No description available.

Memoria para optar al título de Ingeniero Civil / Chile continental se extiende a lo largo de 38º de latitud en dirección norte-sur, con una distancia aproximada de 4.200 km. lo que necesariamente determina diversas zonas con riesgo sísmico, variados climas, condiciones de habitabilidad y densidades poblacionales, con lo cual, un reporte homogéneo de la actividad sísmica es difícil de lograr. En consecuencia, si podemos cuantificar el movimiento del suelo a una cierta distancia de la región afectada que permita complementar el análisis de peligro sísmico constituye una herramienta valiosa, la cual podemos generar a través de la estimación de la intensidad de Mercalli (I) en función de la magnitud (Mw) y distancia hipocentral (Dh), que es el objetivo y motivación principal del presente estudio. Para estimar esta relación, se han utilizado correlaciones mediante el método de mínimos cuadrados, el cual presenta la dificultad de que la magnitud y la distancia tienen un grado de correlación, con lo que la estimación presenta sesgo. Hasta ahora, se ha supuesto que cada una de las variables independientes del método de regresión lineal estaba incorrelacionado con el término del error. En consecuencia, surge el problema cuando este supuesto no se cumple, generando dificultades en los modelos de ecuaciones simultáneas. Para los efectos del presente estudio, existe dependencia entre la Magnitud y la Distancia. La memoria a desarrollar aborda esta problemática a través de la utilización de un método de regresión de mínimos cuadrados en dos etapas, que permitirá estimar la intensidad de Mercalli (I), en función de la magnitud (Mw) y la distancia hipocentral (Dh).

Earthquakes are among natural disasters with significant damage potential / however it is possible to reduce the losses by taking several remedies. Reduction of seismic losses starts with identifying and estimating the expected damage to some accuracy. Since both the design styles and the construction defects exhibit mostly local properties all over the world, damage estimations should be performed at regional levels. Another important issue in disaster mitigation is to determine a robust measure of ground motion intensity parameters. As of now, well-built correlations between shaking intensity and instrumental ground motion parameters are not yet studied in detail for Turkish data. In the first part of this thesis, regional empirical Damage Probability Matrices (DPMs) are formed for Turkey. As the input data, the detailed damage database of the 17 August 1999 Kocaeli earthquake (Mw=7.4) is used. The damage probability matrices are derived for Sakarya, Bolu and Kocaeli, for both reinforced concrete and masonry buildings. Results are compared with previous similar studies and the differences are discussed. After validation with future data, these DPMs can be used in the calculation of earthquake insurance premiums. In the second part of this thesis, two relationships between the felt-intensity and peak ground motion parameters are generated using linear least-squares regression technique. The first one correlates Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) to Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) whereas the latter one does the same for Peak Ground Velocity (PGV). Old damage reports and isoseismal maps are employed for deriving 92 data pairs of MMI, PGA and PGV used in the regression analyses. These local relationships can be used in the future for ShakeMap applications in rapid response and disaster management activities.

The Mississippi River Valley, is hardly known as an earthquake zone, but may in fact be a natural disaster just waiting to happen. Historical records and paleoseismic investigations have shown that large magnitude earthquakes have occurred in the area and there are constantly microquakes all along the New Madrid Fault System. The inhabitants of the Midwest are living in a death trap so long society doesn’t preoperly prepare for earthquakes. The study presented here aims to prove that, as predicting earthquakes is difficult to the point of impossible, the only serious alternative is to reinforce existing buildings and infrastructure and make sure all new developments are seismically safe. The conclusion reached is, that although expensive, building earthquake safe and retrofitting existing buildings, is for the high risk areas by far cheaper than doing nothing when, not if, a new large magnitude earthquake occurs. For a city in the high risk area, the cost of retrofitting the current structures was 13 billion dollar to be compared with the 100 billion dollars in lost lives and properties of a worst case scenario.