The architecture of a system which enables the cost-effective exploration of the solar system is proposed. Such a system will make use of the benefits of the natural dynamics represented in the Circular Restricted Three-Body Problem (CRTBP). Additionally, a case study of the first missions which apply the lessons from the CRTBP is examined. The guiding principle of the proposed system is to apply lessons learned from both the Apollo project for deep space exploration and the International Space Station for long term habitation in space as well as modular space vehicle design. From this preliminary system design, a number of missions are outlined. These missions form the basis of an evolvable roadmap to fully develop the infrastructure required for long-term sustained manned exploration of the solar system. This roadmap provides a clear and concise pathway from current exploration capabilities to the current long-term goal of sustained manned exploration of Mars. The primary method employed in designing the staging orbits is the "Single Lunar Swingby", each of the component segment trajectory design processes is explored in detail. Additionally, the method of combining each of these segments together in a larger End-to-End optimizer environment within the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is introduced, called the Multiple Shooting Method. In particular, a specific Baseline Parking Orbit, or BPO, is chosen and analyzed. This BPO serves as the parking home orbit of any assets not currently in use. A BPO of amplitude (14000, 28000, 6000) kilometers. The BPO has full coverage to both the Earth and the Moon and orbit station-keeping may be conducted at a cost of less than 1 m/s over a 14 year period. This provides a cost-effective platform from which more advanced exploration activities can be based, both robotic and manned. One of the key advanced exploration activities considered is manned exploration of Mars, one of the current long-term goals of NASA. Trajectories from the BPO to Mars and back to Earth are explored and show approximately 50% decrease in required ΔV provided by the spacecraft.

The 2010 National Space Policy of the United State of America introduced by President Obama directed NASA to set far reaching exploration milestones that included a crewed mission to a Near Earth Asteroid by 2025 and a crewed mission to Martian orbit by the mid-2030s. The policy was directly influenced by the recommendations of the 2009 Review of United States Human Space Flight Plans Committee, which called for an evolutionary approach to human space exploration and emphasized the criticality of budgetary, programmatic, and program sustainability. One potential method of improving the sustainability of exploration architectures is the utilization of orbital propellant depots with commercial launch services. In any exploration architecture, upwards of seventy percent of the mass required in orbit is propellant. A propellant depot based architecture allows propellant to be delivered in small increments using existing commercial launch vehicles, but will require three to five times the number of launches as compared to the using the NASA planned 70 to 130 metric ton heavy lift launch system. Past studies have shown that the utilization of propellant depots in exploration architectures have the potential of providing the sustainability that the Review of United States Human Space Flight Plans Committee emphasized. However, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis to determine the feasibility of propellant depots within the framework of human space exploration. The objective of this research is to measure the feasibility of a propellant depot and commercial launch based exploration architecture by stochastic assessment of technical, reliability, and economic risks. A propellant depot thermal model was developed to analyze the effectiveness of various thermal management systems, determine their optimal configuration, quantify the uncertainties in the system models, and stochastically compute the performance feasibility of the propellant depot system. Probabilistic cost analysis captured the uncertainty in the development cost of propellant depots and the fluctuation of commercial launch prices, and, along with the cost of launch failures, provided a metric for determining economic feasibility. Probabilistic reliability assessments using the launch schedule, launch reliability, and architecture requirements of each phase of the mission established launch success feasibility. Finally, an integrated stochastic optimization was performed to determine the feasibility of the exploration architecture. The final product of this research is an evaluation of propellant depots and commercial launch services as a practical method to achieving economic sustainability for human space exploration. A method for architecture feasibility assessment is demonstrated using stochastic system metrics and applied in the evaluation of technical, economic, and reliability feasibility of orbital propellant depots and commercial launch based exploration architectures. The results of the analysis showed the propellant depots based architectures to be technically feasible using current commercial launch vehicles, economically feasible for having a program budget less than $4 billion per year, and have launch reliability approaching the best single launch vehicle, Delta IV, with the use of redundant vehicles. These results serve to provide recommendations on the use of propellant depots in exploration architectures to the Moon, Near Earth Objects, Mars, and beyond.The 2010 National Space Policy of the United State of America introduced by President Obama directed NASA to set far reaching exploration milestones that included a crewed mission to a Near Earth Asteroid by 2025 and a crewed mission to Martian orbit by the mid-2030s. The policy was directly influenced by the recommendations of the 2009 Review of United States Human Space Flight Plans Committee, which called for an evolutionary approach to human space exploration and emphasized the criticality of budgetary, programmatic, and program sustainability. One potential method of improving the sustainability of exploration architectures is the utilization of orbital propellant depots with commercial launch services. In any exploration architecture, upwards of seventy percent of the mass required in orbit is propellant. A propellant depot based architecture allows propellant to be delivered in small increments using existing commercial launch vehicles, but will require three to five times the number of launches as compared to the using the NASA planned 70 to 130 metric ton heavy lift launch system. Past studies have shown that the utilization of propellant depots in exploration architectures have the potential of providing the sustainability that the Review of United States Human Space Flight Plans Committee emphasized. However, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis to determine the feasibility of propellant depots within the framework of human space exploration. The objective of this research is to measure the feasibility of a propellant depot and commercial launch based exploration architecture by stochastic assessment of technical, reliability, and economic risks. A propellant depot thermal model was developed to analyze the effectiveness of various thermal management systems, determine their optimal configuration, quantify the uncertainties in the system models, and stochastically compute the performance feasibility of the propellant depot system. Probabilistic cost analysis captured the uncertainty in the development cost of propellant depots and the fluctuation of commercial launch prices, and, along with the cost of launch failures, provided a metric for determining economic feasibility. Probabilistic reliability assessments using the launch schedule, launch reliability, and architecture requirements of each phase of the mission established launch success feasibility. Finally, an integrated stochastic optimization was performed to determine the feasibility of the exploration architecture. The final product of this research is an evaluation of propellant depots and commercial launch services as a practical method to achieving economic sustainability for human space exploration. A method for architecture feasibility assessment is demonstrated using stochastic system metrics and applied in the evaluation of technical, economic, and reliability feasibility of orbital propellant depots and commercial launch based exploration architectures. The results of the analysis showed the propellant depots based architectures to be technically feasible using current commercial launch vehicles, economically feasible for having a program budget less than $4 billion per year, and have launch reliability approaching the best single launch vehicle, Delta IV, with the use of redundant vehicles. These results serve to provide recommendations on the use of propellant depots in exploration architectures to the Moon, Near Earth Objects, Mars, and beyond.