Orientador: Marcos Gomes Nogueira / Banca: Luiz Felipe Velho Machado / Banca: Eliana Aparecida Panarelli / Resumo: O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a distribuição longitudinal e os atributos ecológicos das assembléias zooplanctônicas (Copepoda, Cladocera e Rotifera) e as variáveis limnológicas na zona lacustre do reservatório de Itaipu, trecho do rio Paraná a jusante e desembocadura dos rios Iguaçu e Monday, os quais não sofrem influência de barragem. Para tanto, foram realizadas coletas em dois períodos distintos: período seco (inverno 2009) e período chuvoso (verão 2010), em nove estações de amostragem: uma em ambiente lêntico, a montante da barragem de Itaipu, seis no rio Paraná, uma na foz rio do Monday - Paraguai, e outra na foz do rio Iguaçu - Brasil/Argentina. Foram obtidas amostras de qualitativas, através de arrastos horizontais, e quantitativas (tréplicas), através de arrastos verticais de 20 m (1.143 litros), ambas com rede de 50 μm. Os seguintes parâmetros físicos e químicos da água foram medidos na região de superfície e meio do canal dos rios: transparência, temperatura, velocidade, pH, oxigênio dissolvido, condutividade elétrica, turbidez, material em suspensão (frações orgânicas e inorgânicas), nitrogênio total, fósforo total, silicato dissolvido e biomassa fitoplanctônica (clorofila a). Para auxiliar na interpretação dos dados determinou-se a riqueza de espécies (S), o índice de Shannon-Wiener (H‟), a Equitabilidade de Pielou (J‟). Foram feitas ainda análises de componentes principais (ACPs), de correspondência canônica (ACCs), de agrupamento por similaridade (UPGMA) e de variância ANOVA "two-way", todas estas baseadas na abundância e composição dos microcrustáceos e rotíferos. As ACPs indicaram a separação dos pontos entre os períodos (seco e chuvoso) e as variáveis limnológicas atuantes na diferenciação. A região a jusante da barragem de Itaipu, no rio Paraná, foi distinta dos rios Iguaçu e Monday... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The aim of the study was to analyze the longitudinal distribution and ecological attributes of the zooplankton assemblages (Copepoda, Cladocera and Rotifera) and the limnological variables in the Itaipu Reservoir and Paraná River stretch downstream the dam -and Iguazu and Monday Rivers. Samples were collected in two distinct periods: dry season (winter 2009) and rainy season (summer 2010), in nine sampling stations: one site in lentic environment upstream of the Itaipu Dam, six sites in the Paraná River, one site in the mouth of Monday River - Paraguay River, and one site in the mouth of the Iguazu River - Brazil/Argentina. The zooplankton was collected (treplicates) through vertical hauls (20 m depth; 1,143 liters), for quantitative analyses, and through horizontal throws for qualitative analyses, both with a 50 μm plankton net. The following physical and chemical water parameters were measured on the surface water, in the middle of the river channel: transparency, temperature, water speed, pH, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, turbidity, suspended matter (organic and inorganic fractions), total nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved silicate and phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a). In order to improve the data interpretation it was calculated the species richness (S), Shannon-Wiener index diversity (H ') and Pielou evenness (J'). It was also performed Principal Component Analyses (PCAs), Canonical Correspondence Analyses (CCAs ), cluster analyses (UPGMA) and variance analyses (ANOVA two-way ), all of them based on the abundance and composition of microcrustaceans and rotifers. The ACPs indicated the separation of sites between the seasonal periods and limnological variables interfering in the distributions. Sites downstream the Itaipu Dam, in the Parana River, were distinct from the ones in Iguazu River and Monday River. These last two sites contributed to the increase... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

Dogslife is the first large-scale, longitudinal cohort study of canine lifestyle, morphology and health. The project involves recruiting the owners of UK-based, Kennel Club registered Labrador Retrievers and asking them to submit data about their dogs via an online questionnaire repeatedly as the dogs age. In this thesis, I have analysed Dogslife data regarding the lifestyle, morphology and health of Labrador Retrievers up to four years of age. A validation study was initially undertaken in order to understand the quality of the Dogslife data because this would underlie all future investigations. Owners were visited and veterinary records scrutinised. It was determined that Dogslife illness reports were subject to recall decay and that minor changes would improve the usability of the questionnaire. Accelerometers were subsequently sent to a subset of the cohort and aspects of the Dogslife exercise questionnaire were found to be correlated to accelerometer readings indicative of sedentary, light and moderate to vigorous exercise. Overall, Dogslife dogs were exercised for over two hours each day with the time spent being dominated by time off lead and on other activities. Dogs in England spent less time exercising than those in Scotland and Wales and dogs in family households spent less time exercising than those in single adult households or households comprising more than one adult. Despite being pedigree animals, the males in the cohort were 2-3cm taller than the breed standard. On average, the females met the breed standard but there was wide variation for both sexes. Working dogs in the cohort were over 2kg lighter than household pets and chocolate coloured dogs were 1.4kg heavier than their black and yellow counterparts. Dogs in multi-dog households were 0.5kg lighter than those in households with no other dog. Heavier dogs spent less time fetching, chasing and retrieving and on other exercise. Over 6,000 signs of illness were reported to Dogslife in the first three and half years and approximately half of them did not involve a veterinary visit. Reported signs were dominated by vomiting and diarrhoea, both of which peaked when the dogs were between 3-6 months of age. For the first time, rates of diarrhoea were shown to be positively associated with human population density in the UK. Limber tail was found to be associated with swimming in the cohort and working dogs were more likely to develop the condition than pets. Genetic analyses identified regions of interest that might predispose the dogs to limber tail on chromosomes 6 and 30. Data from the Dogslife project provide a unique resource for investigating the epidemiology of Labrador Retrievers. This thesis creates a platform for all such future investigations.

Experience sampling methodology (ESM) is a real-time data capture method that can be used to monitor symptoms and behaviours as they occur during everyday life. With measures completed multiple times a day, over several days, this intensive longitudinal data collection method results in multilevel data with observations nested within days, nested within subjects. The aim of this thesis was to investigate the optimal use of multilevel models for ESM in the design, reporting and analysis of ESM data, and apply these models to a study in people with psychosis. A methodological systematic review was conducted to identify design, analysis and statistical reporting practices in current ESM studies. Seventy four studies from 2012 were reviewed, and together with the analysis of a motivating example, four significant areas of interest were identified: power and sample size, missing data, momentary variation and predicting momentary change. Appropriate multilevel methods were sought for each of these areas, and were evaluated in the three-level context of ESM.Missing data was found to be both underreported and rarely considered when choosing analysis methods in practice. This work has introduced a more detailed understanding of nonresponse in ESM studies and has discussed appropriate statistical methods in the presence of missing data. This thesis has extended two-level statistical methodology for data analysis to accommodate the three-level structure of ESM. Novel applications of time trends have been developed, were time can be measured at two separate levels. The suitability of predicting momentary change in ESM data has been questioned; it is argued that the first-difference and joint modelling methods that are claimed in the literature to remove bias possibly induce more in this context. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations were shown to be a flexible option for estimating empirical power under varying sample sizes at levels 3, 2 and 1, with recommendations made for conservative power estimates when a priori parameter estimates are unknown. In summary, this work demonstrates how multilevel models can be used to examine the rich data structure of ESM and fully utilize the variation in measures captured at all levels.

RAMOS, S. P. Análise da viabilidade técnica dos levantamentos de baixo custo de perfil e irregularidade longitudinal de pavimento com o uso de acelerômetros controlados por arduino auxiliado por bicicleta. 2017. 113 f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia de Transportes)–Centro de Tecnologia, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, 2017. / Submitted by Marlene Sousa (mmarlene@ufc.br) on 2017-08-29T16:33:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_dis_spramos.pdf: 6011113 bytes, checksum: c11cfa0615a6da726476a6166777b7f2 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marlene Sousa (mmarlene@ufc.br) on 2017-08-29T16:34:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_dis_spramos.pdf: 6011113 bytes, checksum: c11cfa0615a6da726476a6166777b7f2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-29T16:34:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2017_dis_spramos.pdf: 6011113 bytes, checksum: c11cfa0615a6da726476a6166777b7f2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-30 / User safety and rolling comfort are functional parameters that can be evaluated, among other criteria, by roughness . Given that there is a strong relation between the profile and the longitudinal irregularities of a pavement, this affinity allows to analyze the evolution of that parameter. In order to carry out the survey of a longitudinal profile of a pavement and the evaluation of roughness , according to the current norms, we can mention, respectively, the level and sighting methods and the laser profilometer. The first one demands a lot of time and physical effort from the operators and the second, a lot of financial resources, since it is a n equipment that costs almost R $ 400,000 ,00 . Thus, it is reasonable to analyze the feasibility of the use of new technologies in order to reconstruct a trajectory related to the longitudinal profile of a pavement and to evaluate an d monitor the evolution of roughness in a practical and economical way. One of the ways to obtain the profile and to evaluate the roughness in this work was the use of inertial sensors, such as an accelerometer. This sensor controlled by an a rduino microco ntroller provides acceleration data, which, after processing the data using the Matlab, Excel, Proval and Minitab software, sought to verify the quality and behavior of the measured signals in order to evaluate the capacity Of the sensor to reconstruct the longitudinal profile and the potential of the equipment to evaluate the longitudinal irregularities of a pavement. In the data collection stage, a Scottish fork and an air rail trolley were used in the laboratory, and a bicycle, with which several passes were made in an experimental section located in the Pici Campus of the Federal University of Ceará. The acceleration data obtained by the accelerometer were processed through digital signal filters and correlated with the International Roughness Index (IRI ) values. By the analysis of the results, it was possible to conclude that the equipment is not efficient to obtain the longitudinal profile of a pavement, due to the low speed of the bicycle. However, the accelerometer controlled by arduino had a high pot ential to evaluate the roughness of a pavement, with 85% of satisfactory results. / A segurança dos usuários e o conforto ao rolamento são parâmetros funcionais que podem ser avaliados, entre outros critérios, pela irregularidade longitudinal. Dado que há uma forte relação entre o perfil e as irregularidades longitudinais de um pavimento, esta afinidade permite analisar a evolução daquele parâmetro. Para se executar o levantamento de perfil longitudinal de um pavimento e a avaliação de irregularidad e longitudinal, de acordo com as normas atuais, pode - se citar, respectivamente, os métodos de nível e mira e do perfilômetro a laser . O primeiro demanda muito tempo e esforço físico dos operadores e o segundo, muitos recursos financeiros, por ser um equipa mento que chega a custar quase R$ 400.000,00 . Dessa forma, torna - se razoável analisar a viabilidade do uso de novas tecnologias com o intuito de se reconstruir uma trajetória referente ao perfil longitudinal de um pavimento e avaliar e monitorar a evolução da irregularidade longitudinal de modo prático e econômico. Uma das maneiras para se obter o perfil e avaliar a irregularidade longitudinal , neste trabalho, foi pelo uso de sensores inerciais, como um acelerômetro. Este sensor controlado por um microcontr olador arduino fornece dados de aceleração, dos quais , após o processamento dos dados pelos softwares Matlab, Excel, Proval e Minitab, procurou - se verificar a qualidade e o comportamento dos sinais medidos com o objetivo de se avaliar a capacidade de o se nsor reconstruir o perfil longitudinal e o potencial do equipamento de avaliar as irregularidades longitudinais de um pavimento. Na etapa de obtenção dos dados, foram utilizados um garfo escocês e um carrinho de trilho de ar , em laboratório, e uma biciclet a, com a qual foram realizadas várias passagens em um trecho experimental localizado no Campus do Pici da Universidade Federal do Ceará. Os dados de aceleração obtidos pelo acelerômetro foram processados através de filtros digitais de sinais e correlaciona dos com os valores do Índice Internacional de Irregularidade ( International Roughness Index – IRI). Pela análise dos resultados , foi possível concluir que o equipamento não é eficiente para a obtenção do perfi l longitudinal de um pavimento , devido à baixa velocidade da bicicleta. No entanto, o acelerômetro controlado por a rduino apresentou elevado potencial para avaliar a irregularidade longitudinal de um pavimento, com 85% de resultados satisfatórios.

In this thesis, we investigate joint models of longitudinal and time-to-event data. We extend the current literature by developing a model that assigns subject-specific variance to the longitudinal process and links this variance to the survival outcome. During development we provide the theoretical definition of the model and its properties, and explore the practical implications for estimating the parameters. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and compare the different samplers used in similar models in the literature with our custom MCMC algorithm, written in C++. We use the Deviance Information Criterion to perform model comparisons, and we formalise suggestions from the literature to use posterior predictive model checking to construct a goodness-of-fit test for our model. We use the model on two real-world datasets to investigate claims relating to the importance of blood pressure volatility on stroke risk, and examine the consequences of ignoring measurement error. We amend our model to accommodate competing risk, time-dependent baseline hazard rates, and bivariate longitudinal processes - at which point we update our MCMC samplers and identify the issues. Finally, we use our code in a separate, but related, collaboration with other researchers to analyse repeated counts data.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-29T15:10:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_7290_Danielli Cristina Borelli Cintra.pdf: 4233040 bytes, checksum: e23a31cdaf3e6952e01026494383527c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-11-28 / A emenda por traspasse de armadura longitudinal posicionada na base de pilares, largamente utilizada na execução de estruturas de múltiplos pavimentos em concreto armado, consiste num dos pontos mais vulneráveis às manifestações patológicas em pilares de edifícios, comprometendo o desempenho estrutural e durabilidade da edificação. Tal região é prejudicada, desde a etapa de concretagem, pela alta concentração de armadura e pela altura elevada de lançamento do concreto, que promovem a segregação do agregado, além de dificultarem o acesso para o adensamento. Durante a vida útil da estrutura, é uma região de alta concentração de esforços e geralmente exposta a agentes agressivos, como o acúmulo de resíduos de produtos químicos, de limpeza e umidade. O presente trabalho trata-se de um estudo experimental e estatístico do comportamento até a ruptura de 31 pilares curtos de concreto armado, submetidos à compressão centrada. Todos os pilares possuíam seção transversal de 19cm x 19cm, altura de 170cm, resistência do concreto em torno de 30MPa e taxa geométrica de armadura longitudinal de 0,88%. Variou-se apenas a posição da emenda e o comprimento de traspasse da armadura longitudinal para analisar a influência desses dois fatores e da interação entre eles na capacidade de carga dos pilares. São analisados qualitativamente os procedimentos de fabricação das amostras de pilares, que foram próximos às condições de execução de pilares em obras. Utilizou-se um planejamento fatorial para analisar estatisticamente os resultados experimentais, que confirmou as hipóteses de que nenhum dos fatores adotados, nem mesmo a interação entre eles, seriam significativos para a capacidade de carga dos pilares.

The analysis of change is an important issue in human growth and development. In longitudinal studies, growth patterns are often summarized by growth 'models' so that a small number of parameters, or the functions of them can be used to make group comparisons or to be related to other measurements. To analyse complete and balanced data, growth curves can be modelled using multivariate analysis of variance with an unstructured variance-covariance matrix; for incomplete and unbalanced data, models such as the two-stage model of Laird and Ware (1982) or the multilevel models of Goldstein (1987) are necessary. The use of multilevel models for describing growth is recognized as an important technique. It is an efficient procedure for incorporating growth models, either linear or nonlinear, into a population study. Up to now there is little literature concerning growth models over wide age ranges using multilevel models. The purpose of this study is to explore suitable multilevel models of growth over a wide age range. Extended splines are proposed, which extend conventional splines using the '+' function and by including logarithmic or negative power terms. The work has been focused on modelling human growth in length, particularly, height and head circumference as they are interesting and important measures of growth. The investigation of polynomials, conventional splines and extended splines on data from the Edinburgh Longitudinal Study shows that the extended splines are better than polynomials and conventional splines for this purpose. It also shows that extended splines are, in fact, piecewise fractional polynomials and describe data better than a single segment of a fractional polynomial. The extended splines are useful, flexible, and easily incorporated in multilevel models for studying populations and for the estimation and comparison of parameters.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:30:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2008-03-27Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:18:44Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 carmassi_al_me_rcla.pdf: 422056 bytes, checksum: 3e003a7d787394878237ef745ca2cc7d (MD5) / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) / O presente estudo foi realizado no rio Passa Cinco, um dos principais rios da sub-bacia do rio Corumbataí, e teve como objetivo caracterizar a comunidade de peixes desse riacho e verificar padrões de distribuição espaço-temporal. Para isso foram avaliados dados da comunidade (riqueza, diversidade e abundância) e dados abióticos. Seis amostragens foram realizadas no rio Passa Cinco em cinco pontos de diferentes ordens, desde a área de cabeceira, com ordem 2, até sua foz, com ordem 6. Peneira, aparelho de pesca elétrica, redes-de-espera e covos foram os apetrechos de pesca utilizados. Foram capturados 5.082 indivíduos, distribuídos em 61 espécies, 18 famílias e 6 ordens. Os estimadores de riqueza apresentaram valores relativamente próximos aos observados, indicando que as amostras foram representativas. O uso do equipamento de pesca elétrica mostrou-se bastante eficiente, visto que as curvas de rarefação referentes aos pontos em que este foi utilizado encontraram-se próximas à assíntota, já nos pontos em que foram utilizados apetrechos de pesca mais seletivos, as curvas apresentaram uma tendência crescente, indicando que, com o aumento do esforço, novas espécies poderiam ser adicionadas. Os índices de diversidade, riqueza e equitabilidade foram avaliados em relação ao tempo e ao espaço. Houve diferença significativa nos valores desses índices em função dos pontos amostrais e da época somente para os trechos de menor ordem, considerando os indivíduos capturados com o uso da pesca elétrica. O aumento desses valores ocorreu em função da ordem do riacho e época de cheia. A análise de similaridade evidenciou a separação dos pontos de maior ordem, característicos de trechos de médio e baixo curso, dos pontos de menor ordem, típicos de região de cabeceira. A análise de correspondência canônica salientou o gradiente longitudinal indo do ponto de menor ordem em direção ao ponto de maior ordem. / This study was performed in Passa Cinco stream, a main river of Corumbataí River subbasin, and its objective was to characterize the fish community of this stream and to determine patterns of distribution in space and time. For that, data related to the community (richness, diversity and abundance) and to abiotic environment were evaluated. Six samplings were performed in Passa Cinco stream in five sites of different orders, since the headwater, at order 2, until its mouth, at order 6. The following fishery equipment was used: a sieve used on bank vegetation, electric fishery equipment, waiting nets and fish-traps. It was captured 5082 individuals, distributed into 62 species, 18 families and 6 orders. The estimate procedures of richness presented values relatively similar to those found in this research, what indicates that the samples were representative. The use of electric fishery equipment revealed efficiency, because the rarefaction curves regarding the sites where this equipment was used turned out to be close to the asymptote. Meanwhile, at sites where more selective fishery equipment was used, curves presented a growing tendency, indicating that, with an increase of the effort, new species could be found. The diversity, richness and equality indexes were evaluated according to time and space. There was significant difference in the values of those indexes, due to sample sites and time, only for the smaller order sites, considering the individuals captured with electric fishery equipment. An increase of the values happened due to the increase of stream order and rainy season. Similarity analysis presented a separation of larger order sites, as a characteristic of sites of medium and low courses, as well as concerning to the sites of smaller order, typical of headwater area. The analysis of canonical correspondence pointed out the longitudinal gradient, starting from the smaller order sites towards the larger order site.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / Esta pesquisa investiga a evoluÃÃo na construÃÃo da futuridade em narrativas de crianÃas em fase de aprendizagem da lÃngua escrita. Seu principal objetivo à analisar a construÃÃo da futuridade em textos produzidos por crianÃas, ao longo de dois anos, o que dà à pesquisa um carÃter longitudinal. Observamos, portanto, o desenvolvimento da futuridade em estruturas lingÃÃsticas empregadas pelas mesmas crianÃas da alfabetizaÃÃo à primeira sÃrie. A fim de analisarmos a evoluÃÃo das formas que expressam a futuridade, utilizamos o corpus coletado pela professora do Departamento de Letras VernÃculas da Universidade Federal do CearÃ, Ana CÃlia Clementino Moura. Este material consiste na reescrita da histÃria Chapeuzinho Vermelho feita por crianÃas de uma escola particular de Fortaleza-CE. Nossa anÃlise revelou que inicialmente a crianÃa expressa a futuridade atravÃs das formas verbais simples, especialmente, aquelas com o imperativo e com a construÃÃo para + infinitivo. As formas perifrÃsticas, em sua maioria, aparecem apenas nos Ãltimos textos das crianÃas, e a forma mais utilizada à a construÃda com Ir + infinitivo. Constatamos tambÃm que as crianÃas nÃo utilizam freqÃentemente os advÃrbios temporais; o Ãnico encontrado foi o advÃrbio depois, que muitas vezes assume o papel de encadeador da narrativa. Por fim, o trabalho corrobora a idÃia de que desde cedo as crianÃas jà comeÃam a situar, de modo prospectivo, os eventos narrados, mas o uso de formas perifrÃsticas torna-se mais sofisticado em nÃmero e variedade à medida que vÃo amadurecendo e tÃm maior exposiÃÃo a textos escritos.

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