Bottomland hardwood stands of the Mid-South region of the United States are some of the most productive forests in the country. A large percentage of these stands are owned by nonindustrial private forest landowners, who have little information on which to base management decisions. These stands are, therefore, a largely unmanaged and under-utilized reserve of high quality hardwoods. To provide landowners with a decision-making tool for comparing management scenarios, a growth and yield study was initiated in 1981. One hundred and fifty permanent plots were installed in red oaksweetgum stands. The study has been remeasured three times over the past 35 years. New plots were added when losses occurred due to natural disasters or harvesting. Stand level (Iles 2008), log grade volume distribution (Banzhaf 2009), and diameter distribution (Howard 2011) models were developed as component models of the overall growth and yield system. This study completes the modeling effort by developing individual tree equations for percent annual diameter growth and survival. Equations were constructed using linear, non-linear, and logistic regression techniques. The best set of developed equations was selected based on biological consistency, joint behavior when inserted into the growth and yield computer model, and the performance of each plot’s predicted future yield when compared to its observed data at the next projection period. Final independent stand level variables for the two models included age, diameter at breast height, trees per acre, and average height of dominant trees. Percent diameter growth and survival equations exhibited high fit statistics and when coupled with the other equations in the computer model, produced estimates for trees per acre, basal area, arithmetic and quadratic mean diameters with low bias and root mean squared error. The resulting growth and yield simulator implemented in Microsoft Visual Basic® Editor within Microsoft Excel® enables forest professionals and landowners to make better management decisions for their red oak-sweetgum mixture bottomland hardwood stands by projecting current forest inventories into the future, predicting average yields, and evaluating and comparing forest management scenarios.

This study explores the biophysical potential and economic attractiveness of black spruce (Picea mariana) regeneration in eastern Canada under future climate changes. It integrates process-based ecosystem model simulated forest productivities from three major global climate models (GCMs), growth and yield formulations specific to black spruce and economic analyses to determine the overall investment value of black spruce, both including and excluding carbon sequestration benefits. Net present value (NPV) was estimated to represent the financial attractiveness of long-rotation forest plantations through time. It was assumed that stands would not be harvested at volumes less than 80 m3 ha-1. The price of stumpage was set to $20 m-3, stand establishment cost was set to $500 ha-1, and the discount rate was considered at 4%, with sensitivity analyses conducted around these assumptions. The growth and yield of black spruce was simulated for an extreme future climate scenario – IPCC-RCP 8.5. The results suggested a general North-South gradient in forest productivity where gross merchantable wood volumes increased with decreasing latitudes. This pattern was also observed in NPVs, with higher values projected for the southern portion of the study area. Based on the base economic assumptions and sensitivity analyses, study results suggested that black spruce plantations are not economically attractive, unless carbon sequestration benefits of at least $5 ton-1 CO2 are realized. Further sensitivity analyses showed that discount rate plays a significant role in determining the optimal harvest age and value. Furthermore, the optimal harvest rotation age increases with increasing carbon price by approximately 9 to 18 years. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)