Trafikverket, är den statliga verksamhet som har hand om alla Sveriges vägar och järnvägar har den så kallade nollvisionen som ett huvudmål. Tanken bakom nollvisionen är att de som använder vägarna skall vara säkra och inte komma till skada. En del av uppfyllandet av detta mål är att Trafikverket ger ut korttidsprognoser för väglag och körförhållande. I nuläget så används ett mycket manuellt systemet som heter NTIS, men man håller på att utveckla det nya automatiska systemet RCC som skall kunna ta fram korttidsprognoser baserat på olika former av data, t.ex. data från väderstationer. Syftet med denna studie är att utvärdera hur väl de två olika systemen utför en korttidsprognos och jämföra de mot varandra, samt verkligheten. Denna studie gjordes i form av en förklarande fallstudie. Som datainsamling används dokument i olika former och analysen var kvantitativ då resultatet av utvärdering ger olika procenttal av hur rätt respektive system har. Under undersökningen gång så kom vi fram till att båda systemen hade sina fördelar och nackdelar. T.ex. så det gamla NTIS systemet fortfarande bäst på isigt och moddigt väglag. Medans det nya RCC systemet hade sina egna fördelar, t.ex. snöigt väglag och vått väglag. Samt så hade RCC en klar fördel med sin rapporteringstid, vilket var ett problem man såg med NTIS. Resultat var som sagt ett procenttal av hur rätt de två olika systemen hade, men även förslag till förbättringar. T.ex. hur man skulle kunna ändra RCC regler för bättre resultat. / Trafikverket is the government branch that operates all of Sweden's roads and railroads and one of their main goals is the so called zero vision. The idea behind zero vision is that all roads shall be safe to use and that no one should get injured while on the roads. One part of fulfilling this goal is that Trafikverket gives out short term forecast about the road conditions and driving conditions. Currently a manual system called NTIS is used, but Trafikverket is currently developing a new automatic system called RCC. RCC is supposed to be able to form short term forecast by using different kinds of data such as weather stations. The reason behind this study is to compare how well the two different systems do a short term forecast. They are paired against each other, but the goal is also to look how it really was in reality. The study was done as an explanatory case study. Data was collect by document of many kinds and the analysis was quantitative since the result is a percentage of how well each system had done. During the study many things were concluded. Such as both systems had their strengths and flaws. For example the old NTIS system was still better at icy and slushy roads. While the new RCC system was good at snowy and wet roads. Also a clear strength and also reason behind RCC was it’s automatic and constant report time, which was a problem in the NTIS systemet. The result of the study was a percentage how well each system did. But also suggestions how rules of the new RCC system may be improved was also given that may strengthen the result of the system.

The growing share of installed wind power in the Swedish electricity system has caused concerns whether the available regulating power will be sufficient. Several studies have examined the need of regulating power using both statistical and modelling approaches. However, there is a risk that some aspects of the short-term regulation of hydropower might have been missed. By using one of Vattenfall’s hydropower planning tools, the short-term operation of The Lule River has been simulated with an increasing penetration of wind power. The tool includes detailed models of reservoirs, generating units including efficiency curves and start/stop costs. By introducing a day-by-day simulation with a seven-day window price forecast, updated with a new wind forecast for each iteration, a 21-days scenario has been simulated. Transmission limits are disregarded and the thermal production is reduced with the average wind production. To quantify and compare the regulation capacity, the regulation factor is introduced. It reflects the ability to utilise high-price hours and considering that the need of regulating power for the short-term perspective is reflected in the price it will also reflect the regulation capacity. It is shown that the regulating factor is correlated to the discharge factor,whichis the relation between the maximum discharge to the average statistical discharge for a plant. A high discharge factor provides the flexibility to utilise the fluctuations in price. The discharge factor is adapted to the plants placement in the reach, accounting for both reservoirs located upstream and downstream, especially for The Lule River which has been designed to regulate for the fluctuations in the load. The flexibility required by the rest of the Nordic rivers is quantified for future studies. It is concluded that The Lule River is able to meet some of the fluctuations of wind power production due to the overcapacity ininstalled power. The production can, at the expense of decreased efficiency of the generating units, alter the production to suit a more fluctuating price.It is important to emphasise that The Lule River alone cannot balance a large penetration of wind power. To fully take into account the effects of a large penetration of wind power the study must be expanded to include more scenarios. The study should include different types of hydrological prerequisites and the seasonal variations in power production as well as additional rivers.

In the present electrical market there is an increasing penetration of intermittent energy sources. Several studies have examined its effect on the planning of hydropower operation and the conclusion is that an increasing intermittent production is likely to result in a more variable hydropower operation, utilising a wider span of operational set points. The wear of a hydropower unit is generally at a minimum when operated close to best efficiency and increases when operating at higher or lower set points. This study introduces a method to calculate an operation dependent cost (ODC) function for an arbitrary hydropower unit or unit combination based on vibration measurements and operational data. The method is tested in a case study where an ODC is implemented in Akkats, located in the Small Lule River in order to evaluate its effect on operational pattern, profitability and balancing contribution. The results show that the implemented ODC mainly affects Akkats. For an increasing ODC, Akkats is operated closer to the best point of efficiency and the operational pattern gets less variable and the effect gets more apparent the lower the spot price. Akkats ability to follow the spot price is reduced, decreasing the earning per produced energy with a few percent­ages. Akkats balancing contribution decreases significantly more, due to a less variable operational pattern. The study compares the reduced ODC to the reduced spot income and concludes that the wear cost in Akkats has to be above 1,21 €/MWh in order to be economically feasible to include in the planning. The operational pattern for the simulated river is close to unchanged at highest price hours but during lower price hours an increasing ODC results in an increased production, due to an increasing mean flow and changed operational pattern in Akkats. More production during low prices hours results in a decreasing profitability for all plants along the river. The balancing contribution is close to unchanged in all plants except Akkats, since the production still follows the same pattern.