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One of the three largest systems of black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) colonies is located in northwestern Chihuahua, Mexico. During the last two decades, the area occupied by these colonies has been highly reduced and fragmented. Previous studies suggested that agriculture, poisoning, cattle overgrazing and shrub encroachment could be the factors responsible for such declines. However, the severe drought occurring in the region between 1994 and 2004 has not been considered in this equation. Because these populations occur in arid regions at the southern edge of the species range, they could be especially sensitive to changes in plant productivity. Furthermore, fragmentation of colonies may accelerate population declines due to size and isolation effects. In this study, I analyzed species-habitat relationships at different spatial and temporal scales to understand the causes of recent declines of BTPDs in northwestern Chihuahua. The most severe loss of colony area and most local extinctions occurred between 1988 and 2000, but most likely before 1997. Extinction of colonies before 2000 mostly occurred at small and isolated colonies in low-productivity areas. The coincidence of greatest area decline with the occurrence of most intense drought suggests a prominent role of drought in the population collapse. Overall, patterns of BTPD occurrence and abundance in Chihuahua are greatly influenced by spatial and temporal variation in forage cover. Although BTPDs were more likely to occur in open areas with short vegetation, increased forage cover positively predicted occurrence. High levels of forage cover during the dry season were positively related with BTPD density, juvenile production and population rate of change, but forage cover during the preceding rainy season was a negative predictor of demographic indices. High plant productivity during humid periods seems to have negative impacts on BTPD populations, presumably because the rapid plant growth reduces visibility and predator detection by BTPDs. The most influential landscape variable was the effective isolation of colonies. Although increased isolation may reduce the probability of occurrence at a given site, highly isolated locations may support high population densities. Contrary to my original predictions, I did not detect significant impacts of human-related factors on BTPD distribution and abundance. / Ecology

Over the past 100–150 years Texas rangelands have dramatically changed from native open savannahs to dense woodlands. On the Edwards plateau, a major management concern is the increasing encroachment of Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei). Preceding an anticipated brush management program, I investigated the presence, co-occurrence, and habitat relationships of 7 breeding bird species in the Leon River Watershed in central Texas, USA: black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapillus), golden-cheeked warbler (Dendroica chrysoparia), northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus), white-eyed vireo (Vireo griseus), Bell’s vireo (Vireo bellii), painted bunting (Passerina ciris), and brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater). Vegetation characteristics were compared between sites occupied by each species and unoccupied sites using univariate analysis. Models for predicting species site occupancy were developed (using logistic regression) based on habitat characteristics correlated with the presence of each species. Two species of special concern, the endangered black-capped vireo and golden-cheeked warbler occupied 5.6% of sites and 13.8% of sites respectively, while the brood parasite brown-headed cowbird was the most widespread, occupying 86.8% of sites. Species co-occurrence patterns revealed significant associations between the golden-cheeked warbler and each of 5 other species. For most species, variables included in habitat models could be explained by knowledge of species known habitat associations. For example, the black-capped vireo was positively associated with increasing low-growing (<1.5 m) hardwood cover and with Low Stony Hill ecological sites. The golden-cheeked warbler was positively associated with increasing density of larger juniper trees, increasing variability in vertical vegetation structure, and decreasing midstory canopy of deciduous nonoaks (e.g., cedar elm [Ulmus crasifolia]). It also preferred Low Stony Hill and Steep Adobe ecological sites. Site occupancy seemed to be driven by variables that describe overall vegetation structure. In particular, cover of low-growing non-juniper vegetation and juniper tree density appeared to be important in determining site occupancy for several species. Although the models constructed were not very robust, resource managers can still benefit from such models because they provide a preliminary examination of important controlling variables. Managing rangelands to maintain or restore a mosaic of juniper patches and open shrublands are likely to help meet the habitat requirements of these bird communities.