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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

O impacto de polÃticas monetÃrias na relaÃÃo entre inflaÃÃo e variabilidade de preÃos relativos: evidÃncia empÃrica para o Brasil de 1995 a 2012 / The impact of monetary policy on the relationship between inflation and relative price variability: empirical evidence for Brazil 1995-2012

LÃvia Rabelo 25 August 2013 (has links)
CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / A avaliaÃÃo dos efeitos da inflaÃÃo na Variabilidade de PreÃos Relativos (VPR) à uma fonte de subsÃdios aos formuladores de polÃtica econÃmica no que se refere à tomada de aÃÃes preventivas contra possÃveis pressÃes inflacionÃrias, minimizando os custos em termos de variaÃÃo do produto e do emprego. Dessa forma, este trabalho visa verificar empiricamente o impacto da adoÃÃo de metas para inflaÃÃo (MI) na relaÃÃo entre inflaÃÃo e VPR na economia brasileira, durante o perÃodo de 1995 a 2012. Seguindo evidÃncias da literatura, foram estimados modelos onde tal relaÃÃo assume a forma linear com quebras estruturais e a forma quadrÃtica a fim de testar qual deles melhor se ajusta aos dados brasileiros. Baseado em Bai e Perron (1998, 2003), os modelos de regressÃo foram estimados tratando as datas de quebras como variÃveis desconhecidas, obtidas endogenamente, em julho de 1998 e novembro de 2002. Para o perÃodo analisado os resultados nÃo corroboram as evidÃncias do formato de U da relaÃÃo entre inflaÃÃo e VPR, sendo que o efeito marginal da inflaÃÃo sobre a VPR à positivo, embora sua magnitude seja reduzida apÃs a adoÃÃo das metas e ainda mais apÃs o ganho de credibilidade referente ao cumprimento das mesmas. Adicionalmente observou-se que a relaÃÃo entre a inflaÃÃo esperada e a VPR se enfraqueceu apÃs a adoÃÃo das metas, enquanto a inflaÃÃo nÃo esperada somente se tornou significativa a partir da adoÃÃo desta polÃtica. / The assessment of the inflation effects on the Relative Price Variability (RPV) is a source of subsidies for economic policymakers when it comes to taking preventive measures against possible inflationary pressures, thus minimizing the costs in terms of product variation and employment. Once exposed that, this work aims to empirically investigate the effects of inflation targeting (IT) adoption on the relationship between inflation and RPV in the Brazilian economy from 1995 to 2012. Based on the literature, two models were estimated in order to test which one best fits in the Brazilian data. In the first one, the relationship takes the linear shape, while in the other it is U-shaped. Following Bai and Perron (1998, 2003), the regression models were estimated treating the dates of breaks as unknown variable, which were endogenously obtained in July of 1998 and November of 2002. In the period analyzed, the results do not corroborate the evidence of the U-shaped relation between inflation and RPV, once the marginal effect of inflation on the RPV is positive, although its magnitude is reduced after the adopting of IT and even more after the adoption of measures that gave credibility to comply with them. Additionally it was observed that the expected inflation had its effect reduced on RPV after the IT adoption, while the unexpected inflation only becomes significant after the adoption of this policy.

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