Thesis advisor: Geoffrey Sanzenbacher / In recent decades, an increasing number of countries have adopted inflation targeting (IT) as a framework for monetary policy, wherein the country's central bank attempts to steer actual inflation toward a projected target rate. However, the question still remains whether or not IT can work in low-income countries experiencing hyperinflation, such as Venezuela. One of the main challenges facing such countries is the lack of credibility of their monetary institutions. Inflation targeting may help restore this credibility by committing the central bank to a transparent and accountable monetary policy. This paper delves into the theory of inflation targeting, examines the benefits and challenges associated with IT, and discusses the specific challenges that Venezuela may face when adopting IT. The paper also emphasizes the importance of accurate economic data in developing effective monetary policies and argues that forecasting can play a critical role in predicting the effectiveness of IT in Venezuela. Empirical evidence from other countries that have implemented inflation targeting will also be used to provide insights into the potential benefits and challenges of this policy for Venezuela. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2023. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Departmental Honors. / Discipline: Economics.

Inflation targeting is a monetary policy regime, characterized by public announcement of official target ranges or quantitative targets for price level increases and by explicit acknowledgement that low inflation is the most crucial long-run objective of the monetary authorities. There are three prerequisites for inflation targeting: 1)central bank independence,2)having a sole target,3)existence of stable and predictable relationship between monetary policy instruments and inflation.In many developing countries, the use of seigniorage revenues as an important source of financing public debts, the lack of commitment to low inflation as a primary goal by monetary authorities, considerable exchange rate flexibility, lack of substantial operational independence of the central bank or of powerful models to make domestic inflation forecasts hinder the satisfaction of these requirements. This study investigates the applicability of inflation targeting to the Turkish economy. Central bank independence in Turkey has been mainly hindered by "fiscal dominance" through monetization of high budget deficits. In addition, although serious steps have been taken recently under a new law to have an independent central bank, such as formal commitment to the achievement of price stability as the primary objective and the prohibition of credit extension to the government, the central bank does not satisfy independence criteria due to the problems associated with the appointment of the government and the share of the Treasury within the bank. Having a sole inflation target was hindered by the existence of fixed exchange rate system throughout the years. However, in February 2001, Turkey switched to a floating exchange rate regime, which is important for a successful inflation-targeting regime. Having a sole target within the system has also been supported by the new central bank law, which gives priority to price stability and supports any other objective as long as it is consistent with price stability. In this thesis, an empirical investigation has been made in order to assess the statistical readiness of Turkey to satisfy the requirements of inflation-targeting by making use of vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The results suggest that inflation is an inertial phenomenon in Turkey and money, interest rates and nominal exchange rates innovations are not economically and statistically important determinants of prices. Most of the variances in prices are explained by prices themselves. According to the VAR evidence, the direct linkages between monetary policy instruments and inflation do not seem to be strong, stable, and predictable. As a result, while the second requirement of the inflation-targeting regime seems to have been satisfied, there are still problems associated with the central bank independence and the existence of stable and predictable relationship between monetary policy instruments and inflation in Turkey. / Master of Arts

In this thesis I examine the effect of introduction of inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime on the difference between actual inflation and perceived inflation. Perceived inflation is used in the analysis in contrast with previous research, because inflation perceptions are extracted from consumer surveys conducted in individual European Union countries on the whole population sample and thereby enable me to examine the effect that the introduction of inflation targeting has across the whole population. A panel data set of 19 European Union members and 1 candidate, including 7 inflation targeters, is used in the analysis, with monthly information from the period beginning in January 1990 and ending in December 2012. Based on the analysis using fixed-effects model with specific dummy variables to capture the difference-in-differences element, I find that inflation targeters experience lower differences between actual and perceived inflation and that the difference between actual and perceived inflation decreases after the introduction of inflation targeting. Furthermore, various groups divided according to socio-economic characteristics of the consumer survey respondents tend to be affected in a different way by the introduction of inflation targeting, although to a limited extent. JEL...

After the recent financial crisis of 2007, a connection between monetary policy and financial stability has started to be thoroughly investigated. One of the particular areas of this research field deals with the role of various financial variables in the monetary policy rules. The main purpose of this research is to find whether direct incorporation of the financial variables in the monetary policy rule can bring macroeconomic benefits in terms of lower volatility of inflation and output. So far, the main emphasis of the research has been placed on the investigation of the augmented Taylor rules in the context of a closed economy. This thesis sheds light on the performance of the augmented Taylor rules in a small open economy. For this purpose, a New Keynesian DSGE model with two types of financial frictions is constructed. The model is calibrated for the Czech Republic. The thesis provides four conclusions. First, incorporation of the financial variables (asset prices and the volume of credit) in the monetary policy rule is beneficial for macroeconomic stabilization in terms of lower implied volatilities of inflation and output. Second, the usefulness of the augmented monetary policy rule is the most apparent in case of the shock originating abroad. Third, there is a strong link between the financial and the...

This study investigates the implications of financial dollarization for inflation targeting framework. To this end, monetary policy rule, inflation targeting performance and international reserves equations are estimated for twenty four inflation targeting countries with different levels of financial dollarization. The results based on the panel data estimations indicate that monetary policy rule and behavior of accumulating international reserves are affected by the degree of financial dollarization. Furthermore, the study finds that inflation targeting performance is not affected by the level of financial dollarization. Consequently, the empirical analysis suggests that even if financial dollarization does not affect the inflation targeting performance, it does affect the monetary policy rule and the variables to be taken into account to reach the target.

Univ., Diss.--Zugl.: Tilburg, 2005. / Zsfassung in niederländ. Sprache.

Zugl.: Köln, Universiẗat, Diss., 2009.

Master-Arbeit Univ. St. Gallen, 2007.

A assimetria nas preferências dos Bancos Centrais é um assunto que vem sendo muito discutido no meio acadêmico, mas até o momento essa polêmica tem se restringido a economias desenvolvidas como a canadense e inglesa. O que o texto a seguir se propõe é, em parte, tentar trazer essa discussão para o campo dos países emergentes, tomando como centro da análise a economia brasileira. Preferências assimétricas consistem num comportamento por parte da autoridade monetária que atribui perdas diferentes a desvios da taxa de inflação observada em relação à meta definida, que embora sejam de mesma magnitude apresentam sinais opostos. Replicando os testes já usados em outros estudos, o regime de Metas de Inflação é aqui abordado, iniciando sua análise sob uma ótica mais geral e depois o particularizando para a economia brasileira, desde sua concepção (em 1999 após a crise cambial de janeiro desse ano) até os dias atuais. Este comportamento assimétrico parece, ainda, ocasionar um viés inflacionário diferente daquele proposto pelo modelo KPBG (Kydland-Prescott-Barro-Gordon) que surge da ambição do Banco Central em estabelecer uma taxa de desemprego que esteja abaixo da taxa natural, num ambiente no qual as preferências, ao contrário do proposto, são quadráticas. Infelizmente, os dados brasileiros ainda não apontam na direção da assimetria, talvez por causa do tempo de implantação do regime no Brasil, talvez devido às turbulências que a economia brasileira sofreu decorrentes de crises internacionais e de suas conseqüências sobre o desempenho da política de Metas de Inflação que gerou inúmeros insucessos. No entanto, o histórico de hiperinflações e sua influência sobre as expectativas e os comportamentos dos agentes econômicos nos faz suspeitar de que dentro em breve a assimetria será não só detectada em nossa economia como também será fruto de estudos para o desenho e direcionamento da política monetária. / Central Banks preferences asymmetry is a subject that has been discussed for quite some time in academic publications. However, such controversy has been restricted to developed economies, such as the English and Canadian ones, so far. The following text intends to bring about the discussion to emerging countries, using the brazilian economy as the focus of the analysis. Asymmetric preferences can be defined as a particular behaviour of the monetary authorities that weigh differently their losses concerning inflation deviations from its predetermined target that have the same magnitude but different signs. The main tests used in other studies have been repeated here and the inflation target regime is approached, initially from a broader outlook and then specifically to the brazilian case, ever since its conception in 1999 (after the exchange rate crash in the same year) to the present day. The asymmetric behaviour seems to cause an inflationary bias different from the one proposed by the KPBG model (Kydland-Prescott-Barro-Gordon) which derives from the Central Bank ambition to establish an unemployment rate lower than its natural rate, in an environment in which preferences are quadratic. Unfortunately, brazilian data do not suggest asymmetry yet, maybe because the inflation target regime has been installed for too little time, or because of all the turmoil in the brazilian economy in recent international crisis and their consequences on the regime performance, that has been usually compromised. Nevertheless, the history of hyperinflations and their impacts on expectations and the agents behaviour raises suspicions that soon not only will asymmetry be found in our economy but it will also be studied to design monetary policy directives.

A assimetria nas preferências dos Bancos Centrais é um assunto que vem sendo muito discutido no meio acadêmico, mas até o momento essa polêmica tem se restringido a economias desenvolvidas como a canadense e inglesa. O que o texto a seguir se propõe é, em parte, tentar trazer essa discussão para o campo dos países emergentes, tomando como centro da análise a economia brasileira. Preferências assimétricas consistem num comportamento por parte da autoridade monetária que atribui perdas diferentes a desvios da taxa de inflação observada em relação à meta definida, que embora sejam de mesma magnitude apresentam sinais opostos. Replicando os testes já usados em outros estudos, o regime de Metas de Inflação é aqui abordado, iniciando sua análise sob uma ótica mais geral e depois o particularizando para a economia brasileira, desde sua concepção (em 1999 após a crise cambial de janeiro desse ano) até os dias atuais. Este comportamento assimétrico parece, ainda, ocasionar um viés inflacionário diferente daquele proposto pelo modelo KPBG (Kydland-Prescott-Barro-Gordon) que surge da ambição do Banco Central em estabelecer uma taxa de desemprego que esteja abaixo da taxa natural, num ambiente no qual as preferências, ao contrário do proposto, são quadráticas. Infelizmente, os dados brasileiros ainda não apontam na direção da assimetria, talvez por causa do tempo de implantação do regime no Brasil, talvez devido às turbulências que a economia brasileira sofreu decorrentes de crises internacionais e de suas conseqüências sobre o desempenho da política de Metas de Inflação que gerou inúmeros insucessos. No entanto, o histórico de hiperinflações e sua influência sobre as expectativas e os comportamentos dos agentes econômicos nos faz suspeitar de que dentro em breve a assimetria será não só detectada em nossa economia como também será fruto de estudos para o desenho e direcionamento da política monetária. / Central Banks preferences asymmetry is a subject that has been discussed for quite some time in academic publications. However, such controversy has been restricted to developed economies, such as the English and Canadian ones, so far. The following text intends to bring about the discussion to emerging countries, using the brazilian economy as the focus of the analysis. Asymmetric preferences can be defined as a particular behaviour of the monetary authorities that weigh differently their losses concerning inflation deviations from its predetermined target that have the same magnitude but different signs. The main tests used in other studies have been repeated here and the inflation target regime is approached, initially from a broader outlook and then specifically to the brazilian case, ever since its conception in 1999 (after the exchange rate crash in the same year) to the present day. The asymmetric behaviour seems to cause an inflationary bias different from the one proposed by the KPBG model (Kydland-Prescott-Barro-Gordon) which derives from the Central Bank ambition to establish an unemployment rate lower than its natural rate, in an environment in which preferences are quadratic. Unfortunately, brazilian data do not suggest asymmetry yet, maybe because the inflation target regime has been installed for too little time, or because of all the turmoil in the brazilian economy in recent international crisis and their consequences on the regime performance, that has been usually compromised. Nevertheless, the history of hyperinflations and their impacts on expectations and the agents behaviour raises suspicions that soon not only will asymmetry be found in our economy but it will also be studied to design monetary policy directives.