We use a three-country, 14-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the effect of immigration on the labor market, production sectors and the macroeconomy of Austria and Hungary. We analyze the phenomenon of immigration in an empirical model in order to get an idea of the quantitative dimension of the economic problems involved, rather than introduce new integration theory. Our study aims more at the impact of migration than at forecasting future migration flows. (excerpt) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006-2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011-2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010-2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Export, migration and costs of trade: evidence from Central European firms, Regional Studies. This article analyses the link between immigration and trade at the firm level, utilizing information on the export activities of 8300 firms located in different Central European countries (Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) for various export markets as well as regional data on immigration. The empirical analysis suggests a strong, economically meaningful and statistically significant impact of immigration on the export propensity (extensive margin), whereas the influence on firms' export volumes (intensive margin) is much smaller. This leads to the conclusion that immigrants promote export activities to their home countries mainly by reducing fixed costs of trade.

The eastward enlargement of the European Union will be the fifth enlargement since establishing the European Community in 1957. This paper gives an overview of the most recent undertakings to estimate the costs and benefits of EU enlargement in the framework of model analysis. This field of research is relatively young. Therefore only a few model simulations have been made so far. They can be classified into world models covering several world regions, and in single country models. In both cases, one finds computable general equilibrium - CGE - models as well as macro models. The major findings of world models are that the CE-ECs will be the winners whereas the EU incumbents can expect only small gains from enlargement. Taking into account the costs of enlargement the big question, is how the int e-gration gains are distributed among EU incumbents. As a rule, those countries will benefit the most which have already strong trade relations with the CEECs. In the case of the single country models, Austria is one of those countries with the longest tradition in making model simulations in the case of enlargement. A comparison of CGE model approaches with macro model simulations for Austria shows that the benefits of EU enlargement may be lower than those of the opening-up of Eastern Europe since 1989. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

This paper analyses the role of the spatial structure of migrant networks in the location decision of migrants to the European Union at the regional level. Using a random parameters logit specification, a significant positive effect of migrant networks in neighbouring regions on migrants' location decisions is found. Although this spatial spillover effect is smaller than the effect of networks in the host regions, omitting to control for this spatial dependence results in a 40% overestimation of the effect of regional migrant networks on the location decision of newly arriving migrants.

We present a method aimed at estimating global bilateral migration flows and assessing their determinants. We employ that fact that available net migration figures for a country are (nonlinear) aggregates of migration flows from and to all other countries of the world in order to construct a statistical model that links the determinants of (unobserved) migration ows to total net migration. Using simple specifications based on the gravity model for international migration, we find that migration flows can be explained by standard gravity model variables such as GDP differences, distance or bilateral population. The usefulness of such models is exemplified by combining estimated specifications with population and GDP projections in order to assess quantitatively the expected changes in migration flows to Europe in the coming decades. / Series: WWWforEurope

The paper investigates the determinants of internal migration within late imperial Austria. In contrast to the modernization paradigm which studies onedirectional migration flows from rural to urban areas, our approach highlights that spatial mobility consisted of movements in both directions. Using data on all districts of the Austrian part of the Hapsburg Monarchy, we find that in- and outmigration rates are positively correlated, and that the modernization paradigm in migration research is consistent with our results for net-migration rates, but inconsistent with those for out-migration. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

The persistence of socioeconomic outcomes across generations acts as a barrier to a society's ability to exploit its resources efficiently. In order to derive policy measures which aim at accelerating intergenerational mobility, we review the existent body of research on the causes, effects and the measurement of intergenerational mobility. We also present recent empirical works which study intergenerational mobility in Europe, around the Globe, and its relevance for economic growth. We recommend four policy measures to reduce the negative impacts of intergenerational persistence in economic outcomes: universal and high-quality child care and pre-school programs; later school tracking and increased access to vocational training to reduce skill mismatch and facilitate technological development; integration programs for migrants; and simultaneous investment in schooling and later social security programs. / Series: WWWforEurope

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