The subject of this thesis is to develop a temporal neuro-fuzzy system for fore- casting the future behavior of a multivariate time series data. The system has two components combined by means of a system interface. First, a rule extraction method is designed which is named Fuzzy MAR (Multivari- ate Auto-regression). The method produces the temporal relationships between each of the variables and past values of all variables in the multivariate time series system in the form of fuzzy rules. These rules may constitute the rule-base in a fuzzy expert system. Second, a temporal neuro-fuzzy system which is named ANFIS unfolded in - time is designed in order to make the use of fuzzy rules, to provide an environment that keeps temporal relationships between the variables and to forecast the future behavior of data. The rule base of ANFIS unfolded in time contains temporal TSK(Takagi-Sugeno-Kang) fuzzy rules. In the training phase, Back-propagation learning algorithm is used. The system takes the multivariate data and the num- ber of lags needed which are the output of Fuzzy MAR in order to describe a variable and predicts the future behavior. Computer simulations are performed by using synthetic and real multivariate data and a benchmark problem (Gas Furnace Data) used in comparing neuro- fuzzy systems. The tests are performed in order to show how the system efficiently model and forecast the multivariate temporal data. Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves online learning and prediction on temporal data. The results are compared by other neuro-fuzzy systems, specifically ANFIS.

The importance of bottomland hardwood (BLH) forests to support the economy through timber production and carbon sequestration is acknowledged; however, their full potential is yet to be explored. This study developed variable density yield models for BLH oak-gum-cypress forests along the US Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi River Delta. The models, with an adjusted R2 of 98% for cubic foot growing stock volume and 77% for Doyle board foot sawlog volume, are expected to be valuable tools for landowners and managers seeking to make informed decisions about BLH forest management. A carbon stock model was also developed, and carbon sequestration was explored based on basal area increment. The results showed potential for carbon sequestration with an average carbon stock of 30.56 tons/acre and a maximum average discounted present value of carbon accumulation of $15.94/ton/acre/year. This provides valuable information to managers and landowners willing to participate in carbon credit markets.

In some classification problems where human judgments, qualitative and imprecise data exist, uncertainty comes from fuzziness rather than randomness. Limited number of fuzzy classification approaches is available for use for these classification problems to capture the effect of fuzzy uncertainty imbedded in data. The scope of this study mainly comprises two parts: new fuzzy classification approaches based on Tanaka&rsquo / s Fuzzy Linear Regression (FLR) approach, and an improvement of an existing one, Improved Fuzzy Classifier Functions (IFCF). Tanaka&rsquo / s FLR approach is a well known fuzzy regression technique used for the prediction problems including fuzzy type of uncertainty. In the first part of the study, three alternative approaches are presented, which utilize the FLR approach for a particular customer satisfaction classification problem. A comparison of their performances and their applicability in other cases are discussed. In the second part of the study, the improved IFCF method, Nonparametric Improved Fuzzy Classifier Functions (NIFCF), is presented, which proposes to use a nonparametric method, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), in clustering phase of the IFCF method. NIFCF method is applied on three data sets, and compared with Fuzzy Classifier Function (FCF) and Logistic Regression (LR) methods.

使用傳統迴歸的方式對未知事物做預測，往往不能夠精準的做出結論，縱使在相同的條件下實際去操作，也很難得到相同的結果，因此模糊數概念的建立，並運用在迴歸分析上更能有效描述預測結果的不確定性。然而模糊線性迴歸(Fuzzy Linear Regression)在利用最小平方法處理問題時，往往過於著重在模糊區間的中心與分展度上，而忽略了描述資料的模糊性，使得隸屬度函數(membership function)的功能受到相當大的限制。本文在D'Urso和Gastaldi(2000)所提出的雙重模糊線性迴歸(doubly fuzzy linear regression)模型架構下，利用Yang和Ko(1996)在LR空間下所定義模糊數間的距離公式，導出能反映隸屬度函數的最小平方估計，並引進一些傳統迴歸中常用來偵測離群值(outlier)與具影響力觀察值(influence observation)的概念與技巧，應用在模糊線性迴歸資料的偵測上。