Spelling suggestions: "subject:"hydrological simulation""
1 |
Avaliação do potencial de aplicação de técnicas compensatórias em áreas urbanas consolidadas / Assessment of application potential of compensatory techniques in consolidated urban areasMartins, Leandro Guimarães Bais 10 February 2017 (has links)
O desenvolvimento urbano altera significativamente o ciclo natural das bacias hidrográficas. Com o surgimento da drenagem urbana sustentável, o rápido escoamento das águas pluviais deu lugar à restituição das características naturais da bacia hidrográfica através do planejamento do desenvolvimento urbano aliado ao uso de técnicas compensatórias que promovem a infiltração e detenção de águas pluviais. Entretanto, em bacias urbanizadas, o uso das técnicas compensatórias tem alcance limitado, principalmente pelo alto grau de impermeabilização das bacias, pela falta de preocupação com a drenagem durante a expansão urbana, pela baixa disponibilidade de espaço e pelos altos custos de aplicação de medidas estruturais de drenagem urbana. Assim, os princípios de drenagem urbana sustentável são muitas vezes considerados inadequados a ambientes de urbanização consolidada. Desta forma, este trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar o desempenho do uso em conjunto de diversas técnicas compensatórias definidas através do desenvolvimento de mapas de adequabilidade de uma bacia hidrográfica urbana à aplicação das técnicas compensatórias e de simulação hidrológica. Foram avaliadas bacias de detenção, pavimentos permeáveis, jardins de chuva, telhados verdes, trincheiras de infiltração e microreservatórios individuais. O desempenho das técnicas compensatórias foi avaliado individualmente e trabalhando em conjunto. Mapas de adequabilidade foram criados para locação e quantificação das técnicas compensatórias na bacia hidrográfica. Os resultados mostraram que a aplicação extensiva de técnicas compensatórias em ambiente urbano pode provocar melhoras significativas na redução de vazão de pico e controle do volume de hidrogramas de cheia, com melhores desempenhos individuais de até 35,5% de redução de pico e 32,48% de redução de volume de hidrogramas (TR 2 anos) com o uso de trincheiras de infiltração e 12,77% de redução de vazão de pico e 9,57% de redução de volume (TR 100 anos) com o uso de telhados verdes. Simulando as técnicas compensatórias mais eficientes funcionando em conjunto, foram obtidas reduções de 59,00% de vazão de pico e 46,37% de redução de volume para precipitações de tempo de retorno de 2 anos e 25,66% de vazão de pico e 26,45% de redução de volume em precipitações de 100 anos de tempo de retorno. Assim, concluiu-se que a adaptação de regiões urbanizadas aos princípios da drenagem urbana sustentável é possível e eficiente, e bons resultados podem ser obtidos mesmo nos ambientes mais densamente ocupados. Entretanto, a falta de planejamento durante o desenvolvimento urbano e a pouca disponibilidade de espaço impede a otimização do arranjo espacial dos dispositivos e limita a eficiência de algumas técnicas compensatórias, principalmente aquelas de grande porte. / Urban development significantly alters the natural cycle of river basins. With the emergence of sustainable urban drainage, rapid stormwater runoff gave way to recovering the natural characteristics of the river basin through the urban development planning coupled with the use of compensatory techniques that promote the infiltration and detention of stormwater. However, in already urbanized basins, the use of compensatory techniques have limited reach, especially by the high impermeabilization of the basins, the lack of concern with drainage during urban sprawl, low space availability and high implementation costs of structural measures of urban drainage. Thus, the principles of sustainable urban drainage are often considered inadequate to consolidated urban environments. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the performance of the conjunction use of several compensatory techniques defined after developing suitability maps for the urban basin and hydrologic simulation. We evaluated detention basins, permeable pavements, rain gardens, green roofs, infiltration trenches and individuals cisterns. We assessed the performance of compensatory techniques working individually and working together. Suitability maps were created for positioning and quantification of compensatory techniques in the watershed. The results showed that extensive application of compensatory techniques in an urban environment could lead to significant improvements in peak flow reduction and control of hydrograms volume, with best individual performance up to 35.5% peak reduction and 32.48% hydrograms volume reduction (TR 2 years) using infiltration trenches and 12.77% peak flow reduction and 9 57% volume reduction (TR 100 years) using green roofs. Simulating the most efficient compensatory techniques working together, the results shown 59.00% of peak flow reductions and 46.37% of volume reduction to 2-years rainfalls and 25.66% peak flow reduction and 26.45% of volume reduction in 100-years rainfalls. Thus, we concluded that the adaptation of urbanized areas to sustainable urban drainage principles is possible and efficient, and good results can be obtained even in the more densely occupied environments. However, the lack of planning for urban development and the limited space availability prevents the optimization of devices spatial arrangement and limits the effectiveness of certain compensatory techniques, especially those large as detention basins.
|
2 |
Zhodnocení různých protipovodňových opatření v povodí při extrémních srážko-odtokových situacích / Evaluation of various flood control in the catchment during extreme rainfall-runoff situationsPOMIJE, Tomáš January 2011 (has links)
The aim of this thesis is to clarify the impact various flood control in extreme rainfall-runoff situations in an interest basin. For this purpose, for the catchment of Kopaninsky river has been set up hydrological model in Mike SHE application. Also have been executed scenarios of different flood control, which passed through the simulation in model Mike SHE. The resulting data from simulations serve as a basis for evaluating the effectiveness and applicability of scenarios for the catchment.
|
3 |
Avaliação do potencial de aplicação de técnicas compensatórias em áreas urbanas consolidadas / Assessment of application potential of compensatory techniques in consolidated urban areasLeandro Guimarães Bais Martins 10 February 2017 (has links)
O desenvolvimento urbano altera significativamente o ciclo natural das bacias hidrográficas. Com o surgimento da drenagem urbana sustentável, o rápido escoamento das águas pluviais deu lugar à restituição das características naturais da bacia hidrográfica através do planejamento do desenvolvimento urbano aliado ao uso de técnicas compensatórias que promovem a infiltração e detenção de águas pluviais. Entretanto, em bacias urbanizadas, o uso das técnicas compensatórias tem alcance limitado, principalmente pelo alto grau de impermeabilização das bacias, pela falta de preocupação com a drenagem durante a expansão urbana, pela baixa disponibilidade de espaço e pelos altos custos de aplicação de medidas estruturais de drenagem urbana. Assim, os princípios de drenagem urbana sustentável são muitas vezes considerados inadequados a ambientes de urbanização consolidada. Desta forma, este trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar o desempenho do uso em conjunto de diversas técnicas compensatórias definidas através do desenvolvimento de mapas de adequabilidade de uma bacia hidrográfica urbana à aplicação das técnicas compensatórias e de simulação hidrológica. Foram avaliadas bacias de detenção, pavimentos permeáveis, jardins de chuva, telhados verdes, trincheiras de infiltração e microreservatórios individuais. O desempenho das técnicas compensatórias foi avaliado individualmente e trabalhando em conjunto. Mapas de adequabilidade foram criados para locação e quantificação das técnicas compensatórias na bacia hidrográfica. Os resultados mostraram que a aplicação extensiva de técnicas compensatórias em ambiente urbano pode provocar melhoras significativas na redução de vazão de pico e controle do volume de hidrogramas de cheia, com melhores desempenhos individuais de até 35,5% de redução de pico e 32,48% de redução de volume de hidrogramas (TR 2 anos) com o uso de trincheiras de infiltração e 12,77% de redução de vazão de pico e 9,57% de redução de volume (TR 100 anos) com o uso de telhados verdes. Simulando as técnicas compensatórias mais eficientes funcionando em conjunto, foram obtidas reduções de 59,00% de vazão de pico e 46,37% de redução de volume para precipitações de tempo de retorno de 2 anos e 25,66% de vazão de pico e 26,45% de redução de volume em precipitações de 100 anos de tempo de retorno. Assim, concluiu-se que a adaptação de regiões urbanizadas aos princípios da drenagem urbana sustentável é possível e eficiente, e bons resultados podem ser obtidos mesmo nos ambientes mais densamente ocupados. Entretanto, a falta de planejamento durante o desenvolvimento urbano e a pouca disponibilidade de espaço impede a otimização do arranjo espacial dos dispositivos e limita a eficiência de algumas técnicas compensatórias, principalmente aquelas de grande porte. / Urban development significantly alters the natural cycle of river basins. With the emergence of sustainable urban drainage, rapid stormwater runoff gave way to recovering the natural characteristics of the river basin through the urban development planning coupled with the use of compensatory techniques that promote the infiltration and detention of stormwater. However, in already urbanized basins, the use of compensatory techniques have limited reach, especially by the high impermeabilization of the basins, the lack of concern with drainage during urban sprawl, low space availability and high implementation costs of structural measures of urban drainage. Thus, the principles of sustainable urban drainage are often considered inadequate to consolidated urban environments. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the performance of the conjunction use of several compensatory techniques defined after developing suitability maps for the urban basin and hydrologic simulation. We evaluated detention basins, permeable pavements, rain gardens, green roofs, infiltration trenches and individuals cisterns. We assessed the performance of compensatory techniques working individually and working together. Suitability maps were created for positioning and quantification of compensatory techniques in the watershed. The results showed that extensive application of compensatory techniques in an urban environment could lead to significant improvements in peak flow reduction and control of hydrograms volume, with best individual performance up to 35.5% peak reduction and 32.48% hydrograms volume reduction (TR 2 years) using infiltration trenches and 12.77% peak flow reduction and 9 57% volume reduction (TR 100 years) using green roofs. Simulating the most efficient compensatory techniques working together, the results shown 59.00% of peak flow reductions and 46.37% of volume reduction to 2-years rainfalls and 25.66% peak flow reduction and 26.45% of volume reduction in 100-years rainfalls. Thus, we concluded that the adaptation of urbanized areas to sustainable urban drainage principles is possible and efficient, and good results can be obtained even in the more densely occupied environments. However, the lack of planning for urban development and the limited space availability prevents the optimization of devices spatial arrangement and limits the effectiveness of certain compensatory techniques, especially those large as detention basins.
|
4 |
Hydrologic calibration of the Cub Run Watershed using the PC version of the Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF)Vilariño, Daniel R. 25 August 2008 (has links)
The Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) in its personal computer version, release 10.10, was used to perform the hydrological simulation of a sub-watershed of the Occoquan River drainage basin. The sub-watershed selected was the Cub Run Watershed located in the northern area of the Occoquan River catchment. A model in the form of a User Control Input (UCI) file was prepared. The Cub Run Watershed was analyzed considering its geological, edaphic and weather characteristics, and segmented accordingly. The model was calibrated to adjust simulated results to observed data. Several calibration runs were executed and a final run was done considering a further segmented watershed. The simulation results were good even when not all the desired data could be found. The annual percent difference between the best calibration run and the observed results was 21.28%. The ten-month percent difference, excluding June and July, was 5.82 %. The first value is a fair result for hydrologic calibration, the second value is an excellent result for the same type of calibration. Additional segmentation did not further improve the results obtained during the best calibration run. Differences in the calibration when considering just a pervious segment or two segments (one pervious and one impervious) could be noted, indicating the importance of considering impervious surfaces for the simulation. HSPF reacted quite logically to variations in the calibration parameters and the results from those variations could be predicted beforehand. In summary, the PC version of HSPF was demonstrated to be a good management tool for the hydrological simulation of this watershed. / Master of Science
|
5 |
Sustainable Water Allocation in Umarkhed Taluka through Optimization of Reservoir Operation in the Wardha Sub-basin, IndiaHaidar, Md Atif Ibne 10 September 2021 (has links)
No description available.
|
6 |
Development of a distributed water quality model using advanced hydrologic simulationJanuary 2012 (has links)
Cypress Creek is an urbanizing watershed in the Gulf Coast region of Texas that contributes the largest inflow of urban runoff containing suspended solids to Lake Houston, the primary source of drinking water for the City of Houston. Historical water quality data was statistically analyzed to characterize the watershed and its pollutant sources. It was determined that the current sampling program provides limited information on the complex behaviors of pollutant sources in both dry weather and rainfall events. In order to further investigate the dynamics of pollutant export from Cypress Creek to Lake Houston, fully distributed hydrologic and water quality models were developed and employed to simulate high frequency small storms. A fully distributed hydrologic model, Vflo(TM) , was used to model streamflow during small storm events in Cypress Creek. Accurately modeling small rainfall events, which have traditionally been difficult to model, is necessary for investigation and design of watershed management since small storms occur more frequently. An assessment of the model for multiple storms shows that using radar rainfall input produces results well matched to the observed streamflow for both volume and peak streamflow. Building on the accuracy and utility of distributed hydrologic modeling, a water quality model was developed to simulate buildup, washoff, and advective transport of a conservative pollutant. Coupled with the physically based Vflo(TM) hydrologic model, the pollutant transport model was used to simulate the washoff and transport of total suspended solids for multiple small storm events in Cypress Creek Watershed. The output of this distributed buildup and washoff model was compared to storm water quality sampling in order to assess the performance of the model and to further temporally and spatially characterize the storm events. This effort was the first step towards developing a fully distributed water quality model that can be widely applied to a wide variety of watersheds. It provides the framework for future incorporation of more sophisticated pollutant dynamics and spatially explicit evaluation of best management practices and land use dynamics. This provides an important tool and decision aid for watershed and resource management and thus efficient protection of the sources waters.
|
7 |
Improvement in Convective Precipitation and Land Surface Prediction over Complex TerrainJanuary 2016 (has links)
abstract: Land surface fluxes of energy and mass developed over heterogeneous mountain landscapes are fundamental to atmospheric processes. However, due to their high complexity and the lack of spatial observations, land surface processes and land-atmosphere interactions are not fully understood in mountain regions. This thesis investigates land surface processes and their impact on convective precipitation by conducting numerical modeling experiments at multiple scales over the North American Monsoon (NAM) region. Specifically, the following scientific questions are addressed: (1) how do land surface conditions evolve during the monsoon season, and what are their main controls?, (2) how do the diurnal cycles of surface energy fluxes vary during the monsoon season for the major ecosystems?, and (3) what are the impacts of surface soil moisture and vegetation condition on convective precipitation?
Hydrologic simulation using the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) is firstly carried out to examine the seasonal evolution of land surface conditions. Results reveal that the spatial heterogeneity of land surface temperature and soil moisture increases dramatically with the onset of monsoon, which is related to seasonal changes in topographic and vegetation controls. Similar results are found at regional basin scale using the uncoupled WRF-Hydro model. Meanwhile, the diurnal cycles of surface energy fluxes show large variation between the major ecosystems. Differences in both the peak magnitude and peak timing of plant transpiration induce mesoscale heterogeneity in land surface conditions. Lastly, this dissertation examines the upscale effect of land surface heterogeneity on atmospheric condition through fully-coupled WRF-Hydro simulations. A series of process-based experiments were conducted to identify the pathways of soil moisture-rainfall feedback mechanism over the NAM region. While modeling experiments confirm the existence of positive soil moisture/vegetation-rainfall feedback, their exact pathways are slightly different. Interactions between soil moisture, vegetation cover, and rainfall through a series of land surface and atmospheric boundary layer processes highlight the strong land-atmosphere coupling in the NAM region, and have important implications on convective rainfall prediction. Overall, this dissertation advances the study of complex land surface processes over the NAM region, and made important contributions in linking complex hydrologic, ecologic and atmospheric processes through numerical modeling. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Civil and Environmental Engineering 2016
|
8 |
Influência da precipitação no uso do método silveira para bacias hidrográficas entre 800 a 1000 km² / Influence of precipitation in the use of the silveira method for river basin between 800 and 1000 km²Friedrich, Marciano 26 January 2017 (has links)
The increasing demand for water resources, for the most diverse purposes, has evidenced a still deficient scenario in relation to fluviometric monitoring, especially in river basins with areas smaller than 1000 km², in large part of the regions of Brazil. Inevitably, these demands are linked to water availability and your determination in lack of measured data becomes necessary to resort to techniques such as regionalization of flows, or the simulation through rain-flow models. However, a period of hydrological monitoring data is still necessary to enable the application of these methodologies. In 1997 it was proposed a method that uses a few samplings of local flow measurements for the determination of the minimum flows through a rain-flow model, whose mathematical process involves two parameters, the Cinf and the Ksub. The first is related to water balance and the second to the river depletion. The objective of this work was to verify the influence of precipitation in the application of this methodology in basins between 800 and 1000 km² in order to subsidize information about the elaboration of a protocol of use of the method. For the case study, four basins with areas between 817 and 965 km² were used, with the availability of fluviometric and pluviometric data series. The methodology used was based on the Silveira method. Initially, rainfall scenarios were elaborated in the four basins for later selection of the drought events, which along with the rainfall scenarios, resulted in a total of 1407 simulations using the Silveira method. For each simulation, a flow continuity curve was generated. The determination of the errors was performed between the pairs of simulated flows and those observed for the considered percentiles. It was observed a tendency of improvement in the results of the simulations, translated by the smaller dispersion of errors, when the precipitation information from more than one pluviometric station is used. Regarding the spatial position of the pluviometric stations, it was verified that there were no significant impacts on the errors when data from the stations located at different points inside the basin and your surroundings. / A crescente demanda pelos recursos hídricos, para as mais diversas finalidades, tem evidenciado um cenário ainda deficitário em relação ao monitoramento fluviométrico, sobretudo em bacias hidrográficas com áreas inferiores a 1000 km², em grande parte das regiões do Brasil. As demandas estão vinculadas a disponibilidade hídrica e para a sua determinação em locais com carência de dados medidos torna-se necessário recorrer a técnicas como a regionalização de vazões, ou a simulação por meio de modelos chuva-vazão. Em 1997 foi proposto um método que se utiliza de poucas amostragens de medições de vazões locais para a determinação das vazões mínimas por meio de um modelo chuva-vazão, cujo processo matemático envolve dois parâmetros, o Cinf e o Ksub. O primeiro está relacionado ao balanço hídrico e o segundo ao deplecionamento fluvial. O objetivo desse trabalho foi verificar a influência da precipitação na aplicação dessa metodologia em bacias entre 800 a 1000 km² visando subsidiar informações acerca da elaboração de um protocolo de uso do método. Para o estudo de caso utilizaram-se quatro bacias com áreas entre 817 e 965 km² com disponibilidade de séries de dados fluviométricos e pluviométricos. A metodologia utilizada foi baseada no método Silveira. Inicialmente foram elaborados cenários de chuvas nas quatro bacias para posterior seleção dos eventos de estiagem, que juntamente com os cenários de chuvas, resultaram em um total de 1407 simulações por meio do uso do método Silveira. Para cada simulação foi gerada uma curva de permanência das vazões. A determinação dos erros foi realizada entre os pares de vazões simulados e os observados para os percentis considerados. Observou-se uma tendência de melhora nos resultados das simulações, traduzido pela menor dispersão dos erros, quando se utiliza informações de precipitação de mais de um posto pluviométrico. Com relação à posição espacial dos postos pluviométricos, verificou-se que não houve impactos significativos nos erros quando se utilizou dados dos postos localizados em diferentes pontos no interior da bacia e no seu entorno.
|
9 |
Cenários de reúso de água pluvial e controle da drenagem visando a recuperação ambiental da micro-bacia do alto Tijuco Preto, São Carlos-SP / Scenarios of rain water reuse and control of urban drainage to environmental recovering the Alto Tijuco Preto micro basin, São Carlos-SP, BrazilOhnuma Júnior, Alfredo Akira 03 February 2005 (has links)
A pesquisa objetiva a composição de cenários de planejamento para o Plano Diretor utilizando-se de medidas de recuperação ambiental através de uma bacia selecionada. São avaliadas simulações hidrológicas através: a) da implantação de: medidas de reúso de águas pluviais com microreservatórios instalados no lote, b) da arborização urbana, c) do reservatório de detenção, d) do coeficiente de permeabilidade, e outras medidas para micro e macro-drenagem. A metodologia utiliza uma base regional para espacializar através de bacias embutidas (MENDIONDO E TUCCI, 1997) a classificação de uso e ocupação do solo para os anos: 1962, 1972 e 1998. Os resultados oferecem diretrizes para novos empreendimentos, loteamentos urbanos e políticas públicas. A situação de passivo ambiental da bacia justifica o estudo em micro-bacias urbanas embutidas. As simulações envolvem cenários retrospectivos de 40 anos, atual e prospectivos de 15 anos com e sem Plano Diretor. Os critérios adotados resultam para o planejamento ambiental melhorias na carga de poluição hídrica e prevê a recuperação de suas funções hidrológicas e ambientais. Inclui-se uma análise de incertezas a partir dos diferentes estados de condições de umidade antecedente que afetam o valor de CN. A partir destes resultados, recomenda-se avaliar novos cenários de planejamento, instrumentação de monitoramento para bacias sem dados que visem o estudo aplicado do aproveitamento de águas pluviais no lote associado às incertezas das previsões hidrológicas dessas bacias sem dados, conforme o programa PUB - Predictions in Ungauged Basins (SIVAPALAN et al, 2003) / The research aims to compose planning scenarios for Master Plan using measures of environmental recovering to control of urban drainage at the scale of an ungauged basin selected. Hydrologic simulations are assessed by the implementation of several measures as: a) indirect impacts of rain water use system in the urban lot, b) urban arborization, c) detention reservoir, d) permeability coefficient and complementary measures at micro and macro drainage. The methodology uses regionally-based nested basins (MENDIONDO e TUCCI, 1997) with a classification of land-use in years: 1962, 1972 and 1998. Results will offer directive to new urban achievements and water policies. Environmental passive situations (diagnosis) at the basin scale justify experimental studies in nested urban micro-basins. The simulations involve retrospective scenarios through 40 years, present state (1998) and prospective scenarios of 15 years with and without master plan. Criteria adopted result in best management practices (BMPs) in water pollution and foresee recovery of hydrologic environmental functions. Analysis of uncertainties of hydrologic estimations to different antecedent moisture conditions through the CN parameter is also presented and discussed. From these results it is recommended to assess new planning scenarios that aim experimental study, thereby looking forward to proposing new concepts of rain water use, i.e. by using micro reservoir at domiciliary lot. These scenarios are to be depicted into the hydrologic uncertainties at basins without data especially addressing the PUB program - Predictions in Ungauged Basins (SIVAPALAN et al, 2003)
|
10 |
Cenários de ocupação urbana e seus impactos no ciclo hidrológico na bacia do córrego do Mineirinho / Scenarios of urban occupation and its hydrologic impacts in the Mineirinho river basinBenini, Rubens de Miranda 01 September 2005 (has links)
Este trabalho teve por objetivo principal estabelecer e comparar diferentes cenários de ocupação urbana e seus efeitos no ciclo hidrológico. Buscou-se avaliar os riscos de enchentes à jusante, causados pelo crescimento urbano e aumento das áreas de impermeabilização que ocorrerão com a implantação do novo campus da USP São Carlos SP e a conseqüente ocupação da bacia devido à especulação imobiliária. Dessa forma, a bacia do córrego do Alto Mineirinho foi dividida em sub-bacias, utilizando a abordagem de bacias embutidas. Foram estudados 4 cenários de ocupação urbana: cenário pré-urbanização (1972); cenário atual (2000), cenário 2025 com plano diretor (CPD) que inclui recuperação ambiental; e cenário 2025 sem plano diretor (SPD). Foram necessárias aerofotografias para demarcação do uso e ocupação do solo. Além disso, esse trabalho iniciou o monitoramento experimental de parâmetros hidrológicos e ambientais. Para avaliação e comparação dos diferentes cenários realizaram-se simulações hidrológicas com uso do modelo hidrológico IPH II. Com as análises hidrológicas foi possível verificar que a bacia, com apenas 18,6 % de urbanização (2000), apresenta qualidade hídrica inferior à recomendada para os corpos dágua classe 2 (CONAMA 357/05). Em relação às simulações hidrológicas, pôde-se observar que no cenário 2025 SPD, a vazão máxima cresceu 388,0 % quando comparada ao cenário 1972 e 319,4 % quando comparada ao cenário 2000. Entre os cenários 2025 CPD e 2025 SPD há diminuição de 22,3 % na vazão máxima e o aumento no tempo de pico é de 50 minutos. Porém, os riscos de enchente, analisados pelo método de curvas de permanência, mostraram-se que mesmo com aplicação de diretrizes do PD os riscos de inundações continuam altos, o que indica a necessidade de integrar medidas estruturais e medidas não-estruturais para amenizar os efeitos de enchentes à jusante / This work aims to establish and to compare different scenarios of urban occupation and its hydrologic effects. It evaluates downstream flood risks caused from upstream urban growth increased due to impervious areas and housing speculation surrounding the implantation of the new campus of University of Sao Paulo in Sao Carlos city, SP. The Mineirinho river basin was studied through nested sub-basin approach. Four scenarios of urban occupation have been depicted: pre-urbanization (year 1972), current situation (year 2000), prospective scenario with master plan (until year 2025; CPD), and expected situation without master plan (until year 2025; SPD). Aerial photos were used to help on the evolution of land occupation between past and current situation. The comparison of different scenarios was outlined with use of hydrologic model IPH II. Moreover, this work set the monitoring and record of hydrologic time series. Through experimental analyses it was verified that with 18,6 % of urban areas the water quality of sub-basins decreased significantly. Hydrologic modeling simulations showed that maximum streamflow discharges of scenario 2025 SPD would rise up to 388,0 % higher than scenario 1972 and 319,4 % higher than scenario 2000 respectively. Maximum stream discharges and peak timing of scenario with master plan of year 2025 (CPD) would have respectively a reduction of 22,3 % and a increase of 50 minutes in comparison to scenario without master plan of year 2025 (SPD). Permanency curves revealed with the application of master plan guidelines flood risks however continue high, thereby pointing the needs of integrate structural and non-structural measures to cope with floods downstream
|
Page generated in 0.0869 seconds