The main purpose of the study is to investigate the exchange rate trend of China Renminbi from 1949 to nowadays, and predict the possibilities of the developed trend of China Renminbi in the future to investigate the problems of Chins Renminbi at present. It can divide China Renminbi into three periods, there are Centrally Planned Economy Period (1949~1979), Export to Accumulate Foreign Reserve (1980~1993), and Economy Adjustment Period (1994 to nowadays). The rate standard of Renminbi is usually under the China Economy policy consideration. First of all, the China Renminbi of Centrally Planned Economy Period is based on the policy consideration of the heavy industrialization, and it tends to overvalue the rate exchange to decrease the import prime cost. This condition is similar to East Europe countries before Soviet Union dismissed. Second, the Export to Accumulate Foreign Reserve tends to decrease the export cost to solicit the business. And it tents to underestimate the rate exchange similar to Taiwan of 1970s and Japan after World War II, before Plaza Accord. Moreover, the Renminbi of Economy Adjustment Period overvalued the rate exchange, but it keeps stable. The overvalued and stable standard of rate exchange strengthens the export competition of China. At the same time, it accumulate great deal of Foreign reserve which similar to the development countries of Southeast Asian to adopt Fixed Exchange Rate Regime Pegged to US Dollar. China accumulate great deal of foreign exchange because of the overvalued rate exchange, and it made the rate standard of Renminbi concerned by international. China can not self-contained after entering WTO, they have to face the opening market and the restriction of international regulations. China restricts itself by the textile industry, and they purchase foreign bond (American bond) to decrease the pressure of the appreciation of Renminbi. Even if the rate system of Renminbi has change from control the dollar to basket-pegged exchange rate regime, and it does not break away the connection between Hong Kong currencies. The Hong Kong currencies have risk of Hot Money. China still can not open their capital during the short term time to make the Renminbi floating and become convertible currency because of their economy circumstance; however, the expected long term rate of Renminbi revaluation is a necessary trend of the future.

Does the choice of exchange-rate regime effect the economic growth performance of a country? And does the significance of such a relationship vary across different levels of development? Few questions in international economics, whether it be in academic or policy circles, have inspired as much debate yielding as little consensus. Although both economic growth theory and empirical literatures suggests the existence of direct and indirect channels, through which the choice of regime may indeed impinge the growth rate, neither has managed to provide an unambiguous answer. The aim of this paper is to analyze the theoretical arguments as to the relationship between the choice of exchange-rate regime and economic growth and to empirically investigate if there is an optimal regime, in terms of growth, and if the significance of this impact differs across various levels of country development. Applying a cross-sectional regression estimation of 60 countries over the period 2000-2010, this paper finds that the choice of exchange-rate regime holds no significant explanatory power over economic growth. These findings were robust to dividing the sample based on the level of country development. Although no direct relationship was found, these findings supports the argument that the choice of regime may indeed effect growth indirectly, through its impact on other deterministic growth factors, such as trade, investment and productivity. The findings of this paper are both in accord and discord with previous results and underlines how divergent the empirical research is on this continuously debated issue.

NO ENGLISH ABSTRACT.

This paper analyzes the extent of foreign exchange rate exposure in Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore in both firm level and industry level in the period of January 1996 to January 2011 by regressing the stock return of a particular industry or firm on exchange rate changes while controlling for overall stock market movements. It is found that exchange rate movements do affect firm and industry value in a manner consistent with expectation and the extract of unexpected exchange rate changes from actual exchange rate changes have little influence on the testing results of exposure. It is also proved that exchange rate regime plays an irreplaceable role in drawing the structure of exchange rate exposure of a country.

This paper deploy the logit approach model and collect annual data from 1974 to 2004 in 22 OECD countries. It can examine that the option of exchange rate regime may cause the replacements of the governor of central banks during his tenure of office. According to prior empirical studies shows that the rightist parties favor low inflation, they may choose fixed exchange rate regime for holding monetary stability; otherwise, the leftist parties prefer low unemployment and high production, they may adopt the flexible exchange rate regime to maintain independent monetary policy and to achieve their macroeconomic objectives. Due to diverse political preferences, Does the choice of exchange rate regime disobeyed the political ideology of ruling party will cause that the central bank governors lose their job? Our results manifest that these chairmen of central banks can independently insist and defend their exchange rate regimes in OECD countries.

The type of exchange rate regime a country should adopt and ideal level of the currency have has been an ongoing debate amongst academics, politician and trade unionists. The South African economic debate is currently dominated by debates on the appropriate level of the exchange rate of the rand. With the high volatility of the rand and the rapid appreciation of the rand in 2010 there have been calls for various sectors for government to intervene and devalue the rand. The premise is that devaluation will help counter the volatility of the rand and help stimulate South Africa’s export sector thereby resulting in an improvement of the trade balance. The aim of this research was to determine if there is a relationship between South Africa’s exchange rate and the trade balance and to determine if devaluation of the rand would have a positive influence on the trade balance. Furthermore the extent to which the trade balance would follow the J-Curve effect following devaluation was investigated. Using the long term trade balance model and Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model between the analyses was done between South Africa and the BRIC countries. The conclusion reached was that a devaluation of the rand would not necessarily lead to a long term improvement of the trade balance and no evidence of the J-Curve effect was found. Copyright / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

This paper applies a cross-sectional regression analysis of 83 countries over the period 2009-11 in order to examine the role played by the exchange-rate regime in explaining how countries fared in terms of economic growth recovery following the recent financial crisis. After controlling for income categorization, regime classification, using alternative regime definitions, and accounting for various other determinants, the paper finds a significant relationship between the regime choice and the recovery performance, where those countries with more flexible arrangements fared better. These results were conditional on the regime classification scheme and the income level, implying an asymmetric effect of the regime during the recovery period between high and low income countries. The paper also finds that proxies for initial conditions as well as trade and financial channels were highly significant determinants of the growth performance during the recovery period.

Cette thèse s'inscrit dans les débats sur le rôle du régime de change et de la règle de politique monétaire. Elle développe une analyse empirique sur les 17 pays du Moyen-Orient et d'Afrique du Nord (MOAN). A contre-courant de l'idée répandue d'une supériorité des régimes extrêmes, ces pays ont souvent opté en faveur de régimes de change intermédiaires. Ceci soulève deux questions : d'une part, quels sont les facteurs qui expliquent ce choix particulier ? D'autre part, comment se situent les performances macroéconomiques qui en résultent ? Dans cette recherche, nous apportons des éléments de réponse sur ces deux interrogations. Le premier chapitre traite de la question du choix du régime de change. Les principaux facteurs que la théorie suggère pour expliquer le choix du régime sont testés empiriquement. L'analyse confirme le rôle des facteurs qui relèvent de l'hypothèse de la peur du flottement. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous évaluons l'impact de ce choix sur la performance en termes d'inflation. L'adoption d'un régime de changes fixe est souvent motivée par la recherche d'une plus grande maîtrise de l'inflation mais l'efficacité de cette stratégie n'est pas garantie. L'analyse empirique indique que la modération de l'inflation est plus liée à la stabilité de facto du taux de change qu'à l'annonce d'un régime de change fixe. L'incidence de la flexibilité du taux de change sur la croissance économique est analysée dans le troisième chapitre. La théorie conventionnelle attribue des propriétés stabilisatrices aux taux de change flexibles mais la variation du taux de change peut être une source de volatilité macroéconomique. La dollarisation des dettes publiques et privées explique la peur du flottement observée dans certains pays du MOAN et réduit la possibilité de recourir à cet instrument. Le quatrième chapitre fournit une évaluation de la politique monétaire et de taux de change dans le cas de la Syrie dans la décennie des années 2000. / This thesis lies within the debate about the role of the exchange rate regime and the monetary policy. It develops an empirical analysis in 17 countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Contrary to the widespread tenet of the superiority of corner regimes, MENA countries have often chosen intermediate regimes. This raises two questions: first what are the reasons for the choice of an intermediate regime? Second how do these countries perform in macroeconomic terms? In this research we bring about material for answering these two questions. The first chapter deals with the choice of the exchange rate regime. We test the main factors suggested by the theory. The empirical analysis confirms the role of factors that are related to the fear of floating hypothesis. In the second chapter we assess the impact on inflation of the choice of an exchange rate regime. The adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime is often motivated by the desire to keep inflation under control, although the success is not guaranteed. The empirical analysis shows that low inflation is rather associated to a de facto stable exchange rate than a formal fixed exchange rate. The third chapter analyses the effect of exchange rate flexibility on growth. The conventional theory states that flexible exchange rates have a stabilizing effect. But an excess in exchange rate volatility may undermine the real macroeconomic performance. In fact the dollarisation of public and private debts generates the fear of floating observed in MENA countries, and reduces the capacity to resort to this instrument. The fourth chapter develops an assessment of monetary and exchange rate policy in Syria in the 2000 decade.

Currency crises have become an essential part of one's economy life. The periodicity of currency crises and its implications towards the real economy is an issue which the international economics should bear in mind. The thesis which I am presenting tries to give an overview how the exchange rate regimes interact with the currency crises. Firstly, the Market Pressure Index (MPI), which is used for catching the crises, is introduced. Then after the introduction chapters I use gathered data to analyze the observed crises. The last chapter is there to give a summary about obtained knowledge. The most valuable information, regarding the currency crises, is that the stricter the monetary regime after the currency crises is the less of the output occurs. This is the main finding emerged from the pre and post analysis of monetary regimes. Another finding is that the loss of output is primarily connected with a shift from any pegged arrangement to a floating arrangement. The shifts which took place under the pegged arrangements completely do not seem to have an impact towards the real output. Finally, Real Exchange Effective Rate seems to be an element which connects all the studied crises. This opinion reflects the current research topic in international economics.

The Master's thesis analyses the macroeconomic aspects of the exchange rate policy of the administration of president Hugo Chávez Frías in Venezuela in 2003 - 2010. The author focuses first on the comparison of different exchange rate regimes and their compatibility with the commodity depended economies. A special attention is paid to the concept of Peg to Export Price regime (PEP), also called oil standard, of Jeffrey Frankel and its suitability for contemporary Venezuela. The goal of the thesis is to stress that even though the election of a correct exchange rate regime is of great importance for an exporting economy, the success can be achieved only when combining it with an appropriate monetary and fiscal policy. Without an adequate economic policy the regime alone can not provide stability and moderate high inflation.