Space travelers in science fiction can drop out of hyperspace and make a pinpoint landing on any strange new world without stopping to get their bearings, but real-life space navigation is an art characterized by limited information and complex mathematics that yield no easy answers. This study investigates, for the first time ever, what position and velocity estimation errors can be expected by a starship arriving at a distant star - specifically, a miniature probe like those proposed by the Breakthrough Starshot initiative arriving at Proxima Centauri. Such a probe consists of nothing but a small optical camera and a small microprocessor, and must therefore rely on relatively simple methods to determine its position and velocity, such as observing the angles between its destination and certain guide stars and processing them in an algorithm known as an extended Kalman filter. However, this algorithm is designed for scenarios in which the position and velocity are already known to high accuracy. This study shows that the extended Kalman filter can reliably estimate the position and velocity of the Starshot probe at speeds characteristic of current space probes, but does not attempt to model the filter’s performance at speeds characteristic of Starshot-style proposals. The gravity of the target star is also estimated using the same methods.

This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. The suggested Constrained Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator exhibits some useful properties for trade policy analysis and allows to obtain estimates and confidence intervals which are consistent with structural trade theory. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that UKs (EUs) exports of goods to the EU (UK) are likely to decline within a range between 7.2% and 45.7% (5.9% and 38.2%) six years after the Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic goods trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in UKs real income between 1.4% and 5.7% under the hard Brexit scenario. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are negligible in magnitude and statistically not different from zero. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series