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Hyperglycaemia is prevalent in critical care and increases the risks of further complications and mortality. Glycaemic control has shown benefits in reducing mortality. However, due in parts to excessive metabolic variability, many studies have found it difficult to reproduce these results. Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) patients have low survival rates and often experience hyperglycaemia. However, these patients belongs to one group who has shown benefit from accurate glycaemic control (AGC), but can be highly insulin resistant and variable, particularly on the first two days of stay. Hypothermia is often used to treat post-cardiac arrest patients or out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and these same patients often simultaneously receive insulin. In general, it leads to a lowering of metabolic rate that induces changes in energy metabolism. However, its impact on metabolism and insulin resistance in critical illness is unknown, although one of the adverse events associated with hypothermic therapy is a decrease in insulin sensitivity and insulin secretion. However, this decrease may not be notable in the cohort that is already highly resistant and variable. Hence, understanding metabolic evolution and variability would enable safer and more accurate glycaemic control using insulin in this cohort. OHCA patients were undergone preliminary analysis during cool and warm, which includes insulin sensitivity (SI), blood glucose (BG), and exogenous insulin and dextrose. Patients were analysed based on overall cohort, sub-cohorts, and 6 and 12 hour time block. Generally, the results show that OHCA patients had very low metabolic activity during cool period but significantly increased over time. In contrast, BG is higher during cool period and decreased over time. The analysis is equally important as the controller development since it provides scientific evidence and understanding of patients’ physiology and metabolic evolution especially during cool and warm. Model-based methods can deliver control that is patient-specific and adaptive to handle highly dynamic patients. A physiological ICING-2 model of the glucose-insulin regulatory system is presented in this thesis. This model has three compartments for glucose utilisation, effective interstitial insulin and its transport, and insulin kinetics in blood plasma, with emphasis on clinical applicability. The predictive control for the model is driven by the patient-specific and time-varying insulin sensitivity parameter. A novel integral-based parameter identification enables fast and accurate real-time model adaptation to individual patients and patient condition. Stochastic models and time-series methods for forecasting future insulin sensitivity are presented in this thesis. These methods can deliver probability intervals to support clinical control interventions. The risk of adverse glycaemic outcomes given observed variability from cohort-specific and patient-specific forecasting methods can be quantified to inform clinical staff. Hypoglycaemia can thus be further avoided with the probability interval guided intervention assessments. Simulation studies of STAR-OHCA control trials on ‘virtual patients’ derived from retrospective clinical data provided a framework to optimise control protocol design in-silico. Comparisons with retrospective control showed substantial improvements in glycaemia within the target 4 - 7 mmol/L range by optimising the infusions of insulin. The simulation environment allowed experimentation with controller parameters to arrive at a protocol that operates within the constraints found earlier during patient analysis. Overall, the research presented takes model-based OHCA glycaemic control from concept to proof-of-concept virtual trials. The thesis employs the full range of models, tools and methods to optimise the protocol design and problem solution.

Background: Cancer and diabetes are the second and twelfth leading global causes of death, respectively. Cancer incidence is increased in diabetics compared to non-diabetics. Common pathobiological pathways are shared by the two diseases: hyperglycaemia, hyperinsulinaemia, chronic inflammation and altered concentrations of endogenous hormones. These pathways can all directly or indirectly be linked to chronic hyperglycaemia. Lifestyle factors also affect cancer, diabetes and hyperglycaemia. Hypothesis: Chronic hyperglycaemia is the common biological pathway linking cancer, diabetes and lifestyle factors. Chronic hyperglycaemia can be assessed by monitoring glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels. Aim: The first aim is to investigate whether the link between diabetes and increased cancer risk can be explained by increasing HbA1c levels. Secondly, glycaemic and overall models of lifestyle factors should be developed and compared to determine the relative influence of lifestyle factors on blood glucose level and, subsequently, cancer risk. This could clarify whether improved glycaemic control via lifestyle factors is sufficient to significantly reduce cancer risk. Method: Dose-response meta-analyses on cancer risk and HbA1c levels were performed and the results communicated via a research article. Statistical glycaemic and overall models were developed from published studies on colorectal cancer (CRC), lifestyle factors and HbA1c, via meta-analysis. Log-linear and restricted cubic spline models were considered for studies relating CRC risk to lifestyle factors or HbA1c. Linear models were considered for studies relating HbA1c to lifestyle factors. Only statistically significant models were compared. Results: Increased cancer risk with increasing HbA1c levels was present for a number of cancers, with some cancer types also showing increased risk in the pre-diabetic and normal HbA1c ranges. Comparison of the glycaemic and overall models revealed that HbA1c significantly affected cancer risk and was significantly affected by lifestyle factors. However, the overall effects of lifestyle factors were much stronger than their glycaemic effects (between 9% and 25% difference in risk between overall effects and glycaemic effects at the exposure levels analysed). Glycaemic and overall models for cigarette smoking and chronic stress revealed increased cancer risk with increasing exposure, but decreased cancer risk for increased dietary fibre intake. The glycaemic model for alcohol consumption displayed decreased cancer risk, while the overall model revealed increased cancer risk, emphasising the strong effect of carcinogenic substances in alcohol. Conclusions: Risk for a number of cancers increased with HbA1c levels in diabetic and non-diabetic persons. Cancer prevention by improved blood glucose control seems plausible. The overall effects of lifestyle factors on cancer risk are much stronger than their glycaemic effects. Lifestyle factors alone do not provide enough reduction in blood glucose levels. Other therapeutic strategies for reducing blood glucose levels, such as pharmacotherapeutics or fasting, should be investigated. The possible harmful effects of reducing blood glucose levels, such as neuroglycopaenia, should be considered before implementation of therapeutic strategies. Although there seems to be a strong association between HbA1c and cancer risk, this does not imply causality. The possibility of residual confounding cannot be ignored, even though the most adjusted estimates were used to develop the models, where possible. / MIng (Electrical and Electronic Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

Background: Cancer and diabetes are the second and twelfth leading global causes of death, respectively. Cancer incidence is increased in diabetics compared to non-diabetics. Common pathobiological pathways are shared by the two diseases: hyperglycaemia, hyperinsulinaemia, chronic inflammation and altered concentrations of endogenous hormones. These pathways can all directly or indirectly be linked to chronic hyperglycaemia. Lifestyle factors also affect cancer, diabetes and hyperglycaemia. Hypothesis: Chronic hyperglycaemia is the common biological pathway linking cancer, diabetes and lifestyle factors. Chronic hyperglycaemia can be assessed by monitoring glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels. Aim: The first aim is to investigate whether the link between diabetes and increased cancer risk can be explained by increasing HbA1c levels. Secondly, glycaemic and overall models of lifestyle factors should be developed and compared to determine the relative influence of lifestyle factors on blood glucose level and, subsequently, cancer risk. This could clarify whether improved glycaemic control via lifestyle factors is sufficient to significantly reduce cancer risk. Method: Dose-response meta-analyses on cancer risk and HbA1c levels were performed and the results communicated via a research article. Statistical glycaemic and overall models were developed from published studies on colorectal cancer (CRC), lifestyle factors and HbA1c, via meta-analysis. Log-linear and restricted cubic spline models were considered for studies relating CRC risk to lifestyle factors or HbA1c. Linear models were considered for studies relating HbA1c to lifestyle factors. Only statistically significant models were compared. Results: Increased cancer risk with increasing HbA1c levels was present for a number of cancers, with some cancer types also showing increased risk in the pre-diabetic and normal HbA1c ranges. Comparison of the glycaemic and overall models revealed that HbA1c significantly affected cancer risk and was significantly affected by lifestyle factors. However, the overall effects of lifestyle factors were much stronger than their glycaemic effects (between 9% and 25% difference in risk between overall effects and glycaemic effects at the exposure levels analysed). Glycaemic and overall models for cigarette smoking and chronic stress revealed increased cancer risk with increasing exposure, but decreased cancer risk for increased dietary fibre intake. The glycaemic model for alcohol consumption displayed decreased cancer risk, while the overall model revealed increased cancer risk, emphasising the strong effect of carcinogenic substances in alcohol. Conclusions: Risk for a number of cancers increased with HbA1c levels in diabetic and non-diabetic persons. Cancer prevention by improved blood glucose control seems plausible. The overall effects of lifestyle factors on cancer risk are much stronger than their glycaemic effects. Lifestyle factors alone do not provide enough reduction in blood glucose levels. Other therapeutic strategies for reducing blood glucose levels, such as pharmacotherapeutics or fasting, should be investigated. The possible harmful effects of reducing blood glucose levels, such as neuroglycopaenia, should be considered before implementation of therapeutic strategies. Although there seems to be a strong association between HbA1c and cancer risk, this does not imply causality. The possibility of residual confounding cannot be ignored, even though the most adjusted estimates were used to develop the models, where possible. / MIng (Electrical and Electronic Engineering), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014