In this essay i argue that there are three different variables that may be able to control the outcome of certain foreign policy choices. These three variables are External Threats, government division and public opinion. The Essay also tries to identify former president Bush motives behind the 2003 Iraqi War. It is partly argued that the three variables had a certain amount of influence on Bush decision making process. But the main focus lies on the motives behind the attack. There are several official motives identifies through different types of statements from different members of the elite group, the main motives being the threat that the Bush administration felt the former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein was responsible for and of course weapons of mass destruction, as you will notice while you read this essay there are more but in some way smaller motives that doesn't take as much place as the threat and WMD aspects.