Spelling suggestions: "subject:"implies""
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Organization & Analysis of Stock Option Market DataZhang, Jun 08 January 2011 (has links)
Option market data are quoted in terms of option prices and are fragmented into over 100 individual contract files per day for each symbol. Traders and quantitative analysts compare values of options in terms of implied volatilities. The current project refactors fragmented option price data into implied volatility files organized by stock symbols and expiration dates. Each resulting file comprises the temporal evolution of daily volatility smile curves for every day prior to expiration. Possible analysis enabled by the refactored data is demonstrated.
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Multiscale modeling and analysis of option marketsJoseph, Charles 11 June 2014 (has links)
No description available.
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Implied licences in copyright lawMysoor, Poorna January 2017 (has links)
Copyright licences can be implied when the doing of a restricted act is covered neither by the express licence of the copyright owner, nor by one of the statutory limitations and exceptions. The manner in which copyright licences are implied, therefore, holds the key to broadening the scope of permissible acts. In contrast to the rigidity of statutory limitations and exceptions, implied licences are more malleable in being able to respond to a diverse set of circumstances, as the need arises. Thus, implied licences can serve as a flexible and targeted mechanism to balance competing interests, including those of copyright owners and content users, especially in todayâs dynamic technological environment. However, implication as a process is contentious, and there are no established rules for implying a licence. Implication of a copyright licence is even more complicated because the conceptualisation of a copyright licence is unsatisfactory. The resulting uncertainty has prevented implied licences from being embraced more readily by the courts. The objective of this thesis is, therefore, firstly, to reconceptualise a copyright licence that is broad enough to accommodate the diverse circumstances in which copyright licences arise, and certain enough to assist in finding their constituents; secondly, to propose frameworks for implying copyright licences in a methodical and transparent manner, based on three sources: the consent of the copyright owner; an established custom; and state intervention to achieve public policy goals. The frameworks are also customised differently for implied bare and implied contractual licences. The thesis demonstrates the robustness of these frameworks by rationalising them with the existing case law. Underscoring the contemporary relevance of implied licences, in conclusion, the thesis tests and validates the frameworks in relation to three essential and ubiquitous functions on the internet â browsing, hyperlinking and indexing.
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Implied Volatility and Extracted Risk Neutral Density of VIX Options during the Crisis and Relatively Calm PeriodsSantawisook, Patchara 30 April 2015 (has links)
The 2008 financial crisis provides a valuable opportunity to study empirical data of market volatility during severe financial crisis. In this thesis, we study the implied volatility of VIX options during the crisis (2008) and a relatively calm period (2011). We present a method of calculating the implied volatility of VIX options and fit the implied volatilities using a 4th degree spline interpolation and propose method of extracting risk neutral density from fitted data. We analyze the slope and the level of the fitted implied volatility of VIX options during those periods. The results show that the level of the implied volatility of VIX options is higher and the slope is flatter during the distressed market compared to the relative calm periods.
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How Well Does Implied Volatility Predict Future Stock Index Returns and Volatility? : A Study of Option-Implied Volatility Derived from OMXS30 Index OptionsVikberg, Sara, Björkman, Julia January 2020 (has links)
The purpose of this thesis is to study if and how well implied volatility can predict realised volatility and returns on the OMXS30 index one month in the future. The findings are put in relation to how historical volatility can predict realised volatility and how changes in implied volatility can predict returns. The study covers the time period from 10th of May 2012 to 9th of February 2020 and the implied volatility used in the study is derived from an unweighted average of OMXS30 call and put option implied volatility. Six different OLS-regressions are performed to study the prediction capability of implied volatility. This study finds support of implied volatility to be a statistically significant estimate for future realised returns in a univariate regression. However, our results show that historical volatility performs slightly better predictions of realised volatility than implied volatility. These are contradictory results to the majority of the papers studied in this thesis. These papers share the common notion that implied volatility is superior to historical volatility in predicting realised volatility. Further our results show that implied volatility nor change in implied volatility are significant estimates to future realised returns and perform poorly as predictors. This result is supported by the larger part of previous research, which found implied volatility to be a weak predictor of returns.
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Forecasting Oil Price VolatilitySharma, Namit 12 June 1998 (has links)
This study compares different methods of forecasting price volatility in the crude oil futures market using daily data for the period November 1986 through March 1997. It compares the forward-looking implied volatility measure with two backward-looking time-series measures based on past returns - a simple historical volatility estimator and a set of estimators based on the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) class of models.
Tests for the relative information content of implied volatilities vis-Ã -vis GARCH time series models are conducted within-sample by estimating nested conditional variance equations with returns information and implied volatilities as explanatory variables. Likelihood ratio tests indicate that both implied volatilities and past returns contribute volatility information. The study also checks for and confirms that the conditional Generalized Error Distribution (GED) better describes fat-tailed returns in the crude oil market as compared to the conditional normal distribution.
Out-of-sample forecasts of volatility using the GARCH GED model, implied volatility, and historical volatility are compared with realized volatility over two-week and four-week horizons to determine forecast accuracy. Forecasts are also evaluated for predictive power by regressing realized volatility on the forecasts. GARCH forecasts, though superior to historical volatility, do not perform as well as implied volatility over the two-week horizon. In the four-week case, historical volatility outperforms both of the other measures. Tests of relative information content show that for both forecast horizons, a combination of implied volatility and historical volatility leaves little information to be added by the GARCH model. / Master of Arts
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Testing the predictive ability of corridor implied volatility under GARCH modelsLu, Shan 2018 November 1921 (has links)
Yes / This paper studies the predictive ability of corridor implied volatility (CIV) measure. It is motivated by the fact that CIV is measured with better precision and reliability than the model-free implied volatility due to the lack of liquid options in the tails of the risk-neutral distribution. By adding CIV measures to the modified GARCH specifications, the out-of-sample predictive ability of CIV is measured by the forecast accuracy of conditional volatility. It finds that the narrowest CIV measure, covering about 10% of the RND, dominate the 1-day ahead conditional volatility forecasts regardless of the choice of GARCH models in high volatile period; as market moves to non volatile periods, the optimal width broadens. For multi-day ahead forecasts narrow and mid-range CIV measures are favoured in the full sample and high volatile period for all forecast horizons, depending on which loss functions are used; whereas in non turbulent markets, certain mid-range CIV measures are favoured, for rare instances, wide CIV measures dominate the performance. Regarding the comparisons between best performed CIV measures and two benchmark measures (market volatility index and at-the-money Black–Scholes implied volatility), it shows that under the EGARCH framework, none of the benchmark measures are found to outperform best performed CIV measures, whereas under the GARCH and NAGARCH models, best performed CIV measures are outperformed by benchmark measures for certain instances.
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How reliable is implied volatility A comparison between implied and actual volatility on an index at the Nordic MarketKozyreva, Maria January 2007 (has links)
<p>Volatility forecast plays a central role in the financial decision making process. An intrinsic purpose of any investor is profit earning. For that purpose investors need to estimate the risk. One of the most efficient</p><p>methods to this end is the volatility estimation. In this theses I compare the CBOE Volatility Index, (VIX) with the actual volatility on an index at the Nordic Market. The actual volatility is defined as the one-day-ahead prediction as calculated by using the GARCH(1,1) model. By using the VIX model I performed consecutive predictions 30 days ahead between February the 2nd, 2007 to March</p><p>the 6th, 2007. These predictions were compared with the GARCH(1,1) one-day-ahead predictions for the same period. To my knowledge, such comparisons have not been performed earlier on the Nordic Market. The conclusion of the study was that the VIX predictions tends to higher values then the GARCH(1,1) predictions except for large prices upward jumps, which indicates that the VIX is not able to predict future shocks.</p><p>Except from these jumps, the VIX more often shows larger value than the GARCH(1,1). This is interpreted as an uncertainly of the prediction. However, the VIX predictions follows the actual volatility reasonable</p><p>well. I conclude that the VIX estimation can be used as a reliable estimator of market volatility.</p>
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How reliable is implied volatility A comparison between implied and actual volatility on an index at the Nordic MarketKozyreva, Maria January 2007 (has links)
Volatility forecast plays a central role in the financial decision making process. An intrinsic purpose of any investor is profit earning. For that purpose investors need to estimate the risk. One of the most efficient methods to this end is the volatility estimation. In this theses I compare the CBOE Volatility Index, (VIX) with the actual volatility on an index at the Nordic Market. The actual volatility is defined as the one-day-ahead prediction as calculated by using the GARCH(1,1) model. By using the VIX model I performed consecutive predictions 30 days ahead between February the 2nd, 2007 to March the 6th, 2007. These predictions were compared with the GARCH(1,1) one-day-ahead predictions for the same period. To my knowledge, such comparisons have not been performed earlier on the Nordic Market. The conclusion of the study was that the VIX predictions tends to higher values then the GARCH(1,1) predictions except for large prices upward jumps, which indicates that the VIX is not able to predict future shocks. Except from these jumps, the VIX more often shows larger value than the GARCH(1,1). This is interpreted as an uncertainly of the prediction. However, the VIX predictions follows the actual volatility reasonable well. I conclude that the VIX estimation can be used as a reliable estimator of market volatility.
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Voluntary compliance and implied cost of equity capital : evidence from Canadian share repurchase programsLeung, Joanne 18 September 2008
Securities legislation in Canada and around the world does not mandate firms to fulfill announced share repurchase programs. As such, a firms repurchase program completion rate can be interpreted as a measure of the firms voluntary compliance, which communicates to investors the degree to which the firm is responsible, reliable and makes good faith efforts to fulfill its announced programs. We therefore expect that the voluntary compliance may reduce the riskiness of a firm and thus its cost of capital. In a sample of Canadian repurchase programs announced between 1995 and 2004, surprisingly, we find little evidence to suggest that a significant relationship exists between the firms repurchase program completion rate and the cost of equity. We present a number of explanations for this result.
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