Wildland fires are a type of vegetation fire that burn in a rural or wild landscape and affect many countries worldwide. They are an important mechanism in ecosystem maintenance, although in certain cases wildland fires can adversely affect both people and the environment. A wildland fire can interact with the surrounding topography, vegetation and weather in a complex manner, which makes microscale prediction of wildland fire behaviour difficult in many situations. This thesis focused on the application of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) and WRF-Fire coupled atmosphere-fire models to investigating aspects of atmospheric interactions with wildland fire. The research covered a wide range of atmospheric scales, from a seasonal mesoscale analysis of fire weather conditions across New Zealand to a microscale analysis of complex atmosphere-fire interactions over idealised terrain. The first study investigated the suitability of WRF modelling of fire weather conditions for the 2009/10 wildland fire season in New Zealand. The WRF model horizontal grid spacing was 8 km and the model output was directly compared with near-surface fire weather conditions meaured and derived at 23 weather stations located throughout New Zealand. The analysis considered the air temperature, relative humidity, wind conditions, rainfall and the New Zealand Fire Weather Index (FWI) and Continuous Haines Index (CHI) on observed high-end fire weather days. WRF typically underpredicted the air temperatures and relative humidities, whereas it typically overpredicted the wind speeds, CHI and the number of high-end fire weather days. WRF was assessed to be unsuitable for accurately modelling particular aspects of fire weather, such as the wind speed and direction, in mountainous terrain and near complex coastlines. Further research is needed to investigate how varying the horizontal resolution in WRF affects the assessed accuracy of modelled fire weather conditions. The second study investigated the behaviour of the Haines Index (HI), CHI and FWI, and their associated atmospheric properties for the 2009/10 wildland fire season in New Zealand. The analysis demonstrated that there was a large degree of spatial variability in fire weather conditions throughout New Zealand, particularly in or near mountainous terrain. The fire weather severity was highest in the eastern South Island and appeared to be closely associated with mesoscale atmospheric processes over mountainous terrain, although the relationship between these atmospheric processes and fire weather condi- tions requires further investigation. The HI and CHI were both limited in their utility at measuring aloft fire weather conditions in high altitude regions. Finally, the fire weather conditions associated with the 36 largest wildland fires of the fire season were evaluated, although no statistical relationships were found between the wildland fire size and either the CHI or FWI. The third study investigated the fire weather conditions across the South Island associated with an extreme foehn event on 6 February 2011. Mountain waves developed in the northwesterly synoptic flow over the Southern Alps and were found to directly influence the fire weather conditions near the surface and aloft in the lee of the mountains. A hydraulic jump along the foothills of the Canterbury Plains resulted in a downslope windstorm with wind speeds exceeding 80 km/h. Further south, large amplitude mountain lee waves directly influenced the near-surface wind speeds and atmospheric stability aloft. The foehn winds were associated with peak air temperatures over 35˚C in the eastern South Island, which are significantly higher than the climatological average. The FWI indicated widespread extreme near-surface fire weather conditions in the lee of the mountains. The subsequent passge of a cold front on 7 February brought a marked reduction in fire weather severity across the South Island. The fourth study investigated atypical wildland fire behaviour on steep leeward slopes through a series of idealised WRF-Fire simulations. The analysis considered both the leeward flow characteristics over a triangular ridge line and the fire spread from an ignition point at the base of the leeward slope. The fire spread was modelled for two different fuel types and with two-way atmosphere-fire coupling both enabled and disabled. The modelled fire spread in the heavy fuel type with coupling enabled closely resembled the fire channelling wildland fire behaviour phenomenon. The initial fire spread was initially dominated by upslope fire spread to the mountain ridge line at an average rate of around 2.0 km/h. This was followed by a phase of intermittent rapid lateral fire spread close to the ridge line at a maximum rate of around 3.6 km/h. The intermittent rapid lateral fire spread was driven by strongly circulating horizontal near-surface winds that were associated with updraft-downdraft interfaces. These updraft-downdraft interfaces formed due to an interaction between the strong pyro-convection and terrain-modified winds. The presented research collectively demonstrated the versatility and effectiveness of NWP and coupled atmosphere-fire modelling for studying various aspects of atmospheric interactions with wildland fire. The research further highlighted the effects of atmospheric processes over complex terrain on fire weather conditions and wildland fire behaviour. Although three of the studies in the thesis had a regional focus on New Zealand, the research outcomes should benefit end users in fire management worldwide.

<p> The fire weather index (FWI), useful as a measure of forest fire danger, is calculated from precipitation and other weather variables. In the present environmental study, precipitation, fuel moisture codes, and fire behavior indices were available for a reference site and 4 higher elevation sites around Smithers, British Columbia. The objective of the study was to determine whether the use of local precipitation would lead to a different FWI than obtained from precipitation at the reference site.</p> <p> The features of the series of daily FWI values which needed to be taken into account were: peaks following dry periods, serial correlation, and heteroscedasticity. Two types of models were developed to characterize the record as a smooth component, for the upward and downward movements of the index, and a component of correlated error terms. The first type was a parametric Fourier series in a context of a generalized linear model (GLS) that allowed for serial correlation and heteroscedasticity. The second form was a smoothing cubic spline with a bootstrap procedure for estimation of standard errors and confidence bands. The question, of whether FWI on a particular day differed between a higher elevation station and the reference station, was addressed by adding a station effect to the GLS model and by graphical comparison of the smooth curves with confidence bands for the spline method.</p> <p> The Model-3 for the combined station effect is not able to capture the sharpness of the peak and found insignificant while cubic spline smoothing curves fitted to the bootstrap behave well to capture peaks and troughs in the index but it encounter some difficulties for few lower index values.</p> / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2006. / Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes appendices with Foy Lake pollen and charcoal data and fire atlas metadata. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 233-244). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Washington, 1998. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (110-119).

Au cours des dernières décennies, le nombre d'occurrences de catastrophes naturelles a augmenté sensiblement. Cette augmentation a des conséquences catastrophiques sur les espaces verts, les propriétés et les êtres vivants. L'énorme quantité de dommages a attiré l'attention des chercheurs, des organisations et des secteurs gouvernementaux et non-gouvernementaux vers l'analyse de ces phénomènes, leurs causes et leurs effets. Le but est de pouvoir reconnaître leurs comportements et prédire leur occurrence pour mieux aborder la phase de gestion des risques qui contribue à empêcher leur incidence ou limiter les conséquences. Le risque de d'incendie existe souvent et la présence de dangers est également possible. D'où l'importance de tout effort pour lutter contre de telles crises. Dans cette contribution, le phénomène des incendies de forêt est étudié. Au Liban, les espaces verts ont considérablement diminué au cours des dernières années, ce qui impose une intervention urgente des politiques et le soutien des organisations gouvernementales et non gouvernementales. L'orientation globale est d’aller vers des techniques qui permettent de prédire les risques élevés d'incendie permettant ainsi de prendre des précautions pour empêcher les occurrences d'incendie ou tout au moins limiter leurs conséquences. La prévision des incendies de forêt contribue à prévenir d'une part la fréquence des incendies et d'autre part, à réduire ses impacts sur les êtres vivants, les propriétés et la richesse forestière.... / During the last decades, the number of occurrences of natural disasters has increased noticeably which lead to catastrophic results on human as well as properties and green areas. But despite the huge amount of damages, this helps to draw the attention of researchers, organizations and the various governmental and non-governmental sectors towards analyzing these phenomena, their causes & effects, allowing to recognize their behaviors and the methods to predict their occurrence and thus reaching the phase of risk management contributing to prevent their incidence or limit the consequences. As the risk of happening often exists, the instantaneous presence of dangers is also possible. Here appears the importance of any effort that serves to tackle such crises. In this contribution, the phenomenon of forest fires is studied. In Lebanon, green areas declined dramatically during the last decades, what imposes an urgent intervention with strict governmental policies and support of non-governmental organizations. The global orientation is towards techniques that predict high fire risks, allowing for precautions to preclude fire occurrences or at least limit their consequences. Forest fire prediction proves to contribute in preventing fire occurrence or reducing its catastrophic impacts in worst cases on human lives, properties and green forestry....

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Oregon State University, 2009. / Printout. Includes bibliographical references. Also available on the World Wide Web.

Táto diplomová práca sa zaoberá novým prístupom k zhlukovaniu časových rád na základe dynamického faktorového modelu. Dynamický faktorový model je technika redukujúca dimenziu a rozširuje klasickú faktorovú analýzu o požiadavku autokorelačnej štruktúry latentných faktorov. Parametre modelu sa odhadujú pomocou EM algoritmu za použitia Kalmanovho filtra a vyhladzovača a taktiež sú aplikované nevyhnutné podmienky na model, aby sa stal identifikovateľným. Po tom, ako je v práci predstavený teoretický koncept prístupu, dynamický faktorový model je aplikovaný na skutočné pozorované časové rady a práca skúma jeho správanie a vlastnosti na jednomesačných meteorologických dátach požiarneho indexu (Fire Weather Index) na 108 požiarnych staniciach umiestnených v Britskej Kolumbii. Postup výpočtu modelu odhadne záťažovú maticu (loadings matrix) spolu so zodpovedajúcim malým počtom latentných faktorov a kovariačnou maticou modelovaných časových rád. Diplomová práca aplikuje k-means zhlukovanie na výslednú záťažovú maticu a ponúka rozdelenie meteorologických staníc do zhlukov založené na redukovanej dimenzionalite pôvodných dát. Vďaka odhadnutým priemerom zhlukov a odhadnutým latentným faktorom je možné získať aj priemerné trendy každého zhluku. Následne sú dosiahnuté výsledky porovnané s výsledkami získanými na dátach z rovnakých staníc avšak iného mesiaca, aby sa stanovila stabilita zhlukovania. Práca sa taktiež zaoberá efektom varimax rotácie záťažovej matice. Diplomová práca naviac navrhuje metódu detekovania odľahlých časových rád založenú na odhadnutej kovariačnej matici modelu a rozoberá dôsledky odľahlých hodnôt na odhanutý model.