China’s goal of eventually having the renminbi (RMB) be “fully convertible” necessarily requires that its capital account be fully liberated; this paper investigates the on-going changes of the implemented capital controls by China and China’s progress on liberalizing the country’s capital account. The first portion of the paper studies deviations of the covered interest parity, a common measure of capital controls. Econometrical analysis provides evidence for significant and persistent RMB/USD interest rate differentials, calculated from monthly data of 1-month yields for the sample period of 1999 to 2014. At the same time, evidence for cointegration between the onshore and offshore yield suggests that capital flows are not fully restrictive in the long run. The second portion of the paper analyzes constructed de jure capital control indices based on IMF’s AREAER documents following Chen and Qian (2015), and actual capital account flows based on China’s Balance of Payments. The constructed de jure indices quantify the intensity of changes of capital controls, capturing the gradualist style that China adopts in implementing its policies. The index reveals that China has been increasing its pace of capital account liberalization in the recent years compared to the past, and in particular, prioritizes liberalizing controls on outward FDI flows and equity securities inflows. The constructed de jure indices and the respective flows for FDI and equity securities are found to be highly correlated, implying that flows have been responsive to changes in the controls. It also indicates that prior to the restriction lift offs, the capital controls had been relatively effective.

This dissertation spans topics related to global trade, oil prices, optimum currency areas, the eurozone, monetary independence, capital controls and the international monetary policy trilemma. It consists of four chapters and three essays. Chapter one provides a brief summary of all three essays. Chapter two investigates the impact of oil prices on global trade. It is concluded that when oil prices increase, countries start trading relatively more with their neighbors. As an application this chapter provides a new estimate of the eurozone effect on trade. Chapter three continues to study the eurozone and asks whether it is an optimum currency area using the member countries’ desired monetary policies. It is concluded that Greece, Spain, and Ireland have desired policies that are the least compatible with the common euro policy and are therefore the least likely to have formed an optimum currency area with the euro. Chapter four provides a new methodology in testing the international trilemma hypothesis. It is concluded that the trilemma holds in the context of the Asian countries.

A common finding in the international trade literature is that economic integration leads to export diversification. By documenting a positive link between joining the European Economic and Monetary Union and bilateral export concentration, the leading essay shows that this is not always the case. Using a panel data approach, I find that exports between the Eurozone members are on average more concentrated than those among countries which do not share the euro. Central to this outcome is that some economic integration agreements, such as the European Economic and Monetary Union, may lead to a drop in not only trade but horizontal FDI costs as well. Theoretically, the results can be explained by the substitutability between exporting and horizontal FDI within a two-sector, two-firm type model which allows for sectoral trade cost heterogeneity. Since the early 1970s, a series of international environmental agreements (IEAs) were signed, ratified, and enforced throughout the developed and developing nations. Regarding IEAs as potential barriers to trade, the second essay seeks to quantify their impact on industry-level exports by using a gravity regression approach. I proceed by classifying industries into dirty and clean based on their average emission intensities and find that the ratification of IEAs is associated with a significant reduction in export flows. The decrease is more pronounced for industries which are classified as dirty or for those which are characterized by high emission intensities per unit of output. Additionally, climate change IEAs bring about a compositional shift towards cleaner exports. Lastly, climate change and acid rain IEAs are found to engender leakage effects. No such evidence is recovered for ozone depletion accords. The third essay adds to the literature on the Kyoto protocol and the carbon content of bilateral trade. It does so by analyzing the effect of ratifying the Kyoto protocol on exports, the carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity of exports, and the CO2 emissions embodied in exports within a novel dataset of 149 countries. For parties that took on binding emission caps, the ratification of Kyoto protocol leads to (i) lower CO2 emissions embodied in exports, (ii) lower CO2 emission intensities, but (iii) higher overall exports. For the same group of countries, a year-by-year analysis underlines a permanent decline in both the CO2 emission intensity and the CO2 content of their exports. Furthermore, the analysis also points out to a short-run decline in exports. In the long run, however, exports are estimated to recover. Also, the commitment type or whether a party was designated as a transition economy at the time of ratification are found to shape the above three outcomes.

As a post-Soviet economy, Ukraine has inherited substantial production assets and qualified personnel. However, the economy was dominated by large-scale enterprises designed for much bigger markets. After the collapse of the Soviet Union Ukrainian firms faced lack of planning, breaks in contacts with their former suppliers and customers, and distortion of prices. There was a clear need in restructuring of the entire economy. Restructuring included splitting firms into smaller parts and privatization. The first phase of transition was completed by 2000 when the output grew for the first time after a long recession in nineties, and most firms became private property. In this work I explore trends in geographic and industrial concentration of Ukrainian manufacturing firms over the period of 2001 to 2005. I found that this period was characterized by relocation of firms between sectors and between regions, as well as by an increase in economic concentration of industries. The speed of adjustment was different for various sectors and even for different industries within manufacturing. Even though the economy is still dominated by large firms, the average firm size decreases due to a rapid growth in the number of new firms. Geographically, manufacturing tends to increasingly concentrate mostly around a few big cities, apparently at the expense of other regions. I also estimate the external scale effects and compare them with Western studies. In particular I focus on machinery and high tech. I found strong localization and urbanization effects in both industry groups. An important contribution of this work is the analysis of the effect of ownership structure on agglomeration economies. I found that private firms tend to enjoy external scale effects to a greater extent than state owned, and foreign owned firms appear to be the most efficient in extracting benefits form agglomeration. Aggregation of the data may distort the estimates of agglomeration effects. I show that most effects take place at the nearest neighborhoods. When the physical distance between firms increases agglomeration effects attenuate quickly. However, localization effects reveal themselves at different level of industrial aggregation for various industries. This may reflect more complicated relationships within sectors and requires further analysis.

A country’s economy is becoming more and more dynamic and complicated in its scale and mobility. So, the concerns of exchange rate economics have become more popular. My research interest is in international economics with its major factor, exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables. Chapter 1 presents a brief introduction of the three studies. Chapter Two investigate the role of exchange rate changes with particular attention to international capital flows. With liberalization of capital movements, international capital movements became free and unrestricted in many emerging market economies as well as developed countries. Using a Vector Auto-regressive (VAR) model for a small open economy in which the endogeneity of exchange rate changes is fully taken into account, I find that capital movements are more likely to be a cause of output fluctuations and current account deficits in developing countries than a channel of equilibrium changes. I also find that domestic currency depreciation is far more likely to be contractionary on domestic output in developing countries than in developed countries. Interestingly, the trade balance improves after depreciation regardless of its output consequence. These findings suggest that there are important differences between developed and developing economies in the way capital movements and exchange rate changes affect and are affected. Chapter Three demonstrates the dynamic relationship between the current account and the real exchange rate in response to permanent and temporary shocks using structural VAR models for seven developed countries and five developing countries. Special focus is given to the issue of the stationarity of the current account. Capital flows are also included to capture external shocks as well as potential structural breaks due to financial liberalization. I find that the results for unit root tests for the current account are ambiguous. By testing two different VAR models, each taking an opposing stance on the stationarity of the current account, I conclude that responses based on a stationary current account are a better fit to the current theoretical view than those based on a nonstationary current account process. Additionally, the real exchange rate and the current account are positively correlated under a permanent shock while two variables are negatively correlated under a monetary shock. I also find that real exchange rate is an endogenous variable, which is not closely related to the temporary factors that affect the current account in the short run. Chapter Four examines the long-run mean reverting behavior of the real exchange rates with its six different definitions for 27 economies using annual data from 1974 to 2003. I find that Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) holds better, and the half-life of the real exchange rates is shorter when the wholesale price index, rather than consumer price index, is used as price level measure. Somewhat surprisingly, there is no evidence that PPP holds better with trade-weighted real exchange rates than with bilateral ones regardless of the price index used. Strong evidence for PPP emerges only with the use of Im, Pesaran, and Shin (2003) panel tests but not with the Levine, Lin, and Chu (2002).

This dissertation consists of three essays that examine the impact of various trade policies on the extensive (new trading relationships) and intensive (increase in trade of existing relationships) margins of trade, whereas past studies have been limited to aggregate trade flows. An inquiry into the extensive and intensive margins of trade reveals that total aggregate trade masks the heterogeneous trade creating effect of policy variables. Furthermore, this dissertation also takes into account the econometric issues that have plagued the traditional empirical model that analyzes the impact of these policies on trade. The first chapter examines the impact of hosting and bidding for mega-events on exports. Rose & Spiegel (2011b) find that hosts and unsuccessful bidders (candidates) experience a similar positive impact on total aggregate exports. They attribute the Olympic effect to the signal a country sends when bidding to host the games. This chapter inquires whether this Olympic signal leads to new trading relationships or an increase in trade in existing relationships. The results indicate that only hosts (not candidates) experience a permanent increase in exports at the intensive margin. While hosting the Olympics is consistently correlated with a permanent deepening of existing trade relationships, it is at the expense of the number of trading relationships. The second chapter examines the impact of the World Trade Organization (WTO) membership on the extensive and intensive margin of imports. Accounting for several estimation issues that have plagued the literature, results indicate that the benefit of the WTO is realized entirely through the extensive margin. The results are in line with the literature that attributes WTO to reducing market uncertainty through tariff binds rather than reduction, thus increasing entry in the export market even when the applied protection is unchanged. The third chapter examines the impact of fiscal episodes (fiscal stimuli and consolidation) on the extensive and intensive margins of exports. The results indicate that fiscal consolidation leads to an increase in total exports, while a fiscal stimulus leads to a decrease in total exports. Furthermore, fiscal consolidation leads to an increase in exports solely through the extensive margin.

This thesis consists in a collection of research works dealing with various aspects of International Economics. More precisely, we focus on three main themes: (i) the existence of a world business cycle and the implications thereof, (ii) the likelihood of asymmetric shocks in the Euro Zone resulting from fluctuations in the euro exchange rate because of differences in sector specialization patterns and some consequences of such shocks, and (iii) the relationship between trade openness and growth influence of the sector specialization structure on that relationship. Regarding the approach pursued to tackle these problems, we have chosen to strictly remain within the boundaries of empirical (macro)economics - that is, applied econometrics. Though we systematically provide theoretical models to back up our empirical approach, our only real concern is to look at the stories the data can (or cannot) tell us. As to the econometric methodology, we will restrict ourselves to the use of panel data analysis. The large spectrum of techniques available within the panel framework allows us to utilize, for each of the problems at hand, the most suitable approach (or what we think it is).

For the average Chinese citizen, waking up under a sky blanketed with smog is no longer a surprise: since the rise of industrial capitalism, changes in trade policy, consumer preferences and the overall magnitude of industry have resulted in crippling levels of ambient air pollution. Though growth in the manufacturing realm was prevalent in the post-Mao Industrial Revolution era, China’s accession to the World Trade Organization resulted in the proliferation of trade on a grand scale, and due to low manufacturing and production costs, resulted in China assuming its seat in the global market. Unfortunately, this economic success was accompanied by an unhealthy increase in ambient air pollution levels, and has since posed a significant threat to public welfare. This study surveys the impact of different aspects of trade volumes in the 31 provinces of China on the state of ambient air pollution. Findings include that as a result of increased trade due to China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, the volume of sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions from provincial industries is positively correlated with the exports of products manufactured in industrial operating units within China. This study also finds a positive relationship between the imports of products manufactured outside of China, as there is an increase in pollution from road dust due to traveling vehicles with these imported products. Though exports and imports of goods produced in foreign nations contribute significantly to the emissions patterns in Chinese provinces, an analysis of the data indicates that there is a stronger correlation between domestically produced units that are traded, as opposed to those units that are produced outside of the country.

Why did China choose certain policy over others that would achieve similar impact? Because China has a significant presence in the modern international community, it is difficult yet critical to understand the policy implications of the Chinese government under its unique political and socioeconomic context. This thesis shows the impact of a specific “price floor” policy China chose to employ in its oil and gasoline market, and identifies the factors concerning the Chinese regime that it took into consideration in the decision making process, through analysing data and official statements released by the government. After different parties affected by this policy are recognized, this thesis investigate how those impacts relate back to the Chinese government’s long-term agenda of energy security and environmental protection.

The following dissertation contains two distinct empirical essays which contribute to the overall field of Financial Economics. Chapter 1, entitled “Financial Inclusion and Economic Development in OIC Member Countries,” examines whether the presence of Islamic finance promotes development and alleviates poverty. To do so, we estimate the influence of financial inclusion variables on development and poverty variables for OIC countries. Using data from the World Bank, we use dynamic panel analysis using methodology similar to Beck et al (2000) to study the effects of financial inclusion on economic development and use simple cross-sectional analysis similar to Beck et al (2004) to study the effects on poverty alleviation. We find that the countries with Islamic finance tend to outperform the rest of the world. We believe that the ability of financial institutions offering Shari’a compliant services to bring otherwise excluded people under the financial system plays a major role in increased development and reduced poverty in those countries. The results support our view that financial inclusion is causing development. Chapter 2 entitled, “Asymmetric Market Reactions to the 2007-08 Financial Crisis: From Wall Street to Main Street,” examines the impact of significant news events during the 2007 – 2008 financial crisis on the abnormal stock returns for portfolios of financial and real sector firms. We recognize 17 significant news events from 2007 and 2008 and create equity portfolios using daily CRSP data from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2009. We estimate event announcement interval abnormal returns in the context of an asset pricing model similar to Fama and French (1993) and Carhart (1997). We document significant negative abnormal returns for the portfolio of non-financial firms, and the smallest firms exhibit the largest negative abnormal returns, an indication of a significant spillover of financial market news to real sector stock returns. Smaller financial firms also exhibit negative abnormal event returns, and these results are driven by broker-dealer, depository, holding-investment, and real estate firms. The results provide new evidence regarding the incorporation of news events into asset prices during financial crises.