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This thesis focuses on the development of a novel polymer based housing for power thyristor devices typically used in long distance high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission. Power thyristor devices used in HVDC power conversion stations are typically packaged in a hermetically sealed ceramic housing and have demonstrated an excellent history of reliability and performance. However, to avoid increasing the number of thyristors in future higher powered HVDC schemes thyristors having higher power ratings at 8.5 kV and sizes at 125 mm and 150 mm diameters are sought for implementation to achieve higher transmission ratings of, for example, 4000 A at +/- 800 kV. The main disadvantages of such large ceramic-based packages are higher processing cost and weight whilst robustness is also a concern. To overcome these issues, replacing the current ceramic housing with a polymeric material has been investigated in this project. The advantages it is anticipated such packages will provide include lower cost, less weight, robustness, recyclability, etc. However, some challenges it will also offer are: non-hermeticity i.e. polymers are moisture and gas permeable, potentially more complex manufacturing routes, and different electrical, mechanical and thermal properties compared to ceramic materials. The work presented in this thesis was part of a larger project where these challenges have been addressed by developing and testing a prototype polymeric thyristor housing. The prototype is aimed at demonstrating that polymer packages can deliver performance and reliability comparable to, if not better than, current ceramic packages. In this thesis, it is the package development and reliability related studies that are discussed. Because the housings will experience severe electrical stresses and various thermal excursions during their service life, the electrical and thermo-mechanical behaviour of the polymer housing was studied using finite element analysis to gain an understanding of the effects of various design variables and materials properties on performance and the tradeoffs between performance and manufacturability. From these modelling studies, design guidelines have been established for the future development of polymer housings. On the other hand, to identify the physics-of-failure of the prototype that was manufactured as part of the project, accelerated life tests were performed to study its reliability. The knowledge gained from the polymer prototype development was then applied to the design of a larger 125 mm diameter housing using the Taguchi method of experimental design.

O desenvolvimento de sistemas de conversão de energia baseados na tecnologia de células a combustível tem demandado estudos de confiabilidade, uma vez que requisitos de durabilidade e custo passaram a ser fundamentais para a inserção desta tecnologia no mercado de energia. Neste trabalho foi proposta uma metodologia de análise de confiabilidade de células a combustível de membrana polimérica condutora de prótons (células a combustível do tipo PEM), tendo em vista a qualificação destes itens como protótipos de unidades comerciais. A metodologia proposta incluiu uma avaliação inicial qualitativa das possíveis falhas em células a combustível do tipo PEM, realizada pela aplicação de uma Análise de Modos de Falha e Efeitos, técnica conhecida pela sigla FMEA. Além disso, foi elaborado um plano de testes de vida para as unidades produzidas no IPEN CNEN/SP e foi efetuada a análise dos resultados usando-se métodos estatísticos para dados de confiabilidade. Assim, a parte experimental consistiu em produzir as células a combustível no laboratório e submetê-las aos testes de vida, nos quais foram simuladas condições reais de operação. Os dados amostrais foram analisados estatisticamente, gerando resultados importantes em relação às medidas de desempenho e durabilidade dos dispositivos em estudo. Por meio de uma análise não paramétrica, foi gerada uma estimativa da função de confiabilidade das células a combustível usando-se o estimador de Kaplan- Meier. Pela modelagem paramétrica, foi possível ajustar uma distribuição exponencial para o tempo de vida destes dispositivos, gerando uma estimativa de vida média de 1.094,58 horas, com intervalo de 95% de confiança de [533,03 horas; 2.836,13 horas]. Com relação ao desempenho, foi aplicada uma regressão linear simples aos dados de potencial elétrico ao longo do tempo, gerando um valor aproximado para a taxa de queda do potencial elétrico de 80 μV h-1. Cabe ressaltar que, a metodologia proposta neste estudo deverá ser integrada ao processo de desenvolvimento das células a combustível, para permitir o acompanhamento da melhoria de sua confiabilidade. / The development of power conversion systems based on fuel cells has been demanding reliability studies since the requirements associated to cost and durability of these products have become fundamental to their acceptance in the energy market. The reliability analysis proposed in this work aimed to qualify the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells produced at IPEN CNEN/SP as prototypes of commercial units. The methodology included an initial assessment of failures of the PEM fuel cells, which was carried out by the application of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Furthermore, the methodology involved the planning of life tests and the quantitative assessment based on statistical methods for reliability data. Thus, the experimental part of this work consisted of producing the fuel cells in the laboratory, and testing them under stable and dynamic operating conditions. The main results of the quantitative analysis were the estimates of the reliability function and mean time to failure of the PEM fuel cells. These estimates were obtained by means of two different approaches, a non parametric and a parametric one. In the non parametric analysis, the Kaplan-Meier estimator was used for the reliability function. Based on the parametric analysis, an exponential distribution was fit to data and the mean time to failure of the PEM fuel cells was estimated in 1.094,58 hours, with a 95% confidence interval of [533,03 hours; 2.836,13 hours]. Concerning the PEM fuel cells performance, a linear regression analysis of the observed data (voltage vs. time) was carried out and an approximate estimate for the voltage decay rate was calculated in 80 μV h-1. Finally, the methodology proposed in this work may be integrated into the development project of the PEM fuel cells so as to allow researchers to carry out a reliability growth analysis and monitor the improvements in these products.

Em sistemas modernos de manutenção inteligente a qualidade de uma máquina ou equipamento depende do suporte que é fornecido junto com esse produto, com a confiabilidade e segurança na utilização do mesmo. Estas exigências, por vezes, não são cumpridas e podem estar indisponíveis em algumas máquinas. Este trabalho descreve uma abordagem utilizando sinais de vibração coletados em tempo real com falhas como estudo preliminar para uma abordagem mais profunda como estudo dametodologia de testes de vida acelerado para auxiliar durante a fase de vida operacional permitindo ao fabricante a determinação dos ciclos de vida do produto. A abordagem proposta construída em cima de experiências anteriores em desenvolvimento no projeto Integração de Sistemas Inteligentes de Manutenção e Cadeia de Fornecimento de Peças Sobressalentes. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar resultados preliminares analisando a variabilidade das assinaturas de falhas das engrenagens danificadas de maneira a permitir a identificação dos ciclos de vida do produto para partes específicas de um atuador elétrico. / In modern systems of intelligent maintenance the quality of a machine or equipment depends on the support that comes with this product, with the reliability and safety in the use of it. These requirements are sometimes not met and may be unavailable on some machines. This paper describes an approach using vibration signals collected in real-time with faults as a preliminary study for a deeper approach with the study of the methodology of accelerated life tests to assist during the operational life stage allowing the manufacturer the determination of the life cycles of product. The proposed approach built on previous experiences under development in the project Integration of Intelligent Systems of Maintenance and Chain of Supply of Spares. The objective of this work is to present preliminary results analyzing the variability of failure signatures of the damaged gears in order to allow the identification of product life cycles for specific parts of an electric actuator.

Em sistemas modernos de manutenção inteligente a qualidade de uma máquina ou equipamento depende do suporte que é fornecido junto com esse produto, com a confiabilidade e segurança na utilização do mesmo. Estas exigências, por vezes, não são cumpridas e podem estar indisponíveis em algumas máquinas. Este trabalho descreve uma abordagem utilizando sinais de vibração coletados em tempo real com falhas como estudo preliminar para uma abordagem mais profunda como estudo dametodologia de testes de vida acelerado para auxiliar durante a fase de vida operacional permitindo ao fabricante a determinação dos ciclos de vida do produto. A abordagem proposta construída em cima de experiências anteriores em desenvolvimento no projeto Integração de Sistemas Inteligentes de Manutenção e Cadeia de Fornecimento de Peças Sobressalentes. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar resultados preliminares analisando a variabilidade das assinaturas de falhas das engrenagens danificadas de maneira a permitir a identificação dos ciclos de vida do produto para partes específicas de um atuador elétrico. / In modern systems of intelligent maintenance the quality of a machine or equipment depends on the support that comes with this product, with the reliability and safety in the use of it. These requirements are sometimes not met and may be unavailable on some machines. This paper describes an approach using vibration signals collected in real-time with faults as a preliminary study for a deeper approach with the study of the methodology of accelerated life tests to assist during the operational life stage allowing the manufacturer the determination of the life cycles of product. The proposed approach built on previous experiences under development in the project Integration of Intelligent Systems of Maintenance and Chain of Supply of Spares. The objective of this work is to present preliminary results analyzing the variability of failure signatures of the damaged gears in order to allow the identification of product life cycles for specific parts of an electric actuator.

Em sistemas modernos de manutenção inteligente a qualidade de uma máquina ou equipamento depende do suporte que é fornecido junto com esse produto, com a confiabilidade e segurança na utilização do mesmo. Estas exigências, por vezes, não são cumpridas e podem estar indisponíveis em algumas máquinas. Este trabalho descreve uma abordagem utilizando sinais de vibração coletados em tempo real com falhas como estudo preliminar para uma abordagem mais profunda como estudo dametodologia de testes de vida acelerado para auxiliar durante a fase de vida operacional permitindo ao fabricante a determinação dos ciclos de vida do produto. A abordagem proposta construída em cima de experiências anteriores em desenvolvimento no projeto Integração de Sistemas Inteligentes de Manutenção e Cadeia de Fornecimento de Peças Sobressalentes. O objetivo deste trabalho é apresentar resultados preliminares analisando a variabilidade das assinaturas de falhas das engrenagens danificadas de maneira a permitir a identificação dos ciclos de vida do produto para partes específicas de um atuador elétrico. / In modern systems of intelligent maintenance the quality of a machine or equipment depends on the support that comes with this product, with the reliability and safety in the use of it. These requirements are sometimes not met and may be unavailable on some machines. This paper describes an approach using vibration signals collected in real-time with faults as a preliminary study for a deeper approach with the study of the methodology of accelerated life tests to assist during the operational life stage allowing the manufacturer the determination of the life cycles of product. The proposed approach built on previous experiences under development in the project Integration of Intelligent Systems of Maintenance and Chain of Supply of Spares. The objective of this work is to present preliminary results analyzing the variability of failure signatures of the damaged gears in order to allow the identification of product life cycles for specific parts of an electric actuator.

O desenvolvimento de sistemas de conversão de energia baseados na tecnologia de células a combustível tem demandado estudos de confiabilidade, uma vez que requisitos de durabilidade e custo passaram a ser fundamentais para a inserção desta tecnologia no mercado de energia. Neste trabalho foi proposta uma metodologia de análise de confiabilidade de células a combustível de membrana polimérica condutora de prótons (células a combustível do tipo PEM), tendo em vista a qualificação destes itens como protótipos de unidades comerciais. A metodologia proposta incluiu uma avaliação inicial qualitativa das possíveis falhas em células a combustível do tipo PEM, realizada pela aplicação de uma Análise de Modos de Falha e Efeitos, técnica conhecida pela sigla FMEA. Além disso, foi elaborado um plano de testes de vida para as unidades produzidas no IPEN CNEN/SP e foi efetuada a análise dos resultados usando-se métodos estatísticos para dados de confiabilidade. Assim, a parte experimental consistiu em produzir as células a combustível no laboratório e submetê-las aos testes de vida, nos quais foram simuladas condições reais de operação. Os dados amostrais foram analisados estatisticamente, gerando resultados importantes em relação às medidas de desempenho e durabilidade dos dispositivos em estudo. Por meio de uma análise não paramétrica, foi gerada uma estimativa da função de confiabilidade das células a combustível usando-se o estimador de Kaplan- Meier. Pela modelagem paramétrica, foi possível ajustar uma distribuição exponencial para o tempo de vida destes dispositivos, gerando uma estimativa de vida média de 1.094,58 horas, com intervalo de 95% de confiança de [533,03 horas; 2.836,13 horas]. Com relação ao desempenho, foi aplicada uma regressão linear simples aos dados de potencial elétrico ao longo do tempo, gerando um valor aproximado para a taxa de queda do potencial elétrico de 80 μV h-1. Cabe ressaltar que, a metodologia proposta neste estudo deverá ser integrada ao processo de desenvolvimento das células a combustível, para permitir o acompanhamento da melhoria de sua confiabilidade. / The development of power conversion systems based on fuel cells has been demanding reliability studies since the requirements associated to cost and durability of these products have become fundamental to their acceptance in the energy market. The reliability analysis proposed in this work aimed to qualify the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells produced at IPEN CNEN/SP as prototypes of commercial units. The methodology included an initial assessment of failures of the PEM fuel cells, which was carried out by the application of a Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Furthermore, the methodology involved the planning of life tests and the quantitative assessment based on statistical methods for reliability data. Thus, the experimental part of this work consisted of producing the fuel cells in the laboratory, and testing them under stable and dynamic operating conditions. The main results of the quantitative analysis were the estimates of the reliability function and mean time to failure of the PEM fuel cells. These estimates were obtained by means of two different approaches, a non parametric and a parametric one. In the non parametric analysis, the Kaplan-Meier estimator was used for the reliability function. Based on the parametric analysis, an exponential distribution was fit to data and the mean time to failure of the PEM fuel cells was estimated in 1.094,58 hours, with a 95% confidence interval of [533,03 hours; 2.836,13 hours]. Concerning the PEM fuel cells performance, a linear regression analysis of the observed data (voltage vs. time) was carried out and an approximate estimate for the voltage decay rate was calculated in 80 μV h-1. Finally, the methodology proposed in this work may be integrated into the development project of the PEM fuel cells so as to allow researchers to carry out a reliability growth analysis and monitor the improvements in these products.

<p>Temperature is the common accelerant that is used for shelf-life determination of shelf-stable food because it is easy to use and there are models such as Q₁₀and Arrhenius, which are available for shelf-life prediction. The accelerated shelf-life test (ASLT) still requires months of analysis time as it only uses temperature as the accelerant. Oxygen pressure as an accelerant has not been given much attention even though many studies have shown the negative impact of oxygen on the shelf-life of food. An effective analysis method with multiple accelerants has the potential for the development of a rapid shelf-life determination method. Hence, this research focused on the invention of a rapid method, named the Ultra-Accelerated Shelf-Life Test (UASLT) that combines oxygen pressure and temperature as accelerants and the development of shelf-life prediction model(s). The study hypothesized that the application of elevated oxygen pressure and elevated temperature (40C) increases the amount of oxygen diffusing into packaged food which leads to rapid degradation of nutrients that further reduces the overall shelf-life analysis time compared to the ASLT method. A custom-made high-pressure chamber with a 100% oxygen environment at 40C was designed and developed as part of the UASLT method. The impact of the application of oxygen pressure on oxygen diffusivity in polymeric food packaging materials was investigated on three packages with different oxygen permeability properties. The application of oxygen pressure significantly increased the rate of oxygen transfer and the oxygen diffusivity values for all packaging materials compared to the counterparts that were not exposed to the pressure. A shelf-stable model food fortified with vitamins A, B1, C and D3 was developed to investigate the effectiveness of the UASLT method in degrading the quality indicators in the model foods in a polyethylene terephthalate (PET) container. PET was chosen as it was the most permeable to oxygen. Model food was also subjected to ASLT conditions at the same temperature without additional pressure and at room temperature (control). A degradation of 27.1 ± 1.9%, 13.9± 2.1%, 35.8 ± 1.0%, and 35.4 ± 0.7% were seen in vitamins A, B1, C and D3, respectively, in just 50 days. Slower degradation was observed with samples kept under the ASLT conditions for 105 days and reached a degradation of 24.0 ± 2.0%, 4.9 ± 6.1%, 32.0 ± 3.1% and 25.1 ± 1.5% for vitamin A, B1, C and D3, respectively. The control samples that were studied for 210 days showed 14.9 ± 5.0%, 2.0 ± 2.2%, 13.8 ± 2.2% and 10.6% ± 0.8% degradation in vitamins A, B1, C and D3, respectively. The increase in the dE values due to browning in samples kept at the UASLT, ASLT and control conditions were 11.67 ± 0.09, 7.49 ± 0.19 and 2.51 ± 0.11, respectively. The degradation of vitamins A, C, D3 was analyzed using the 1st order kinetic and the rate constant,    (day^-1) was used to develop four prediction models. Vitamin B1 values were omitted from the kinetic analysis due to insufficient degradation. Two temperature-oxygen diffusion models were developed by correlating oxygen diffusivity and   . Comparisons were made with the temperature-based models of    and Arrhenius. The predicted    values across the models were in the range of 0.051-0.054 day^-1,0.080-0.088 day^-1 and 0.048-0.051 day^-1, for vitamin A, C and D3, respectively. The    values estimated for vitamins A, C, and D3 were 2.16, 2.63 and 2.62, respectively. The predicted shelf-life of vitamin A, C and D3 to undergo 25% reduction was in the range of 404 to 551, 321-353 and 529-583 days across all models, respectively. The shelf-life predicted from the temperature-oxygen diffusion models was close to the temperature models indicating the potential to be paired with the UASLT method. Experimental verification is needed to analyze the errors in the prediction. The addition of oxygen pressure further reduced the shelf-life analysis time by 50% compared to ASLT. Elevated external oxygen pressure can be used as an accelerant along with elevated temperatures (40C) for rapid shelf-life testing of packaged foods. This novel approach has potential application in the food industry for faster shelf-life analysis of food.</p>

<p>In this thesis, inferential methods for one-shot device testing data from accelerated life-test are developed. Due to constraints on time and budget, accelerated life-tests are commonly used to induce more failures within a reasonable amount of test-time for obtaining more lifetime information that will be especially useful in reliability analysis. One-shot devices, which can be used only once as they get destroyed immediately after testing, yield observations only on their condition and not on their real lifetimes. So, only binary response data are observed from an one-shot device testing experiment. Since no failure times of units are observed, we use the EM algorithm for determining the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. Also, inference for the reliability at a mission time and the mean lifetime at normal operating conditions are also developed.</p> <p>The thesis proceeds as follows. Chapter 2 considers the exponential distribution with single-stress relationship and develops inferential methods for the model parameters, the reliability and the mean lifetime. The results obtained by the EM algorithm are compared with those obtained from the Bayesian approach. A one-shot device testing data is analyzed by the proposed method and presented as an illustrative example. Next, in Chapter 3, the exponential distribution with multiple-stress relationship is considered and corresponding inferential results are developed. Jackknife technique is described for the bias reduction in the developed estimates. Interval estimation for the reliability and the mean lifetime are also discussed based on observed information matrix, jackknife technique, parametric bootstrap method, and transformation technique. Again, we present an example to illustrate all the inferential methods developed in this chapter. Chapter 4 considers the point and interval estimation for the one-shot device testing data under the Weibull distribution with multiple-stress relationship and illustrates the application of the proposed methods in a study involving the development of tumors in mice with respect to risk factors such as sex, strain of offspring, and dose effects of benzidine dihydrochloride. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also carried out to evaluate the performance of the EM estimates for different levels of reliability and different sample sizes. Chapter 5 describes a general algorithm for the determination of the optimal design of an accelerated life-test plan for one-shot device testing experiment. It is based on the asymptotic variance of the estimated reliability at a specific mission time. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the application of the algorithm. Finally, Chapter 6 presents some concluding remarks and some additional research problems that would be of interest for further study.</p> / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

The dissertation thesis with the topic „Simulation Modelling of Electrical Drives for Selected Critical Applications“ focuses on the area of given applications in civil aviation. The selected application that the thesis deals with is an electrically driven and electronically controlled fuel pump supplying fuel to an aviation motor of the APU type. The thesis gives a comprehensive description of the design cycle of the unit and demonstrates implementing all the required critical functions. In the course of the design of the unit modern techniques in mathematical modelling, simulation, verification, monitoring and prediction of the operation status of airborne equipment were uses to the utmost extent. The purpose of these was to show the suitability of their application with regard to decreasing design time and cost, increasing lifetime and servicing intervals, as well as increasing user comfort and decreasing price. At the same time the required reliability was to be kept. The thesis also aims to prove and verify the suitability of using electronically commutated dc motors in critical applications in civil aviation. To reach this goal, it is necessary to design a robust drive control which would meet the given reliability requirements.