Thesis (Ph. D.)--Johns Hopkins University, 1992. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 145-154).

The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the ERM II mechanism and to explain it's positives and negatives for the internal and external economic balance. In the first part of this thesis the author engages in the ERM II system and other applied exchange mechanisms. Further he focuses in detail on the theory of internal and external economic balance. In the analytic part of the work the author uses chosen indicators to monitor the influence of ERM II mechanism on the internal and external balance of three selected countries - Malta, Cyprus and Latvia. In the closing part the author summarizes the outcome of the analysis.

<p>In this thesis we analyze the macroeconomic impact of the tsunami in 2004 on the Sri Lankan economy. The theoretical framework we use, the Australian model of a developing economy, gives direct or indirect predictions for the development of a number of variables after a natural disaster. In our case, we believe that the main reason for developments of the output variables and the exchange rate is the extraordinary large and rapid inflow of foreign aid money. In summary, we find the overall impact of the tsunami on the Sri Lankan economy to be minor.</p>

In this thesis we analyze the macroeconomic impact of the tsunami in 2004 on the Sri Lankan economy. The theoretical framework we use, the Australian model of a developing economy, gives direct or indirect predictions for the development of a number of variables after a natural disaster. In our case, we believe that the main reason for developments of the output variables and the exchange rate is the extraordinary large and rapid inflow of foreign aid money. In summary, we find the overall impact of the tsunami on the Sri Lankan economy to be minor.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Brown University, 1994. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 147-152).

The European Central Bank implements its monetary policy within the Euro Area -- the biggest project of monetary union in the history. This fact itself draws our attention and gives rise to the questions about the efficiency of the adopted steps in the scope of fulfilling the main objective -- price stability. However when evaluating the overall economic balance we are not only interested in price stability. This paper is focused on ECB monetary policy from a theoretical point of view as well as through comprehensive analysis of its practical effects on economic performance. External and internal balance indicators help us to evaluate the ECB's achievement from 1999 till now. Therefore we can see the origins of the current miserable state of the common currency not in the bad decisions undertaken by the ECB, but in the general conditions, which enabled the formation of the EMU on a very unstable foundation.

The thesis analyses the trend in external economic balance of the Czech Republic since 2000. The main instruments for the analysis were found in level of balance of payments and external debt statistics. The emphasis is also placed on exchange rate of Czech currency which is considered to be one of the leading determinants of external economic relations. The main goal of this paper lies in examination of past, present and also expected future trend in external balance with respect to various indicators and to comparison with other EU members, especially with Central Europe region (Poland, Slovakia and Hungary). The thesis should provide general overview of external economic relations of the Czech Republic in situation when some European countries are being threatened by deep debt crisis and in some cases the life-line from European union or International Monetary Fund must come.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-03-29T15:32:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 luizantoniodelimajunior.pdf: 940500 bytes, checksum: 086d20dfec87df8b8162f3516f1efb0e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-04-24T02:49:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 luizantoniodelimajunior.pdf: 940500 bytes, checksum: 086d20dfec87df8b8162f3516f1efb0e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-24T02:49:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 luizantoniodelimajunior.pdf: 940500 bytes, checksum: 086d20dfec87df8b8162f3516f1efb0e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-12-17 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Este trabalho estudou a dinâmica da relação entre o saldo externo chinês e o saldo externo norte-americano nos primeiro anos do século XXI. O estudo desta dinâmica se justifica uma vez que a mesma é apontada por muitos autores como uma das causas da crise subprime, ocorrida em 2008. Enquanto a China exerceu uma política externa agressiva, por meio de várias práticas como câmbio muito desvalorizado, tendo crescentes superávits em suas contas externas, os EUA tiveram crescentes déficits em suas contas externas, apoiados em déficits públicos e pela política monetária frouxa praticada pelo FED que provocou o forte aumento no consumo norte-americano. Com a finalidade de estudar esta dinâmica foram usados os testes de exogeneidade fraca, exogeneidade forte e superexogeneidade para mostrar a existência da relação entre o saldo externo destes dois países. Além disto, foram executados testes de causalidade no sentido de Granger na abordagem de Toda-Yamamoto (1995). A periodicidade dos dados usados engloba o primeiro trimestre de 1999 até o último trimestre de 2011, abarcando acontecimentos do pré-crise e do pós-crise. A conclusão que este trabalho chegou foi que realmente o desequilíbrio macroeconômico entre China e EUA tem uma relação causal, uma vez que, o teste de causalidade no sentido de Granger mostrou existir bicausalidade. Além disso, estes desequilíbrios estão relacionados com a crise de 2008, uma vez que foram detectadas quebras estruturais para o saldo externo dos dois países no ano de 2008 e a dinâmica do saldo em transações correntes do saldo externo chinês se modificou após a crise sbuprime. / This dissertation was a study of the global imbalances that occurred in the first years of twenty-first century. The analysis encompasses the two biggest countries in the world: USA and China. Many authors are defending that the relationship between the current account of these two countries was one important cause of the subprime crisis. While USA has increased its deficit in the last decade, China has improved its surplus. To investigate this relationship, this study used exogeneity tests. Moreover this dissertation used causality Granger tests in approach of Toda-Yamamoto. The results showed that there is a real causal relationship between USA and China external balance. Furthermore the global imbalances between these two countries contributed to the subprime crisis, because in the tests were detected structural breaks for the external balance of American and Chinese in 2008. The dynamics of the Chinese external balances changed after the subprime crisis.

This diploma thesis focuses on changes in the external balance of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain in the period of financial and economic crisis after 2008. The theoretical framework is based on an exact definition of external balance, ultimately as neither surplus nor deficit of a relevant balance in terms of balance of payments. Potential impacts of monetary and fiscal policies on the external balance are described there as well, using the IS-LM-BP model. The second part of the thesis, which employs this theory, is mainly based on an analysis of relevant balances of payments of the aforementioned countries, focusing on their external balance in the period before as well as during the economic crisis. The aim of the analysis is to identify the main causes of external imbalance in the Southern European countries and to find out whether these played a key role as a trigger and accelerator in their recession after 2008. Specific changes during the crisis identified in balances of payments will also be depicted in the IS-LM-BP model. Leading to the conclusion, the outcomes of a correlation analysis are used as well, looking into causal relationships between specific balance of payments variables on the one hand, and macroeconomic variables on the other. A minor part also deals with the role played in this context by the TARGET2 payment system and answers the question to which extent this system took part in the elimination of the external imbalance of the Southern European countries during the crisis.

This diploma thesis focuses on indicators of currency and banking crises and examines their reliability. The analysis is performed on real economic events - the monetary crisis analysiswill be related to the crisis in Russia in 1998 and in the banking crisis we will examine events in Ireland in 2008-2010. In case of both crises we will try to make a strict definition because the economic literature nor any law regulation do not offer any, whereas for time series analysis is the determination of the outbreak and the end of the crisis crucial. We also look at the change in the understanding of the financial crisis, from the concept of monetary, banking and debt crises typical for the end of the last century and gradually transitioning to a comprehensive approach to the financial crisis as a systemic crisis that represents the current direction of economic thought. The main objective is to analyze the reliability of currency crisis and banking crises indicators on the example of selected economic events. We will try to follow the development of indicators within a few years and look for the development trend, predicting the impending problems. There are also described some methodological problems concerning the research of indicators of financial crises. In the end we will have a comparison of both countries and emphasize what they have in common and what is different.