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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Does Consumption-Wealth ratio signal stock returns?Results for Taiwan

Chou, Hsin-Chieh 21 June 2012 (has links)
This paper studies the role of fluctuation of the aggregate consumption-wealth ratio(cay) for predicting Taiwan stock return. The effect of cay on U.S. stock return has been recently confirmed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) with a two stage method. In the first step, estimate the ratio used a dynamic least square(DLS) technique. Second, to investigate the performance of cay, they use in-sample and out-of-sample test. In this paper, we follow the method which Lettau and Ludvigson(2001) use to examine the predictability of cay. Using quarterly market data from 1998 to 2010, we find cay is strong predictors of excess return in out-of sample test. We also find that this ratio is a better forecaster of future returns at intermediate horizons compared to short time.

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