This thesis contributes to the empirical literature about how uncertainty affects firm-level investment behavior and capital accumulation using a structural econometric approach. Chapter 2 surveys the literature and highlights that there are two key channels through which uncertainty may affect investment decisions. One reflects the non-linearity of operating profits in stochastic demand or productivity parameters, summarized as the Hartman-Abel-Caballero (HAC) effect. Another reflects frictions in capital adjustment, summarized by different forms of capital adjustment costs: partial irreversibility, a fixed cost of undertaking any investment and quadratic adjustment costs. Chapter 3 presents simulation evidence about the effects of uncertainty on investment dynamics and capital accumulation through different forms of adjustment costs. Using the Method of Simulated Moments, Chapters 4 and 5 estimate fully parametric structural investment models, for panels of Brazilian and UK manufacturing firms, respectively. Chapter 4 investigates the effects of reducing capital adjustment costs. Counterfactual simulations indicate that investment would be much more responsive to new information about profitability if firms in Brazil faced a lower level of adjustment costs. A lower level of adjustment costs would also induce firms to operate with substantially higher capital stocks. Both these effects are mainly due to the importance of the estimated quadratic adjustment costs. Chapter 5 then investigates the effects of changing the level of uncertainty. The estimated investment models predict a small effect of uncertainty on investment dynamics in the short-run, and a negative and potentially large effect of uncertainty on capital accumulation in the long-run. The long-run effect of uncertainty operates through the negative effect of quadratic adjustment costs in the baseline model, or through a richer combination of effects in an extended model that allows discount rates to vary with the level of uncertainty.

The paper seeks to contribute to the empirical analysis of financial uncertainty and investment from a Post Keynesian perspective. The paper uses the volatility of the exchange rate, the volatility of the stock market index, and the real gold price as indicators for financial uncertainty. An increase in the volatility of a variable is a sufficient, but not a necessary condition for an increase in uncertainty (regarding this variable). The effects of changes in uncertainty on investment are investigated econometrically for the USA, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, and France. Financial uncertainty has significant negative effects in the USA and the Netherlands. (author´s abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Bakgrund: År 2016 röstade Storbritannien för ett utträde ur Europeiska unionen. Detta skapade en osäkerhet kring många olika frågor, inte minst hos företagen. Eftersom London är ett av de största finansiella centrumen i världen finns frågor hur de finansiella företagen kommer påverkas av Brexit, däribland företag inom FinTech-branschen.  Hur kommer de påverkas när Storbritannien nu har röstat för ett utträde ur Europeiska unionen? Syfte: Syftet med denna studie är att belysa Brexits konsekvenser för internationella svenska företag och framtida förutsättningarna för svenska FinTech-företag i Storbritannien. Vidare syftar studien till att utreda vilka implikationer eller möjligheter Brexit har på svenska företag och FinTech i Stockholm. Metod: En kvalitativ metod har använts där flera intervjuer har genomförts. Vidare har fallstudie genomförts med en induktiv ansats för att kunna dra slutsatser utifrån de intervjuer som har genomförts.  Slutsats: Det finns risk att svenska FinTech-företag flyttar från Storbritannien till andra länder efter Brexit, dock kommer de flesta företag troligtvis att stanna kvar i Storbritannien. En av de viktigaste faktorerna som kan avgöra ifall företagen flyttar är osäkerhet samt hur avtal utformas mellan Storbritannien och EU. Om FinTech-företagen väljer att flytta är alternativen finansiella marknader inom EU, men också utanför EU där bland annat USA, Hong Kong och Singapore är alternativ. Tillslut är Stockholm inte den mest attraktiva marknaden för svenska FinTech-företag efter Brexit. Andra städer inom Europa är mer attraktiva för företagen där Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris samt till viss del Dublin och Berlin är bättre alternativ för dessa företag. / Background: The year 2016 Great Britain voted to exit the European Union. This caused uncertainty around many questions, which also included the companies. Moreover, since London is one of the biggest financial centres in the world there are questions about how the financial companies will be affected by Brexit, including FinTech companies. How will they be affected now when Great Britain voted for a Brexit?  Purpose: The purpose of this study is to highlight the consequences of Brexit for international Swedish companies and future prerequisites for Swedish FinTech companies in Great Britain. Furthermore, this study aims to investigate which implications or opportunities Brexit has on Swedish companies and FinTech in Stockholm.  Method: This is a qualitative case study where several interviews have been conducted with both organisations and companies. Furthermore, the study is inductive to be able to draw conclusions from the interviews. Conclusion: There is a risk that Swedish companies move from Great Britain to other countries because of Brexit, however, most companies will probably stay in Great Britain. One of the most important factors that can decide whether the companies move is uncertainty and how deals between Great Britain and European Union unfold. The alternatives if FinTech companies decide to move are financial markets within the EU, but also outside EU where USA, Hong Kong and Singapore are some alternatives. Finally, Stockholm is not the most attractive market for Swedish FinTech companies after Brexit. There are other cities within EU that are more attractive where Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris and to some extent Dublin and Berlin are better alternatives for these companies.