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Forecasting daily maximum temperature of Umeånaz, saima January 2015 (has links)
The aim of this study is to get some approach which can help in improving the predictions of daily temperature of Umeå. Weather forecasts are available through various sources nowadays. There are various software and methods available for time series forecasting. Our aim is to investigate the daily maximum temperatures of Umeå, and compare the performance of some methods in forecasting these temperatures. Here we analyse the data of daily maximum temperatures and find the predictions for some local period using methods of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), exponential smoothing (ETS), and cubic splines. The forecast package in R is used for this purpose and automatic forecasting methods available in the package are applied for modelling with ARIMA, ETS, and cubic splines. The thesis begins with some initial modelling on univariate time series of daily maximum temperatures. The data of daily maximum temperatures of Umeå from 2008 to 2013 are used to compare the methods using various lengths of training period. On the basis of accuracy measures we try to choose the best method. Keeping in mind the fact that there are various factors which can cause the variability in daily temperature, we try to improve the forecasts in the next part of thesis by using multivariate time series forecasting method on the time series of maximum temperatures together with some other variables. Vector auto regressive (VAR) model from the vars package in R is used to analyse the multivariate time series. Results: ARIMA is selected as the best method in comparison with ETS and cubic smoothing splines to forecast one-step-ahead daily maximum temperature of Umeå, with the training period of one year. It is observed that ARIMA also provides better forecasts of daily temperatures for the next two or three days. On the basis of this study, VAR (for multivariate time series) does not help to improve the forecasts significantly. The proposed ARIMA with one year training period is compatible with the forecasts of daily maximum temperature of Umeå obtained from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI).
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Periodic and Non-Periodic Filter Structures in Lasers / Periodiska och icke-periodisk filterstrukturer i lasrarEnge, Leo January 2020 (has links)
Communication using fiber optics is an integral part of modern societies and one of the most important parts of this is the grating filter of a laser. In this report we introduce both the periodic and the non-periodic grating filter and discuss how there can be resonance in these structures. We then provide an exact method for calculating the spectrum of these grating filters and study three different methods to calculate this approximately. The first one is the \emph{Fourier approximation} which is very simple. For the studied filters the fundamental form of the results for this method is correct, even though the details are not. The second method consists of calculating the spectrum exactly for some values and then use interpolation by splines. This method gives satisfactory results for the types of gratings analysed. Finally a method of perturbation is provided for the periodic grating filter as well as an outline for how this can be extended to the non-periodic grating filter. For the studied filters the results of this method are very promising. The method of perturbations may also give a deeper understanding of how a filter works and we therefore conclude that it would be of interest to study the method of perturbations further, while all the studied methods can be useful for computation of the spectrum depending on the required precision. / Fiberoptisk kommunikation utgör en viktig del i moderna samhällen och en av de grudläggande delarna av detta är Bragg-filter i lasrar. I den här rapporten introducerar vi både det periodiska och det icke-periodiska Bragg-filtret och diskuterar hur resonans kan uppstå i dessa. Vi presenterar sedan en exakt metod för att beräkna spektrumet av dessa filter samt studerar tre approximativa metoder för att beräkna spektrumet. Den första metoden är \emph{Fourier-approximationen} som är väldigt enkel. För de studerade filtrena blir de grundläggande formerna korrekta med Fourier-approximationen, medan detaljerna är fel. Den andra metoden består av att räkna ut spektrumet exakt för några punkter och sedan interpolera med hjälp av splines. Den här metoden ger mycket bra resultat för de studerade filtrena. Till sist presenteras en metod baserad på störningsteori för det periodiska filtret, samt en översikt över hur det här kan utökas till det icke-periodiska filtret. Denna metod ger mycket lovande resulat och den kan även ge djupare insikt i hur ett filter fungerar. Vi sluter oss därför till att det vore intressant att vidare studera metoder med störningar, men även att alla studerade metoder kan vara användabara för beräkningen av spektra beroende på vilken precision som krävs.
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