The subject of this thesis is the relationship that exists between deflation and the macroeconomic stability of the economy. Much literature has been published on this topic, but there is still a dearth of quantitative research based on strong empirical work. In the present work I have used a set of large panel data composed of 18 countries over 34 years in order to analyze the relationship between changes in inflation and output growth in a more complete and rigorous fashion. I use 3 different econometric models, namely fixed effects, random effects and the generalized method of moments. I chose these models in order to more appropriately examine the contemporaneous and lagged correlation between prices and output of countries. I also introduced foreign direct investment as a control variable to avoid the presence of potential bias. The empirical work presented in this paper leads to several findings. First, there is an insignificant relationship between a country's GDP growth and its deflation rate. Second, the relation between inflation and GDP growth is significant, and this relation becomes even positive when the econometric model is conducted on the data excluding outliers. Third, FDI positively contributes to and is partly responsible for the level of economic growth of the countries...

This thesis investigates the effect of individual countries' cultural character- istics on macroeconomic stability. Macroeconomic stability is a general con- cept that comprises the stable development of several economic parameters - inflation, government budget, external debt, gross domestic product, and oth- ers. The mainstream economics investigates these indicators usually as being shaped only by wealth, political stability and institutions. However recently, the economic literature reveals the relationship between some of the individ- ual cultural characteristics - mainly trust - and macroeconomic (in)stability. This thesis is the first attempt to analyze the effect of complex set of cultural characteristics on macroeconomic stability. Through the lens of panel data re- gression it is shown that the macroeconomic stability is significantly affected by cultural characteristics. In particular, more individualistic countries tend to have lower macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, in countries where people feel stronger fear about uncertainty the macroeconomic stability is also weaker. On the contrary from the previous studies, the positive effect of higher trust on macroeconomic stability is not confirmed. JEL Classification C33, E03, Z10, Z19 Keywords Macroeconomic stability, Cultural economics,...

The aim of the thesis is to examine the relationship between inflation and economic growth using the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as a case study. The motivation emanates not only because of the lack of studies analysing this relationship in the SADC region, but also due to the fact that this relationship may differ from the one that exists in developed countries due to the level of economic development and prudent macroeconomic policies being practised in the latter (Sarel, 1996). The relationship may differ because the vast majority of developed countries have established independent central banks with a clear mandate to keep inflation levels within a specific range (adopted an inflation targeting framework). However, in most developing countries, central banks do not have a clear inflation targeting monetary policy framework, for instance, in the SADC region, only South Africa has adopted an inflation targeting monetary policy framework. High inflation episodes are known to contribute to macroeconomic instability, therefore policy makers find it important to understand the kind of the relationship that exists between inflation and economic growth in order to develop and implement sound macroeconomic policies. Therefore, inflation is viewed to be one of the basic indicators of macroeconomic stability; hence it is an indicator of the ability of the government to manage the economy. High levels of inflation may be indicative of a lack of sound governance by the monetary authority of a country. In addition, it is a sign of government that has lost control of its finances (Fischer,1993). The thesis addresses issues of nonlinearities in the inflation-growth nexus by endogenously estimating the threshold level of inflation below which inflation may have no, or positive, impact on economic growth, or above which inflation may be detrimental to economic growth. It also assesses the effects of a shock to inflation in South Africa, being the largest economy in the region, on inflation and economic growth of the rest of the region. First, different panel data methodologies; Fixed Effects (FE), Difference Generalised Method of Moments (DIF-GMM), System Generalised Method of Moments (SYSGMM), and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimators are used in order to examine the relationship between inflation and economic growth in the region. Second, Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) methodology is utilised to examine the nonlinearities in the inflation-growth nexus. In particular, the threshold level of inflation is endogenously estimated and the smoothness of the transition from a low to a high inflation regime in the region is also estimated1. Thirdly, the effects of South African inflation on the inflation and economic growth in the rest of the region are assessed using impulse-response functions derived from estimating a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model. Overall, the study deals with problems which are normally encountered when using cross-country data such as endogeneity, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. The main findings of the study are that inflation and economic growth in the region are negatively related, as is also the case in other regions of the world as depicted by the empirical literature (Fischer, 1993 and De Gregorio, 1993). Therefore, in terms of the inflation-growth link, the SADC region is not different from all the other regions around the globe. Secondly, the threshold level of inflation in the region is estimated at 18.9 per cent, which is in line with the findings of authors like Drukker et al. (2005), Mignon and Villavicencio (2011), and Ibarra and Trupkin (2011), who found a threshold level of 19.2 per cent, 19.6 per cent, and 19.1 per cent for developing countries. However, this threshold level marginally exceeds that of Khan and Senhadji (2001), Schiavo and Vaona (2007), Moshiri and Sepehri (2009) and Espinoza et al. (2010), which studies report threshold values between 10 and 12 per cent for developing countries. The empirical results also reveal that shocks to South African inflation have significant economic impact on inflation, openness, investment and economic growth in the rest of the SADC region. In particular, more interestingly, South African inflation is found to have a negative and statistically significant impact on economic growth in the region for up to about 12 years after the shock, after which, it becomes insignificant. The contribution of the thesis to the literature is that, firstly, this looks into the inflation-growth relationship in the context of Africa, in particular the SADC region; as such an investigation or research has not been conducted before. Secondly, the research takes advantage of panel data methodologies so as to provide more robust estimates and confront the potential bias emanating from problems such as endogeneity, heterogeneity and cross-country dependence that may have affected previous empirical work on inflation-growth nexus. This is believed to provide more informative estimates on the inflation-growth link, and therefore deepens our knowledge of the region. / Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Economics / unrestricted

Macroeconomic stability is one of the most important national objectives in any country. However, economies are often subjected to a number of shocks (internal and external), which can be destabilising, produce volatility and make it difficult to achieve and maintain economic stability. Consequently, various policies are used to help deal with the various shocks that may affect the economy. Of all the available policies, monetary policy appears to have been ever more at the centre of macroeconomic policymaking. Meanwhile, for monetary policy to be effective, there is a need for a better understanding of the transmission mechanism, i.e., the process through which monetary policy decisions are transmitted into changes in real output and inflation. Whereas extensive research on the transmission mechanism has been conducted in developed countries, such work in developing countries, especially in Africa is lacking. This could be due to the fact that it was not long time ago, around the 1990s that countries in Africa started adopting the more modem central bank operations in a market-based economic and financial system characterised by indirect monetary policy. Such operations require an understanding of the transmission mechanism. Lack of empirical analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism in Botswana and developing countries of Africa in general, is the main motivating factor behind this thesis. The main objective of this thesis is, therefore, to estimate the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Botswana. Three different, but complementary techniques (the Narrative Approach, Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and the Structural Approach involving the estimation of a small structural model for Botswana economy) are used. Results from these methods tell a consistent story and indicate that monetary policy in Botswana affects real output and inflation through the interest rate channel, while the exchange rate channel is not operational. The credit channel is also active but not strong. The structural approach also indicates that devaluation is contractionary in Botswana, but more research is necessary before firmer conclusions could be made.

In this diploma paper, I would like to explain and prove reasons of economic boom in selected countries in East Asia between 1965-1997. I focus on Asian Tigers namely on investment policy. I would like to answer the questions, what were the specifics of Asian Tigers, what contributed to economic growth the most, what implements were used within investment policy, how was this investment policy successful in individual countries and what role public sector (government) played. I focus on the role of human and physical capital, the role of foreign direct investment and I sum up their impact on economic growth in countries of Asian Tigers.

The thesis deals with the analysis of competitiveness of the Visegrad Group. The aim of this thesis is to analyze the competitiveness of the Visegrad countries - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The countries will be examined in today's competitive environment within the Visegrad Group and the European Union. The analyze is based on data available from public sources and statistics. The work is divided into three chapters. The first part is devoted to the theoretical definition of competitiveness and methods of how to measure the competitiveness of the state. The second chapter introduces Visegrad Group and its common characteristics. The another part of the work is focused on the macroeconomic indicators - inflation, government debt and GDP per capita. The foreign trade and territorial and commodity structure of exports in the last ten years are also examined in this part. In the third chapter there is an analysis of the competitiveness based on investigation of labor productivity, labor costs, expenditures on research and development and tertiary education. In conclusion there is an evaluation of competitiveness of Visegrad Group based on the Global Competitiveness Index in 2011-2012.

Though the strategic importance of regional economic integration to multinational companies (MNC) has been researched extensively internationally, this concept has not been studied in South Africa. In fact, there is a growing nostalgia that with the South African Development Community (SADC) moving towards its set macroeconomic convergence targets; regional economic integration eventually leads to macroeconomic stabilisation. This ultimately becomes the root of growth in a region that has been severely affected by globalisation, financial crises, increasing government debt and budget deficit problems. This study, hence, tries to find out how the critical decisions of South African MNCs are made when operating within regional markets. Consequently, statistical econometric models were developed to test time-series data from 1980-2011 using the best (most efficient) linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) ordinary least square regression technique. An analysis was then done to investigate how South African firms have been able to gain maximum benefits by adopting the SADC as its major trading bloc in Africa. The study’s findings showed that the major barriers that impede MNCs of South African origin from penetrating these markets were custom duties, direct and indirect tariffs. It was observed that this would only be reduced by regional integration. Determined to critically interrogate the problems detailed in this research, three hypotheses were tested, analysed and subsequent interpretation of the findings revealed that South African MNCs contribute positively to regional economic growth and investment in the SADC. Furthermore, the study found out that although these factors were important, they were not the only variables that stimulated the competitiveness of South African MNCs in the SADC region. The literature review sections of this study found that the adoption of strategic management initiatives by MNCs improved the operation of transnational companies in South Africa. A comparison between the value of South African MNCs, as well as, other explanatory variables, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of both South Africa and the SADC using time series data for the period 1980-2011 indicated that there was a positive relationship between the contribution of MNCs to South Africa’s economy and the GDP of both South Africa and the SADC. This proved that there is a significant link between MNC growth and national/regional productivity. In conclusion, the study established that the findings of the literature review were theoretically in sync with the empirical analysis. Also, the outcome of this study concurred with the findings of similar research. In essence, regional trade arrangements are an increasingly important element of the global trade environment, of which the move by South Africa’s MNCs to operate in the SADC market was a positive one. Finally, the study found out that for these firms to be successful in the international business arena, business management decisions need to be made, only after a detailed strategic analysis of the significance of regional economic integration is considered. This integrative framework certainly determines the operational efficiency, survival and profitability of most MNCs that operate within the region. / Business Management / M.Admin. (Business Management (International Business))

Though the strategic importance of regional economic integration to multinational companies (MNC) has been researched extensively internationally, this concept has not been studied in South Africa. In fact, there is a growing nostalgia that with the South African Development Community (SADC) moving towards its set macroeconomic convergence targets; regional economic integration eventually leads to macroeconomic stabilisation. This ultimately becomes the root of growth in a region that has been severely affected by globalisation, financial crises, increasing government debt and budget deficit problems. This study, hence, tries to find out how the critical decisions of South African MNCs are made when operating within regional markets. Consequently, statistical econometric models were developed to test time-series data from 1980-2011 using the best (most efficient) linear unbiased estimator (BLUE) ordinary least square regression technique. An analysis was then done to investigate how South African firms have been able to gain maximum benefits by adopting the SADC as its major trading bloc in Africa. The study’s findings showed that the major barriers that impede MNCs of South African origin from penetrating these markets were custom duties, direct and indirect tariffs. It was observed that this would only be reduced by regional integration. Determined to critically interrogate the problems detailed in this research, three hypotheses were tested, analysed and subsequent interpretation of the findings revealed that South African MNCs contribute positively to regional economic growth and investment in the SADC. Furthermore, the study found out that although these factors were important, they were not the only variables that stimulated the competitiveness of South African MNCs in the SADC region. The literature review sections of this study found that the adoption of strategic management initiatives by MNCs improved the operation of transnational companies in South Africa. A comparison between the value of South African MNCs, as well as, other explanatory variables, and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of both South Africa and the SADC using time series data for the period 1980-2011 indicated that there was a positive relationship between the contribution of MNCs to South Africa’s economy and the GDP of both South Africa and the SADC. This proved that there is a significant link between MNC growth and national/regional productivity. In conclusion, the study established that the findings of the literature review were theoretically in sync with the empirical analysis. Also, the outcome of this study concurred with the findings of similar research. In essence, regional trade arrangements are an increasingly important element of the global trade environment, of which the move by South Africa’s MNCs to operate in the SADC market was a positive one. Finally, the study found out that for these firms to be successful in the international business arena, business management decisions need to be made, only after a detailed strategic analysis of the significance of regional economic integration is considered. This integrative framework certainly determines the operational efficiency, survival and profitability of most MNCs that operate within the region. / Business Management / M. Admin. (Business Management (International Business))