Human activities have fundamentally shaped ecosystems across the globe. While this is often associated with degradation, cultures with alternative philosophies can leave a different kind of legacy. First Nations in the temperate rainforest of coastal British Columbia, like the Heiltsuk and Wuikinuxv, have inhabited the land for over 14,000 years, leaving behind tangible legacies in the plant communities we see today. From fine-scale effects of enriched plant leaves to landscape-level species distributions, this research investigates the ecological legacies of human land use and management—both past and present. In one chapter, I test if plants growing on ancient, human-modified soils are enriched in nutrients. I find that plants growing on these sites contain more phosphorus and sodium, which generally benefit fruit production and overall growth. This aligns with oral histories that describe fertilized shrubs as having berries that are bigger, healthier, tastier, and more productive. In the following chapter, I create models that predict the distribution of culturally important plants. With the Heiltsuk Integrated Resource Management Department, I develop a framework for habitat suitability modelling that can be used as a tool for aiding their resource management decisions. All models performed well (AUC = 0.9 overall), and offer insight into suitable habitat across a 3,600 km2 area. Out of five predictor variables, distance to shore, site series (a vegetation index), and human influence contributed the most to model performance. This research contributes a practical tool for resource management and adds to the growing body of interdisciplinary knowledge that uses scientific methods to answer questions of cultural significance. In a time of overlapping environmental crises—like climate change and biodiversity loss—it is important to be aware of the positive influence humans can have on the environment, and how this can offer a hopeful direction for resource management into the future. / Graduate

Human activities in the form of land use changes, urbanisation and infrastructure developments are major threats to biodiversity. The loss and fragmentation of natural habitats are great obstacles for the long term preservation of biodiversity and nature protection measures alone may not be sufficient to tackle the problem. Environmental impact assessment (EIA) and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) play a central role in identifying, predicting and managing the impacts of human activities on biodiversity. The review of current practice suggests that the complexity of the task is underestimated and that new methodological approaches encompassing the entire landscape are needed. Spatial aspects of the assessment and the lack of information on scale-related issues are particular problems affecting the appropriate assessment of cumulative effects. In parallel with the development and establishment of EIA and SEA, spatial modelling is an expanding field in ecology and many derived applications could be suitable for the prediction and assessment of biodiversity-related impacts. The diversity of modelling methods suggests that a strategy is needed to identify prediction methods appropriate for EIA and SEA. The relevance and potential limitations of GIS-based species distribution and habitat models in predicting impacts on biodiversity were examined in three studies in the greater Stockholm area. Distinct approaches to habitat suitability modelling were compared from the perspective of environmental assessment needs and requirements. The results showed that model performance, validity and ultimate suitability for planning applications were strongly dependent on empirical data and expert knowledge. The methods allowed visual, qualitative and quantitative assessment of habitat loss, thus improving decision support for assessment of impacts on biodiversity. The proposed methods allowed areas of high ecological value and the surrounding landscape to be considered in the same assessment, thereby contributing to better integration of biodiversity issues in physical planning. / QC 20100727

Abstract The protection of endangered species requires knowledge about the habitat requirements and the genetic issues related to the population viability. In this doctoral thesis, I defined the breeding habitat features of the Finnish populations of the Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) and the Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus) by applying habitat suitability modelling. Secondly, I studied the conservation genetic issues of the Finnish population of the White-tailed Eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla) and the two Reed Bunting subspecies Emberiza schoeniclus witherbyi and E.s. lusitanica met in the Iberian Peninsula. All study populations are classified as threatened according to IUCN classification and they have experienced declines in population sizes in recent history. My results from habitat suitability models showed that human-induced changes in habitat threaten the Golden Eagle in Finland. The relative suitability for the species presence dropped to zero when the proportion of human altered landscape (agricultural or urbanized areas) in the core of the breeding habitat (4 km2) was more than 5%. Models further showed that habitat structure influences breeding habitat selection of the Peregrine Falcon, as it favours well-connected areas of open peatlands. Therefore, fragmentation (i.e., decreasing the connectivity) of open peatlands decreases the habitat quality for the species. The White-tailed Eagle has recovered mainly through local growth, but my results suggest that gene flow from neighbouring populations has had an impact as well, and has enhanced the genetic viability of the Finnish population. The current structure of the two subpopulations (one along the Baltic Sea coast line and another inland in Northern Finland) results mainly from the species’ ecology (i.e., philopatric behaviour), not from the recent population bottlenecks. The effective population size estimate of the coastal subpopulation of White-tailed Eagle was below the critical size needed to maintain evolutionary potential. The estimates of the effective population sizes for E.s. lusitanica and E.s. witherbyi and inland subpopulation of White-tailed Eagle were close or below the critical level of 50, which makes them prone to losing fitness due to inbreeding depression in the short term. Therefore, these study populations need to increase in size in order to secure population viability in the future. / Tiivistelmä Ihmisen aiheuttamat elinympäristöjen muutokset uhkaavat biodiversiteettiä kasvattamalla yhä useampien eliölajien sukupuuttoriskiä. Tehokkaat suojelutoimenpiteet edellyttävät tietoa uhanalaisten lajien elinympäristövaatimuksista sekä populaation elinkyvylle keskeisistä geneettisistä tekijöistä. Tarkastelen väitöskirjatyössäni maakotkan (Aquila chrysaetos) sekä muuttohaukan (Falco peregrinus) Suomen populaatioiden pesimäympäristön piirteitä maisemaekologisen mallinnuksen avulla. Toiseksi tarkastelen Suomen merikotkapopulaation (Haliaeetus albicilla) sekä Iberian niemimaalla esiintyvien pajusirkun alalajien Emberiza schoeniclus witherbyin ja E.s. lusitanican suojelun kannalta tärkeitä geneettisiä tekijöitä. Kaikki tutkimuspopulaatiot ovat uhanalaisia ja ne ovat kärsineet voimakkaista kannan pienenemisistä. Maisemaekologiset mallit osoittivat maakotkan välttävän ihmisen muokkaamaa ympäristöä (maatalousalueet ja rakennetut alueet). Lajin esiintymistodennäköisyys laski nopeasti nollaan, kun ihmisen muokkaaman ympäristön osuus nousi yli 5 prosenttiin pesimäympäristön ydinalueella (4 km2). Mallit osoittivat maiseman rakenteen vaikuttavan muuttohaukan habitaatinvalintaan, sillä se suosi pesimäympäristönään kytkeytyneitä avosoita. Avosoiden pirstoutuminen (l. kytkeytyneisyyden väheneminen) vähentää näin ollen muuttohaukan pesimäympäristön laatua. Merikotkapopulaatio on toipunut pääosin paikallisen kasvun myötä, mutta tulokseni viittaavat myös siihen, että geenivirta naapurimaiden populaatioista on lisännyt Suomen populaation geneettistä muuntelua. Nykyinen rakenne (rannikon ja Lapin alapopulaatiot) on seurausta lajin synnyinpaikkauskollisuudesta, ei niinkään populaatiokoon romahduksista. Rannikon merikotkapopulaation efektiivinen koko jäi alle kriittisen rajan, joka tarvitaan evolutiivisen potentiaalin säilymiselle. Pajusirkun alalajien sekä Lapin merikotkapopulaation efektiiviset populaatiokoot olivat lähellä kriittisenä pidettyä 50:tä tai jäivät alle, joten ne ovat vaarassa menettää kelpoisuutta sukusiitosdepression seurauksena lyhyellä aikavälillä. Sekä pajusirkun alalajien että merikotkapopulaatioiden tulee sen vuoksi kasvaa säilyäkseen elinvoimaisina tulevaisuudessa.

In this thesis a number of statistical methods have been developed and applied to habitat suitability modelling for rare and threatened species. Data available on these species are typically limited. Therefore, developing these models from these data can be problematic and may produce prediction biases. To address these problems there are three aims of this thesis. The _rst aim is to develop and implement frequentist and Bayesian statistical modelling approaches for these types of data. The second aim is develop and implement expert elicitation methods. The third aim is to apply these novel approaches to Australian rare and threatened species case studies with the intention of habitat suitability modelling. The _rst aim is ful_lled by investigating two innovative approaches for habitat suitability modelling and sensitivity analysis of the second approach to priors. The _rst approach is a new multilevel framework developed to model the species distribution at multiple scales and identify excess zeros (absences outside the species range). Applying a statistical modelling approach to the identi_cation of excess zeros has not previously been conducted. The second approach is an extension and application of Bayesian classi_cation trees to modelling the habitat suitability of a threatened species. This is the _rst `real' application of this approach in ecology. Lastly, sensitivity analysis of the priors in Bayesian classi_cation trees are examined for a real case study. Previously, sensitivity analysis of this approach to priors has not been examined. To address the second aim, expert elicitation methods are developed, extended and compared in this thesis. In particular, one elicitation approach is extended from previous research, there is a comparison of three elicitation methods, and one new elicitation approach is proposed. These approaches are illustrated for habitat suitability modelling of a rare species and the opinions of one or two experts are elicited. The _rst approach utilises a simple questionnaire, in which expert opinion is elicited on whether increasing values of a covariate either increases, decreases or does not substantively impact on a response. This approach is extended to express this information as a mixture of three normally distributed prior distributions, which are then combined with available presence/absence data in a logistic regression. This is one of the _rst elicitation approaches within the habitat suitability modelling literature that is appropriate for experts with limited statistical knowledge and can be used to elicit information from single or multiple experts. Three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression are compared, one of which is the questionnaire approach. Included in this comparison of three elicitation methods are a summary of the advantages and disadvantages of these three methods, the results from elicitations and comparison of the prior and posterior distributions. An expert elicitation approach is developed for classi_cation trees, in which the size and structure of the tree is elicited. There have been numerous elicitation approaches proposed for logistic regression, however no approaches have been suggested for classi_cation trees. The last aim of this thesis is addressed in all chapters, since the statistical approaches proposed and extended in this thesis have been applied to real case studies. Two case studies have been examined in this thesis. The _rst is the rare native Australian thistle (Stemmacantha australis), in which the dataset contains a large number of absences distributed over the majority of Queensland, and a small number of presence sites that are only within South-East Queensland. This case study motivated the multilevel modelling framework. The second case study is the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The application and sensitivity analysis of Bayesian classi_cation trees, and all expert elicitation approaches investigated in this thesis are applied to this case study. This work has several implications for conservation and management of rare and threatened species. Novel statistical approaches addressing the _rst aim provide extensions to currently existing methods, or propose a new approach, for identi _cation of current and potential habitat. We demonstrate that better model predictions can be achieved using each method, compared to standard techniques. Elicitation approaches addressing the second aim ensure expert knowledge in various forms can be harnessed for habitat modelling, a particular bene_t for rare and threatened species which typically have limited data. Throughout, innovations in statistical methodology are both motivated and illustrated via habitat modelling for two rare and threatened species: the native thistle Stemmacantha australis and the brush-tailed rock wallaby Petrogale penicillata.