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This thesis focused on using a detailed structural evaluation of seven (three flexible and four composite) high performance in-service pavements designated as high-priority routes to verify the applicability of the Mechanistic Empirical (M-E) models to high performance pavements in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The structural evaluation included: determination of layer thicknesses (from cores, GPR and historical data), pavement condition assessment based on visual survey, estimation of layer moduli from FWD analysis as well as material characterization. One of the main objectives of this study was to utilize the results from the backcalculated moduli in order to predict the performance of this group of pavement structures using the M-E Design Guide Software. This allowed a quick verification of the performance prediction models used by comparing their outcome with the current condition. The in-depth structural evaluation of the three flexible and four composite pavements showed that all the sites are structurally sound. The investigation also confirmed that the use of GPR to determine layer thicknesses and the comparison with a minimum number of cores is a helpful tool for pavement structural evaluation. Despite some difficulties performing the backcalculation analysis for complex structures, the obtained results were considered reasonable and were useful in estimating the current structural adequacy of the evaluated structures. The comparison of the measured distresses with those predicted by the M-E Design Guide software showed poor agreement. In general, the predicted distresses were higher than the distresses actually measured. However, there was not enough evidence to determine whether this is due to errors in the prediction models or software, or because of the use of defaults material properties, specially for the AC layers. It must be noted that although an in-depth field evaluation was performed, only Level 3 data was available for many of the input parameters. The results suggest that significant calibration and validation will be required before implementation of the M-E Design Guide. / Master of Science

As the cost of designing and building new highway pavements increases and the number of new construction and major rehabilitation projects decreases, the importance of ensuring that a given pavement design performs as expected in the field becomes vital. To address this issue in other fields of civil engineering, reliability analysis has been used extensively. However, in the case of pavement structural design, the reliability component is usually neglected or overly simplified. To address this need, the current dissertation proposes a framework for estimating the reliability of a given pavement structure regardless of the pavement design or analysis procedure that is being used. As part of the dissertation, the framework is applied with the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) and failure is considered as a function of rutting of the hot-mix asphalt (HMA) layer. The proposed methodology consists of fitting a response surface, in place of the time-demanding implicit limit state functions used within the MEPDG, in combination with an analytical approach to estimating reliability using second moment techniques: First-Order and Second-Order Reliability Methods (FORM and SORM) and simulation techniques: Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube Simulation. In order to demonstrate the methodology, a three-layered pavement structure is selected consisting of a hot-mix asphalt (HMA) surface, a base layer, and subgrade. Several pavement design variables are treated as random; these include HMA and base layer thicknesses, base and subgrade modulus, and HMA layer binder and air void content. Information on the variability and correlation between these variables are obtained from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, and likely distributions, coefficients of variation, and correlation between the variables are estimated. Additionally, several scenarios are defined to account for climatic differences (cool, warm, and hot climatic regions), truck traffic distributions (mostly consisting of single unit trucks versus mostly consisting of single trailer trucks), and the thickness of the HMA layer (thick versus thin). First and second order polynomial HMA rutting failure response surfaces with interaction terms are fit by running the MEPDG under a full factorial experimental design consisting of 3 levels of the aforementioned design variables. These response surfaces are then used to analyze the reliability of the given pavement structures under the different scenarios. Additionally, in order to check for the accuracy of the proposed framework, direct simulation using the MEPDG was performed for the different scenarios. Very small differences were found between the estimates based on response surfaces and direct simulation using the MEPDG, confirming the accurateness of the proposed procedure. Finally, sensitivity analysis on the number of MEPDG runs required to fit the response surfaces was performed and it was identified that reducing the experimental design by one level still results in response surfaces that properly fit the MEPDG, ensuring the applicability of the method for practical applications. / text