The question for this thesis is whether the static and the dynamic theory of international trade stability holds in reality in Bangladesh.

This study analyses how the real effective exchange rate affected the current account in Argentina between the years 1978 and 2006 divided into three sub-periods. Theory concerning the subject, the so called J-curve that the current account should immediately be reduced after a devaluation, thereafter recovering and in the end becoming larger than it was initially. This study has been unable find all the three stages of the J-curve, at best only the first two were found. In the first two periods – 1978 to 1990 and 1991 to 2000 – a real depreciation seemed to have an instant negative impact on the current account and then a positive trend could be seen. For the third sub-period of 2001 – 2006, there was even less evidence supporting a J-curve, although the small number of observations may be driving this results.

The type of exchange rate regime a country should adopt and ideal level of the currency have has been an ongoing debate amongst academics, politician and trade unionists. The South African economic debate is currently dominated by debates on the appropriate level of the exchange rate of the rand. With the high volatility of the rand and the rapid appreciation of the rand in 2010 there have been calls for various sectors for government to intervene and devalue the rand. The premise is that devaluation will help counter the volatility of the rand and help stimulate South Africa’s export sector thereby resulting in an improvement of the trade balance. The aim of this research was to determine if there is a relationship between South Africa’s exchange rate and the trade balance and to determine if devaluation of the rand would have a positive influence on the trade balance. Furthermore the extent to which the trade balance would follow the J-Curve effect following devaluation was investigated. Using the long term trade balance model and Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model between the analyses was done between South Africa and the BRIC countries. The conclusion reached was that a devaluation of the rand would not necessarily lead to a long term improvement of the trade balance and no evidence of the J-Curve effect was found. Copyright / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Many older patients are not being aggressively managed for hypertension. Healthcare providers are often hesitant to start or even aggressively titrate antihypertensive medication, especially in the aged. Multiple studies have demonstrated that morbidity and mortality can be significantly reduced by appropriate intervention in all age groups. There are some clinical situations, however, where the provider must approach cautiously, such as in patients with a wide pulse pressure or those with a propensity toward adverse reactions. The data are clear that in the United States, undertreatment, rather than overtreatment, appears to be the issue. This article reviews studies that support the aggressive treatment of hypertension. The nuances of aging, which often influence the healthcare provider's treatment decisions, are also discussed. Suggestions for reasonable approaches to these difficult cases will be considered.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine how a depreciation in the exchange rate affects the trade balance in an economy over time. The outcomes of a depreciation are possible to analyze through the J-curve phenomenon that shows the relation between the exchange rate and the trade balance both in the short-run and the long-run. The data used in this thesis cover 39 countries and their quarterly changes in exchange rate between 1982 and 2005. The largest depreciation for each country during these years was detected and is the base for this research. In this thesis, focus is on the trade ratio rather than the trade balance for empirical purposes. The relation between the largest depreciations and its effect on the trade ratio are examined in two sets of regressions. The results show no evidence of a J-curve in neither one of the sets of regressions, even though the trade ratio is positively affected by the depreciation. When testing only for significantly large depreciations in the exchange rate the affect on the trade ratio is stronger, all else equal. According to the findings in this thesis, a depreciation in the real effective exchange rate causes the trade ratio to increase immediately and then decrease over time. The conclusion is that the findings are not in line with the J-curve phenomenon tested for; however, they support standard trade theory with the Marshall-Lerner condition being met i.e. a depreciation in the exchange rate will affect the trade balance positively.

This study analyzes the J-curve effect for Turkey&rsquo / s bilateral trade with her three main trading partners / Germany, USA and Italy, for consumption, capital and intermediate goods. The bounds test is used to test for cointegration among the trade balance, the real bilateral exchange rate, the real domestic income and the real foreign income. The results show that the real exchange rate is not a significant determinant of trade in the short run. In the long run, it is significant only for trade with USA in consumption goods. Moreover, J-curve does not exist for Turkey&rsquo / s bilateral trade with Germany, USA, and Italy in consumption, capital and intermediate goods. The results support existence of a link between the bilateral trade balances and the real domestic income both in the short run and the long run.

This thesis examines the relationship between the bilateral real exchange rate and the trade balances of 20 industries in which majority of the trade between Turkey and her leading partner Germany is carried out, both for the short and long run, in search of the existence of any J-curve effect. Using quarterly data over the period 1989:1-2011:3, the relationship is analyzed empirically through the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction modeling. The findings show that, although the pattern created by a depreciation does not follow the compl ete J curve in any of the industries, still the exchange rate as well as foreign and domestic real incomes are effective determinants of bilateral trade balance between Turkey and Germany in majority of the cases both in the short and in the long run. Moreover, this thesis provides strong support for the assertion that at the disaggregate level industries exhibit unique and distinct trade balance responses to exchange rate fluctuations, by showing that these responses vary significantly across different sectors both in the short and long run.

<p>The purpose of this thesis is to examine how a depreciation in the exchange rate affects the trade balance in an economy over time. The outcomes of a depreciation are possible to analyze through the J-curve phenomenon that shows the relation between the exchange rate and the trade balance both in the short-run and the long-run. The data used in this thesis cover 39 countries and their quarterly changes in exchange rate between 1982 and 2005. The largest depreciation for each country during these years was detected and is the base for this research. In this thesis, focus is on the trade ratio rather than the trade balance for empirical purposes. The relation between the largest depreciations and its effect on the trade ratio are examined in two sets of regressions. The results show no evidence of a J-curve in neither one of the sets of regressions, even though the trade ratio is positively affected by the depreciation. When testing only for significantly large depreciations in the exchange rate the affect on the trade ratio is stronger, all else equal. According to the findings in this thesis, a depreciation in the real effective exchange rate causes the trade ratio to increase immediately and then decrease over time. The conclusion is that the findings are not in line with the J-curve phenomenon tested for; however, they support standard trade theory with the Marshall-Lerner condition being met i.e. a depreciation in the exchange rate will affect the trade balance positively.</p>

nÃo hà / The aim of this work is investigate the presence of Marshal-Lerner condition (CML) and the J curve for categories of use of goods and services. To do this, will be used two methodologies: a Johansenâs cointegration test, to analyze the long run effects, and an Impulse Response Function, to obtain the short run impacts. The novelty of this work is the concern with sectorial analyses of trade balance and their impacts due changes in exchange rates. Four categories will be studied: durable goods, non-durable goods, intermediate goods and capital goods. The results appointed that the CML is accepted for all goods. About the J curve, only durable and non-durable goods showed adjustment problems. / Este trabalho tem o objetivo de investigar a presenÃa da condiÃÃo de Marshall-Lerner (CML) e da curva J para as categorias de uso dos bens e serviÃos. Para tanto, foi realizado um teste de cointegraÃÃo de Johansen com fito de verificar a existÃncia de relaÃÃes de longo prazo positivas sobre a balanÃa comercial desses bens na presenÃa de uma desvalorizaÃÃo cambial. Para a curva J, foi estimado as funÃÃes impulso resposta e se valeu das relaÃÃes de curto prazo entre as variÃveis. A grande novidade deste trabalho està na consideraÃÃo de impactos setoriais sobre a balanÃa comercial devido a variaÃÃes na taxa de cÃmbio real regional. Quatro categorias de bens foram analisadas segundo sua utilizaÃÃo: bens de consumo durÃvel, bens de consumo nÃo durÃvel, bens intermediÃrios e bens de capital. Dos resultados, foi constatado que a CML à vÃlida para todos os tipos de bens. E a curva J à verificada para bens de consumo durÃvel e nÃo durÃvel.

This paper uses a structural gravity approach, specifying currency movements as trade cost component to derive an empirical trade balance model, which incorporates multilateral resistance terms and accounts for the cross-country variation in the exchange rate pass-through into import and export prices. The model is estimated using quarterly bilateral trade flows between 47 countries over the period 2010Q1-2017Q2, disaggregated into 97 commodity groups. Our results support the existence of an "aggregate" J-curve, pooled over commodity groups; at the same time they point to considerable heterogeneity in the trade balance dynamics across industries below the surface of aggregate data. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series