This thesis investigates the engineering economics of interventions to reduce consumer inconvenience due to unreliable electricity supply in rural India. The work introduces and applies a novel approach to estimate interruption costs as loss in consumer surplus due to restricted consumption of electricity services. Chapter 2 reports an assessment that compares grid extension with distributed generation (DG) alternatives, based on the subsidies they will necessitate, and costs of service interruptions that are appropriate in the rural Indian context. Despite the inclusion of interruption costs, standalone DG does not appear to be competitive with grid extension at distances of less than 17 km. However, backing up unreliable grid service with local DG plants is attractive when reliability is very poor, even in previously electrified villages. Introduction of energy efficient lighting changes these economics, and the threshold for acceptable grid unreliability significantly reduces. Chapter 3 analyzes supply rostering (alternatively, “load shedding”) in metropolitan, small town and rural feeders in and around Bangalore city. The inequity in load shedding is analyzed through transfers due to differential tariffs between the urban and rural residential consumers, and the relief provided to BESCOM, through avoided procurement of additional supply from generators, because rural and small town feeders are load shed higher than Bangalore city. The values of the load shedding transfers are estimated to be in the range of Rs. 120-380/consumer-year from the rural consumers, and Rs. 220- 370/consumer-year from the small town consumers. The metropolitan consumers are found to be net beneficiaries. The viability of using smart meters to provide current limited but uninterrupted supply is investigated as one alternative to outright blackouts. Chapter 4 develops a broader theoretical framework that can be used to model consumer demand for electricity services with unreliable supply and adaptation. Demand for energy ‘services’ is modeled by incorporating time of use, duration and deferability. Supply reliability is disaggregated into its constituent dimensions– mean and variance of supply availability in times of high demand, and supply predictability, and their respective impacts on consumer welfare are discussed. Primary data collected from Karnataka inform the discussion, especially with backup adoption. New consumer-oriented reliability indices are proposed.

<p>U disertaciji je predstavljen pristup zasnovan na algoritmu mešovitog celobrojnog linearnog programiranja (MILP) za određivanje optimalnog broja, tipa i lokacije uređaja za automatizaciju distributivne mreže. Ugradnja različitih tipova nove opreme (daljinski kontrolisani reklozeri, sekcioneri i indikatori prolaska struje kvara) kao i relokacija postojeće opreme su istovremeno razmatrani. Prilikom određivanja optimalnog scenarija za automatizaciju, predloženi pristup uvažava troškove ispada potrošača/proizvođača usled trenutnih, kratkotrajnih i dugotrajnih ispada, najčešće korišćene pokazatelje pouzdanosti (SAIFI, SAIDI, MAIFI, i ASIDI) kao i troškove distributivnog preduzeća, asocirane uređajima za automatizaciju i ekipama koje su uključene u proces rešavanja prekida napajanja.<br />Dakle, osnovni cilj ove disertacije je, da se napravi model zasnovan na mešovitom celobrojnom linearnom programiranju koji će omogućiti određivanje najboljeg scenarija za automatizaciju distributivne mreže u slučajevima kada se ocena kvaliteta isporuke definiše preko pokazatelja pouzdanosti, preko troškova usled prekida napajanja ili kombinacijom ova dva pokazatelja.</p> / <p>The dissertation presents a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) based approach for determining the optimal number, type and location of automation devices to be installed in the network by considering different types of devices simultaneously (remotely controlled circuit breakers/reclosers, sectionalizing switches, remotely supervised fault passage indicators). Simultaneously, it determines the new (optimal) locations of the automation devices that already exist in the network. In determining the most effective network automation scenario, the proposed approach takes into account the outage cost of consumers/producers due to momentary, short-term, and long-term interruptions, the commonly used network reliability indices (SAIFI, SAIDI, MAIFI, and ASIDI) as well as the cost of automation devices and the cost of crews. It provides the best network automation scenario in distribution systems if the network reliability indices are used for measuring the distribution system reliability, if cost of interruptions is defined to all consumers/producers, and if both approaches (criteria) are used.</p>

Society relies more and more on a continuous supply of electricity. However, while underinvestments in reliability lead to an unacceptable number of power interruptions, overinvestments result in too high costs for society. To give incentives for a socioeconomically optimal level of reliability, quality regulations have been adopted in many European countries. These quality regulations imply new financial risks for the distribution system operator (DSO) since poor reliability can reduce the allowed revenue for the DSO and compensation may have to be paid to affected customers.This thesis develops a method for evaluating the incentives for reliability investments implied by different quality regulation designs. The method can be used to investigate whether socioeconomically beneficial projects are also beneficial for a profit-maximizing DSO subject to a particular quality regulation design. To investigate which reinvestment projects are preferable for society and a DSO, risk-based methods are developed. With these methods, the probability of power interruptions and the consequences of these can be simulated. The consequences of interruptions for the DSO will to a large extent depend on the quality regulation. The consequences for the customers, and hence also society, will depend on factors such as the interruption duration and time of occurrence. The proposed risk-based methods consider extreme outage events in the risk assessments by incorporating the impact of severe weather, estimating the full probability distribution of the total reliability cost, and formulating a risk-averse strategy. Results from case studies performed show that quality regulation design has a significant impact on reinvestment project profitability for a DSO. In order to adequately capture the financial risk that the DSO is exposed to, detailed risk-based methods, such as the ones developed in this thesis, are needed. Furthermore, when making investment decisions, a risk-averse strategy may clarify the benefits or drawbacks of a project that are hard to discover by looking only at the expected net present value. / QC 20110530