Thesis (M.S.)--University of Michigan, 1958.

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Michigan, 1964.

Thesis PlanB (M.S.)--University of Wisconsin--Stout, 2006. / Includes bibliographical references.

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The objectives of this thesis are to develop an analytical method for economic risk quantification during feasibility analysis for large engineering projects and to computerize the method to explore its behavior, to validate it and to test its practicality for the measurement of uncertainty of decision variables such as project duration, cost, revenue, net present value and internal rate of return. Based on the probability of project success the method can be utilized to assist on strategic feasibility analysis issues such as contingency provision, "go-no go" decisions and adopting phased or fast track construction. The method is developed by applying a risk measurement framework to the project economic structure. The risk measurement framework is developed for any function Y = g(X), between a derived variable and its correlated primary variables. Using a variable transformation, it transforms the correlated primary variables and the function to the uncorrelated space. Then utilizing the truncated Taylor series expansion of the transformed function and the first four moments of the transformed uncorrelated variables it approximates the first four moments of the derived variable. Using these first four moments and the Pearson family of distributions the uncertainty of the derived variable is quantified as a cumulative distribution function. The first four moments for the primary variables are evaluated from the Pearson family of distributions using accurate, calibrated and coherent subjective percentile estimates elicited from experts. The correlations between the primary variables are elicited as positive definite correlation matrices. The project economic structure describes an engineering project in three hierarchical levels, namely, work package/revenue stream, project performance and project decision. Each of these levels can be described by Y = g(X), with the derived variables of the lower levels as the primary variables for the upper level. Therefore, the input as expert judgements is only at the work package/revenue stream level. Project duration is estimated by combining the generalized PNET algorithm to the project economic structure. This permits the evaluation of the multiple paths in the project network. Also, the limiting values of the PNET transitional correlation (0,1) permits the estimation of bounds on all of the derived variables. Project cost and revenue are evaluated in terms of current, total and discounted dollars, thereby emphasizing the economic effects of time, inflation and interest on net present value and internal rate of return. The internal rate of return is evaluated from a variation of Hillier's method. The analytical method is validated using Monte Carlo simulation. The validations show that the analytical method is a comprehensive and extremely economical alternative to Monte Carlo simulation for economic risk quantification of large engineering projects. In addition, they highlight the ability of the analytical method to go beyond the capabilities of simulation in the treatment of correlation, which are seen to be significant in the application problems. From these applications a technique to provide contingencies based on the probability of project success and to distribute the contingency to individual work packages is developed. / Applied Science, Faculty of / Civil Engineering, Department of / Graduate

The introduction of a new checkout language at Kennedy Space Center has required more effort to create test and operations software than anticipated. The new language is called GOAL, for Ground Operations Aerospace Language. The feasibility of a computer aided GOAL coding system that would reduce the effort required to create GOAL programs is investigated in this report. A background of GOAL, its coding requirements, and the facilities used at present for GOAL coding is presented first. Next, the computer aided GOAL coding concept is presented, and requirements for such a system are developed. After the requirements are presented, a system which has been used to develop some concepts and check their feasibility is described. Finally, some conclusions are drawn on the feasibility of the computer aided GOAL coding concept, and hardware required to implement an operational system are presented.

No abstract available. / Thesis (MBA)-University of Natal, 2003.

Procurement is the acquisition of goods or services at the best possible total cost of ownership, in the correct quantity, at the correct time, in the correct place for the direct benefit or use of corporations, governments or individuals (Procurement 2005). Electronic procurement is the fulfillment of the procurement function by use of the Internet and new technologies to facilitate a seamless, end-to-end stream of strategic procurement activities enabling improved responsiveness and analysis within the procurement organisation (Wheatley 2003). The aim of the study was to identify the effectiveness and efficiency of the current procurement processes in place at UTi Domestic and to investigate the feasibility of using Electronic Procurement as a possible mechanism for Business Process Re-Engineering within UTi Domestic, to streamline and add value to the overall procurement function. This study was undertaken at UTi domestic in Johannesburg. Questionnaires were used to collect data. In total, twenty-eight procurement staff members and six management members completed separate questionnaires. One hundred percent response rate was achieved for both groups. The procurement staff completed a structured questionnaire while management were asked unstructured questions. Data obtained from the questionnaires were analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). The findings of the study indicated that the procurement process at UTi Domestic was inefficient and ineffective. The procurement process was in need of redesign. Controversy existed between management and procurement staff over whether e-procurement would be the solution to the procurement problem. The researcher recommended the implementation of an e-procurement solution as a resolution to the procurement problem, based on the value potential of the solution and the ability of the solution to positively satisfy all of the aims of the study. As supported by the literature, e-procurement can make a significant difference to UTi Domestic. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville, 2006.

The purpose of this research was to investigate the feasibility of installing gasification based combined heat and power plants in the New Zealand wood processing industry. This is in accordance with Objective Four of the BIGAS Consortium. This thesis builds on previous work on Objective Four (Rutherford, 2006) where integration into MDF (Medium Density Fibreboard) was investigated. The previous research identified the most suitable form of combined heat and power was a BIG-GE (Biomass Integrated Gasification Gas Engine) process, due to both lower capital investment and overall breakeven electricity production cost. This technology has therefore been adopted, and the investigation has been carried further in this research to incorporate integration into sawmills and LVL (Laminated Veneer Lumber) plants. It is recognised, however, especially when reviewing overseas successes and failures, that the base economics are only one factor in the feasibility of a plant. The research, therefore, has moved further to investigate New Zealand policy, the power market, lower capital alternatives and novel methods of integration. The conclusion of the study is gasification based combined heat and power plants in the New Zealand wood processing industry can be equal or better in economic terms than other forms of renewable generation, however, the application is very niche. Lower capital cost alternatives, stable and low priced biomass feed and a favourable power market in regards to distributed generation is key to the viability of such a plant. Government policy is favourable towards biomass gasification due to the target of 90% electrical generation by renewable resources by 2025. Distributed generation is also encouraged in the Government’s forward strategy. However, the technology has advanced further overseas due to capital grants and a premium paid for ‘green’ electricity. While the technology may be economic in its own right, active government support would lower the perceived risk increasing the likelihood of an investor taking interest in an initial project.