As more dams experience spillway flows from flood events, identification and analysis of erosion in auxiliary rock surface spillways has become a primary focus in maintaining dam integrity. The spillway erosion risk assessment developed for this research is based on parameters identified and discussed in previous research as the leading factors influencing spillway damage from erosion. Parameters applied in this analysis were channel geometry, stream hydrology, and geologic materials. Channel geometry is described by the length of spillway channel and slope of the spillway floor; stream hydrology is classified by the peak discharge and its duration; and geologic material is identified by its behavior in resisting erosion. The Sites Spillway Erosion Analysis (SSEA) was used to produce a risk assessment based on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers case histories. The risk assessment was used to classify and refine model uncertainties, an important advancement in evaluating spillway erosion.