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Adherence to and Persistence with Adjuvant Hormone Therapy and Associated Clinical Outcomes and Economic Outcomes in Older Women with Breast CancerDandan Zheng (6191837) 30 September 2022 (has links)
<p>Despite the proven clinical benefits of use of adjuvant hormone therapy with tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitors for breast cancer, adherence to and persistence with adjuvant hormone therapy are suboptimal. It is critical to understand the clinical and economic impacts of low adherence to and low persistence with adjuvant hormone therapy in breast cancer. The overall objective was to assess associations between adherence to and persistence with adjuvant hormone therapy and mortality, healthcare utilization, and healthcare costs among older women with breast cancer. A retrospective longitudinal analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry linked with Medicare claims was conducted. This study included 25,796 older women diagnosed with hormone receptor-positive stage I-III breast cancer from 2009 through 2017. Adherence was defined as having proportion of days covered (PDC) of 0.80 or more. Persistence was defined as having no hormone therapy discontinuation, i.e., a break of at least 180 continuous days. Length of persistence was calculated as time from therapy initiation to discontinuation. All analyses were conducted using SAS 9.4 and RStudio for Linux environment. An <em>a priori</em> alpha level of 0.05 was used to determine significance for all the analyses. Time-dependent Cox models were used to assess associations between adherence to and persistence with adjuvant hormone therapy and mortality. Hurdle generalized linear mixed models were used to assess associations between adherence and persistence with annual number of hospitalizations, hospital days, hospital outpatient visits, inpatient costs, and outpatient costs across five years to account for excess zeroes. Generalized linear mixed models were used for other types of healthcare utilization and costs. Annual adherence rates were 78.1 percent, 75.2 percent, 72.4 percent, 70.0 percent, and 61.5 percent from year-one to year-five after hormone therapy initiation. Persistence rates were 87.5 percent, 81.7 percent, 77.1 percent, 72.9 percent, and 68.9 percent through cumulative intervals of one year up to five years after hormone therapy initiation. Adherence was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality, but was not significantly associated with breast cancer-specific mortality. Both being persistent and longer persistence were associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality and lower risk of breast cancer-specific mortality. Being adherent was associated with fewer hospitalizations, fewer hospital days, fewer emergency room visits, and fewer hospital outpatient visits, but was not associated with physician office visits. Being persistent was associated with fewer hospital days, fewer emergency room visits, and fewer hospital outpatient visits, but was associated with more physician office visits. Longer persistence was associated with fewer hospital days, fewer emergency room visits, and fewer hospital outpatient visits, but was not significantly associated with physician office visits. Adherent women had lower inpatient costs, lower outpatient costs, lower medical costs, and lower total healthcare costs despite higher prescription drug costs. Both being persistent and longer persistence were associated with lower inpatient costs, lower outpatient costs, lower medical costs, and lower total healthcare costs despite higher prescription drug costs. </p>
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Cobertura do custo da cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica pelo repasse do Sistema Único de Saúde em uma instituição filantrópica / Coverage of the costs of coronary artery bypass surgery by the transfer of funds from the Unified Public Health System [Sistema Único de Saúde] in a philanthropic institutionSilva, Gilmara Silveira da 28 June 2016 (has links)
Introdução: A falta de sistemas estruturados de custeio nas organizações hospitalares, principalmente filantrópicas, tem dificultado a análise da cobertura dos custos pelo repasse do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) aos procedimentos realizados. Objetivo: Identificar a percentagem de cobertura do repasse de verba do SUS para a cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica (CRM), em um hospital filantrópico do município de São Paulo, que possui um sistema de custeio consolidado. Método: Estudo de abordagem quantitativa, transversal e descritiva. Utilizou-se um banco de dados com registro de CRM denominado REVASC, criado pela instituição em 2009 e de inclusão contínua. As informações para a pesquisa foram coletadas de 13 de março a 30 de setembro de 2012. A escolha do período foi devido ao início da inclusão de informações sobre custo e repasse do SUS. A população alvo foi de 1913 pacientes e amostra de 1362 (71,2%). Resultados: O custo total médio da internação por paciente foi de R$16.196,91. A média de repasse pelo SUS foi de R$6.992,91(48,66%), observando-se um déficit de 9.204,00 (51,34%). A média de idade foi de 61,4 anos e 69,9% eram do sexo masculino. A média do tempo de permanência hospitalar (TPH) foi de 11,23 dias, sendo 2,42 dias na terapia intensiva e 8,49 dias no pós-operatório. A maioria dos pacientes (69,5%) apresentou um TPH maior que sete dias, considerada prolongada pela instituição. Ao comparar o Grupo 1 (TPH7dias) e Grupo 2 (TPH>7dias), este apresentou custo, receita, diferença entre custo-receita e diferença percentual significativamente maiores que os pacientes do Grupo1. Ao associar o TPH com fatores de risco houve diferença apenas no Grupo 2 que apresentou maior idade, maior número de diabetes e de insuficiência renal crônica. Em relação às complicações pós-operatórias houve diferença em relação a transfusão sanguínea, fibrilação atrial, sangramento importante, pneumonia, insuficiência renal aguda, infarto agudo do miocárdio perioperatório, hemodiálise, acidente vascular encefálico, ventilação mecânica prolongada e reoperação por sangramento / mediastinite, também com incidência maior no Grupo2. Conclusão: O repasse do SUS cobriu menos da metade do custo total médio da internação em CRM (48,66%). Embora o valor do repasse do SUS tenha aumentado conforme a elevação do custo, esse ressarcimento foi desproporcional ao custo total, resultando numa diferença percentual de receita cada vez mais negativa a cada aumento do custo e da permanência hospitalar. / Introduction: The lack of structured expense systems in hospital organizations, especially when philanthropic, has hindered the analysis of the coverage of costs by transfer of funds from the Unified Healthcare System (SUS) for the procedures performed. Objective: To identify the percentage of coverage of the transfer of funds from SUS for coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) in a philanthropic hospital that has a consolidated expense system in the municipality of São Paulo. Method: A quantitative, cross-sectional, and descriptive study. A databank containing data with CABG records called REVASC was used, created by the institution in 2009 with ongoing data inclusion. Information for the research was collected from March 13 to September 30, 2012. The choice of that period was due to the start of inclusion of information on costs and the transfer of funds from SUS. The target population was made up of 1913 patients and a sample of 1362 (71.2%). Results: The total mean cost of hospitalization per patient was R$16,196.91. The mean transfer of funds by SUS was R$6,992.91 (48.66%), with a deficit of 9,204.00 (51.34%). The mean age of the subjects was 61.4 years, and 69.9% of them were men. The mean hospital stay (HS) was 11.23 days, in which 2.42 days were in intensive therapy, and 8.49 days in the postoperative unit. Most of the patients (69.5%) had a HS longer than seven days, considered prolonged by the institution. When comparing Group 1 (HS 7 days) and Group 2 (HS >7 days), the latter group showed costs, revenue, difference between cost and revenue, and percentage difference significantly greater than did the patients from Group 1. In associating the HS with risk factors, there was a greater difference only in Group 2, which showed a higher age, and greater number individuals with diabetes and chronic renal failure. As to postoperative complications, there was a difference as to blood transfusion, atrial fibrillation, significant bleeding, pneumonia, acute renal failure, perioperative acute myocardial infarct, hemodialysis, cerebrovascular accident, prolonged mechanical ventilation, and reoperation due to bleeding/mediastinitis, also with an incidence greater than in Group 2. Conclusion: The financial provision from SUS covered less than half the total mean cost of hospitalization for CABG (48.66%). Although the value transferred from SUS increased according to cost elevation, this reimbursement was disproportional to the total cost, resulting in an increasingly negative percentage difference of revenue for each increase in cost and in hospital stay.
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Cobertura do custo da cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica pelo repasse do Sistema Único de Saúde em uma instituição filantrópica / Coverage of the costs of coronary artery bypass surgery by the transfer of funds from the Unified Public Health System [Sistema Único de Saúde] in a philanthropic institutionGilmara Silveira da Silva 28 June 2016 (has links)
Introdução: A falta de sistemas estruturados de custeio nas organizações hospitalares, principalmente filantrópicas, tem dificultado a análise da cobertura dos custos pelo repasse do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) aos procedimentos realizados. Objetivo: Identificar a percentagem de cobertura do repasse de verba do SUS para a cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica (CRM), em um hospital filantrópico do município de São Paulo, que possui um sistema de custeio consolidado. Método: Estudo de abordagem quantitativa, transversal e descritiva. Utilizou-se um banco de dados com registro de CRM denominado REVASC, criado pela instituição em 2009 e de inclusão contínua. As informações para a pesquisa foram coletadas de 13 de março a 30 de setembro de 2012. A escolha do período foi devido ao início da inclusão de informações sobre custo e repasse do SUS. A população alvo foi de 1913 pacientes e amostra de 1362 (71,2%). Resultados: O custo total médio da internação por paciente foi de R$16.196,91. A média de repasse pelo SUS foi de R$6.992,91(48,66%), observando-se um déficit de 9.204,00 (51,34%). A média de idade foi de 61,4 anos e 69,9% eram do sexo masculino. A média do tempo de permanência hospitalar (TPH) foi de 11,23 dias, sendo 2,42 dias na terapia intensiva e 8,49 dias no pós-operatório. A maioria dos pacientes (69,5%) apresentou um TPH maior que sete dias, considerada prolongada pela instituição. Ao comparar o Grupo 1 (TPH7dias) e Grupo 2 (TPH>7dias), este apresentou custo, receita, diferença entre custo-receita e diferença percentual significativamente maiores que os pacientes do Grupo1. Ao associar o TPH com fatores de risco houve diferença apenas no Grupo 2 que apresentou maior idade, maior número de diabetes e de insuficiência renal crônica. Em relação às complicações pós-operatórias houve diferença em relação a transfusão sanguínea, fibrilação atrial, sangramento importante, pneumonia, insuficiência renal aguda, infarto agudo do miocárdio perioperatório, hemodiálise, acidente vascular encefálico, ventilação mecânica prolongada e reoperação por sangramento / mediastinite, também com incidência maior no Grupo2. Conclusão: O repasse do SUS cobriu menos da metade do custo total médio da internação em CRM (48,66%). Embora o valor do repasse do SUS tenha aumentado conforme a elevação do custo, esse ressarcimento foi desproporcional ao custo total, resultando numa diferença percentual de receita cada vez mais negativa a cada aumento do custo e da permanência hospitalar. / Introduction: The lack of structured expense systems in hospital organizations, especially when philanthropic, has hindered the analysis of the coverage of costs by transfer of funds from the Unified Healthcare System (SUS) for the procedures performed. Objective: To identify the percentage of coverage of the transfer of funds from SUS for coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) in a philanthropic hospital that has a consolidated expense system in the municipality of São Paulo. Method: A quantitative, cross-sectional, and descriptive study. A databank containing data with CABG records called REVASC was used, created by the institution in 2009 with ongoing data inclusion. Information for the research was collected from March 13 to September 30, 2012. The choice of that period was due to the start of inclusion of information on costs and the transfer of funds from SUS. The target population was made up of 1913 patients and a sample of 1362 (71.2%). Results: The total mean cost of hospitalization per patient was R$16,196.91. The mean transfer of funds by SUS was R$6,992.91 (48.66%), with a deficit of 9,204.00 (51.34%). The mean age of the subjects was 61.4 years, and 69.9% of them were men. The mean hospital stay (HS) was 11.23 days, in which 2.42 days were in intensive therapy, and 8.49 days in the postoperative unit. Most of the patients (69.5%) had a HS longer than seven days, considered prolonged by the institution. When comparing Group 1 (HS 7 days) and Group 2 (HS >7 days), the latter group showed costs, revenue, difference between cost and revenue, and percentage difference significantly greater than did the patients from Group 1. In associating the HS with risk factors, there was a greater difference only in Group 2, which showed a higher age, and greater number individuals with diabetes and chronic renal failure. As to postoperative complications, there was a difference as to blood transfusion, atrial fibrillation, significant bleeding, pneumonia, acute renal failure, perioperative acute myocardial infarct, hemodialysis, cerebrovascular accident, prolonged mechanical ventilation, and reoperation due to bleeding/mediastinitis, also with an incidence greater than in Group 2. Conclusion: The financial provision from SUS covered less than half the total mean cost of hospitalization for CABG (48.66%). Although the value transferred from SUS increased according to cost elevation, this reimbursement was disproportional to the total cost, resulting in an increasingly negative percentage difference of revenue for each increase in cost and in hospital stay.
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Teoretické a metodické přístupy k určování makroekonomického přínosu primární prevence a podpory zdraví / Theoretical and methodological approaches to determining the macroeconomic contribution of primary prevention and health promotionVoleman, Jakub January 2015 (has links)
Health is one of the most important things in human life and it also deeply affects its quality. Health prevention and promotion is fundamental both for individuals and the whole society. This thesis analyses the economic approaches to health prevention and promotion. The main aim of this thesis is the analysis of health promotion with respect to colorectal cancer. However, this is not a standard effectiveness analysis but the analysis of the future development in unique Czech environment. According to Czech demographic trends and based on incidence and mortality predictive ARIMA models for colorectal cancer, this work quantifies the increasing costs related to this disease treatment in 2024 and 2028. Also, it makes recommendations on possible spending on possible prevention related to this disease.
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Streamlining Hospital Administrative Procedures to Reduce CostsOnukogu, Dr. Claret 01 January 2018 (has links)
Americans spent nearly $2.6 trillion, or $8,000 per person for medical and administrative costs in 2010. By 2015, healthcare spending in the United States increased to 5.8% reaching $3.2 trillion or $9,990 per individual. By tackling healthcare administrative costs, it is estimated that healthcare providers could reduce these costs by $20 billion yearly. This case study explored strategies for streamlining hospital administrative procedures to reduce costs. The business process reengineering model formed the conceptual framework for this study. Data were gathered through semistructured face-to-face interviews guided by open-ended questions with a purposeful sample of 4 hospital managers in Atlanta, Georgia. This study identifies important themes regarding cost reduction and hospital administration based on participant interviews. Themes included participants' unfavorable perspectives of the Spell out PPACA (PPACA) legislation, employment of physicians, PPACA reimbursement method, follow-up services, hospital administrative governance, and lack of business education. The themes comprised steps hospital managers could take to streamline administrative procedures to reduce costs. The implications for positive social change included the potential to provide strategies for streamlined processes that could lead to savings passed on to patients from low socio-economic backgrounds through accessibility to affordable healthcare services.
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Évaluation des coûts de traitement de la tyrosinémie de type ISimoncelli, Mariève 09 1900 (has links)
Réalisé dans le cadre d'un mandat de l'Unité d'évaluation des technologies et des modes d'intervention en santé (UETMIS) du CHU Sainte-Justine / Introduction : La tyrosinémie de type I est une maladie génétique sévère. Elle se caractérise par des manifestations hépatiques, rénales et neurologiques. Depuis 1994, le NTBC représente la thérapie de première ligne. Ce médicament a conduit à une
amélioration radicale de la morbidité et du pronostic de la maladie.
Objectif : Évaluer les coûts directs des soins de santé reliés au traitement de cette
maladie. Cette évaluation économique a été effectuée en trois groupes dont, un groupe
historique de patients non traités; un groupe traitement tardif et un groupe traitement précoce par NTBC.
Méthode : L’analyse coûts-conséquences inclut les coûts des hospitalisations, des
services médicaux et des thérapies associées. Les données proviennent des banques de la RAMQ, de Med-Echo et des dossiers hospitaliers.
Résultats : Le NTBC est associé à une réduction significative des hospitalisations, des séjours aux soins intensifs et des greffes hépatiques. Les coûts hospitaliers sont significativement moindres pour les groupes traités (13 979 $, 6 347 $ et 673 $ par année-patient pour les groupes historique, traitement tardif et traitement précoce,respectivement; valeur p < 0,0001). Les coûts des hospitalisations pour greffes par année-patient sont de 4 676$ pour le groupe historique et de 3 567 $ pour le groupe traitement tardif. Les coûts du NTBC par année-patient sont de 66 965 $ et de 51 493 $ pour les groupes traitement tardif et traitement précoce, respectivement.
Conclusion : Les résultats démontrent l’impact majeur du NTBC sur la réduction de
l’utilisation des ressources de santé, des greffes hépatiques et des coûts associés. / Introduction : Tyrosinemia type I is a severe genetic disorder. Symptoms include hepatic,renal and neurological manifestations. NTBC became the first-line therapy in 1994. This drug has led to a drastic improvement in the prognosis.
Objective : To evaluate direct medical costs of healthcare services related to the treatment for this disease. This economic evaluation was conducted among the 3 following groups: an historical group of untreated patients, a late-treatment group and an early-treatment group with NTBC.
Methods : The costs-consequences analysis includes costs incurred by hospitalizations,
medical services and related treatments. Data are derived from the RAMQ and Med-Echo
administrative databases and patients’ hospital charts.
Results : NTBC treatment is associated with a significant reduction in hospitalizations,
intensive care unit stays and liver transplantations. The cost of hospitalizations is significantly less for both treated groups (13,979 $, 6,347 $ and 673 $ per year-patient for the historical group, the late-treatment and the early-treatment group, respectively; pvalue<
0,0001). The cost of hospitalizations for liver transplantations per year-patient is
4,676 $ for the historical group and 3,567 $ for the late-treatment group. The cost of
NTBC per year-patient is 66,965$ and 51,493$ for the late-treatment and the earlytreatment
groups, respectively.
Conclusion : These results demonstrate that NTBC treatment results in a major reduction
in healthcare resources utilization, liver transplantations and associated costs.
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Évaluation des coûts de traitement de la tyrosinémie de type ISimoncelli, Mariève 09 1900 (has links)
Introduction : La tyrosinémie de type I est une maladie génétique sévère. Elle se caractérise par des manifestations hépatiques, rénales et neurologiques. Depuis 1994, le NTBC représente la thérapie de première ligne. Ce médicament a conduit à une
amélioration radicale de la morbidité et du pronostic de la maladie.
Objectif : Évaluer les coûts directs des soins de santé reliés au traitement de cette
maladie. Cette évaluation économique a été effectuée en trois groupes dont, un groupe
historique de patients non traités; un groupe traitement tardif et un groupe traitement précoce par NTBC.
Méthode : L’analyse coûts-conséquences inclut les coûts des hospitalisations, des
services médicaux et des thérapies associées. Les données proviennent des banques de la RAMQ, de Med-Echo et des dossiers hospitaliers.
Résultats : Le NTBC est associé à une réduction significative des hospitalisations, des séjours aux soins intensifs et des greffes hépatiques. Les coûts hospitaliers sont significativement moindres pour les groupes traités (13 979 $, 6 347 $ et 673 $ par année-patient pour les groupes historique, traitement tardif et traitement précoce,respectivement; valeur p < 0,0001). Les coûts des hospitalisations pour greffes par année-patient sont de 4 676$ pour le groupe historique et de 3 567 $ pour le groupe traitement tardif. Les coûts du NTBC par année-patient sont de 66 965 $ et de 51 493 $ pour les groupes traitement tardif et traitement précoce, respectivement.
Conclusion : Les résultats démontrent l’impact majeur du NTBC sur la réduction de
l’utilisation des ressources de santé, des greffes hépatiques et des coûts associés. / Introduction : Tyrosinemia type I is a severe genetic disorder. Symptoms include hepatic,renal and neurological manifestations. NTBC became the first-line therapy in 1994. This drug has led to a drastic improvement in the prognosis.
Objective : To evaluate direct medical costs of healthcare services related to the treatment for this disease. This economic evaluation was conducted among the 3 following groups: an historical group of untreated patients, a late-treatment group and an early-treatment group with NTBC.
Methods : The costs-consequences analysis includes costs incurred by hospitalizations,
medical services and related treatments. Data are derived from the RAMQ and Med-Echo
administrative databases and patients’ hospital charts.
Results : NTBC treatment is associated with a significant reduction in hospitalizations,
intensive care unit stays and liver transplantations. The cost of hospitalizations is significantly less for both treated groups (13,979 $, 6,347 $ and 673 $ per year-patient for the historical group, the late-treatment and the early-treatment group, respectively; pvalue<
0,0001). The cost of hospitalizations for liver transplantations per year-patient is
4,676 $ for the historical group and 3,567 $ for the late-treatment group. The cost of
NTBC per year-patient is 66,965$ and 51,493$ for the late-treatment and the earlytreatment
groups, respectively.
Conclusion : These results demonstrate that NTBC treatment results in a major reduction
in healthcare resources utilization, liver transplantations and associated costs. / Réalisé dans le cadre d'un mandat de l'Unité d'évaluation des technologies et des modes d'intervention en santé (UETMIS) du CHU Sainte-Justine
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What have we learned from the economic impact of the Covid-19 outbreak? Critical analysis of economic factors and recommendations for the futureMarco Franco, Julio Emilio 18 October 2021 (has links)
Tesis por compendio / [ES] El brote de Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 representó un reto para la economía, la vida social y los servicios sanitarios. Justo cuando más se necesitaba la información para la planificación económica, los servicios de vigilancia y notificación no fueron capaces de ofrecer, a pesar de esfuerzos extraordinarios, datos consistentes, como así reconocieron los propios orga-nismos gubernamentales.
Esta tesis incluye tres artículos publicados durante los brotes de COVID-19 y una investi-gación adicional fuera del conjunto de publicaciones. La investigación tiene como objetivo general proporcionar información a través de estimaciones alternativas. Para ello se han utilizado varias metodologías, entre ellas los modelos matemáticos de predicción epidemio-lógica, el Mejor Ajuste de Valores Relacionados (BARV), los análisis de diferentes encues-tas y la metodología bibliométrica, aprovechando u ofreciendo alternativas a los métodos bayesianos más complejos, las simulaciones de Monte Carlo o las cadenas de Markov, aun-que algunos datos obtenidos se apoyan parcialmente en estas metodologías. Cada artículo aborda un tema esencial relacionado con la pandemia COVID-19.
La primera publicación se centra en los datos epidemiológicos básicos. Se refiere al primer brote de COVID-19, estimando su duración, incidencia, prevalencia, tasa de fallecimientos sobre infectados (IFR) y tasa de fallecimientos sobre casos (confirmados) (CFR). Como dato destacado de este trabajo, se previó que la seroprevalencia era demasiado baja para que la inmunidad de rebaño desempeñara algún papel. Aunque el valor obtenido fue aproxima-damente un 2% inferior al que demostró posteriormente un estudio poblacional (Instituto Carlos III), la conclusión sobre la inmunidad de rebaño no cambió, y los resultados confir-maron la idoneidad del enfoque.
La segunda publicación se centró en las cuestiones legales y las noticias falsas, analizando la reticencia de la población a vacunarse, el impacto de las falsas noticas en estos comporta-mientos, las posibilidades legales de hacer obligatoria la vacuna y las posibles acciones contra los profesionales de la salud que publican noticias falsas. La principal conclusión fue que, aunque se podría encontrar una vía legal para la obligatoriedad de la vacunación, y para la persecución gubernamental de las noticias falsas, la opinión ciudadana parece prefe-rir que la administración no tome la iniciativa, por lo que se recomienda promover y fomen-tar la concienciación ciudadana.
La tercera publicación presentó un modelo matemático simplificado para la estimación del coste-efectividad de la vacuna contra la COVID-19. Se actualizan los datos de dos fechas para la estimación de los costes directos para el sistema sanitario debidos a la COVID-19, computando el coste por ciudadano y por Producto Interior Bruto (PIB), así como el coste-efectividad de la vacuna. La estimó razón de coste-efectividad incremental (RCEI) para dos dosis por persona a un coste de 30 euros cada dosis (incluida la administración). Asumien-do al 70% de efectividad y con el 70% de la población vacunada resultó ser de 5.132 euros (4.926 - 5.276) por año de vida ajustado a calidad (AVAC) ganado (a 17 de febrero de 2021). Una cifra que desciende cada día de pandemia activa.
Se incluyó una investigación adicional, no incorporada en el conjunto de artículos, centrada en los recursos humanos y la educación. Se analizaron los temas preocupan al personal de primera línea, es decir, a la enfermería, y cómo la pandemia ha afectado a sus publicaciones científicas, como índice de los cambios en el clima laboral que sufre este colectivo. Median-te un estudio bibliométrico comparativo entre las publicaciones de 2019 y 2020, se analizó el cambio de temas y ámbitos como reflejo del impacto del COVID-19 en el personal de enfermería. Así se comprobó que, en los ámbitos de enfermería de atención especializada, y sobre todo e / [CA] El brot de Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 va representar un repte per a l'economia, la vida soci-al i els serveis sanitaris. Quan més es necessitava la informació per a la planificació econò-mica, malgrat esforços extraordinaris, els serveis de vigilància i notificació no van ser capa-ços d'oferir dades consistents, com així van reconèixer els mateixos organismes governa-mentals.
Aquesta tesi inclou tres articles publicats durant els brots de COVID-19 i una investigació addicional fora del conjunt de publicacions. La investigació té com a objectiu general pro-porcionar informació a través d'estimacions alternatives. Per a això s'han utilitzat diverses metodologies, entre elles els models matemàtics de predicció epidemiològica, el Millor Ajust de Valors Relacionats (BARV), les anàlisis de diferents enquestes i la metodologia bibliomètrica, aprofitant o oferint opcions alternatives als mètodes bayesians més comple-xos, les simulacions de Montecarlo o les cadenes de Markov, tot i que algunes dades obtin-gudes es recolzen parcialment en aquestes metodologies. Cada article aborda un tema essen-cial relacionat amb la pandèmia COVID-19.
La primera publicació se centra en les dades epidemiològiques bàsiques. Es refereix al pri-mer brot de COVID-19, calculant la seua durada, incidència, prevalença, taxa de defuncions sobre infectats (IFR) i taxa de defuncions sobre casos (confirmats) (CFR). Com a dada des-tacada d'aquest treball, es va preveure que la seroprevalença era massa baixa perquè la im-munitat de ramat exercirà algun paper. Tot i que el valor obtingut va ser aproximadament un 2% inferior al demostrat posteriorment en un estudi poblacional (Institut Carles III), la conclusió sobre la immunitat de ramat no va canviar, i els resultats van confirmar la idoneï-tat de l'enfocament.
La segona publicació es va centrar en les qüestions legals i les notícies falses, analitzant la reticència de la població a vacunar-se, l'impacte de les falses notícies en aquests comporta-ments, les possibilitats legals de fer obligatòria la vacuna i les possibles accions contra els professionals de la salut que publiquen notícies falses. La principal conclusió va ser que, tot i que es podria trobar una via legal per l'obligatorietat de la vacunació, i per la persecució governamental de les notícies falses, l'opinió ciutadana sembla preferir que l'administració no prenga la iniciativa, per la qual cosa es recomana promoure i fomentar la conscienciació ciutadana.
La tercera publicació va presentar un model matemàtic simplificat per a l'estimació del cost-efectivitat de la vacuna contra la COVID-19. S'actualitzen les dades de dues dates per a l'estimació dels costos directes per al sistema sanitari deguts a la COVID-19, computant el cost per ciutadà i per Producte Interior Brut (PIB), així com el cost-efectivitat de la vacuna. La va estimar raó de cost-efectivitat incremental (RCEI) per dues dosis per persona a un cost de 30 euros cada dosi (inclosa l'administració). Assumint al 70% d'efectivitat i amb el 70% de la població vacunada va resultar ser de 5.132 euros (4.926 - 5.276) per any de vida ajustat a qualitat (AVAQ) (a 17 de febrer de 2021). Una xifra que descendeix cada dia de pandèmia activa.
Es va afegir una investigació addicional, no inclosa en el conjunt d'articles, centrada en els recursos humans i l'educació. Es van analitzar els temes que preocupen al personal de pri-mera línia, és a dir, a la infermeria, i com la pandèmia ha afectat les seues publicacions cien-tífiques, com a índex dels canvis en el clima laboral que pateix aquest col·lectiu. Mitjançant un estudi bibliomètric comparatiu entre les publicacions de 2019 i 2020, es va analitzar el canvi de temes i camps com a reflex de l'impacte del COVID-19 en el personal d'infermeria. Així es va comprovar que en els àmbits d'infermeria d'atenció especialitzada, i sobretot en atenció primària, els principals problemes detectat / [EN] The SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus outbreak has posed a challenge to the economy, social life, and health services. Just when information was most needed for economic planning, moni-toring, and reporting services were unable, despite extraordinary efforts to provide con-sistent data, as government agencies themselves acknowledged.
This thesis includes three articles published during the COVID-19 outbreaks and additional research outside the publication set. The overall aim of the research is to provide infor-mation through alternative estimates. Several methodologies have been used, including mathematical models for epidemiological prediction, Best Adjustment of Related Values (BARV), analyses of different surveys and bibliometric methodology, taking advantage of or offering an alternative to, more complex options such as Bayesian methods, Monte Carlo simulations or Markov chains, although some data obtained are partially supported by these methodologies. Each article addresses a key issue related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The first publication focuses on basic epidemiological data. It refers to the first outbreak of COVID-19, estimating its duration, incidence, prevalence, Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and Case Fatality Rate (CFR). As a highlight of this work, the seroprevalence was anticipated to be too low for herd immunity to play a role. Although the value obtained was approximate-ly 2% lower than that subsequently demonstrated by a population-based study (Instituto Carlos III), the conclusion on herd immunity remained unchanged, and the results con-firmed the appropriateness of the approach.
The second publication focuses on legal issues and fake news, analysing reluctance to be vaccinated in the population, the impact of fake news on these behaviours, the legal possi-bilities of making vaccination mandatory, and possible actions against health professionals who publish fake news. The main conclusion was that, although a legal avenue could be found for mandatory vaccination and for governmental prosecution of fake news, public opinion seems to prefer that the authorities do not take the initiative, therefore it recom-mends promoting and encouraging public awareness.
The third publication presented a simplified mathematical model for estimating the cost-effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine. Data from two dates were obtained for the estimation of the direct costs to the health system due to COVID-19, computing the cost per citizen and per Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as well as the cost-effectiveness of the vaccine. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated for two doses per person at a cost of 30 euros per dose (including administration). Assuming 70% effectiveness and with 70% of the population vaccinated, it was found to be 5,132 euros (4,926 - 5,276) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained (as of 17 February 2021). The figure decreases with each day of the active pandemic.
Additional research not included in the set of articles focuses on human resources and education. It analyses the concerns of frontline staff, i.e., nurses, and how the pandemic has affected their scientific publications, as an index of the changes in the work climate experienced by this group. Through a comparative bibliometric study of publications in 2019 and 2020, the change in topics and fields was analysed, as a reflection of the impact of COVID-19 on nursing staff. It was found that in the fields of specialised care nursing and above all in primary care, the main problems detected are those related to protective measures and psychological factors, while the publications of nursing staff in nursing homes showed an increase in topics related to management and organisation.
Finally, some aspects of the implementation of telecommuting and distance learning have been reviewed. Some of the boosts in this field resulting from the pandemic could be very useful and remain in the future, such as the incorporation of telewo / Marco Franco, JE. (2021). What have we learned from the economic impact of the Covid-19 outbreak? Critical analysis of economic factors and recommendations for the future [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/174883 / Compendio
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