matter, an expansion of the model proposed by Aizeman e Riera-Critchon (2008) was developed for the Brazilian reality. The paper uses quartely data from 1972 to 2015. The results shows evidence that the active managment of international reservas can smooth the effect of terms of trade shocks over the Exchange rate and current account. / Esse trabalho tem como objetivo analisar se as reservas podem ser usadas para reduzir efeito de choques nos termos de troca sobre o câmbio no Brasil. Para isso, foram feitas expansões no modelo de análise proposto Aizeman e Riera-Critchon (2008) para a realidade brasileira. A análise feita utilizou dados brasileiros trimestrais de 1972 até 2015. Os resultados sugerem que o aumento de reservas é capaz de mitigar o efeito de choques positivos dos termos de troca no câmbio e na balança comercial.