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The objective of this thesis is to develop statistical models for multivariate road accident data. Two directions of research are followed: graphical modelling for contingency tables cross-classified by accident characteristics, and hierarchical Bayesian models for multiple accident frequencies of different types modelled jointly. Multi-dimensional tables are analysed and it is shown how to use collapsibility to reduce the dimensionality of the analysis without the problems of Simpson's paradox. It is revealed that accident severity and the number of casualties are associated, and that these variables are mainly influenced by the number of vehicles and speed limit. Graphical chain models allow causal hypotheses to be formulated and it is shown how they are valuable tools for empirical research about road accident characteristics. The hierarchical Bayesian models developed combine generalized linear models with random effects. The novelty of these models consists in the joint modelling of multiple response variables. The models account for overdispersion and they are used for accident prediction and for ranking hazardous sites. All models are fully Bayesian and are fitted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. It is shown that multiple response variables models are superior to separate univariate response models. Some theoretical problems are examined regarding the maximum likelihood estimation process for the two parameters negative binomial distribution. A condition is given that is equivalent with unique maximum likelihood estimators. The two directions of research are connected by using graphs to describe the models. In addition, a new Bayesian model selection procedure for contingency tables is proposed. This is based on Gibbs sampling and avoids problems associated with asymptotic tests. The conclusions revealed here can help practitioners to design better safety policies and to spend money more wisely on sites that really are dangerous.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin, 1966. / Typescript. Vita. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ed.M.)--Boston University

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Boston University / Historically speaking, the Grange has been treated as an essentially Midwestern phenomenon that flourished and died during the depression decade of the 1870's. The Grangers themselves are remembered chiefly for their crusades against the railroads and other corporate oppressors of the rural classes and as forerunners of the Populists and the Progressives of a later era. This interpretation is based largely on Solon Justus Buck's well-known work, The Granger Movement. This dissertation develops a revisionist view, suggested by Dennis S. Nordin, which distinguishes between the Granger movement described by Buck and a later one, concentrated in New England, New York, Pennsylvania and the eastern Midwest during the period 1880-1920. Furthermore it deals specifically with the Grange, or Patrons of Husbandry, rather than that class of agrarian protesters loosely labeled "Grangers" by Buck. The Grange proper was primarily a fraternal order whose chief mission was the social and intellectual advancement of farmers and their families, not attacks on business. The present study examines the Grange in the two New England states where it was strongest and probably most influential [TRUNCATED]

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 1979. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Bibliography: leaves 284-302. / by Marc Charles Loiselle. / Ph.D.

L’Europe occidentale enregistre d’importants changements paléogéographiques entre la fin du Mésozoïque et le Paléogène, en réponse à des évènements géodynamiques en limites de plaques. Les déformations affectant le NW de la plaque européenne ont déjà bien été identifiées dans plusieurs bassins, mais elles sont en revanche mal contraintes en Manche. L’objectif de cette thèse est ainsi de reconstruire les évolutions sédimentaires et structurales de la Manche orientale au cours du Paléogène et de les replacer dans le contexte géodynamique du domaine Ouest-Européen à travers l’étude du Bassin de Dieppe-Hampshire, dont la stratigraphie et le calendrier des déformations ne sont pas précisément connus. Ces travaux s’appuient sur l’apport de nouvelles données de sismique réflexion très haute résolution et de nouveaux carottages. L’analyse du remplissage sédimentaire a permis d’établir le cadre stratigraphique, de proposer un découpage séquentiel avec l’identification de quatre cycles de 2ème ordre entre le Thanétien et le Bartonien, et de cartographier la partie méridionale du bassin. La corrélation de ces cycles avec les bassins cénozoïques proches a permis de mettre en évidence cinq phases de déformation ayant affecté le Bassin Anglo-Parisien. Grâce à une analyse structurale fine, nous avons également pu détailler le style et la cinématique de la déformation en Manche orientale, proposer un calendrier de cette déformation, et enfin établir le rôle joué par l’héritage structural régional sur l’évolution paléogène du domaine. / Major paleogeographic changes are recorded within Western Europe between the end of Cretaceous and Paleogene times, in response of tectonic events along European plate boundaries. The deformation affecting the NW part of the European plate are already well identified in the Paris Basin, the Belgian Basin and in Southern England, however it is poorly constrained within the English Channel. The objective of this thesis is thus to reconstruct sedimentary and structural evolutions of the Eastern English Channel during Paleogene times, and to replace these evolutions within the geodynamic context of the Western European domain. This thesis has been focalized on the Dieppe-Hampshire Basin, for which the stratigraphy and the timing of the deformation are not precisely known. This work is based on the contribution of new very high resolution seismic reflection data and of new coring samples. The analysis of the sedimentary filling allowed to establish the stratigraphic framework, to propose a sequence stratigraphic division with the identification of four 2nd order cycles between the Thanetian and the Bartonian, and to map the southern part of the basin. The correlation of these cycles with surrounding Cenozoic basins led to evidence five deformation phases which have affected the Anglo-Paris Basin. Thanks to a careful structural analysis, we also detailed the style and the kinematics of the deformation in the Eastern English Channel, we proposed a deformation schedule and we established the role played by the regional structural inheritance on the Paleogene evolution of the domain.

Thesis (M.S.)--Boston University

Thesis (Ed.M.)--Boston University