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The Impact of the U.S. and Mexican Monetary Policy on Mexican GDP and PricesRodríguez Hernández, Lorenzo January 2015 (has links)
No description available.
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Modelování indexu finančního stresu v České republice pomocí vektorové autoregrese / Modelling of Financial Stress Index in the Czech Republic using Vector Autoregression AnalysisMalega, Ján January 2015 (has links)
This study constructs a financial stress index with a specific focus on the case of the Czech Republic. The advantage of the index is primarily its ability to measure the current level of stress in the financial system incorporating information from various sectors of the economy and expressing it in a single-value statistic. Our index successfully recorded and evaluated critical periods of elevated financial stress especially during the recent financial crisis. Furthermore, we examine a systematic interaction between financial stress and the macroeconomics using vector autoregression analysis along with method of impulse responses. Based on our results we observe a significant and positive response of unemployment due to the shock in financial stress. Conversely, a negative effect was examined on inflation and interest rates. JEL Classification G17, G32 Keywords financial stress index, vector autoregression, impulse responses
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Development of a Real-Time Auralization System for Assessment of Vocal Effort in Virtual-Acoustic EnvironmentsWhiting, Jennifer Kay 01 April 2018 (has links)
This thesis describes the development of the real-time convolution system (RTCS) for a little-studied talker/listener in virtual acoustic environments. We include descriptions of the high-resolution directivity measurements of human speech, the RTCS system components, the measurement and characterization of oral-binaural room impulse responses (OBRIRs) for a variety of acoustic environments, and the compensation filter necessary for its validity. In addition to incorporating the high-resolution directivity measurements, this RTCS improved on that developed by Cabrera et al. [1] through the derivation and inclusion of the compensation filter. Objective measures in the time- and frequency-domains, as well as subjective measures, were developed to asses the validity of the RTCS. The utility of the RTCS is demonstrated in the study on vocal effort, and the results of an initial investigation into the vocal effort data are presented.
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Spatial sound rendering using measured room impulse responsesLi, Yan 24 August 2010 (has links)
This thesis presents a spatial sound rendering system for the use in immersive virtual environments. Spatial sound rendering aims at artificially reproducing the acoustics of a space. It has many applications such as music production, movies, electronic gaming and teleconferencing. Conventionally, spatial sound rendering is implemented by digital signal processing algorithms derived from perceptual models or simplified physical models. While being flexible and/or efficient, these models are not able to capture the acoustical impression of a space faithfully. On the other side, convolving the sound sources with properly measured impulse responses produces the highest possible fidelity, but it is not practically useful for many applications because one impulse response corresponds to one source/listener configuration so that the sources or the listeners can not be relocated.
In this thesis, techniques for measuring multichannel room impulse responses (MMRIR) are reviewed. Then, methods for analyzing measured MMRIR and rendering virtual acoustical environment based on such analysis are presented and evaluated. The analysis can be performed off-line. During this stage, a set of filters that represent the characteristics of the air and walls inside the acoustic space are obtained. Based on the assumption that the MMRIR acquired at one "good" position in the target space can be used to simulate the late reverb at other positions in the same space, appropriate segments that can be used as reverb tails are extracted from the measured MMRIR. The rendering system first constructs an early reflection model based on the positions of the listener-source pair and the filters derived, then combines with the late reverb segments to form a complete listener-source-room acoustical model that can be used to synthesize high quality multi-channel audio for arbitrary listener-source positions. Another merit of the proposed framework is that it is scalable. At the expense of slightly degraded rendering quality, the computational complexity can be greatly reduced. This makes this framework suitable for a wide range of applications that have different quality and complexity requirements.
The proposed framework has been evaluated by formal listening tests. These tests have proven the effectiveness in preserving the spatial quality while positioning the listener-source pair accurately, as well as justified the key assumptions made by the proposed system.
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A simplified approach in FAVAR estimationLien Oskarsson, Mathias, Lin, Christopher January 2018 (has links)
In the field of empirical macroeconomics factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models have become a popular tool in explaining how economic variables interact over time. FAVAR is based upon a data-reduction step using factor estimation, which are then employed in a vector autoregressive model. This paper aims to study alternative methods regarding factor estimation. More precisely, we compare the generally used principal component method with the uncomplicated common correlated effect estimation. Results show low divergence between the two factor estimation methods employed, indicating interchangeability between the two estimation approaches.
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Transmisní mechanismus měnové politiky Federálního rezervního systému / Transmission mechanism of Monetary Policy of the Federal Reserve SystemPetříková, Eva January 2008 (has links)
This thesis analyses the chief relations inside the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve System during the period from 1955 to 2007. The theoretical part of the thesis describes the principles of the history of Federal Reserve and his monetary policy, the development of Fed's monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, the lags in the monetary policy and various theories which deal with try to explain the monetary policy relations. In the analytical part I focus on answering the most laid questions whether, how much and for how long do the nominal interest rates and monetary aggregates affect the real variables (mainly the real domestic product) of the United States. Next I focus on investigating the monetarist assumption of money neutrality in the long run. I also introduce Granger causality and Impulse and Responses investigations into proposed VAR model.
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Factor models, VARMA processes and parameter instability with applications in macroeconomicsStevanovic, Dalibor 05 1900 (has links)
Avec les avancements de la technologie de l'information, les données temporelles économiques et financières sont de plus en plus disponibles. Par contre, si les techniques standard de l'analyse des séries temporelles sont utilisées, une grande quantité d'information est accompagnée du problème de dimensionnalité. Puisque la majorité des séries d'intérêt sont hautement corrélées, leur dimension peut être réduite en utilisant l'analyse factorielle. Cette technique est de plus en plus populaire en sciences économiques depuis les années 90.
Étant donnée la disponibilité des données et des avancements computationnels, plusieurs nouvelles questions se posent. Quels sont les effets et la transmission des chocs structurels dans un environnement riche en données? Est-ce que l'information contenue dans un grand ensemble d'indicateurs économiques peut aider à mieux identifier les chocs de politique monétaire, à l'égard des problèmes rencontrés dans les applications utilisant des modèles standards? Peut-on identifier les chocs financiers et mesurer leurs effets sur l'économie réelle? Peut-on améliorer la méthode factorielle existante et y incorporer une autre technique de réduction de dimension comme l'analyse VARMA? Est-ce que cela produit de meilleures prévisions des grands agrégats macroéconomiques et aide au niveau de l'analyse par fonctions de réponse impulsionnelles? Finalement, est-ce qu'on peut appliquer l'analyse factorielle au niveau des paramètres aléatoires? Par exemple, est-ce qu'il existe seulement un petit nombre de sources de l'instabilité temporelle des coefficients dans les modèles macroéconomiques empiriques?
Ma thèse, en utilisant l'analyse factorielle structurelle et la modélisation VARMA, répond à ces questions à travers cinq articles. Les deux premiers chapitres étudient les effets des chocs monétaire et financier dans un environnement riche en données. Le troisième article propose une nouvelle méthode en combinant les modèles à facteurs et VARMA. Cette approche est appliquée dans le quatrième article pour mesurer les effets des chocs de crédit au Canada. La contribution du dernier chapitre est d'imposer la structure à facteurs sur les paramètres variant dans le temps et de montrer qu'il existe un petit nombre de sources de cette instabilité.
Le premier article analyse la transmission de la politique monétaire au Canada en utilisant le modèle vectoriel autorégressif augmenté par facteurs (FAVAR). Les études antérieures basées sur les modèles VAR ont trouvé plusieurs anomalies empiriques suite à un choc de la politique monétaire. Nous estimons le modèle FAVAR en utilisant un grand nombre de séries macroéconomiques mensuelles et trimestrielles. Nous trouvons que l'information contenue dans les facteurs est importante pour bien identifier la transmission de la politique monétaire et elle aide à corriger les anomalies empiriques standards. Finalement, le cadre d'analyse FAVAR permet d'obtenir les fonctions de réponse impulsionnelles pour tous les indicateurs dans l'ensemble de données, produisant ainsi l'analyse la plus complète à ce jour des effets de la politique monétaire au Canada.
Motivée par la dernière crise économique, la recherche sur le rôle du secteur financier a repris de l'importance. Dans le deuxième article nous examinons les effets et la propagation des chocs de crédit sur l'économie réelle en utilisant un grand ensemble d'indicateurs économiques et financiers dans le cadre d'un modèle à facteurs structurel. Nous trouvons qu'un choc de crédit augmente immédiatement les diffusions de crédit (credit spreads), diminue la valeur des bons de Trésor et cause une récession. Ces chocs ont un effet important sur des mesures d'activité réelle, indices de prix, indicateurs avancés et financiers. Contrairement aux autres études, notre procédure d'identification du choc structurel ne requiert pas de restrictions temporelles entre facteurs financiers et macroéconomiques. De plus, elle donne une interprétation des facteurs sans restreindre l'estimation de ceux-ci.
Dans le troisième article nous étudions la relation entre les représentations VARMA et factorielle des processus vectoriels stochastiques, et proposons une nouvelle classe de modèles VARMA augmentés par facteurs (FAVARMA). Notre point de départ est de constater qu'en général les séries multivariées et facteurs associés ne peuvent simultanément suivre un processus VAR d'ordre fini. Nous montrons que le processus dynamique des facteurs, extraits comme combinaison linéaire des variables observées, est en général un VARMA et non pas un VAR comme c'est supposé ailleurs dans la littérature. Deuxièmement, nous montrons que même si les facteurs suivent un VAR d'ordre fini, cela implique une représentation VARMA pour les séries observées. Alors, nous proposons le cadre d'analyse FAVARMA combinant ces deux méthodes de réduction du nombre de paramètres. Le modèle est appliqué dans deux exercices de prévision en utilisant des données américaines et canadiennes de Boivin, Giannoni et Stevanovic (2010, 2009) respectivement. Les résultats montrent que la partie VARMA aide à mieux prévoir les importants agrégats macroéconomiques relativement aux modèles standards. Finalement, nous estimons les effets de choc monétaire en utilisant les données et le schéma d'identification de Bernanke, Boivin et Eliasz (2005). Notre modèle FAVARMA(2,1) avec six facteurs donne les résultats cohérents et précis des effets et de la transmission monétaire aux États-Unis. Contrairement au modèle FAVAR employé dans l'étude ultérieure où 510 coefficients VAR devaient être estimés, nous produisons les résultats semblables avec seulement 84 paramètres du processus dynamique des facteurs.
L'objectif du quatrième article est d'identifier et mesurer les effets des chocs de crédit au Canada dans un environnement riche en données et en utilisant le modèle FAVARMA structurel. Dans le cadre théorique de l'accélérateur financier développé par Bernanke, Gertler et Gilchrist (1999), nous approximons la prime de financement extérieur par les credit spreads. D'un côté, nous trouvons qu'une augmentation non-anticipée de la prime de financement extérieur aux États-Unis génère une récession significative et persistante au Canada, accompagnée d'une hausse immédiate des credit spreads et taux d'intérêt canadiens. La composante commune semble capturer les dimensions importantes des fluctuations cycliques de l'économie canadienne. L'analyse par décomposition de la variance révèle que ce choc de crédit a un effet important sur différents secteurs d'activité réelle, indices de prix, indicateurs avancés et credit spreads. De l'autre côté, une hausse inattendue de la prime canadienne de financement extérieur ne cause pas d'effet significatif au Canada. Nous montrons que les effets des chocs de crédit au Canada sont essentiellement causés par les conditions globales, approximées ici par le marché américain. Finalement, étant donnée la procédure d'identification des chocs structurels, nous trouvons des facteurs interprétables économiquement.
Le comportement des agents et de l'environnement économiques peut varier à travers le temps (ex. changements de stratégies de la politique monétaire, volatilité de chocs) induisant de l'instabilité des paramètres dans les modèles en forme réduite. Les modèles à paramètres variant dans le temps (TVP) standards supposent traditionnellement les processus stochastiques indépendants pour tous les TVPs. Dans cet article nous montrons que le nombre de sources de variabilité temporelle des coefficients est probablement très petit, et nous produisons la première évidence empirique connue dans les modèles macroéconomiques empiriques. L'approche Factor-TVP, proposée dans Stevanovic (2010), est appliquée dans le cadre d'un modèle VAR standard avec coefficients aléatoires (TVP-VAR). Nous trouvons qu'un seul facteur explique la majorité de la variabilité des coefficients VAR, tandis que les paramètres de la volatilité des chocs varient d'une façon indépendante. Le facteur commun est positivement corrélé avec le taux de chômage. La même analyse est faite avec les données incluant la récente crise financière. La procédure suggère maintenant deux facteurs et le comportement des coefficients présente un changement important depuis 2007. Finalement, la méthode est appliquée à un modèle TVP-FAVAR. Nous trouvons que seulement 5 facteurs dynamiques gouvernent l'instabilité temporelle dans presque 700 coefficients. / As information technology improves, the availability of economic and finance time series grows in terms of both time and cross-section sizes. However, a large amount of information can lead to the curse of dimensionality problem when standard time series tools are used. Since most of these series are highly correlated, at least within some categories, their co-variability pattern and informational content can be approximated by a smaller number of (constructed) variables. A popular way to address this issue is the factor analysis. This framework has received a lot of attention since late 90's and is known today as the large dimensional approximate factor analysis.
Given the availability of data and computational improvements, a number of empirical and theoretical questions arises. What are the effects and transmission of structural shocks in a data-rich environment? Does the information from a large number of economic indicators help in properly identifying the monetary policy shocks with respect to a number of empirical puzzles found using traditional small-scale models? Motivated by the recent financial turmoil, can we identify the financial market shocks and measure their effect on real economy? Can we improve the existing method and incorporate another reduction dimension approach such as the VARMA modeling? Does it help in forecasting macroeconomic aggregates and impulse response analysis? Finally, can we apply the same factor analysis reasoning to the time varying parameters? Is there only a small number of common sources of time instability in the coefficients of empirical macroeconomic models?
This thesis concentrates on the structural factor analysis and VARMA modeling and answers these questions through five articles. The first two articles study the effects of monetary policy and credit shocks in a data-rich environment. The third article proposes a new framework that combines the factor analysis and VARMA modeling, while the fourth article applies this method to measure the effects of credit shocks in Canada. The contribution of the final chapter is to impose the factor structure on the time varying parameters in popular macroeconomic models, and show that there are few sources of this time instability.
The first article analyzes the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada using a
factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. For small open economies
like Canada, uncovering the transmission mechanism of monetary policy using VARs
has proven to be an especially challenging task. Such studies on Canadian data have
often documented the presence of anomalies such as a price, exchange rate, delayed overshooting and uncovered interest rate parity puzzles. We estimate a FAVAR model using large sets of monthly and quarterly macroeconomic time series. We find that the information summarized by the factors is important to properly identify the monetary transmission mechanism and contributes to mitigate the puzzles mentioned above, suggesting that more information does help. Finally, the FAVAR framework allows us to check impulse responses for all series in the informational data set, and thus provides the most comprehensive picture to date of the effect of Canadian monetary policy.
As the recent financial crisis and the ensuing global economic have illustrated, the financial sector plays an important role in generating and propagating shocks to the real economy. Financial variables thus contain information that can predict future economic conditions. In this paper we examine the dynamic effects and the propagation of credit shocks using a large data set of U.S. economic and financial indicators in a structural factor model. Identified credit shocks, interpreted as unexpected deteriorations of the credit market conditions, immediately increase credit spreads, decrease rates on Treasury securities and cause large and persistent downturns in the activity of many economic sectors. Such shocks are found to have important effects on real activity measures, aggregate prices, leading indicators and credit spreads. In contrast to other recent papers, our structural shock identification procedure does not require any timing restrictions between the financial and macroeconomic factors, and yields an interpretation of the estimated factors without relying on a constructed measure of credit market conditions from a large set of individual bond prices and financial series.
In third article, we study the relationship between VARMA and factor representations of a vector stochastic process, and propose a new class of factor-augmented VARMA (FAVARMA) models. We start by observing that in general multivariate series and associated factors do not both follow a finite order VAR process. Indeed, we show that when the factors are obtained as linear combinations of observable series, their dynamic process is generally a VARMA and not a finite-order VAR as usually assumed in the literature. Second, we show that even if the factors follow a finite-order VAR process, this implies a VARMA representation for the observable series. As result, we propose the FAVARMA framework that combines two parsimonious methods to represent the dynamic interactions between a large number of time series: factor analysis and VARMA modeling. We apply our approach in two pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting exercises using large U.S. and Canadian monthly panels taken from Boivin, Giannoni and Stevanovic (2010, 2009) respectively. The results show that VARMA factors help in predicting several key macroeconomic aggregates relative to standard factor forecasting models. Finally, we estimate the effect of monetary policy using the data and the identification scheme as in Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005). We find that impulse responses from a parsimonious 6-factor FAVARMA(2,1) model give an accurate and comprehensive picture of the effect and the transmission of monetary policy in U.S.. To get similar responses from a standard FAVAR model, Akaike information criterion estimates the lag order of 14. Hence, only 84 coefficients governing the factors dynamics need to be estimated in the FAVARMA framework, compared to FAVAR model with 510 VAR parameters.
In fourth article we are interested in identifying and measuring the effects of credit shocks in Canada in a data-rich environment. In order to incorporate information from a large number of economic and financial indicators, we use the structural factor-augmented VARMA model. In the theoretical framework of the financial accelerator, we approximate the external finance premium by credit spreads. On one hand, we find that an unanticipated increase in US external finance premium generates a significant and persistent economic slowdown in Canada; the Canadian external finance premium rises immediately while interest rates and credit measures decline. From the variance decomposition analysis, we observe that the credit shock has an important effect on several real activity measures, price indicators, leading indicators, and credit spreads. On the other hand, an unexpected increase in Canadian external finance premium shows no significant effect in Canada. Indeed, our results suggest that the effects of credit shocks in Canada are essentially caused by the unexpected changes in foreign credit market conditions. Finally, given the identification procedure, we find that our structural factors do have an economic interpretation.
The behavior of economic agents and environment may vary over time (monetary policy strategy shifts, stochastic volatility) implying parameters' instability in reduced-form models. Standard time varying parameter (TVP) models usually assume independent stochastic processes for all TVPs. In the final article, I show that the number of underlying sources of parameters' time variation is likely to be small, and provide empirical evidence on factor structure among TVPs of popular macroeconomic models. To test for the presence of, and estimate low dimension sources of time variation in parameters, I apply the factor time varying parameter (Factor-TVP) model, proposed by Stevanovic (2010), to a standard monetary TVP-VAR model. I find that one factor explains most of the variability in VAR coefficients, while the stochastic volatility parameters vary in the idiosyncratic way. The common factor is highly and positively correlated to the unemployment rate. To incorporate the recent financial crisis, the same exercise is conducted with data updated to 2010Q3. The VAR parameters present an important change after 2007, and the procedure suggests two factors. When applied to a large-dimensional structural factor model, I find that four dynamic factors govern the time instability in almost 700 coefficients.
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Factor models, VARMA processes and parameter instability with applications in macroeconomicsStevanovic, Dalibor 05 1900 (has links)
Avec les avancements de la technologie de l'information, les données temporelles économiques et financières sont de plus en plus disponibles. Par contre, si les techniques standard de l'analyse des séries temporelles sont utilisées, une grande quantité d'information est accompagnée du problème de dimensionnalité. Puisque la majorité des séries d'intérêt sont hautement corrélées, leur dimension peut être réduite en utilisant l'analyse factorielle. Cette technique est de plus en plus populaire en sciences économiques depuis les années 90.
Étant donnée la disponibilité des données et des avancements computationnels, plusieurs nouvelles questions se posent. Quels sont les effets et la transmission des chocs structurels dans un environnement riche en données? Est-ce que l'information contenue dans un grand ensemble d'indicateurs économiques peut aider à mieux identifier les chocs de politique monétaire, à l'égard des problèmes rencontrés dans les applications utilisant des modèles standards? Peut-on identifier les chocs financiers et mesurer leurs effets sur l'économie réelle? Peut-on améliorer la méthode factorielle existante et y incorporer une autre technique de réduction de dimension comme l'analyse VARMA? Est-ce que cela produit de meilleures prévisions des grands agrégats macroéconomiques et aide au niveau de l'analyse par fonctions de réponse impulsionnelles? Finalement, est-ce qu'on peut appliquer l'analyse factorielle au niveau des paramètres aléatoires? Par exemple, est-ce qu'il existe seulement un petit nombre de sources de l'instabilité temporelle des coefficients dans les modèles macroéconomiques empiriques?
Ma thèse, en utilisant l'analyse factorielle structurelle et la modélisation VARMA, répond à ces questions à travers cinq articles. Les deux premiers chapitres étudient les effets des chocs monétaire et financier dans un environnement riche en données. Le troisième article propose une nouvelle méthode en combinant les modèles à facteurs et VARMA. Cette approche est appliquée dans le quatrième article pour mesurer les effets des chocs de crédit au Canada. La contribution du dernier chapitre est d'imposer la structure à facteurs sur les paramètres variant dans le temps et de montrer qu'il existe un petit nombre de sources de cette instabilité.
Le premier article analyse la transmission de la politique monétaire au Canada en utilisant le modèle vectoriel autorégressif augmenté par facteurs (FAVAR). Les études antérieures basées sur les modèles VAR ont trouvé plusieurs anomalies empiriques suite à un choc de la politique monétaire. Nous estimons le modèle FAVAR en utilisant un grand nombre de séries macroéconomiques mensuelles et trimestrielles. Nous trouvons que l'information contenue dans les facteurs est importante pour bien identifier la transmission de la politique monétaire et elle aide à corriger les anomalies empiriques standards. Finalement, le cadre d'analyse FAVAR permet d'obtenir les fonctions de réponse impulsionnelles pour tous les indicateurs dans l'ensemble de données, produisant ainsi l'analyse la plus complète à ce jour des effets de la politique monétaire au Canada.
Motivée par la dernière crise économique, la recherche sur le rôle du secteur financier a repris de l'importance. Dans le deuxième article nous examinons les effets et la propagation des chocs de crédit sur l'économie réelle en utilisant un grand ensemble d'indicateurs économiques et financiers dans le cadre d'un modèle à facteurs structurel. Nous trouvons qu'un choc de crédit augmente immédiatement les diffusions de crédit (credit spreads), diminue la valeur des bons de Trésor et cause une récession. Ces chocs ont un effet important sur des mesures d'activité réelle, indices de prix, indicateurs avancés et financiers. Contrairement aux autres études, notre procédure d'identification du choc structurel ne requiert pas de restrictions temporelles entre facteurs financiers et macroéconomiques. De plus, elle donne une interprétation des facteurs sans restreindre l'estimation de ceux-ci.
Dans le troisième article nous étudions la relation entre les représentations VARMA et factorielle des processus vectoriels stochastiques, et proposons une nouvelle classe de modèles VARMA augmentés par facteurs (FAVARMA). Notre point de départ est de constater qu'en général les séries multivariées et facteurs associés ne peuvent simultanément suivre un processus VAR d'ordre fini. Nous montrons que le processus dynamique des facteurs, extraits comme combinaison linéaire des variables observées, est en général un VARMA et non pas un VAR comme c'est supposé ailleurs dans la littérature. Deuxièmement, nous montrons que même si les facteurs suivent un VAR d'ordre fini, cela implique une représentation VARMA pour les séries observées. Alors, nous proposons le cadre d'analyse FAVARMA combinant ces deux méthodes de réduction du nombre de paramètres. Le modèle est appliqué dans deux exercices de prévision en utilisant des données américaines et canadiennes de Boivin, Giannoni et Stevanovic (2010, 2009) respectivement. Les résultats montrent que la partie VARMA aide à mieux prévoir les importants agrégats macroéconomiques relativement aux modèles standards. Finalement, nous estimons les effets de choc monétaire en utilisant les données et le schéma d'identification de Bernanke, Boivin et Eliasz (2005). Notre modèle FAVARMA(2,1) avec six facteurs donne les résultats cohérents et précis des effets et de la transmission monétaire aux États-Unis. Contrairement au modèle FAVAR employé dans l'étude ultérieure où 510 coefficients VAR devaient être estimés, nous produisons les résultats semblables avec seulement 84 paramètres du processus dynamique des facteurs.
L'objectif du quatrième article est d'identifier et mesurer les effets des chocs de crédit au Canada dans un environnement riche en données et en utilisant le modèle FAVARMA structurel. Dans le cadre théorique de l'accélérateur financier développé par Bernanke, Gertler et Gilchrist (1999), nous approximons la prime de financement extérieur par les credit spreads. D'un côté, nous trouvons qu'une augmentation non-anticipée de la prime de financement extérieur aux États-Unis génère une récession significative et persistante au Canada, accompagnée d'une hausse immédiate des credit spreads et taux d'intérêt canadiens. La composante commune semble capturer les dimensions importantes des fluctuations cycliques de l'économie canadienne. L'analyse par décomposition de la variance révèle que ce choc de crédit a un effet important sur différents secteurs d'activité réelle, indices de prix, indicateurs avancés et credit spreads. De l'autre côté, une hausse inattendue de la prime canadienne de financement extérieur ne cause pas d'effet significatif au Canada. Nous montrons que les effets des chocs de crédit au Canada sont essentiellement causés par les conditions globales, approximées ici par le marché américain. Finalement, étant donnée la procédure d'identification des chocs structurels, nous trouvons des facteurs interprétables économiquement.
Le comportement des agents et de l'environnement économiques peut varier à travers le temps (ex. changements de stratégies de la politique monétaire, volatilité de chocs) induisant de l'instabilité des paramètres dans les modèles en forme réduite. Les modèles à paramètres variant dans le temps (TVP) standards supposent traditionnellement les processus stochastiques indépendants pour tous les TVPs. Dans cet article nous montrons que le nombre de sources de variabilité temporelle des coefficients est probablement très petit, et nous produisons la première évidence empirique connue dans les modèles macroéconomiques empiriques. L'approche Factor-TVP, proposée dans Stevanovic (2010), est appliquée dans le cadre d'un modèle VAR standard avec coefficients aléatoires (TVP-VAR). Nous trouvons qu'un seul facteur explique la majorité de la variabilité des coefficients VAR, tandis que les paramètres de la volatilité des chocs varient d'une façon indépendante. Le facteur commun est positivement corrélé avec le taux de chômage. La même analyse est faite avec les données incluant la récente crise financière. La procédure suggère maintenant deux facteurs et le comportement des coefficients présente un changement important depuis 2007. Finalement, la méthode est appliquée à un modèle TVP-FAVAR. Nous trouvons que seulement 5 facteurs dynamiques gouvernent l'instabilité temporelle dans presque 700 coefficients. / As information technology improves, the availability of economic and finance time series grows in terms of both time and cross-section sizes. However, a large amount of information can lead to the curse of dimensionality problem when standard time series tools are used. Since most of these series are highly correlated, at least within some categories, their co-variability pattern and informational content can be approximated by a smaller number of (constructed) variables. A popular way to address this issue is the factor analysis. This framework has received a lot of attention since late 90's and is known today as the large dimensional approximate factor analysis.
Given the availability of data and computational improvements, a number of empirical and theoretical questions arises. What are the effects and transmission of structural shocks in a data-rich environment? Does the information from a large number of economic indicators help in properly identifying the monetary policy shocks with respect to a number of empirical puzzles found using traditional small-scale models? Motivated by the recent financial turmoil, can we identify the financial market shocks and measure their effect on real economy? Can we improve the existing method and incorporate another reduction dimension approach such as the VARMA modeling? Does it help in forecasting macroeconomic aggregates and impulse response analysis? Finally, can we apply the same factor analysis reasoning to the time varying parameters? Is there only a small number of common sources of time instability in the coefficients of empirical macroeconomic models?
This thesis concentrates on the structural factor analysis and VARMA modeling and answers these questions through five articles. The first two articles study the effects of monetary policy and credit shocks in a data-rich environment. The third article proposes a new framework that combines the factor analysis and VARMA modeling, while the fourth article applies this method to measure the effects of credit shocks in Canada. The contribution of the final chapter is to impose the factor structure on the time varying parameters in popular macroeconomic models, and show that there are few sources of this time instability.
The first article analyzes the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada using a
factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. For small open economies
like Canada, uncovering the transmission mechanism of monetary policy using VARs
has proven to be an especially challenging task. Such studies on Canadian data have
often documented the presence of anomalies such as a price, exchange rate, delayed overshooting and uncovered interest rate parity puzzles. We estimate a FAVAR model using large sets of monthly and quarterly macroeconomic time series. We find that the information summarized by the factors is important to properly identify the monetary transmission mechanism and contributes to mitigate the puzzles mentioned above, suggesting that more information does help. Finally, the FAVAR framework allows us to check impulse responses for all series in the informational data set, and thus provides the most comprehensive picture to date of the effect of Canadian monetary policy.
As the recent financial crisis and the ensuing global economic have illustrated, the financial sector plays an important role in generating and propagating shocks to the real economy. Financial variables thus contain information that can predict future economic conditions. In this paper we examine the dynamic effects and the propagation of credit shocks using a large data set of U.S. economic and financial indicators in a structural factor model. Identified credit shocks, interpreted as unexpected deteriorations of the credit market conditions, immediately increase credit spreads, decrease rates on Treasury securities and cause large and persistent downturns in the activity of many economic sectors. Such shocks are found to have important effects on real activity measures, aggregate prices, leading indicators and credit spreads. In contrast to other recent papers, our structural shock identification procedure does not require any timing restrictions between the financial and macroeconomic factors, and yields an interpretation of the estimated factors without relying on a constructed measure of credit market conditions from a large set of individual bond prices and financial series.
In third article, we study the relationship between VARMA and factor representations of a vector stochastic process, and propose a new class of factor-augmented VARMA (FAVARMA) models. We start by observing that in general multivariate series and associated factors do not both follow a finite order VAR process. Indeed, we show that when the factors are obtained as linear combinations of observable series, their dynamic process is generally a VARMA and not a finite-order VAR as usually assumed in the literature. Second, we show that even if the factors follow a finite-order VAR process, this implies a VARMA representation for the observable series. As result, we propose the FAVARMA framework that combines two parsimonious methods to represent the dynamic interactions between a large number of time series: factor analysis and VARMA modeling. We apply our approach in two pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting exercises using large U.S. and Canadian monthly panels taken from Boivin, Giannoni and Stevanovic (2010, 2009) respectively. The results show that VARMA factors help in predicting several key macroeconomic aggregates relative to standard factor forecasting models. Finally, we estimate the effect of monetary policy using the data and the identification scheme as in Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005). We find that impulse responses from a parsimonious 6-factor FAVARMA(2,1) model give an accurate and comprehensive picture of the effect and the transmission of monetary policy in U.S.. To get similar responses from a standard FAVAR model, Akaike information criterion estimates the lag order of 14. Hence, only 84 coefficients governing the factors dynamics need to be estimated in the FAVARMA framework, compared to FAVAR model with 510 VAR parameters.
In fourth article we are interested in identifying and measuring the effects of credit shocks in Canada in a data-rich environment. In order to incorporate information from a large number of economic and financial indicators, we use the structural factor-augmented VARMA model. In the theoretical framework of the financial accelerator, we approximate the external finance premium by credit spreads. On one hand, we find that an unanticipated increase in US external finance premium generates a significant and persistent economic slowdown in Canada; the Canadian external finance premium rises immediately while interest rates and credit measures decline. From the variance decomposition analysis, we observe that the credit shock has an important effect on several real activity measures, price indicators, leading indicators, and credit spreads. On the other hand, an unexpected increase in Canadian external finance premium shows no significant effect in Canada. Indeed, our results suggest that the effects of credit shocks in Canada are essentially caused by the unexpected changes in foreign credit market conditions. Finally, given the identification procedure, we find that our structural factors do have an economic interpretation.
The behavior of economic agents and environment may vary over time (monetary policy strategy shifts, stochastic volatility) implying parameters' instability in reduced-form models. Standard time varying parameter (TVP) models usually assume independent stochastic processes for all TVPs. In the final article, I show that the number of underlying sources of parameters' time variation is likely to be small, and provide empirical evidence on factor structure among TVPs of popular macroeconomic models. To test for the presence of, and estimate low dimension sources of time variation in parameters, I apply the factor time varying parameter (Factor-TVP) model, proposed by Stevanovic (2010), to a standard monetary TVP-VAR model. I find that one factor explains most of the variability in VAR coefficients, while the stochastic volatility parameters vary in the idiosyncratic way. The common factor is highly and positively correlated to the unemployment rate. To incorporate the recent financial crisis, the same exercise is conducted with data updated to 2010Q3. The VAR parameters present an important change after 2007, and the procedure suggests two factors. When applied to a large-dimensional structural factor model, I find that four dynamic factors govern the time instability in almost 700 coefficients.
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Inteligência computacional aplicada na geração de respostas impulsivas bi-auriculares e em aurilização de salas / Computational intelligence applied to binaural impulse responses generation and room auralizationJosé Francisco Lucio Naranjo 19 May 2014 (has links)
Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro / Neste trabalho é apresentada uma nova abordagem para obter as respostas impulsivas
biauriculares (BIRs) para um sistema de aurilização utilizando um conjunto de
redes neurais artificiais (RNAs). O método proposto é capaz de reconstruir as respostas
impulsivas associadas à cabeça humana (HRIRs) por meio de modificação espectral e de
interpolação espacial. A fim de cobrir todo o espaço auditivo de recepção, sem aumentar
a complexidade da arquitetura da rede, uma estrutura com múltiplas RNAs (conjunto) foi
adotada, onde cada rede opera uma região específica do espaço (gomo). Os três principais
fatores que influenciam na precisão do modelo arquitetura da rede, ângulos de abertura
da área de recepção e atrasos das HRIRs são investigados e uma configuração ideal é
apresentada. O erro de modelagem no domínio da frequência é investigado considerando
a natureza logarítmica da audição humana. Mais ainda, são propostos novos parâmetros
para avaliação do erro, definidos em analogia com alguns dos bem conhecidos parâmetros
de qualidade acústica de salas. Através da metodologia proposta obteve-se um ganho computacional,
em redução do tempo de processamento, de aproximadamente 62% em relação
ao método tradicional de processamento de sinais utilizado para aurilização. A aplicabilidade
do novo método em sistemas de aurilização é reforçada mediante uma análise
comparativa dos resultados, que incluem a geração das BIRs e o cálculo dos parâmetros
acústicos biauriculares (IACF e IACC), os quais mostram erros de magnitudes reduzidas. / This work presents a new approach to obtain the Binaural Impulse Responses
(BIRs) for an auralization system by using a committee of artificial neural networks
(ANNs). The proposed method is capable to reconstruct the desired modified Head
Related Impulse Responses (HRIRs) by means of spectral modification and spatial interpolation.
In order to cover the entire auditory reception space, without increasing the
networks architecture complexity, a structure with multiple RNAs (group) was adopted,
where each network operates in a specific reception region (bud). The three major
parameters that affect the models accuracy the networks architecture, the reception
regions aperture angles and the HRIRs time shifts are investigated and an optimal
setup is presented. The modeling error, in the frequency domain, is investigated considering
the logarithmic nature of the human hearing. Moreover, new parameters are
proposed for error evaluation in the time domain, defined in analogy with some of the
well known acoustical quality parameters in rooms. It was observed that the proposed
methodology obtained a computational gain of approximately 62%, in terms of processing
time reduction, compared to the classical signal processing method used to obtain
auralizations. The applicability of the new method in auralizations systems is validated by
comparative analysis, which includes the BIRs generation and calculation of the binaural
acoustic parameters (IACF and IACC), showing very low magnitude errors.
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Inteligência computacional aplicada na geração de respostas impulsivas bi-auriculares e em aurilização de salas / Computational intelligence applied to binaural impulse responses generation and room auralizationJosé Francisco Lucio Naranjo 19 May 2014 (has links)
Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro / Neste trabalho é apresentada uma nova abordagem para obter as respostas impulsivas
biauriculares (BIRs) para um sistema de aurilização utilizando um conjunto de
redes neurais artificiais (RNAs). O método proposto é capaz de reconstruir as respostas
impulsivas associadas à cabeça humana (HRIRs) por meio de modificação espectral e de
interpolação espacial. A fim de cobrir todo o espaço auditivo de recepção, sem aumentar
a complexidade da arquitetura da rede, uma estrutura com múltiplas RNAs (conjunto) foi
adotada, onde cada rede opera uma região específica do espaço (gomo). Os três principais
fatores que influenciam na precisão do modelo arquitetura da rede, ângulos de abertura
da área de recepção e atrasos das HRIRs são investigados e uma configuração ideal é
apresentada. O erro de modelagem no domínio da frequência é investigado considerando
a natureza logarítmica da audição humana. Mais ainda, são propostos novos parâmetros
para avaliação do erro, definidos em analogia com alguns dos bem conhecidos parâmetros
de qualidade acústica de salas. Através da metodologia proposta obteve-se um ganho computacional,
em redução do tempo de processamento, de aproximadamente 62% em relação
ao método tradicional de processamento de sinais utilizado para aurilização. A aplicabilidade
do novo método em sistemas de aurilização é reforçada mediante uma análise
comparativa dos resultados, que incluem a geração das BIRs e o cálculo dos parâmetros
acústicos biauriculares (IACF e IACC), os quais mostram erros de magnitudes reduzidas. / This work presents a new approach to obtain the Binaural Impulse Responses
(BIRs) for an auralization system by using a committee of artificial neural networks
(ANNs). The proposed method is capable to reconstruct the desired modified Head
Related Impulse Responses (HRIRs) by means of spectral modification and spatial interpolation.
In order to cover the entire auditory reception space, without increasing the
networks architecture complexity, a structure with multiple RNAs (group) was adopted,
where each network operates in a specific reception region (bud). The three major
parameters that affect the models accuracy the networks architecture, the reception
regions aperture angles and the HRIRs time shifts are investigated and an optimal
setup is presented. The modeling error, in the frequency domain, is investigated considering
the logarithmic nature of the human hearing. Moreover, new parameters are
proposed for error evaluation in the time domain, defined in analogy with some of the
well known acoustical quality parameters in rooms. It was observed that the proposed
methodology obtained a computational gain of approximately 62%, in terms of processing
time reduction, compared to the classical signal processing method used to obtain
auralizations. The applicability of the new method in auralizations systems is validated by
comparative analysis, which includes the BIRs generation and calculation of the binaural
acoustic parameters (IACF and IACC), showing very low magnitude errors.
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