Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Texas at Austin, 2008. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Volcanic eruptions and unrest have the potential to have large impacts on society causing social, economic and environmental losses. One of the primary goals of volcanological studies is to understand a volcano’s behaviour so that future instances of unrest or impending eruptions can be predicted. Despite this, our ability to predict the onset, location and size of future periods of unrest remains inadequate and one of the main problems in forecasting is associated with the inherent complexity of volcanoes. In practice, most reliable forecasts have employed a probabilistic approach where knowledge of volcanic activity triggers have been incorporated into scenarios to indicate the probability of unrest. The proposed relationship between large earthquakes and volcanic activity may, therefore, indicate an important precursory signal for volcanic activity forecasting. There have been numerous reports of a spatial and temporal link between volcanic activity and high magnitude seismic events and it has been suggested that significantly more periods of volcanic unrest occur in the months and years following an earthquake than expected by chance. Disparities between earthquake-volcano assessments and variability between responding volcanoes, however, has meant that the conditions that influence a volcano’s response to earthquakes have not been determined. Using data from the MODVOLC algorithm, a proxy for volcanic activity, this research examined a globally comparable database of satellite-derived volcanic radiant flux to identify significant changes in volcanic activity following an earthquake. Cases of potentially triggered volcanic activity were then analysed to identify the earthquake and volcano parameters that influence the relationship and evaluate the mechansisms proposed to trigger volcanic activity following an earthquake. At a global scale, this research identified that 57% [8 out of 14] of all large magnitude earthquakes were followed by increases in global volcanic activity. The most significant change in volcanic radiant flux, which demonstrates the potential of large earthquakes to influence volcanic activity at a global scale, occurred between December 2004 and April 2005. During this time, new thermal activity was detected at 10 volcanoes and the total daily volcanic radiant flux doubled within 52 days. Within a regional setting, this research also identified that instances of potentially triggered volcanic activity were statistically different to instances where no triggering was observed. In addition, assessments of earthquake and volcano parameters identified that earthquake fault characteristics increase the probability of triggered volcanic activity and variable response proportions at individual volcanoes and regionally demonstrated the critical role of the state of the volcanic system in determining if a volcano will respond. Despite the identification of these factors, this research was not able to define a model for the prediction of volcanic activity following earthquakes and, alternatively, proposed a process for response. In doing so, this thesis confirmed the potential use of earthquakes as a precursory indicator to volcanic activity and identified the most likely mechanisms that lead to seismically triggered volcanic unrest.

-1- Summary The aim of the thesis is to assess the impact of the recodification of private law on the phenomenon of moral hazard. In order to achieve the goal, the old and new legislation were compared in order to identify key changes and analyse their nature, in terms of their positive or negative impact on the potential occurrence of moral hazard. In the theoretical part, moral hazard was defined and systematized in the context of so- called "old" and "new" market failures. The author also offered a key contemporary definition of the term. Increased attention has also been paid to the issue of incomplete and asymmetric information that often coexists with or potentially enhances moral hazard. In the second part of the theoretical part, the author of the thesis focuses on defining the specifics of moral hazard, taking into account the Czech practice. The phenomena of insurance, health, monetary policy, banking, financial consulting and corporate governance are gradually being mentioned. The issue of representation and black passenger is also accented. The difference between moral hazard behaviour and fraud is also described. In the practical part, the author compares the selected institutes of private law across new and old legislation. This part is divided into various general institutes, which are based...

This diploma thesis focuses on moral hazard in the recent financial crisis which was caused by the burst of the housing bubble in the United States of America almost nine years ago. The main contribution of this thesis is providing evidence of possibility to measure moral hazard. This measuring possibility is achieved by establishing key indicators which are linked to various types of moral hazard according to its origin or closest relation. The thesis also in part drafts a solution to moral hazard in the form of an effective regulation. This thesis is written comprehensibly and does not provide information about every detail of the financial crisis. Regardless of that it still provides most readers interesting and useful piece of information, which they probably have not encountered elsewhere.

The objective of this thesis is to analyse which role Moral Hazard played in recent financial crisis. By combining theory of Moral Hazard, risk and Corporate Governance, this thesis describes the means by which Moral Hazard sneaks into economy. By his presence, economy can get on the track leading to financial crisis. This thesis brings unconventional views on some elements of the economic environment such as limited liability, risk insurance or management bonuses. Classic explanation of their impacts is critically thought through.

Autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in agriculture are increasingly in demand to reduce cost, labour and increase effectiveness and quality in farming. However, it is necessary to improve reliability for this technology to perform its full potential without harming humans, animals or the environment. The reliability increases by identifying the hazards and mitigating them. Therefore the risks are identified, analyzed and mitigated using analysis tools. Two different methods are used to analyze and reduce hazards, and each method utilizes various analysis tools. In addition, redundancy and preventive action are proposed to eliminate or minimize the danger. This thesis identifies risks by studying and reviewing a generic use-case from the AFarCloud project and compares the two hazard analysis methods to determine which method provides the most reliable result.

Lahars pose a significant risk to communities, particularly those living near snow-capped volcanoes. Flows of mud and debris, typically but not necessarily triggered by volcanic activity, can have huge impacts, such as those seen at Nevado Del Ruiz, Colombia, in 1985 which led to the loss of over 23,000 lives and destroyed an entire town. We surveyed communities around Mount Rainier, Washington, United States, where over 150,000 people are at risk from lahar impacts. We explored how factors including demographics, social effects such as perceptions of community preparedness, evacuation drills, and cognitive factors such as risk perception and self-efficacy relate to preparedness when living within or nearby a volcanic hazard zone. Key findings include: women have stronger intentions to prepare but see themselves as less prepared than men; those who neither live nor work in a lahar hazard zone were more likely to have an emergency kit and to see themselves as more prepared; those who will need help to evacuate see the risk as lower but feel less prepared; those who think their community and officials are more prepared feel more prepared themselves; and benefits of evacuation drills and testing evacuation routes including stronger intentions to evacuate using an encouraged method and higher self-efficacy. We make a number of recommendations based on these findings including the critical practice of regular evacuation drills and the importance of ongoing messaging that focuses on appropriate ways to evacuate as well as the careful recommendation for residents to identify alternative unofficial evacuation routes.

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Arthur’s Pass township, located close to the Main Divide of the central Southern Alps, is highly exposed to natural hazards and has been affected by hazard events since it was founded in 1906. The village is a small alpine township, with a permanent resident population of approximately 54. Its location within the Arthur’s Pass National Park and on the main road between the east and west coasts of the South Island makes it popular with tourists, trampers, climbers and skiers, which can expand the local population to up to 500 people. Its position on the Bealey River floodplain within a highly dynamic tectonic and geomorphic environment makes it vulnerable to earthquakes, landslides, rockfalls, debris flows, heavy rain and snow, river flooding and riverbed erosion. Previous investigations on natural hazards in the area are limited to the Otira Gorge and State Highway 73, with little focus on hazards affecting the village area. Natural hazard events are persistent and frequent in the Arthur’s Pass region and the village is susceptible to being isolated from external resources during and after a disaster, making it necessary for the village to be self-sufficient during a large-scale disaster. The hazards were identified and analysed using aerial photographs and satellite images, historical data, supported by in-field reconnaissance at various times of the year to record seasonal changes. Hazard mapping used the same methods to illustrate the spatial and volumetric hazard changes over a range of time scales; >2% annual probability of occurrence (0-50 years recurrence interval), 2%-0.2% annual probability of occurrence (50-500 years recurrence interval) and <0.2% annual probability of occurrence (500+ years recurrence interval). The hazard maps show that that most hazards are not restricted to a specific temporal or spatial scale, and that they are often interdependent. It is difficult to determine the precise effects that climate change and global warming will have on natural hazards, but they are expected to increase the unpredictability of hazard events and alter weather patterns significantly in the long-term. A visitor questionnaire undertaken in the village indicated that many visitors do not regard the hazards as severe enough to represent a legitimate threat; hence the public perceptions of natural hazards are affecting the vulnerability of the village. Additionally, many people do not feel confident that they would know what to do if a disaster did occur in the village. This level of awareness can be improved by providing more information to visitors and displaying details on emergency procedures. The village does not currently have an emergency plan that specifies particular preparedness and response procedures; it relies heavily on a plan adapted from Mt. Cook/Aoraki village. Current emergency management in the village could be improved by the production of an emergency plan specifically for the region, the use of education schemes and information sessions, and the installation of warning signs. The provision of this detailed hazard investigation and hazard maps is intended to assist emergency managers to identify, prioritise, mitigate the hazards to reduce the vulnerability of the village to natural hazards in the short- and long-terms.