Includes bibliographical references (leaves 90-92). / Almost all models of market behaviour in some way or another, suppose some causality between news or information, and market prices. This study seeks to explore the relationship between information and the behaviour of investors. Specifically, it will examine the impact of Stock Exchange News Service Announcements (SENS Announcements) on trading volumes.

The focus of this dissertation is to quantify the probability of firm default focusing on the top 42 non-financial firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. This paper follows the same methodology as outlined in the Moody's KMV white papers in implementing the Merton (1974) model. The model of default prediction builds upon option theory as pioneered by Black and Scholes and derives the probability of default predominately from the price and volatility of equity. In addition, BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) transactions currently being experienced within the South African corporate sector are further incorporated into the model. The results of this dissertation show that the Merton (1974) model may be used as a source of information of the underlying credit risk of publicly traded firms in South Africa.

This paper examines the value effect corporate diversification on firms listed on the JSE Exchange. The value gain or loss for the diversified firms is measured using Berger and Ofek's (1995) model that estimates the value of diversified companies' segments as though they were independent companies. The result indicates corporate diversification in South Africa is value enhancing. Evidence shows that sample of diversified companies are traded, on average, 39-57 (Excess Value 0.33 to 0.45) percent above the industry averages. The value gain is higher in related-diversification than unrelated ones. A similar assessment of a sample of 57 focused companies showed a much lower Excess Value (EV). The EV for diversified companies (0.33 - 0.45) is higher than the EV for focused companies (0.00 - 0.19) suggesting that diversified companies are traded at premium as compared to focused companies. Further analysis of the result shows that the value gain is higher in the medium sized sample companies as compared to the bigger companies. Regression of the EV in relation to firms' characteristics (number of segments per company, capital expenditure, and profitability) showed no significant relationship. To explain the possible sources for higher premium shown in diversified companies, analysis of the companies leverage and tax rate shows that diversified companies have, on average 13% lower debt-to-assets ratio and pay 4.13% lower tax rate than focused companies. It suggests that higher leverage, which gives companies greater tax shield, is not one the sources for the observed higher premium. It, however, indicates that a lower tax derived by combining businesses with imperfectly correlated cash flows can be one of the contributing factors for the value gain. A comparison of Price-to-Earning and Price-to-Book value ratios for the sample diversified and focused companies suggests, in contradiction with the above results, that focused companies perform better than diversified companies.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether South African acquisitions result in success, with success measured as post-acquisition improvements in cash flow returns. The reason for this approach is the view that a firm's intrinsic value is coupled to its long-term cash-generating ability. Post-acquisition change in cash flow returns for large acquisitions made by JSE-listed firms over the period 1995 - 2009 were analysed. Cash flow returns were measured as free cash flow to the firm over capital employed. This measurement of cash flow return is neutral to the firm's financing decision and capital structure, thus facilitating a comparison between different firms. Changes in annual cash flow returns were measured over the period covering five years preceding and five years following completion of acquisitions. The cash flow returns of the acquiring firms were compared to benchmark returns of firms in the same sector which did not undertake major acquisitions. The study found in 22 of 24 tests that the benchmarked post-acquisition cash flow returns and EBITDA returns were not significantly different in relation to the benchmarked pre-acquisition returns. However, in two tests which adjusted for operating leases and used total returns over the pre-acquisition and post-acquisition periods, it was found that the difference in returns were significant. The sample of eleven firms is relatively small and any inferences about South African acquisitions in general should therefore be approached with care. The divergence in results between the individual firms within the sample, as well as the outlined sensitivities of observed results lend further support for this cautionary approach. Despite the limited number of acquisitions that occurred over the period, this study should contribute towards a better understanding of the overall value proposition of large South African acquisitions, as well as provide impetus for related future research.

In this paper the literature is reviewed to determine what exactly SRI is, and whether there has been evidence of the financial benefits of SRI compared to conventional portfolios internationally. It has been found that among the different opinions of SRI, four goals of SRI are central to understanding the concept. These goals are essentially to democratize the economy (by encouraging the employment and empowerment of the previously disadvantaged), to humanize the work environment (ensuring the safety and training of staff), rethinking profit distribution (dividends versus charitable giving and environmental campaigns) and convincing the business world that a corporate conscience can pay. With regards to gaining evidence of the financial benefits of SRI compared to conventional portfolios, no greater clarity was obtained, since there was diverging results of the studies undertaken. These results ranged from views that there is no trade-off between the two different stock performances, while others show that SRI stocks outperform non-SRI stocks and also that 'sin' stocks outperform SRI stocks.

Includes abstract. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 45-46). / Auditors are responsible for assessing management’s use of the going concern assumption in the financial statements. According to research done in other countries, the Z-Score is a statistical tool that has been proven to aid auditors' going concern decisions. The objective of this paper is to ascertain whether Altman’s Z-Score can aid South African auditors to more accurately assess the appropriateness of management’s use of the going concern assumption in the preparation of financial statements, by applying two corporate failure prediction models developed by Altman to South Africa listed companies. The study compares the predictive accuracy of the two models against each other and against auditors’ actual going concern decisions. The results indicate that the Z-Score is quite accurate in predicting failure for companies that eventually fail.

The shift from defined benefit to defined contribution plans has exposed pensioners to a number of new risks which the South African government has been encouraged to mitigate through the aggressive implementation of retirement fund regulations. This study specifically focuses on the effect of asset allocation restrictions. The effect of these regulations is critically evaluated by comparing the long-term effects of both excess returns and risk-weighted returns of Regulation 28 compliant funds, to fully discretional non-compliant portfolios. With a population of 27 compliant funds and 21 non-compliant funds, it was found that while mean excess long-term return of non-compliant funds consistently outperforms compliant funds, there is no significant statistical difference between the two data sets. Additionally, while regulations successfully reduce the variation of excess returns of the compliant funds relative to the noncompliant funds, and the mean risk-weighted performance of compliant funds consistently outperformed non-compliant funds during the latter parts of the scoped period, no significant statistical difference was identified between compliant and non-compliant investment funds.

This paper investigates how corporate investment is influenced by the non-fundamental component of stock prices. Previous research conducted has found that investment is sensitive to equity mispricing where both the stock is undervalued and the firm is dependent on equity. Under these conditions the firm would need to issue undervalued equity to fund new investment. The suggestion is that the investment behaviours of equity dependent firms display a stronger correlation to stock prices than firms that are not dependent on equity. It is of particular interest to investigate the effect of equity-dependence on corporate investment in South Africa as developing economies often do not have access to debt due to under-developed credit markets.

Operational risk has attracted a sizeable amount of attention in recent years as a result of massive operational losses that headlined financial markets across the world. The operational risk losses have been on the back of litigation cases and regulatory fines, some of which originated from the 2008 global financial crisis. As a result it is compulsory for financial institutions to reserve capital for the operational risk exposures inherent in their business activities. Local financial institutions are free to use any of the following operational risk capital estimation methods: Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA), the Standardized (TSA) and/ the Basic Indicator Approach (BIA). The BIA and TSA are predetermined by the Reserve Bank, whilst AMA relies on internally generated methodologies. Estimation approaches employed in this study were initially introduced by the BCBS, largely premised on an increasingly sophisticated technique to incentivise banks to continually advance their management and measurement methods while benefiting from a lower capital charge through gradating from the least to the most sophisticated measurement tool. However, in contrast to BCBS's premise, Sundmacher (2007), whilst using a hypothetical example, finds that depending on a financial institution's distribution of its Gross Income, the incentive to move from BIA to TSA is nonexistent or marginal at best. In this thesis I extend Sundmacher (2007)'s work, and I test one instance of AMA regulatory capital (RegCap) against that of TSA in a bid to crystalise the rand benefit that financial institutions stand to attain (if at all) should they move from TSA to AMA. A Loss Distribution Approach (LDA), coupled with a Monte Carlo simulation, were used in modelling AMA. In modelling the loss severities, the Lognormal, Weibull, Burr, Generalized Pareto, Pareto and Gamma distributions were considered, whilst the Poisson distribution was used for modelling operational loss frequency. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Akaike information criterion tests were respectively used for assessing the level of distribution fit and for model selection. The robustness and stability of the model were gauged using stress testing and bootstrap. The TSA modelling design involved using predetermined beta values for different business lines specified by the BCBS. The findings show that the Lognormal and Burr distributions best describes the empirical data. Additionally, there is a substantial incentive in terms of the rand benefit of migrating from TSA to AMA in estimating operational risk capital. The initial benefit could be directed towards changes in information technology systems in order to effect the change from TSA to AMA. Notwithstanding that the data set used in this thesis is restricted to just one of the "big four banks" (owing to proprietary restrictions), the methodology is representable (or generalisable) to the other big banks within South Africa. The scope of this study can further be extended to cover Extreme Value Theory, Non-Parametric Empirical Sampling, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and Bayesian Approaches in estimating operational risk capital.

Includes bibliographical references. / This paper examines the characteristics of earnings quality, reviews the literature that assesses whether earnings quality does in fact affect market valuations and evaluates whether trading strategies based on this knowledge yield abnormal positive returns. This paper looks at why earnings quality should be an important consideration in evaluation [of] a firm, then investigates research on the accounting effect on valuations, covering the accrual effect, the general growth effect and the value-glamour effect. Thereafter, other factors that can influence earnings quality are documented, from earnings manipulation to the effects of external factors on quality of earnings. The concept and measurement of economic profits are also examined. Lastly, trading strategies based on earnings quality are investigated to see if abnormal profits can be earned from such strategies.