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The economics of Ireland's property market bubbleLyons, Ronan C. January 2013 (has links)
This doctorate explores key aspects of the economics of housing by examining Ireland's housing market bubble of the early 2000s. For earlier chapters, the main source material is a previously unused dataset of almost two million property listings, covering the entire country from 2006 until 2012, maintained by property website daft.ie. An initial chapter outlines stylised facts of Ireland's housing market 2007-2012, including a greater spread of prices over property size in the crash but a narrower spread of rents. In contrast, the geographical spread of prices and rents was largely unchanged. The spread of rents was constrained relative to the spread of prices, suggesting either renter search thresholds or buyer "lock-in" effects. To examine which was at work, the daft.ie dataset is combined with information on a range of amenities, including landscape, transport, education, social capital and market depth. Overall, there is clear evidence that the rent effects of a range of amenities are smaller than the price effects. There is limited evidence of procyclical amenity pricing, which would indicate "lock-in" effects, with the analysis suggesting instead countercyclical pricing, or "property ladder" effects during the bubble. Results from these analyses are based on listed price and rents, rather than transaction prices. The relationship between the two is examined in a separate chapter, using an additional Central Bank of Ireland dataset on mortgages. The spread between list and sale prices gap that exists between the two is decomposed into four parts, a selection spread, a matching spread, a counteroffer spread and a drawdown spread. A selection spread of up to 10% emerged in the Irish housing market after 2009, while the counteroffer spread was positive before 2009 but negative for much of the period 2009-2011. The final chapter uses both inverted-demand and price-rent ratio methods to examine the long-run determinants of house prices in Ireland from 1980 on. In addition to careful treatment of standard fundamentals, it includes a measure of credit conditions as well as the ratio of persons to households, both contributions to the literature. The resulting inverted demand error-correction model shows a clear and stable long-run relationship, which is largely preserved when cointegration between series is explored. Similarly, a model of the price-rent ratio from 2000 shows clear error-correction properties. Together, they suggest that while a range of factors drove Irish house prices 1995-2001, credit conditions were largely responsible for the subsequent increase.
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Between a Rock and a Hard Place : Navigating the Housing Pathways of Newcomers in IrelandConnaughton, Mark January 2021 (has links)
This thesis presents research into the housing pathways of newcomers in Ireland who receive status to remain in the country and come through the Irish direct provision reception system. In the global context of financialisation of housing and local context of state reliance on the private market to provide housing to all sections of society, cities in Ireland are experiencing severe housing crises like many other cities across the globe, characterised by shortage, increasing rents and persistent homelessness rates. Meanwhile, in response to increased migration and heightened border anxieties, Ireland has sought to deter forced migrants, in this case with dispersed and unattractive direct provision reception centres. What happens then to newcomers with status to remain in Ireland, an already particularly vulnerable group in the housing system, when they have to enter this system in crisis after year-long stays in dispersed reception centres? This thesis addresses this question, looking at the specific effects of the Irish housing regime, with its unique local and recognisable global characteristics, and Irish reception policy, with its particular direct provision system, on newcomers’ search for housing. For context, the historical development and current features of the Irish housing regime, as well as migration and reception policy are traced and outlined. The thesis then tracks previous literature from international and Irish settings that deals with the issue of housing for newcomers in the Global North, including the historical development of the field and its current trends. The research design makes use of a cross-sectional, mixed-method approach to achieve its objectives. Using a constructionist housing pathways framework of analysis, accompanied by important concepts from thinkers such as Lefebvre, Agamben and Bengtsson & Borevi, the research draws on a mixture of surveys and follow-up interviews to examine the constraints, structures, strategies and outcomes of households when they have been granted status to remain in Ireland and must leave reception centres and find their own housing. The research identifies identity and power as two crucial factors in the navigation of housing pathways for newcomers and shows the detrimental effect of the retreat of the state from housing provision and reliance on marketised social housing provision on the right to housing for this group. Finally, the thesis recommends potential future studies and the policy implications of the research, in light of the difficulties of finding housing through the HAP scheme reported in this research, urge caution for proposed further reliance on marketised social housing provision for newcomers.
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