"After decades of development, Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) have become a common learning environment for learners of various domains and academic levels. ITSs are computer systems designed to provide instruction and immediate feedback, which is customized to individual students, but without requiring the intervention of human instructors. All ITSs share the same goal: to provide tutorial services that support learning. Since learning is a very complex process, it is not surprising that a range of technologies and methodologies from different fields is employed. Student modeling is a pivotal technique used in ITSs. The model observes student behaviors in the tutor and creates a quantitative representation of student properties of interest necessary to customize instruction, to respond effectively, to engage students¡¯ interest and to promote learning. In this dissertation work, I focus on the following aspects of student modeling. Part I: Student Knowledge: Parameter Interpretation. Student modeling is widely used to obtain scientific insights about how people learn. Student models typically produce semantically meaningful parameter estimates, such as how quickly students learn a skill on average. Therefore, parameter estimates being interpretable and plausible is fundamental. My work includes automatically generating data-suggested Dirichlet priors for the Bayesian Knowledge Tracing model, in order to obtain more plausible parameter estimates. I also proposed, implemented, and evaluated an approach to generate multiple Dirichlet priors to improve parameter plausibility, accommodating the assumption that there are subsets of skills which students learn similarly. Part II: Student Performance: Student Performance Prediction. Accurately predicting student performance is one of the most desired features common evaluations for student modeling. for an ITS. The task, however, is very challenging, particularly in predicting a student¡¯s response on an individual problem in the tutor. I analyzed the components of two common student models to determine which aspects provide predictive power in classifying student performance. I found that modeling the student¡¯s overall knowledge led to improved predictive accuracy. I also presented an approach, which, rather than assuming students are drawn from a single distribution, modeled multiple distributions of student performances to improve the model¡¯s accuracy. Part III: Wheel-spinning: Student Future Failure in Mastery Learning. One drawback of the mastery learning framework is its possibility to leave a student stuck attempting to learn a skill he is unable to master. We refer to this phenomenon of students being given practice with no improvement as wheel-spinning. I analyzed student wheel-spinning across different tutoring systems and estimated the scope of the problem. To investigate the negative consequences of see what wheel-spinning could have done to students, I investigated the relationships between wheel-spinning and two other constructs of interest about students: efficiency of learning and ¡°gaming the system¡±. In addition, I designed a generic model of wheel-spinning, which uses features easily obtained by most ITSs. The model can be well generalized to unknown students with high accuracy classifying mastery and wheel-spinning problems. When used as a detector, the model can detect wheel-spinning in its early stage with satisfying satisfactory precision and recall. "

<div><br></div><div><p>In many complex domains, the input data are often not suited for the typical vector representations used in deep learning models. For example, in knowledge representation, relational learning, and some computer vision tasks, the data are often better represented as graphs or sets. In these cases, a key challenge is to learn a representation function which is invariant to permutations of set or isomorphism of graphs. </p><p>In order to handle graph isomorphism, this thesis proposes a subgraph pattern neural network with invariance to graph isomorphisms and varying local neighborhood sizes. Our key insight is to incorporate the unavoidable dependencies in the training observations of induced subgraphs into both the input features and the model architecture itself via high-order dependencies, which are still able to take node/edge labels into account and facilitate inductive reasoning. </p><p>In order to learn permutation-invariant set functions, this thesis shows how the characteristics of an architecture’s computational graph impact its ability to learn in contexts with complex set dependencies, and demonstrate limitations of current methods with respect to one or more of these complexity dimensions. I also propose a new Self-Attention GRU architecture, with a computation graph that is built automatically via self-attention to minimize average interaction path lengths between set elements in the architecture’s computation graph, in order to effectively capture complex dependencies between set elements.</p><p>Besides the typical set problem, a new problem of representing sets-of-sets (SoS) is proposed. In this problem, multi-level dependence and multi-level permutation invariance need to be handled jointly. To address this, I propose a hierarchical sequence attention framework (HATS) for inductive set-of-sets embeddings, and develop the stochastic optimization and inference methods required for efficient learning.</p></div>

Space weather has become an international issue due to the catastrophic impact it can have on modern societies. Solar flares are one of the major solar activities that drive space weather and yet their occurrence is not fully understood. Research is required to yield a better understanding of flare occurrence and enable the development of an accurate flare prediction system, which can warn industries most at risk to take preventative measures to mitigate or avoid the effects of space weather. This thesis introduces novel technologies developed by combining advances in statistical physics, image processing, machine learning, and feature selection algorithms, with advances in solar physics in order to extract valuable knowledge from historical solar data, related to active regions and flares. The aim of this thesis is to achieve the followings: i) The design of a new measurement, inspired by the physical Ising model, to estimate the magnetic complexity in active regions using solar images and an investigation of this measurement in relation to flare occurrence. The proposed name of the measurement is the Ising Magnetic Complexity (IMC). ii) Determination of the flare prediction capability of active region properties generated by the new active region detection system SMART (Solar Monitor Active Region Tracking) to enable the design of a new flare prediction system. iii) Determination of the active region properties that are most related to flare occurrence in order to enhance understanding of the underlying physics behind flare occurrence. The achieved results can be summarised as follows: i) The new active region measurement (IMC) appears to be related to flare occurrence and it has a potential use in predicting flare occurrence and location. ii) Combining machine learning with SMART¿s active region properties has the potential to provide more accurate flare predictions than the current flare prediction systems i.e. ASAP (Automated Solar Activity Prediction). iii) Reduced set of 6 active region properties seems to be the most significant properties related to flare occurrence and they can achieve similar degree of flare prediction accuracy as the full 21 SMART active region properties. The developed technologies and the findings achieved in this thesis will work as a corner stone to enhance the accuracy of flare prediction; develop efficient flare prediction systems; and enhance our understanding of flare occurrence. The algorithms, implementation, results, and future work are explained in this thesis.

Space weather has become an international issue due to the catastrophic impact it can have on modern societies. Solar flares are one of the major solar activities that drive space weather and yet their occurrence is not fully understood. Research is required to yield a better understanding of flare occurrence and enable the development of an accurate flare prediction system, which can warn industries most at risk to take preventative measures to mitigate or avoid the effects of space weather. This thesis introduces novel technologies developed by combining advances in statistical physics, image processing, machine learning, and feature selection algorithms, with advances in solar physics in order to extract valuable knowledge from historical solar data, related to active regions and flares. The aim of this thesis is to achieve the followings: i) The design of a new measurement, inspired by the physical Ising model, to estimate the magnetic complexity in active regions using solar images and an investigation of this measurement in relation to flare occurrence. The proposed name of the measurement is the Ising Magnetic Complexity (IMC). ii) Determination of the flare prediction capability of active region properties generated by the new active region detection system SMART (Solar Monitor Active Region Tracking) to enable the design of a new flare prediction system. iii) Determination of the active region properties that are most related to flare occurrence in order to enhance understanding of the underlying physics behind flare occurrence. The achieved results can be summarised as follows: i) The new active region measurement (IMC) appears to be related to flare occurrence and it has a potential use in predicting flare occurrence and location. ii) Combining machine learning with SMART's active region properties has the potential to provide more accurate flare predictions than the current flare prediction systems i.e. ASAP (Automated Solar Activity Prediction). iii) Reduced set of 6 active region properties seems to be the most significant properties related to flare occurrence and they can achieve similar degree of flare prediction accuracy as the full 21 SMART active region properties. The developed technologies and the findings achieved in this thesis will work as a corner stone to enhance the accuracy of flare prediction; develop efficient flare prediction systems; and enhance our understanding of flare occurrence. The algorithms, implementation, results, and future work are explained in this thesis.