This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

La presente tesi indaga le potenzialità, in termini di criteri operativi di inserimento ambientale e procedure di intervento, che possono derivare dall’analisi dei fenomeni insediativi facendo riferimento ai concetti di ‘transizione’ e ‘resilienza’. L’attuale periodo di crisi sembra scaturire dal disequilibrio di due fattori: le esigenze umane e l’ambiente. La contestualizzazione degli interventi, il graduale adattamento alle risorse ambientali locali e la valorizzazione dei processi “dal basso” sembrano consentire di riappropriarsi sia del valore identitario dei luoghi, dando risposta ai problemi di natura sociale evidenziati, sia della eco-compatibilità delle trasformazioni, del corretto utilizzo delle risorse energetiche e della gestione delle dinamiche economiche, in risposta ai problemi ambientali analizzati. Il prefigurare applicazioni pratiche del modello di trasformazione indagato alla scala edilizia, utilizzando tavole parametriche di analisi del costruito, viste d’insieme planivolumetriche ed elaborazioni di dati e immagini, può consentire la gestione di eventuali fasi di programmazione e di pianificazione da parte delle amministrazioni finalizzate a favorire e non ostacolare i presenti e futuri fenomeni di transizione. Particolarmente significativa appare l’analisi delle diverse tendenze di ricerca progettuale in atto, con riferimento a contributi caratterizzati da un’impostazione fenomenologica e tipo-morfologica, che dimostra l’attualità degli argomenti affrontati. La ricerca di Dottorato si conclude con l’applicazione dei criteri operativi di inserimento ambientale e delle procedure di intervento individuati ad uno specifico caso di studio. / The thesis explores operational criteria and intervention procedures as derived from the analysis of settlement phenomena and related to the concepts of 'transition' and ‘resilience’. The actual period of crisis seems to be originated from two unbalanced factors: human needs and environment. Fitting interventions in the 'context', gradually shifting to local sources, and empowering processes “from the the bottom” seem to offer both the possibility to regain place identity, answering to social problems, and to generate eco-compatible solutions, with the proper use of energy sources and the right management of local economic dynamics. Foreshadowing practical applications of the transformation model, through various tables, aerial views and architectural sketches, can help the government of the next stages of programmation and planning at urban scale, in order to facilitate and not to hinder present and future transition phenomena. One of the main chapter is dedicated to the various field of research characterized by the phenomenological and typo-morphological approach, demonstrating the actuality of the analyzed issues. In the last chapter criteria and procedures proposed for environmental integration are applied to a specific case study.

La finalità della ricerca è l'individuazione di uno strumento urbanistico per governare il territorio metropolitano che garantisca la successione efficace ed efficiente delle azioni nelle quali si articola il processo di pianificazione strategica. All'interno della ricerca, da un lato si indaga lo sviluppo storico-culturale che ha caratterizzato in Italia il concetto di area metropolitana, individuandone i contenuti e le operazioni che portano alla perimetrazione del suo territorio. Dall'altro lato si approfondisce il tema della pianificazione strategica come strumento fondamentale per il governo delle città metropolitane intermedie. Si è proceduto all'approfondimento del dibattito culturale e scientifico sul tema delle aree metropolitane, nell'esperienza di pianificazione strategica sviluppata in ambito internazionale e successivamente il dibattito politico che si è sviluppato nella realtà italiana sul concetto di area metropolitana, evidenziandone gli aspetti condivisi e le diverse tipologie di approccio per ottenere una perimetrazione utile al piano di governo del territorio. Ovviamente, nel processo di analisi, un ruolo dominante è stato assunto dal quadro istituzionale e normativo che si è sviluppato ed è tuttora in corso sul tema delle aree metropolitane. Alla tematica relativa alla definizione delle aree, si è sviluppato un consistente approfondimento sui requisiti che devono essere posseduti da un piano strategico costruito sulle esigenze di un'area metropolitana. E' stata individuata l'area metropolitana di Bologna quale area oggetto di studio approfondito, ripercorrendo le vicende che hanno animato il dibattito sulla nascita della Città metropolitana delimitata dalla Provincia. A tal proposito, si è sviluppata una riflessione sui contenuti innovativi e promozionali del piano strategico, valutando gli effetti che il Piano Strategico Metropolitano in corso di elaborazione sarà in grado di produrre sulle dinamiche territoriali e socio-economiche dell'area bolognese. / The purpose is the identification of a planning instrument to govern the metropolitan territory. The document should ensure the efficient sequence of actions which make up the strategic planning process. Within the research explores the historical and cultural development that has characterized Italian metropolitan area, identifying the operations that lead to the delimitation of its territory. It also examines the issue of strategic planning as a fundamental tool for the government of intermediate metropolitan cities. The research has proceeded in the deepening of cultural and scientific debate on the issue of metropolitan areas in the experience of strategic planning developed in the international arena. The basic themes were the selection of references useful in discussing the theme of metropolitan areas and methods for the construction of a strategic plan in the territorial governments of large areas. It then analyzed the political debate that has developed in the Italian reality, highlighting the shared aspects and the different types of approach to get a perimeter useful to the plan of government of the territory. Of course, a dominant role was assumed by the institutional framework that has been developed and is still in the progress on the issue of metropolitan areas. It also has developed a substantial deepening of the requirements that must be possessed by a strategic plan built on the needs of a metropolitan area. Then the metropolitan area of ​​Bologna has been identified where the subject of extensive study area, retracing the events that have enlivened the debate on the emergence of the Metropolitan City bordered by the Province. In this regard, it has developed a reflection on the content of the strategic approach, evaluating the effects of the Metropolitan Strategic Plan being developed, it will be able to produce territorial and social-economic dynamics to the Bologna area.

The instability of river bank can result in considerable human and land losses. The Po river is the most important in Italy, characterized by main banks of significant and constantly increasing height. This study presents multilayer perceptron of artificial neural network (ANN) to construct prediction models for the stability analysis of river banks along the Po River, under various river and groundwater boundary conditions. For this aim, a number of networks of threshold logic unit are tested using different combinations of the input parameters. Factor of safety (FS), as an index of slope stability, is formulated in terms of several influencing geometrical and geotechnical parameters. In order to obtain a comprehensive geotechnical database, several cone penetration tests from the study site have been interpreted. The proposed models are developed upon stability analyses using finite element code over different representative sections of river embankments. For the validity verification, the ANN models are employed to predict the FS values of a part of the database beyond the calibration data domain. The results indicate that the proposed ANN models are effective tools for evaluating the slope stability. The ANN models notably outperform the derived multiple linear regression models.

The thesis analyses the hydrodynamic induced by an array of Wave energy Converters (WECs), under an experimental and numerical point of view. WECs can be considered an innovative solution able to contribute to the green energy supply and –at the same time– to protect the rear coastal area under marine spatial planning considerations. This research activity essentially rises due to this combined concept. The WEC under exam is a floating device belonging to the Wave Activated Bodies (WAB) class. Experimental data were performed at Aalborg University in different scales and layouts, and the performance of the models was analysed under a variety of irregular wave attacks. The numerical simulations performed with the codes MIKE 21 BW and ANSYS-AQWA. Experimental results were also used to calibrate the numerical parameters and/or to directly been compared to numerical results, in order to extend the experimental database. Results of the research activity are summarized in terms of device performance and guidelines for a future wave farm installation. The device length should be “tuned” based on the local climate conditions. The wave transmission behind the devices is pretty high, suggesting that the tested layout should be considered as a module of a wave farm installation. Indications on the minimum inter-distance among the devices are provided. Furthermore, a CALM mooring system leads to lower wave transmission and also larger power production than a spread mooring. The two numerical codes have different potentialities. The hydrodynamics around single and multiple devices is obtained with MIKE 21 BW, while wave loads and motions for a single moored device are derived from ANSYS-AQWA. Combining the experimental and numerical it is suggested –for both coastal protection and energy production– to adopt a staggered layout, which will maximise the devices density and minimize the marine space required for the installation.

The cone penetration test (CPT), together with its recent variation (CPTU), has become the most widely used in-situ testing technique for soil profiling and geotechnical characterization. The knowledge gained over the last decades on the interpretation procedures in sands and clays is certainly wide, whilst very few contributions can be found as regards the analysis of CPT(u) data in intermediate soils. Indeed, it is widely accepted that at the standard rate of penetration (v = 20 mm/s), drained penetration occurs in sands while undrained penetration occurs in clays. However, a problem arise when the available interpretation approaches are applied to cone measurements in silts, sandy silts, silty or clayey sands, since such intermediate geomaterials are often characterized by permeability values within the range in which partial drainage is very likely to occur. Hence, the application of the available and well-established interpretation procedures, developed for ‘standard’ clays and sands, may result in invalid estimates of soil parameters. This study aims at providing a better understanding on the interpretation of CPTU data in natural sand and silt mixtures, by taking into account two main aspects, as specified below: 1)Investigating the effect of penetration rate on piezocone measurements, with the aim of identifying drainage conditions when cone penetration is performed at a standard rate. This part of the thesis has been carried out with reference to a specific CPTU database recently collected in a liquefaction-prone area (Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy). 2)Providing a better insight into the interpretation of piezocone tests in the widely studied silty sediments of the Venetian lagoon (Italy). Research has focused on the calibration and verification of some site-specific correlations, with special reference to the estimate of compressibility parameters for the assessment of long-term settlements of the Venetian coastal defences.

Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas around the world, billions of dollars in damage to property and infrastructure, and threatens the lives of millions of people. Therefore, disaster management and risk assessment aims at detecting vulnerability and capacities in order to reduce coastal flood disaster risk. In particular, non-specialized researchers, emergency management personnel, and land use planners require an accurate, inexpensive method to determine and map risk associated with storm surge events and long-term sea level rise associated with climate change. This study contributes to the spatially evaluation and mapping of social-economic-environmental vulnerability and risk at sub-national scale through the development of appropriate tools and methods successfully embedded in a Web-GIS Decision Support System. A new set of raster-based models were studied and developed in order to be easily implemented in the Web-GIS framework with the purpose to quickly assess and map flood hazards characteristics, damage and vulnerability in a Multi-criteria approach. The Web-GIS DSS is developed recurring to open source software and programming language and its main peculiarity is to be available and usable by coastal managers and land use planners without requiring high scientific background in hydraulic engineering. The effectiveness of the system in the coastal risk assessment is evaluated trough its application to a real case study.

La tesi è suddivisa in due parti. La prima è dedicata alla determinazione della Deflessione della Verticale (DdV) in Medicina (BO). Vengono presentati tre metodi per la determinazione delle componenti della DdV. Il primo utilizza la livellazione geometrica ed il sistema GNSS, il secondo, eseguito dal dott. Serantoni, utilizza il sistema QDaedalus, messo a punto all' ETH di Zurigo ed il terzo approccio utilizza il programma ConvER, messo a disposizione dalla regione Emilia-Romagna. Nella seconda parte viene presentato un metodo per la determinazione del Coefficiente di Rifrazione Atmosferico (CRA). La procedura di calcolo è di tipo iterativo ed utilizza, oltre agli angoli zenitali, anche le distanze misurate. Il metodo è stato testato in due aree di studio. La prima nella città di Limassol (Cipro) in ambiente urbano nell' autunno 2013. La seconda in Venezia nella laguna durante l'estate 2014. / In the thesis are treated two subjects. The first one is determination of vertical deflections in Medicina (BO). Three methods are presented. The first one using geodetic leveling and satellite GPS positioning, the second one by dott. Serantoni using QDaedalus a special total station with a ccd sensor and the third one using ConvER, a special program by Emilia-Romagna community network. The second subject is the determination of Atmospheric Refraction Coefficient. An iterative method is presented in two study areas. The first one is in the city of Limassol (Cyprus), and the second one in Venezia (Italy).

Mountainous areas are prone to natural hazards like rockfalls. Among the many countermeasures, rockfall protection barriers represent an effective solution to mitigate the risk. They are metallic structures designed to intercept rocks falling from unstable slopes, thus dissipating the energy deriving from the impact. This study aims at providing a better understanding of the response of several rockfall barrier types, through the development of rather sophisticated three-dimensional numerical finite elements models which take into account for the highly dynamic and non-linear conditions of such events. The models are built considering the actual geometrical and mechanical properties of real systems. Particular attention is given to the connecting details between the structural components and to their interactions. The importance of the work lies in being able to support a wide experimental activity with appropriate numerical modelling. The data of several full-scale tests carried out on barrier prototypes, as well as on their structural components, are combined with results of numerical simulations. Though the models are designed with relatively simple solutions in order to obtain a low computational cost of the simulations, they are able to reproduce with great accuracy the test results, thus validating the reliability of the numerical strategy proposed for the design of these structures. The developed models have shown to be readily applied to predict the barrier performance under different possible scenarios, by varying the initial configuration of the structures and/or of the impact conditions. Furthermore, the numerical models enable to optimize the design of these structures and to evaluate the benefit of possible solutions. Finally it is shown they can be also used as a valuable supporting tool for the operators within a rockfall risk assessment procedure, to gain crucial understanding of the performance of existing barriers in working conditions.

The uncertainties in the determination of the stratigraphic profile of natural soils is one of the main problems in geotechnics, in particular for landslide characterization and modeling. The study deals with a new approach in geotechnical modeling which relays on a stochastic generation of different soil layers distributions, following a boolean logic – the method has been thus called BoSG (Boolean Stochastic Generation). In this way, it is possible to randomize the presence of a specific material interdigitated in a uniform matrix. In the building of a geotechnical model it is generally common to discard some stratigraphic data in order to simplify the model itself, assuming that the significance of the results of the modeling procedure would not be affected. With the proposed technique it is possible to quantify the error associated with this simplification. Moreover, it could be used to determine the most significant zones where eventual further investigations and surveys would be more effective to build the geotechnical model of the slope. The commercial software FLAC was used for the 2D and 3D geotechnical model. The distribution of the materials was randomized through a specifically coded MatLab program that automatically generates text files, each of them representing a specific soil configuration. Besides, a routine was designed to automate the computation of FLAC with the different data files in order to maximize the sample number. The methodology is applied with reference to a simplified slope in 2D, a simplified slope in 3D and an actual landslide, namely the Mortisa mudslide (Cortina d’Ampezzo, BL, Italy). However, it could be extended to numerous different cases, especially for hydrogeological analysis and landslide stability assessment, in different geological and geomorphological contexts. / L’incertezza nella determinazione del profilo stratigrafico e dei parametri meccanici dei singoli terreni è tra i principali problemi dell’ingegneria geotecnica, in particolare per l’analisi dei fenomeni franosi. Lo studio presenta un nuovo approccio nella modellazione geotecnica che si basa sulla generazione stocastica di diverse distribuzioni di strati di terreno, seguendo una logica booleana - il metodo è stato perciò chiamato BoSG (Boolean Stochastic Generation – Generazione Stocastica Booleana). Con questo metodo è possibile randomizzare la presenza di uno specifico materiale interdigitato in una matrice uniforme. Nell’impostare un modello geotecnico, infatti, generalmente si eliminano alcuni dati stratigrafici per semplificare il modello stesso, assumendo che la significatività dei risultati non ne risenta. La metodologia proposta permette di quantificare l'errore associato a questa semplificazione. Inoltre, può essere utilizzata per determinare le zone più significativi nelle quali possibili ulteriori indagini geotecniche sarebbero più efficaci per la definizione del modello geotecnico. Per la modellizzazione bidimensionale e tridimensionale è stato utilizzato il software commerciale alle differenze finite FLAC. La distribuzione dei materiali è stata randomizzata attraverso un programma in MatLab specificamente codificato che genera automaticamente dei file di testo con le configurazioni del terreno. E’ stata inoltre programmata una routine per automatizzare il calcolo FLAC con diverse file di dati al fine di massimizzare la numerosità campionaria. In questa tesi la metodologia è stata applicata ad un pendio semplice in 2D, un pendio semplice in 3D e una frana reale: la frana di colata di Mortisa (Cortina d'Ampezzo, BL). Il metodo, tuttavia, potrebbe essere applicato ad altri casi, in particolare per studi di idrologia sotterranea, per l’analisi di stabilità di altre frane e in diversi contesti geologici e geomorfologici